SEVERE STORM WATCH

Good evening

This is my evening update on the current progress of Hurricane Joaquin as it approaches the Bahamas. I was all but ready to drop the severe storm watch for us when suddenly at 18z the models trended to the north and east significantly, with roughly one fourth of the models now showing a DelMarVa or New Jersey landfall. Thus, since the trend is your friend (though not in this case), I'll say that the storm is sufficiently more likely to come now than it was a few hours ago to maintain the watch. Note that a few miles is going to make a HUGE difference. The 0z model runs for New England are the most important in years. New data is coming in. Where currently modeled, NC/VA/DelMarVa would be a glancing blow with gusty wind and rain...a south trend could cause a total miss except for some showers....while a north trend could bring hurricane conditions to New England. To make matters worse, the Euro still shows an out to sea scenario, which, although highly unlikely, can't be fully ruled out.

As I said, watch the 0z runs tonight. They are key. Sadly, they come in at 11 or 12 midnight...so I'll be sleepin'!

I'll update you tomorrow morning. If models trend north, the watch will become a warning. If it stays where it is, it'll still be a watch, and if they trend south, I'll drop it. Let's see what happens tonight. Be ready!