3/11- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Frigid Weather to a Historic Blizzard

Good Saturday all-

Oh my goodness- is this going to be one to remember. Yes, it's cold this morning (and it will be tomorrow too). This is remarkable for mid-March, but it's nothing we haven't dealt with in January.

The models are coming into agreement on a path of the Tuesday system- and it's directly over the 40/70 benchmark. What does this mean for our area? Well...it's literally the worst possible path the storm could take. A track over the benchmark by a storm that will be the pressure equivalent of a category 2 hurricane will mean blizzard conditions and snow that will be measured in feet...and since this is currently suggested by the Euro and GFS and CMC models.

The result of this? A 24-30 hour long blizzard here in CT, with snowfall totals of generally 15-30" with locally 40" possible...in a scenario not unlike the Blizzard of 2013. Ouch, This looks like truly one for the ages, and I encourage people to be ready. By tomorrow, Blizzard Watches will likely go up for our area. I beg everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast. My thinking for my accumulation forecast is to expect around 2" as an average amount of liquid equivalent. Using a 10:1 ratio, this suggests 20 inches of snow. However, based on the dynamics of the storm, I am thinking more of a 12:1 ratio is possible. Which nets me 2ft...which is exactly in the middle of my forecast range. The problem with using this though is that models tend to not account for banding. In fact, they look similar to what they looked leading up to 2013, and the evolution is nearly identical. Thus, I think someone in New England could end up with 3.5" of liquid...or roughly 3.5 feet of snow (which would be 42"). Thus, forecasting 15-30" with up to 40" seems perfectly reasonable at this stage in the game, and I shall do so. Please keep an eye on this forecast- it could be one for the record books.

Hartford's all time record snowfall is 24" from the January 12-13, 2011 storm (WS Benedict), as they got dry slotted in 2013. This one could be very close indeed. Be prepared to be snowed in for several days as the clean up from this system is going to be very difficult and long.