Today is going to be a beautiful day- actually it will probably be among the 10 or 11 best days we get this year. Highs will be in the low 80s with bright sunshine, and there is no chance of rain today at any point. In fact, tomorrow will be exceedingly similar to today as well! Friday contains our next chance of rain- but it's scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours...meaning your outdoor plans will be just fine for 80% of the day. The weekend itself looks extremely pleasant with 70 degree temperatures and partly sunny conditions prevalent, but the tradeoff is that the vast majority of next week looks absolutely miserable as it will be raining a very great deal, especially Monday, which looks to be a total washout in every sense of the word.
In the Atlantic- No development is expected anytime soon. There is an area that I am watching in the western Caribbean that has some chance of development, but it would likely be more than 5 days from now (we're talking the Monday or Tuesday timeframe), so we have tons of time to watch it.
On that note, today...June 1, 2016...marks the beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season...which will last until the end of November. This year's list of names is Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, and Walter. This list was last used in 2010- you likely remember Hurricane Earl, which posed a very serious threat to Connecticut for quite a bit of time in that year. Names new to the list this year are Ian, replacing Igor (a category 4 that hit Bermuda) and Tobias, replacing Tomas (a category 2 that wandered through the Caribbean slowly causing a great deal of damage). The first two names on the list this year have already been used- Alex was a January hurricane in the Azores, and we know Bonnie was just used, so Colin is next on the list.
As for what I expect this year...yikes. This has the potential to be an unusually active Atlantic season. It will almost certainly be the most active season since 2012...and I am going to go with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This would get us to the "S" name, and would be a similar result to 2010...which is a very close analog to this year, and is similar to the North Carolina State University prediction, with the NHC coming in just a bit less aggressively. The greatest risk of landfall this year appears to focus particularly strongly in the Gulf, Florida, and New England as the water temperatures are warmer than average in the West Atlantic/Gulf and the developing La Nina should help reduce shear across much of the basin. This could be a very bad hurricane season- all the pieces of the puzzle are in place- so you may want to prepare a touch more than usual. You have time though- the season doesn't really ramp up until the end of July.
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