Here we go- a BLIZZARD WATCH is up for southern CT, and a WINTER STORM WATCH is up for everyone else.
Well, here we go- a historic blizzard is on the way to our region with monster snow totals and very strong winds. I expect scattered power outages, well over a foot of snow, and whiteout conditions all day Tuesday. The east trend yesterday has stopped, and in fact has come back to the west a little. This is close to the worst possible scenario for us here in Connecticut. One model...the euro...is showing 2ft+ for pretty much the entire state. Although I do not necessarily buy that solution quite yet as the GFS is showing something else, it's entirely possible. That said, a reasonable forecast at this time of 15-30" with locally higher amounts is not unreasonable. To play it safe...I will go 16-25", which is about halfway between the GFS and Euro solutions. If the Euro is right...I would be going 2 to 3 feet...and if the GFS is right, I would be going 1 to 2 feet. Either way, it's an epic amount of snow for this time of year, and will be one that we remember for a long, long, long time. Eugene will be one to remember!!
^^^0z Euro which shows essentially the worst possible outcome for the storm in CT. Snowfall maps are finnicky, so you can add a few inches to these, and doing so would put a bullseye of over 2 feet in western CT. This model is putting out about 2" of liquid. Using a 10:1 ratio (which looks to be about right here), that is 20", but with banding, higher amounts are very possible.
What is really going to be a crucial factor here is where heavier bands set up. Someone could get 3-5" hour snowfall bands...and that will really cause them to fly by the snow forecasts.
As for timing, it's essentially an all day Tuesday type deal from about 2 AM to 2 AM Wednesday. We'll see what happens. I'll have the latest on Blizzard Eugene tomorrow morning.
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