6/30- Fine today as we say goodbye to June, severe tomorrow?

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be an absolutely beautiful day. albeit a bit warm for many people's taste. It's looking like the high 80s are in the offing for today, with perhaps a town or two in far northern Connecticut striking the 90 degree mark briefly during the afternoon hours. Tomorrow, however, I am concerned about severe weather as a cold front approaches at the perfect time from the west. Although I believe the highest risk will be just barely off to our west...I cannot rule out hail and damaging winds. Thankfully, there is no precipitation in the forecast until Tuesday, but that could be a soaker if things come together with the storm track. That's something I will be watching closely, but please be aware that it's not out of the realm of possibility that Tuesday is a complete washout.

In the tropics, no development is expected in the Atlantic, and the status of the low in the Pacific tht I discussed yesterday has not changed whatsoever.

Today in weather history- June 30, 1989- Winnfield, LA records 22.52" of rain in a 3 day period, and over 30" for the month of June. By comparison, the average annual rainfall at BDL is 46.16"...so nearly half of that fell in 3 days!

6/29- Wet

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be quite a bit wetter than I expect yesterday. The front has stalled out just barely to our east, and so rain showers will be prevalent through much of the day today, which is absolutely fantastic news as we really need the precip- most of the state is hovering at around 6" below normal for 2016. Some of these showers could be rather heavy, so bring an umbrella! As for tomorrow, I expect dryer weather and we'll lose at least some of the humidity, but not all of it- it's tough to get a low-humidity day here practically in July. When we say hello to the new month on Friday, it'll be showery again- similar to today, quite honestly. The rest of the weekend leading up to and including the 4th of July looks dry.

No development in the Atlantic is expected anytime soon

In the Pacific- That low I discussed yesterday is now by far the most likely system to date to become Agatha at some point in the coming week or so as it moves through favorable conditions and parallels the Mexican coastline. At the moment, it's too early to know whether it poses any threat to the Baja Peninsula.

Today in weather history- June 29, 1931- Monticello, FL reaches 109, the state record for Florida. Combined with the humidity they regularly experience there...yikes.

Also, June 29, 1987- Mt. Evans, CO manages to receive 6" of heavy snow. Although exceedingly rare, it's not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen as the highest elevations of Colorado probably only average 40-50 degree highs in the middle of summer. In fact...when I went to Rocky Mountain National Park in August...I experienced a heavy sleet event. Thus...if you like warm weather...the mountain peaks of Colorado are not the place to go!

6/28- Much needed rain

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be one of the worst days in quite a while, but that really isn't saying much. The temperatures will be in the high 70s or low 80s for the most part, but...showers are actually possible through the day today. The bulk of the rain though should be around midnight tonight as the actual cold front moves through, though it won't really do all that much. Tomorrow looks like mid-80s, as do Thursday and Friday. Friday may feature storms, but they will be highly scattered and should not be too big of a deal. A look at the 4th of July weekend suggests that it will be fantastic- 80s and sunny throughout!

In the Atlantic- No development is expected

In the Pacific- A low currently over Nicaragua has a pretty decent chance of developing about a week from now as it moves parallel to, but west of, the Mexican coastline.

Today in weather history- June 28, 1923- A large tornado strikes Sandusky, OH, then crosses Lake Erie and moves into Lorain. In all, 86 people are killed and $12 million (1923USD) in damage is done. If this occurred today...it would be far worse, because a major theme park named Cedar Point...which is located on the shores of Lake Erie in Sandusky...has caused the city to expand greatly through the years. Let's hope very much that tornadoes avoid the Sandusky area for generations to come.

6/27- Getting a Bit Wet

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be fine, albeit a bit warm for many people's taste- it's looking like mid-80s for us during the afternoon. For the weather itself, sunny skies should prevail for the day. As for tomorrow, the weather will finally give us some much needed water- showers are likely pretty much all day. It won't be heavy, but it'll be on and off through the day. A few thunderstorms containing a fair bit of heavier precip is possible, but I think most of our Tuesday will be just sprinkles. The rest of the week has some question marks, as models disagree about whether Wednesday will be wet or not. At the moment, I'd guess it will be similar to tomorrow...but of course it's hard to really know without model agreement. Thursday looks fine, but more showers are possible Friday night, setting up a beautiful 4th of July weekend!

There is no development expected in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins at this time.

Today in weather history- June 27, 1957- Hurricane Audrey makes its' final landfall in Louisiana, killing 390 people and doing $150 million (1957USD) in damage. Audrey was a category 4 hurricane upon final landfall...making this by far the strongest June hurricane on record. That it made landfall at peak intensity surely worsened the impacts...as it was attempting to become a cat 5 but ran out of time.

Also noteworthy- June 27, 1901- Tiller's Ferry, SC picks up a heavy shower of...fish! This typically happens in a strong thunderstorm that has produced a waterspout, as the fish will be lifted into the storm by the updrafts and then deposited on land somewhere...so this is not as unusual as you would think, but still...

6/24- Gorgeous for now

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!

Today is going to be a typical summer day in every sense of the word. We're going to be blessed with bright sunshine today, and temperatures that should hold in the low to mid 80s. All in all, that's about average for late June, and we should certainly enjoy it! The weekend looks dry as well, and when combined with temperatures that will generally be around 85, that's not all that bad. The rain returns on Tuesday, and beyond that a rather moist pattern looks to establish itself in New England, and in a far-too-early look at the holiday coming up, it looks rather moist. Take that with a cup of salt though- it will almost certainly change countless times between now and then!

In the Atlantic- A low pressure system over the Yucatan is going to try and pull a TS Danielle on us today, though it probably only has a one in four shot or so. If it does develop, it would be Earl (which you may remember from the 2010 season as a major hurricane that threatened New England for quite some time), and break a large variety of different records, but I will post those if it is in fact named later today.

In the Pacific- No development is expected in the next several days.

Today in weather history- June 24, 1924- A candidate for the "that was stupid!" awards occurs here, as six men at a rock quarry take shelter from a thunderstorm, which is a great idea about 99.99% of the time, but not when the building is full of dynamite. Naturally, lightning struck nearby, which ignited the dynamite, blowing up the building and killing all of them. One of the rare times that you are better off outside during a thunderstorm!

6/22- Complex Forecast

Good Wednesday all-

Today is one of those days as a meteorologist that you say what you think, bite your fingernails, pray, or do whatever you choose to make yourself less nervous. Here's what we do know- there will be rain tomorrow, the question is how much. It's extremely close between a few scattered showers...and pouring rain all day. At the moment, the models (and I) appear to be favoring the scattered shower solution. Thus, I think that we should be able to eek out without a total washout, but...don't bank on it quite yet. As we look beyond that, hot weather appears to be the norm for the weekend and early next week, as we approach 90 Saturday through Monday...but then a cold front moves through Tuesday night. If it moves through at the right time, that could produce severe weather, but it's too far out to know that for sure. Thankfully, that should knock temperatures back down to normal by the middle to end of next week as an active pattern comes to New England.

Both the Atlantic & Pacific are completely quiet at this time.

Please note that I am going to Fenway Park tonight and spending the night in Massachusetts. Thus, I will be unable to post tomorrow, so my next post will be Friday 6/24.

Today in weather history- June 22, 1947- Holt, MO records one foot of rain in forty-two minutes, establishing the world record for heaviest rainfall over that time period. It would later be tied in Hawaii, but this is amazing to think about...remember it usually takes a full day of rain here to produce an inch, so essentially it's a bit less than two weeks of straight rain falling in 42 minutes. Yikes!

6/21- Considerable Questions

Good Tuesday all-

I hate forecasts like this with a passion, and this is going to be, quite honestly, little more than guesswork for Thursday. The models are absolutely all over the place with some showing over an inch of rain and others suggesting partly cloudy conditions. Big help. Thankfully, today is easier to predict, as our rotating storms from earlier have moved out of the region (no tornadoes were reported, but they were rotating). Additionally, we can rely on some cool weather for late June. Now that summer is in full swing, we are looking at temps in the mid 80s today and getting progressively cooler as time goes on, bottoming out in the low 70s on Thursday. The good news though? There is no rain in the forecast except for Thursday. My gut says rain, but it's been wrong before, and certainly will be wrong again, so we kind of just have to wait and see. Note the differences below...


^ GFS model showing heavy rain all day on Thursday


 ^CMC showing no rain at all at the same time- greeeat

Today in weather history- June 21, 2005- Colorado Springs, CO picks up one foot of hail, causing the city to bring their snowplows out to clear the roads!

6/20- Half and Half

Good Monday all-

This will be the week of halves in every sense of the word- half will be hot, half will be cool, half will be dry, half will be wet. Today lies in the hot and dry category- we're going to get into the high 80s today as the sun should be out for much of the day today (though clouds likely will be increasing through the afternoon hours). By the early morning hours tonight, though, rain is likely to move in (along with thunderstorms) and they could be rather strong- so get ready to be woken up by rumbles of thunder. Tomorrow itself is the hottest day of the next 7 though- we should be near 90, although I think most of us come up a degree or two shy of that mark. Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with temps right around 80 and sunny skies. Thursday looks rather wet, but Friday looks very nice as well.

In the Atlantic- That low in the Bay of Campeche we were watching with a slim chance of development has, in fact, done just that and become Tropical Depression #4, and it is expected to become Tropical Storm Danielle later today, but I am not convinced this will happen as it is nearly inland over east Mexico. It really only has about another 8 hours or so to complete this achievement.
Models have also been consistently developing a tropical system near Florida on or near the fourth of July.

 *8 AM UPDATE- The hurricane hunters have discovered TD#4 is now indeed Tropical Storm Danielle, but it's right on the coastline and will be gone by tomorrow. Don't blink and you'll miss it. That said, it sneaks into the history books as the earliest 4th named storm ever recorded, surpassing 2012's Tropical Storm Debby by three days. For those who are interested, the earliest 5th named storm formed on July 11, 2005 when Tropical Storm Emily developed (it would later become a category 5 hurricane!)

In the Pacific- No development is expected anytime soon

Today is the summer solstice- it's finally here!!





Today in weather history- June 20, 1682- A strong tornado strikes our area, crossing Stratford, Milford, and New Haven before dissipating in Long Island Sound. How strong, however, will remain a mystery as we obviously have no reliable meteorology data from almost 400 years ago!

6/17- A Week About Nothing

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

Even better is that the weather will not be an issue today...tomorrow...Sunday...or, quite honestly, at any time in the next 7. The forecast remains virtually unchanged from yesterday, with a general rule that temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies- the only problem spot is some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. With temperatures approaching 90, they could be quite strong, so be aware of that. Otherwise, it's a great weekend to get out and enjoy, so by all means do so!

In the Atlantic- The odds of development in the Bay of Campeche have improved slightly since yesterday, but a 20% chance is still not exactly something to be freaking out over, so no worries at the current time.

In the Pacific- The low discussed yesterday has still not developed, and it is unlikely to do so unless it does so before conditions become unfavorable later today. I would deem that less than likely at the present.

Today in weather history- June 17, 1859- A very intriguing event occurs as infamously hot Santa Ana winds in California roast fruits on the windward facing plants in Santa Barbara. Talk about unique!

6/16- I'M BACK...Really Great Weather Too!

Good Thursday all-

I'm back from Hershey- I had a wonderful time- and I get a nice break in the weather this week also because this is one of the easiest forecasts I have had to make all year. There is only one chance of rain in the next week, and it does not come until Tuesday, and until then we're looking at generally mid-80s for temperatures and mostly sunny skies, although clouds will be around today and tomorrow. I wouldn't call today "cloudy" per say, but I think "mostly cloudy"...is probably a fair assessment as a large rainstorm misses us just a bit to our south. Otherwise...there really is not much to discuss. The only potential 90 degree day in the near future appears to be Monday.

In the Atlantic- A low may try to develop in the Bay of Campeche this week, but I honestly do not think it will succeed as it will be too close to land...the NHC agrees with me and gives it a paltry 10% chance of occurring.

In the Pacific- A low near Mexico has some chance to develop today but, even if it does, not only will it pose no threat to land, but it would die by the weekend. Thus...my concern for this one is practically zero. The only thing it may do is use the 'A' name from the list.

Today in weather history- June 16, 1944- A Sioux City, IA tornado takes one of the most bizarre paths you've ever heard of, sitting in one place for twenty minutes, then traveling northeast...making a u-turn...then a 3/4ths counterclockwise circle...then another 90 degree turn to the east. That would be a nightmare to forecast...but fortunately this is very rare.

It's a bit late of course, but thoughts and prayers remain with the city and people of Orlando after the tragedy Sunday morning.

6/10- Severe storms tomorrow, perfection today

Happy Friday everyone- we've made it!

The forecast from yesterday is going to hold- there really is no reason to change my thoughts. The only chance of rain in the next week comes tomorrow afternoon, where our area is under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather, the highest category that we usually get around here. This means that strong storms are likely, and everything that goes along with them, including hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes are within the realm of possibility. Just be glad it's coming on a Saturday! On a happier note, the rest of the week looks amazing, with 70s for the most part, with low 80s in a few areas likely.

Please note this will be my last post until Thursday June 16, because I will be in Hershey, Pennsylvania until then! :)

In the Atlantic & Pacific- Development is not expected until after my return.

Today in weather history- June 10, 1957- A truly bizarre event occurs as a chicken coop is lifted into the air by a dust devil in Yarmouth, Maine, is moved 25 feet, but is set down softly and right-side up, causing no damage and leaving the chickens unharmed. These type of weather events can do some really strange things!

6/9- Great Weather

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be an absolutely beautiful day with temperatures in the 60s and bright sunshine! Additionally, I believe there is only one chance of rain in the forecast and it lies almost precisely during the overnight hours of Saturday night and Sunday, so we will barely even notice it as we will be sleeping! Honestly...we will be hard pressed to duplicate this weather at any time of year. Highs have a legitimate chance to not even reach 80 during this stretch and...even if they do, they will just touch it. It's truly remarkable for mid-June, so go out and enjoy it!

In the Atlantic- A trough near Florida has a minuscule risk of development, but it almost certainly won't, so it's pretty safe to say the basin is quiet at this time.

In the Pacific- There is no tropical development expected in the next 5 days.

Today in weather history- June 9, 1953- The strongest and deadliest tornado in New England history strikes Worcester, MA, killing 93 people, and causing a half billion dollars in damage all on its' own. The rating on the Fujita scale is a matter of some dispute, as it is officially classified as a very high end F4, but many people would suggest that is was an F5 based on the damage in Worcester. Regardless of its' exact rating, it was a very bizarre event, and we certainly hope to never repeat it again in our lifetimes.

6/8- More Storms

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be much cooler, but we're again facing the risk of storms- in fact, they may be even more likely today than they were yesterday. Highs will struggle to even reach 70 degrees today, but that SEE TEXT risk of severe weather could dog any outdoor plans you have today, particularly between the hours of, say, 1 and 4. After that, we'll clear things out and see temperatures fall even further- it's mid 60s for tomorrow- before we finally warm things up somewhat for Friday. Unfortunately, much of the weekend looks rather moist at this time. Incredibly, however...it seems very unlikely we will see 80...in the foreseeable future, which is a remarkable achievement indeed for the month of June!

In the Atlantic- Colin has died off the coast of the Carolinas, and there are no areas that are likely to become Danielle anytime soon.

In the Pacific- TD 1-E has made landfall in Mexico without ever having reached tropical storm statues, so we're still waiting on Agatha, and it'll be a fairly long one as development is unlikely anytime soon.

Today in weather history- June 8, 1953- The worst tornado for the state of Michigan strikes downtown Flint, killing 116 people. The storm was half a mile in width and destroyed 200 houses on one road, which in some cases wiped out entire families. This is what can happen without warning- or if a tornado strikes a major downtown area...and shows why we have to be vigilant at all times with these storms.

6/7- Strong Storms Today

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a pretty nice day, but unfortunately there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight- in fact, for the first time this year, we have a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER- the primary threats include strong winds and large hail. I cannot even say with confidence that there will not be tornadoes!! It certainly is a possibility- not huge, and they wouldn't be strong, but...it wouldn't shock me to see one. The key is whether the atmosphere is unstable enough, and recent trends have suggested that it probably will be. As for temperatures, we're looking at the mid-80s, but tomorrow and Thursday look truly special with highs in the high 60s and partly sunny skies, although some showers and storms will certainly be in the vicinity tomorrow. Not everyone will get wet, but small hail etc. is still possible. Thursday and Friday look dry, but the weekend looks very unlikely to be that way- thunderstorms are very likely on both days.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Colin has made its' final landfall in the Big Bend region yesterday with 50mph wind and spawned a tornado in Jacksonville...which in itself is rather noteworthy. It now lies just offshore of the Carolinas, and some strengthening is possible, but it doesn't really matter because it's going out to sea at this time.

In the Pacific- Tropical Depression One-E formed unexpectedly yesterday about 100 miles south of the Mexican coast, but the system is expected to die out today without ever having become a tropical storm...Agatha will likely have to wait a bit longer to be used.

Today in weather history- June 7, 1816- Remember how yesterday we discussed the "year without a summer"? Well...it really began on this day as Boston recorded highs in the 40s and flurries(!!!). Danville, VT gets a whopping two feet of the white stuff!

6/6- Showery week ahead

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be just fine, as the showers we experienced in the overnight hours clear the region to the east, which should leave us with partly sunny skies and boiling heat- highs could approach 90 in parts of Connecticut today. Tomorrow and Wednesday, I cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms- though these will be scattered in nature and not overly strong as there is no real trigger mechanism in the upper levels. Thursday looks amazing as temperatures will be in the 60s(!!) and perfect partly sunny skies- very fall like- it'll feel like September. Friday looks nice as well, but the first part of the weekend looks somewhat wet.

In the Atlantic- The low in the Gulf of Mexico has become Tropical Storm Colin, the 3rd named storm of the Atlantic season. Winds are currently 50mph, and some slight strengthening is possible, but I find it highly unlikely it will become a hurricane because the wind shear will remain fairly strong as time goes on today before the system makes a final landfall in northwest Florida today about halfway between Tampa and Tallahassee. The biggest story will be the rain there though- up to 8" is possible. It is worth noting that by forming on June 5, Colin is by far the earliest 3rd named storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, surpassing an unnamed storm in 1887.

In the Pacific- The first major forecasting error of the Pacific season has died in the basin without having ever become a tropical depression. A low near Acapulco has a slim shot at development before it moves inland, but I deem it to be rather unlikely.

Today in weather history- June 6, 1816- The infamous "year without a summer" begins as although temps reach 92 on this day...they fall some 50 degrees, as the high on 6/7 is all of 41 degrees. This can happen only in special circumstances, such as a volcano eruption or a meteor strike. In 1816, Mt. Tambora's eruption caused temperatures to be rediculously cold worldwide, but it was most felt in the northern US and Europe.

6/3- Friday is Moist

HAPPY FRIDAY ALL-

Today is going to be rather lousy, I'm afraid. It won't be too awful- highs will be in the 70s and we'll have some breaks of sunshine but...we'll also get a fair amount of rain as showers move through pretty much all day today. A rain shower at this exact moment is moving through the Danbury area and advancing towards the Route 8 corridor...and it's strong enough that it should completely cross the state in the next hour or two, getting everyone a bit wet. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely tonight, though they won't be too bad- it's just a SEE TEXT risk. Tomorrow looks good, but Sunday could be a very serious problem as we have a MARGINAL risk of severe weather but...a slight risk lies just to our south (and I mean just- NYC is in it). Just a touch further south of that (SW Jersey) lies in an ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms. As a result, I cannot rule out even tornadoes on Sunday, but the greatest threat (for now) looks to just barely miss us to the south. Regardless of the severity, there will be a period of heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening, so go ahead and cancel those outdoor plans now. Thankfully, the majority of next week looks dry excepting scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and Friday. It also appears to feature mostly near to slightly below average temperatures.

In the Atlantic- Bonnie surprisingly regenerated yesterday morning off the coast of the Carolinas and, although it could somewhat strengthen, it poses no threat to land. However...the odds of development in the Gulf next week have increased since yesterday...and the target appears to be Western Florida on Tuesday. The NHC is giving this a 50/50 chance but quite honestly...I think that's conservative...it's more likely than not that TS Colin will form this weekend in my opinion.

In the Pacific- So much for that guaranteed development of Agatha as the system inexplicably weakened severely yesterday and is now moving into an area that is not very favorable for development. It still has a decent chance, but it's not nearly as likely as it was!

Today in weather history- June 3, 1959- Salden, KS manages to pick up 18" of hail, yes, 18"!! It hails for a whopping 85 minutes nonstop, causes $500 million in damage. The temperature plummets from 80 to 38 degrees as a result--that's probably a combination of a strong cold front and the hail itself cooling the environment that it's falling in!

If Sunday's severe threat increases, I will post here in the morning of that day. Enjoy the weekend regardless!!

6/2- Washout Moved Up To Sunday...Nice Saturday At Least

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be an absolutely gorgeous day- a true top 5 day in every sense of the word- partly sunny skies with temps in the 70s! It really does not get much better than that- and it will quite honestly be similar tomorrow as well but...there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. They won't be strong- just your run of the mill SEE TEXT risk, but they could dampen your day. Saturday looks like the warmest day of the next 7 but not by much- we're only talking low 80s with partly sunny skies. Our Monday washout has moved up a bit, and now lies primarily from about noon Sunday to noon Monday- my old school has a major event on Sunday that could be impacted greatly by this, so I hope they have backup plans ready! If they don't it won't be pretty...in any event, much of next week looks dry, with partly sunny skies and upper 70s being the norm, which I would imagine is very close to average for early June.

In the Atlantic- Our extraordinarily active start shows no signs of slowing down, as Bonnie is trying to redevelop off the coast of North Carolina. Even if it does though...it poses no threat to land as it scoots out to sea to our south. Another low is developing in the western Caribbean, and the Euro has jumped on board with the GFS of developing a tropical cyclone and sending it off towards Florida by about Tuesday as seen below


^ GFS showing Tropical Storm Colin hitting Florida on Tuesday. The Euro solution is similar.

 If this does occur, it would be historic- it would be the earliest 3rd named storm to ever form in the Atlantic basin, surpassing 2012, when Hurricane Chris formed on June 10.

In the Pacific- The same low we've been talking about for several days is nearing being officially declared a tropical cyclone- but we are missing a surface circulation. Once that occurs, we will say hello to Agatha...likely before the weekend. Fortunately, it poses no threat to land whatsoever

Today in weather history- June 2, 1985- In a bizarre lightning story, a bolt of lighting strikes a metal framed bed in a home with a married couple sleeping in it. The lightning kills the husband, but leaves the wife completely unharmed. This is surprisingly frequent- lightning remains what I believe to be the single most unpredictable kind of weather in existence in the world today, but it behaves in extremely fascinating ways, and this is no exception.

6/1- Quieter Weather for Now

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a beautiful day- actually it will probably be among the 10 or 11 best days we get this year. Highs will be in the low 80s with bright sunshine, and there is no chance of rain today at any point. In fact, tomorrow will be exceedingly similar to today as well! Friday contains our next chance of rain- but it's scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours...meaning your outdoor plans will be just fine for 80% of the day. The weekend itself looks extremely pleasant with 70 degree temperatures and partly sunny conditions prevalent, but the tradeoff is that the vast majority of next week looks absolutely miserable as it will be raining a very great deal, especially Monday, which looks to be a total washout in every sense of the word.

In the Atlantic- No development is expected anytime soon. There is an area that I am watching in the western Caribbean that has some chance of development, but it would likely be more than 5 days from now (we're talking the Monday or Tuesday timeframe), so we have tons of time to watch it.

On that note, today...June 1, 2016...marks the beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season...which will last until the end of November. This year's list of names is Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, and Walter. This list was last used in 2010- you likely remember Hurricane Earl, which posed a very serious threat to Connecticut for quite a bit of time in that year. Names new to the list this year are Ian, replacing Igor (a category 4 that hit Bermuda) and Tobias, replacing Tomas (a category 2 that wandered through the Caribbean slowly causing a great deal of damage). The first two names on the list this year have already been used- Alex was a January hurricane in the Azores, and we know Bonnie was just used, so Colin is next on the list.

As for what I expect this year...yikes. This has the potential to be an unusually active Atlantic season. It will almost certainly be the most active season since 2012...and I am going to go with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This would get us to the "S" name, and would be a similar result to 2010...which is a very close analog to this year, and is similar to the North Carolina State University prediction, with the NHC coming in just a bit less aggressively. The greatest risk of landfall this year appears to focus particularly strongly in the Gulf, Florida, and New England as the water temperatures are warmer than average in the West Atlantic/Gulf and the developing La Nina should help reduce shear across much of the basin. This could be a very bad hurricane season- all the pieces of the puzzle are in place- so you may want to prepare a touch more than usual. You have time though- the season doesn't really ramp up until the end of July.