Wednesday, August 31, 2016
8/31- SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER- Just when you thought you had seen it all
Good Wednesday all-
There is truly no point in beating around the bush here. Remember how yesterday I said the GFS had a weird idea featuring a stalled TD9 just off the shore but that seemed unlikely? That actually now seems like the most likely scenario. Thus, I am forced to issue a rare SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER for Sunday night into Monday for TD9's potential impacts.
Before we go into more detail though, let me just say there is a thunderstorm threat this afternoon as a cold front will move through the region- there is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today, and showers are almost sure to occur later this afternoon. Nothing too awful by any stretch, but it helps us by booting TD8 out to the southeast of us.
Of far greater concern is the system currently in the Gulf, Tropical Depression 9. It will be named either Hermine or Ian today (depending on when TD8 achieves tropical storm status) and generally intensify rapidly as it heads for the northern Big Bend region of Florida. As it does, it will be pushed across the peninsula from west to east. Ordinarily, this would be an absolute slam-dunk out to sea forecast. Unfortunately, this time is different. A trough (an area of stormy weather) will attempt to capture the storm out to the east, but there's a high pressure there. Thus, all it can do is drag it north and not east, bringing the system directly up the coast to very near Connecticut by the end of the weekend. As for exactly what to expect...it's far too early to know because everything from partly cloudy to a fully blown hurricane remain on the table (these two are both extremely unlikely for now- the top result is somewhere in the middle). My best guess is pretty similar to the current GFS scenario, which is a pretty rotten deal for us here-
^^ GFS depicting a tropical storm sitting very near Long Island, featuring 30mph winds sustained.
If the above scenario verifies, it would be a pretty rotten deal for the shoreline. Not only would there be 30mph sustained winds, but there would surely be many gusts over 50, with surge being a concern as the counterclockwise flow blows the water into the Sound. The Euro is slightly further east, but paints a similar picture-
The difference between the two would be lower surge concerns in the European model, but with a stronger system winds would be about the same as the GFS.
There are many models out there that show different solutions, one of them is a major hurricane in the same place as the GFS (worst case scenario for us) and another shows a tropical storm landfalling in Boston from the east (that has NEVER happened). Whenever a system is blocked, weird and unpredictable things happen, so it is also possible to get a CT landfall. As we are only about 5 days away, it is worthwhile to have your hurricane plans ready! Even if the system doesn't impact us, you will have far less to worry about if one further down the road decides CT is a great place to visit.
There is truly no point in beating around the bush here. Remember how yesterday I said the GFS had a weird idea featuring a stalled TD9 just off the shore but that seemed unlikely? That actually now seems like the most likely scenario. Thus, I am forced to issue a rare SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER for Sunday night into Monday for TD9's potential impacts.
Before we go into more detail though, let me just say there is a thunderstorm threat this afternoon as a cold front will move through the region- there is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today, and showers are almost sure to occur later this afternoon. Nothing too awful by any stretch, but it helps us by booting TD8 out to the southeast of us.
Of far greater concern is the system currently in the Gulf, Tropical Depression 9. It will be named either Hermine or Ian today (depending on when TD8 achieves tropical storm status) and generally intensify rapidly as it heads for the northern Big Bend region of Florida. As it does, it will be pushed across the peninsula from west to east. Ordinarily, this would be an absolute slam-dunk out to sea forecast. Unfortunately, this time is different. A trough (an area of stormy weather) will attempt to capture the storm out to the east, but there's a high pressure there. Thus, all it can do is drag it north and not east, bringing the system directly up the coast to very near Connecticut by the end of the weekend. As for exactly what to expect...it's far too early to know because everything from partly cloudy to a fully blown hurricane remain on the table (these two are both extremely unlikely for now- the top result is somewhere in the middle). My best guess is pretty similar to the current GFS scenario, which is a pretty rotten deal for us here-
^^ GFS depicting a tropical storm sitting very near Long Island, featuring 30mph winds sustained.
If the above scenario verifies, it would be a pretty rotten deal for the shoreline. Not only would there be 30mph sustained winds, but there would surely be many gusts over 50, with surge being a concern as the counterclockwise flow blows the water into the Sound. The Euro is slightly further east, but paints a similar picture-
The difference between the two would be lower surge concerns in the European model, but with a stronger system winds would be about the same as the GFS.
There are many models out there that show different solutions, one of them is a major hurricane in the same place as the GFS (worst case scenario for us) and another shows a tropical storm landfalling in Boston from the east (that has NEVER happened). Whenever a system is blocked, weird and unpredictable things happen, so it is also possible to get a CT landfall. As we are only about 5 days away, it is worthwhile to have your hurricane plans ready! Even if the system doesn't impact us, you will have far less to worry about if one further down the road decides CT is a great place to visit.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
8/30- Getting chillier but the Tropics Remain the Story
Good Tuesday all-
What a boring forecast- it remains the same as yesterday, with the exception that Friday does look a bit warmer than it did at times yesterday. Now, I'll go with mid-70s for most people. With the exception of a scattered thunderstorm or two...we can expect partly sunny conditions and 80s for temperatures...literally as far as the eye can see into the future.
The big story remains in the tropics though. The outer banks of North Carolina are under tropical storm warnings this AM as TD8 passes either just east of or directly over that region...whilst TD9 has the potential to be a big impact for Florida's Big Bend region. It will be very, very close to hurricane status on landfall. If it achieves this...it will somehow become the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years. Its' life beyond that is more uncertain, as the GFS wants to bring it towards New England in about a week...but that seems unlikely for now. That said, there is support for this solution from the Canadien and Japanese models, so we cannot rule it completely out. I think the bigger threat to the eastern US is Invest 92L off Africa, which will likely become Hurricane Julia...the pattern looks mighty interesting in a couple weeks.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Madeline has undergone unexpectedly rapid intensification and has achieved category 4 status as it makes a beeline towards the Big Island of Hawaii. Although it may just skim the island to the south, a direct hit is equally likely. If that occurs, it would be the biggest hurricane to hit Hawaii in 24 years...my thoughts go out to them, especially because category 3 Hurricane Lester is heading for the northern end of the island paradise as well!
Today in weather history- August 30, 1776- George Washington is able to use a foggy morning on Long Island to successfully retreat from a major loss, and the British cannot pursue him due to unfavorable winds. Imagine if that had been a different outcome!
What a boring forecast- it remains the same as yesterday, with the exception that Friday does look a bit warmer than it did at times yesterday. Now, I'll go with mid-70s for most people. With the exception of a scattered thunderstorm or two...we can expect partly sunny conditions and 80s for temperatures...literally as far as the eye can see into the future.
The big story remains in the tropics though. The outer banks of North Carolina are under tropical storm warnings this AM as TD8 passes either just east of or directly over that region...whilst TD9 has the potential to be a big impact for Florida's Big Bend region. It will be very, very close to hurricane status on landfall. If it achieves this...it will somehow become the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years. Its' life beyond that is more uncertain, as the GFS wants to bring it towards New England in about a week...but that seems unlikely for now. That said, there is support for this solution from the Canadien and Japanese models, so we cannot rule it completely out. I think the bigger threat to the eastern US is Invest 92L off Africa, which will likely become Hurricane Julia...the pattern looks mighty interesting in a couple weeks.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Madeline has undergone unexpectedly rapid intensification and has achieved category 4 status as it makes a beeline towards the Big Island of Hawaii. Although it may just skim the island to the south, a direct hit is equally likely. If that occurs, it would be the biggest hurricane to hit Hawaii in 24 years...my thoughts go out to them, especially because category 3 Hurricane Lester is heading for the northern end of the island paradise as well!
Today in weather history- August 30, 1776- George Washington is able to use a foggy morning on Long Island to successfully retreat from a major loss, and the British cannot pursue him due to unfavorable winds. Imagine if that had been a different outcome!
Monday, August 29, 2016
8/29- Hyperactive Tropics to begin the School Year
Good Monday all-
And for many-
Today is going to be just fine, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and partly sunny. Similar conditions can be expected tomorrow and Wednesday as well. The big change, however, comes Wednesday night when a cold front will move through- and this one is extremely strong and temperatures will be knocked into the low to mid-70s for Friday...and we never fully rebound with temperatures struggling to 80 beyond that. It seems this one may be the start of the autumn, which in the meteorological world begins this Thursday, 9/1.
The big story in the weather world today though is the hyperactive Atlantic basin. Personally, I define hyperactive as having three or more systems all at the same time, which is pretty rare in the Atlantic, but we have it now. Major Hurricane Gaston is up to 115mph, the first cat 3 of the Atlantic season, and both Tropical Depressions 8 and 9 have formed right near the coastline. Tropical Depression 8 was a total shock, as it formed suddenly off of the outer banks, which are now under Tropical Storm Watches this morning, and 99L...after over a week of waiting...has finally achieved Tropical Depression status near Key West and is expected to strengthen and hook east across the big bend as a mid range to strong tropical storm on Thursday. The interesting thing is the race for names- the winner between these two will be Hermine, and the loser will be Ian. Also, a low near the Cape Verdes is going to becoming Tropical Storm Julia in about a week, and this one really bears watching in the western Atlantic. This one could be a pretty decent size hurricane and be one of those rare Cape Verde storms that makes it completely across the ocean. Also, Major Hurricane Lester is spinning in the Pacific harmlessly for now, but it poses a threat to north Hawaii in about 5 days. A much more important threat to that state is Hurricane Madeline, a category 1 making a beeline for the Big Island...which should get hit on Wednesday. Thus, the US could experience 3 named systems on 3 days in a row- TD 8 tomorrow, Madeline Wednesday, and TD 9 Thursday!
Today in weather history- August 29, 2011- Hurricane Irene finally dies after tearing a path of devastation from the outer banks to Vermont, causing $16.5 billion in damage and killing some 61 people, including 10 people right here in Connecticut. We all have some powerful memories from that storm, and it is one that will live for generations to come!
And for many-
Today is going to be just fine, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and partly sunny. Similar conditions can be expected tomorrow and Wednesday as well. The big change, however, comes Wednesday night when a cold front will move through- and this one is extremely strong and temperatures will be knocked into the low to mid-70s for Friday...and we never fully rebound with temperatures struggling to 80 beyond that. It seems this one may be the start of the autumn, which in the meteorological world begins this Thursday, 9/1.
The big story in the weather world today though is the hyperactive Atlantic basin. Personally, I define hyperactive as having three or more systems all at the same time, which is pretty rare in the Atlantic, but we have it now. Major Hurricane Gaston is up to 115mph, the first cat 3 of the Atlantic season, and both Tropical Depressions 8 and 9 have formed right near the coastline. Tropical Depression 8 was a total shock, as it formed suddenly off of the outer banks, which are now under Tropical Storm Watches this morning, and 99L...after over a week of waiting...has finally achieved Tropical Depression status near Key West and is expected to strengthen and hook east across the big bend as a mid range to strong tropical storm on Thursday. The interesting thing is the race for names- the winner between these two will be Hermine, and the loser will be Ian. Also, a low near the Cape Verdes is going to becoming Tropical Storm Julia in about a week, and this one really bears watching in the western Atlantic. This one could be a pretty decent size hurricane and be one of those rare Cape Verde storms that makes it completely across the ocean. Also, Major Hurricane Lester is spinning in the Pacific harmlessly for now, but it poses a threat to north Hawaii in about 5 days. A much more important threat to that state is Hurricane Madeline, a category 1 making a beeline for the Big Island...which should get hit on Wednesday. Thus, the US could experience 3 named systems on 3 days in a row- TD 8 tomorrow, Madeline Wednesday, and TD 9 Thursday!
Today in weather history- August 29, 2011- Hurricane Irene finally dies after tearing a path of devastation from the outer banks to Vermont, causing $16.5 billion in damage and killing some 61 people, including 10 people right here in Connecticut. We all have some powerful memories from that storm, and it is one that will live for generations to come!
Friday, August 26, 2016
8/26- Stormy
Happy Friday everyone!
Today is going to be awful in every sense of the word- precipitation is highly likely during the afternoon with thunderstorms. Some of these could be severe, although the SPC is only giving us a SEE TEXT risk...it wouldn't surprise me to see that get upgraded to a marginal risk, considering the conditions. Otherwise, the forecast is unchanged from yesterday for the weekend and the next 7- though Invest 99L suddenly needs to be watched a bit more closely based on the most recent trends as they suggest a jog up the east coast after the system crosses Florida.
Other than that, Gaston continues to pose no threat to land, and therefore is not of great concern. Of a bigger worry is that there will probably be a monster hurricane north of the Carribbean in about 10 days, but again that's so far out there...things will change! Also, Pacific Tropical Storm Lester poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 26, 1883- Krakatoa Volcano in Indonesia erupts and plunges the world into a volcanic winter, causing bright sunsets and lowering the temperature of the planet by a full degree- not an easy feat! Also worth noting is that this killed 36,000 people, but it would be far, far greater a catastrophe if that occurred today
Today is going to be awful in every sense of the word- precipitation is highly likely during the afternoon with thunderstorms. Some of these could be severe, although the SPC is only giving us a SEE TEXT risk...it wouldn't surprise me to see that get upgraded to a marginal risk, considering the conditions. Otherwise, the forecast is unchanged from yesterday for the weekend and the next 7- though Invest 99L suddenly needs to be watched a bit more closely based on the most recent trends as they suggest a jog up the east coast after the system crosses Florida.
Other than that, Gaston continues to pose no threat to land, and therefore is not of great concern. Of a bigger worry is that there will probably be a monster hurricane north of the Carribbean in about 10 days, but again that's so far out there...things will change! Also, Pacific Tropical Storm Lester poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 26, 1883- Krakatoa Volcano in Indonesia erupts and plunges the world into a volcanic winter, causing bright sunsets and lowering the temperature of the planet by a full degree- not an easy feat! Also worth noting is that this killed 36,000 people, but it would be far, far greater a catastrophe if that occurred today
Thursday, August 25, 2016
8/25- An Odd Twist to 99L's Tale
Good Thursday all-
Today will be hot and partly sunny, as I discussed yesterday- highs will be in the upper 80s today with partly sunny skies throughout- and the rain chances have increased tomorrow, but still any showers will be very light and scattered in nature. Besides that...I see no change to our near-term weather, so I won't bore you with details.
What I will give you, however, is information on a bizarre change to the potential track of soon-to-be Hermine. Both the Euro and the GFS now suggest a path across or just south of Miami as a weak system, strengthening into a moderate system that hits the FL panhandle, and then moves almost due east, putting it just off the coast of South Carolina. If it gets there, then it could redevelop. The Euro now attempts to pull it north in the general direction of our area, but a high blocks it out. That said...it's close...see below
^ The European model from 0z (2:30 this morning) showing category 2 Hurricane Hermine near Virginia after crossing Florida
What is key in the above picture is that dark green area north of Maine. Notice the tilt towards the southwest? That keeps the system out on this run. However...if that high is just a bit further east than previously modeled, the exact opposite will happen- causing it to get blocked from going out and getting banked into New England from SE to NW. The GFS, though, shows something completely different at this time
^ GFS model run from this morning showing weak Tropical Storm Hermine near Virginia
There are a few things that jump out at me from this run. First off, the storm in this case is essentially stalled out, which is different than the Euro. Additionally, notice the high forming in the central US (the dark red). Over the next few frames, this expands greatly and forces the system south. That, to me, seems extremely unlikely as that would be very rare. In fact...the Euro doesn't even develop a high in this area in the first place. Also worth noting though is that the dark green high that was in Maine on the Euro is well to the east. In this general upper air pattern..the storm should move generally north or northeast but it would have a limit to how far it could go east. Thus, this pattern would be significantly more alarming to me than the Euro should it come. Keep in mind though...this is ten or more days away! This system has been a blast to forecast, and I still have no idea what it is going to do!
Additionally, note that Tropical Storm Lester formed in the Pacific, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 25, 1940- The temperatures in New Jersey fall below freezing for the first (and to date only) time in the month of August. That's hard to do, and I can only guess that there was an extremely strong high pressure moving into the region from the northwest, causing strong winds from the north to send the temps through the floor
Today will be hot and partly sunny, as I discussed yesterday- highs will be in the upper 80s today with partly sunny skies throughout- and the rain chances have increased tomorrow, but still any showers will be very light and scattered in nature. Besides that...I see no change to our near-term weather, so I won't bore you with details.
What I will give you, however, is information on a bizarre change to the potential track of soon-to-be Hermine. Both the Euro and the GFS now suggest a path across or just south of Miami as a weak system, strengthening into a moderate system that hits the FL panhandle, and then moves almost due east, putting it just off the coast of South Carolina. If it gets there, then it could redevelop. The Euro now attempts to pull it north in the general direction of our area, but a high blocks it out. That said...it's close...see below
^ The European model from 0z (2:30 this morning) showing category 2 Hurricane Hermine near Virginia after crossing Florida
What is key in the above picture is that dark green area north of Maine. Notice the tilt towards the southwest? That keeps the system out on this run. However...if that high is just a bit further east than previously modeled, the exact opposite will happen- causing it to get blocked from going out and getting banked into New England from SE to NW. The GFS, though, shows something completely different at this time
^ GFS model run from this morning showing weak Tropical Storm Hermine near Virginia
There are a few things that jump out at me from this run. First off, the storm in this case is essentially stalled out, which is different than the Euro. Additionally, notice the high forming in the central US (the dark red). Over the next few frames, this expands greatly and forces the system south. That, to me, seems extremely unlikely as that would be very rare. In fact...the Euro doesn't even develop a high in this area in the first place. Also worth noting though is that the dark green high that was in Maine on the Euro is well to the east. In this general upper air pattern..the storm should move generally north or northeast but it would have a limit to how far it could go east. Thus, this pattern would be significantly more alarming to me than the Euro should it come. Keep in mind though...this is ten or more days away! This system has been a blast to forecast, and I still have no idea what it is going to do!
Additionally, note that Tropical Storm Lester formed in the Pacific, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 25, 1940- The temperatures in New Jersey fall below freezing for the first (and to date only) time in the month of August. That's hard to do, and I can only guess that there was an extremely strong high pressure moving into the region from the northwest, causing strong winds from the north to send the temps through the floor
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
8/24- Hotter, Dry, Trouble for FL and Gulf
Good Wednesday all-
Well, there really isn't much to talk about this week...actually there is, but it's not here! Today...and tomorrow....and Friday...and Saturday...etc...will be partly sunny with highs in the 80s, with the only exception being on Friday, when I think most areas will hit 90, and there is a small chance of a PM pop up sprinkle. Otherwise...we look absolutely golden- the 80s next week will be the low 80s and feature quite a bit less humidity than the last few have. Remember, we are now one week away from meteorological autumn! I cannot believe it- time flies!
With that said, the potential of a really big weather story exists to our south, towards our friends living in Florida and the Gulf Coast. The development potential of 99L...which we have been watching for several days...has increased and now poses a moderate threat to east FL as a hurricane potentially. I have to say, though, that my biggest concern right now is Louisiana. Here is the Euro from yesterday afternoon-
^^^12z euro yesterday showing a category 4/5 landfall in Alabama
The concern here is that it is on a very dangerous path potentially. You hate to bring up the "K" word for obvious reasons, but there are similarities to both the meteorological pattern and especially the track indicated here- they are virtually identical. Of course, things can and will change between now and final landfall in the Gulf, but frankly I see a path where this kind of event shown above is possible...so it is worth noting...especially because this morning's run is quite similar...
^^^A very similar story is told by the 0z as the 12z...yikes
Today in weather history- August 24, 2005- Ironically, Tropical Storm Katrina forms in the far eastern Bahamas, and begins its' devastating path towards New Orleans. Katrina would make landfall in south Florida as a weak hurricane the next day, before emerging into the Gulf and the rest is, of course, historic and tragic. I could write an entire paper on this storm easily but...I'll leave it there
Well, there really isn't much to talk about this week...actually there is, but it's not here! Today...and tomorrow....and Friday...and Saturday...etc...will be partly sunny with highs in the 80s, with the only exception being on Friday, when I think most areas will hit 90, and there is a small chance of a PM pop up sprinkle. Otherwise...we look absolutely golden- the 80s next week will be the low 80s and feature quite a bit less humidity than the last few have. Remember, we are now one week away from meteorological autumn! I cannot believe it- time flies!
With that said, the potential of a really big weather story exists to our south, towards our friends living in Florida and the Gulf Coast. The development potential of 99L...which we have been watching for several days...has increased and now poses a moderate threat to east FL as a hurricane potentially. I have to say, though, that my biggest concern right now is Louisiana. Here is the Euro from yesterday afternoon-
The concern here is that it is on a very dangerous path potentially. You hate to bring up the "K" word for obvious reasons, but there are similarities to both the meteorological pattern and especially the track indicated here- they are virtually identical. Of course, things can and will change between now and final landfall in the Gulf, but frankly I see a path where this kind of event shown above is possible...so it is worth noting...especially because this morning's run is quite similar...
^^^A very similar story is told by the 0z as the 12z...yikes
Today in weather history- August 24, 2005- Ironically, Tropical Storm Katrina forms in the far eastern Bahamas, and begins its' devastating path towards New Orleans. Katrina would make landfall in south Florida as a weak hurricane the next day, before emerging into the Gulf and the rest is, of course, historic and tragic. I could write an entire paper on this storm easily but...I'll leave it there
Monday, August 22, 2016
8/22- An Incredible Stretch of Weather
Good Monday all-
All I can say is "wow" with regards to the forecast for the next several days- they are going to be the best days in a long time! We're going to struggle to reach the 80s today- something that you haven't heard me say in a very, very long time! I think most of us do get there...but some shoreline and higher elevation communities could indeed get stuck in the upper 70s! Even better, tomorrow looks fantastic as well, with only a degree or two warmer than today- and the rest of the week will be in the mid-80s. We can expect partly sunny skies at all times, except for Friday night and Saturday morning, when a cold front moves through the area and will bring the temperatures back down to where we are today. No matter what...this is the best weather week...by far...we have had this month...so enjoy it!
The Atlantic remains very active, as although Fiona died, it'll be replaced by Gaston today. The forecast for this one is pretty straightforward...it's heading for the central Atlantic where it will rapidly intensify into a pretty extreme major hurricane as it approaches but likely stays just barely east of Bermuda. It's far too close for comfort though- if Bermuda does get hit, let's just say it will be bad. We're talking a cat 4 potentially...yikes. Additionally, a wave is also pretty likely to develop near the Bahamas. That puts us in a vulnerable spot, but we're way too far out to know exactly what will transpire with this one. In the Pacific, Kay continues to spin harmlessly, but there will be no new development anytime in the near future.
Today in weather history- August 22, 1992- True history occurs, as category 5 Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Homestead, FL, killing 65 people and doing $26.5 billion in damage, making this the 4th most damaging tropical system in US history. Also worth noting is that Andrew is one of only 3 category five hurricanes to ever make landfall in the United States. The others are the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys...and of course, 1969's Hurricane Camille.
All I can say is "wow" with regards to the forecast for the next several days- they are going to be the best days in a long time! We're going to struggle to reach the 80s today- something that you haven't heard me say in a very, very long time! I think most of us do get there...but some shoreline and higher elevation communities could indeed get stuck in the upper 70s! Even better, tomorrow looks fantastic as well, with only a degree or two warmer than today- and the rest of the week will be in the mid-80s. We can expect partly sunny skies at all times, except for Friday night and Saturday morning, when a cold front moves through the area and will bring the temperatures back down to where we are today. No matter what...this is the best weather week...by far...we have had this month...so enjoy it!
The Atlantic remains very active, as although Fiona died, it'll be replaced by Gaston today. The forecast for this one is pretty straightforward...it's heading for the central Atlantic where it will rapidly intensify into a pretty extreme major hurricane as it approaches but likely stays just barely east of Bermuda. It's far too close for comfort though- if Bermuda does get hit, let's just say it will be bad. We're talking a cat 4 potentially...yikes. Additionally, a wave is also pretty likely to develop near the Bahamas. That puts us in a vulnerable spot, but we're way too far out to know exactly what will transpire with this one. In the Pacific, Kay continues to spin harmlessly, but there will be no new development anytime in the near future.
Today in weather history- August 22, 1992- True history occurs, as category 5 Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Homestead, FL, killing 65 people and doing $26.5 billion in damage, making this the 4th most damaging tropical system in US history. Also worth noting is that Andrew is one of only 3 category five hurricanes to ever make landfall in the United States. The others are the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys...and of course, 1969's Hurricane Camille.
Friday, August 19, 2016
8/19- Heat Returns, Major Tropical Trouble?
Happy FRIDAY everyone!
It's another scorcher out there today! Highs will be approaching 90 once again, but thankfully the humidity won't be too high and there is no threat of precipitation. In fact, the only rain threat in the next week comes Sunday night into Monday with a cold front that will actually be powerful enough to send temps plummeting into the upper 70s or low 80s- yes, that's BELOW AVERAGE! The problem is getting there- we have several hot and humid days to get through to get there- upper 80s and low 90s will be prevalent accompanied by humid conditions over the weekend, with predominantly party to mostly sunny conditions.
The tropics are very complex today, so I'll divide them by basin
In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Kay has formed as expected, but it poses no threat to land and thus is of little concern.
In the Atlantic- Wow, where to start? Tropical Storm Fiona packs 45mph winds this morning, but it poses no threat to land as it weakens and harmless goes to the notorious hurricane graveyard that is the north central Atlantic. That said, there is one wave right now that has the potential to do something truly incredible and potentially be a devastating hurricane somewhere. We're up to a 50-50 chance of development- in actuality I think it's much higher- and the models are extraordinarily bullish on it. I don't mean to alarm people here, as all it is right now is potential, but...this could be a storm to remember. Additionally, another one will likely develop behind it, but that appears to be another one for the fishes. The next two names on the name list are Gaston and Hermine.
DISCLAIMER- I am about to post something that I probably shouldn't as it is maybe a 1% chance at best, but is still amazing to look at (I've never seen it before). PLEASE do not take this literally until I say otherwise...which is unlikely to ever happen.
That is very alarming and shows that the potential does exist for this to be one for the ages for someone. Do not focus on location- if you look at the date, it's still 13 days away!
Today in weather history- August 19, 1991- Hurricane Bob makes final landfall in Rhode Island, causing $1.5 billion in damage and killing 17. For some twenty years, this would be the last hurricane to have a direct impact on the region, prior to 2011's Hurricane Irene.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
8/18- Surprisingly Heavy Rain
Good Thursday all-
It's rather wet this morning, and frankly I am quite surprised. None of the models really picked up on these showers, but hey it happens. Fortunately, these should clear up fairly soon and the rest of the day should be dry except for a scattered PM storm or two- but the concern is limited and there is only a SEE TEXT risk. Otherwise, we can expect temperatures in the upper 80s and partly sunny conditions- that's not too bad, all things considered! Tomorrow will be better than today with similar conditions except for the rain threat. The upcoming weekend looks fairly awful, with highs in the low 90s, pretty good humidity, and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. By next week, it appears we may actually dip to the low 80s a few times...that will be super refreshing!
Tropical Depression #6 has become Tropical Storm Fiona in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes, but it appears to pose no threat to land at this time. Another tropical wave is going to try to develop over the weekend and into next week. It may take a bit of time to do so, but the next name on the list is Gaston. Additionally, a low in the East Pacific is probably about to become Tropical Storm Kay as it essentially parallels the Baja Peninsula.
Today in weather history- August 18, 1983- Hurricane Alicia strikes Texas, causing $3 billion in damage (1983USD) and killing 13, but injuring 2000. This is one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin when inflation is taken into account!
It's rather wet this morning, and frankly I am quite surprised. None of the models really picked up on these showers, but hey it happens. Fortunately, these should clear up fairly soon and the rest of the day should be dry except for a scattered PM storm or two- but the concern is limited and there is only a SEE TEXT risk. Otherwise, we can expect temperatures in the upper 80s and partly sunny conditions- that's not too bad, all things considered! Tomorrow will be better than today with similar conditions except for the rain threat. The upcoming weekend looks fairly awful, with highs in the low 90s, pretty good humidity, and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. By next week, it appears we may actually dip to the low 80s a few times...that will be super refreshing!
Tropical Depression #6 has become Tropical Storm Fiona in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes, but it appears to pose no threat to land at this time. Another tropical wave is going to try to develop over the weekend and into next week. It may take a bit of time to do so, but the next name on the list is Gaston. Additionally, a low in the East Pacific is probably about to become Tropical Storm Kay as it essentially parallels the Baja Peninsula.
Today in weather history- August 18, 1983- Hurricane Alicia strikes Texas, causing $3 billion in damage (1983USD) and killing 13, but injuring 2000. This is one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin when inflation is taken into account!
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
8/17- Growing Warmer again
Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be pretty cool compared to previous days (although that really isn't saying much) with highs in the mid 80s but...the humidity will not be nearly as bad as this weekend, so that is a relief! The thunderstorms promised for yesterday didn't really materialize- I was quite surprised but we should really be grateful because had they formed...we could have had very strong tornadoes with the setup yesterday- it was the best for a major outbreak in years- but we dodged the bullet. Fortunately, nothing like that is likely over the next several days...the only threats of thunderstorms seem to lie tomorrow (a slim chance), Sunday, and Monday (better chances). The latter two threats though...are too early to know much about so we shall have to wait and see what happens.
Tropical Depression Six- and soon to be Tropical Storm Fiona- has formed in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands, and it is generally heading for Bermuda, though whether or not it gets there is very debatable as a dip in the jet stream could well grab the system before it has much of an impact whatsoever.
Additionally, development is possible in the Pacific later this week as a low moves west of the Baja- if it does, the next name on the Pacific's list is Kay.
Today in weather history- August 17, 1969- Hurricane Camille makes its' final historic landfall along the Mississippi coast. The strongest ever US landfall, Camille and its' 170mph sustained winds cause $1.2 billion (1969USD) in damage, kills 256 people, and devastates coastal communities on its' way to becoming one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the United States.
Today is going to be pretty cool compared to previous days (although that really isn't saying much) with highs in the mid 80s but...the humidity will not be nearly as bad as this weekend, so that is a relief! The thunderstorms promised for yesterday didn't really materialize- I was quite surprised but we should really be grateful because had they formed...we could have had very strong tornadoes with the setup yesterday- it was the best for a major outbreak in years- but we dodged the bullet. Fortunately, nothing like that is likely over the next several days...the only threats of thunderstorms seem to lie tomorrow (a slim chance), Sunday, and Monday (better chances). The latter two threats though...are too early to know much about so we shall have to wait and see what happens.
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_sEcjq9AaNsDt0LJQgpKArQHsPUJ4Y8fEbqcuogKeTvaiUeIppuw742xC5IhV5SDkEdyDMrK7oa_6ZL93cwfVQbGLIljQGhR8Dcc3j_Lq-TkwgR55Sy3Ch_YsM_xPKdg32jC4prJdcj-GeS_AGxBDeomfiX5o1pmfNw=s0-d) |
| ^ Tropical Depression Six is generally heading for Bermuda |
Additionally, development is possible in the Pacific later this week as a low moves west of the Baja- if it does, the next name on the Pacific's list is Kay.
Today in weather history- August 17, 1969- Hurricane Camille makes its' final historic landfall along the Mississippi coast. The strongest ever US landfall, Camille and its' 170mph sustained winds cause $1.2 billion (1969USD) in damage, kills 256 people, and devastates coastal communities on its' way to becoming one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the United States.
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
8/16- Extreme Weather Possible Today
Good Tuesday all-
There is a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER for the entire state.
Well, this is going to be fun today...a warm front is stalled out to our west and there is strong wind shear present in the lower levels. What does that mean? Well, it means strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today...and they include the possibility of tornadoes. Actually, for the first time in a long time, I am more concerned about the risk of tornadoes than otherwise damaging winds...though hail is also quite likely in some of the stronger cells that develop throughout the day today. These showers will be possible at any time, but are especially likely during the afternoon and evening hours, beginning around 1 or 2. The good news is that after today...we have no threat of precipitation until Saturday. As for temperatures, they will remain in the mid to upper 80s throughout the next 7 days.
A low near the Cape Verde Islands is about to become Tropical Storm Fiona, but it does appear heading generally off to the dead zone that is the central Atlantic...but you never know, and given its' location it always pays to keep an eye on it as Cape Verde type storms tend to be the most powerful variety. The Pacific remains quiet at this time, though some development off Mexico is possible at the end of the week
Today in weather history- August 16, 1909- San Bernadino, CA begins a remarkable stretch of dry weather, as no rain falls on this day...or any other until May 6, 1912!! That's nearly 3 years without a single drop of rain...and you thought our drought was bad!
There is a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER for the entire state.
Well, this is going to be fun today...a warm front is stalled out to our west and there is strong wind shear present in the lower levels. What does that mean? Well, it means strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today...and they include the possibility of tornadoes. Actually, for the first time in a long time, I am more concerned about the risk of tornadoes than otherwise damaging winds...though hail is also quite likely in some of the stronger cells that develop throughout the day today. These showers will be possible at any time, but are especially likely during the afternoon and evening hours, beginning around 1 or 2. The good news is that after today...we have no threat of precipitation until Saturday. As for temperatures, they will remain in the mid to upper 80s throughout the next 7 days.
A low near the Cape Verde Islands is about to become Tropical Storm Fiona, but it does appear heading generally off to the dead zone that is the central Atlantic...but you never know, and given its' location it always pays to keep an eye on it as Cape Verde type storms tend to be the most powerful variety. The Pacific remains quiet at this time, though some development off Mexico is possible at the end of the week
Today in weather history- August 16, 1909- San Bernadino, CA begins a remarkable stretch of dry weather, as no rain falls on this day...or any other until May 6, 1912!! That's nearly 3 years without a single drop of rain...and you thought our drought was bad!
Monday, August 15, 2016
8/15- Improvement at last!
Good Monday all-
It's finally over! The humidity has broken this morning and, while it will be hot...it won't feel anywhere near as bad as it has the last few days...thank goodness! In fact, after tomorrow...the rest of the week looks amazing! Another cold front will be passing through southern New England tomorrow, accompanied by thunderstorms, but other than that...the rest of the week will be partly sunny and feature temps in the mid-80s. The weekend does look a bit messy though, with showers and thunderstorms likely for both days, though temps should remain moderate as we start to really wind down the meteorological summer, which concludes at the end of this month.
A low near Cape Verde could develop slightly, but I do not believe it will be anything significant in the long run. No development is expected in the Pacific anytime in the near future.
Today in weather history- August 15, 1787- A tornado hits Wethersfield, CT, killing two people and damaging many other surrounding communities. This twister...estimated at EF4 intensity...is part of a massive tornado outbreak in New England, which featured 3 tornadoes in Connecticut...and is likely the biggest single day tornado outbreak in our state's history, especially when intensity is taken into account.
It's finally over! The humidity has broken this morning and, while it will be hot...it won't feel anywhere near as bad as it has the last few days...thank goodness! In fact, after tomorrow...the rest of the week looks amazing! Another cold front will be passing through southern New England tomorrow, accompanied by thunderstorms, but other than that...the rest of the week will be partly sunny and feature temps in the mid-80s. The weekend does look a bit messy though, with showers and thunderstorms likely for both days, though temps should remain moderate as we start to really wind down the meteorological summer, which concludes at the end of this month.
A low near Cape Verde could develop slightly, but I do not believe it will be anything significant in the long run. No development is expected in the Pacific anytime in the near future.
Today in weather history- August 15, 1787- A tornado hits Wethersfield, CT, killing two people and damaging many other surrounding communities. This twister...estimated at EF4 intensity...is part of a massive tornado outbreak in New England, which featured 3 tornadoes in Connecticut...and is likely the biggest single day tornado outbreak in our state's history, especially when intensity is taken into account.
Friday, August 12, 2016
8/12- Thank Gosh for AC!
Happy Friday everyone!
A HEAT ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut, but a rare EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH is up for tomorrow and Sunday
Today is going to be like yesterday except...slightly worse! I mean it...we're going to the 90s today, but heat index values will likely be near 105 for pretty much everyone. Like yesterday, showers and thunderstorms are very likely this afternoon...and some of them could be strong as there is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather today and Sunday...with a see text risk tomorrow. The worst day of this nightmarish weather is likely tomorrow, when the heat index could be near 110. This is serious and potentially fatal heat if disrespected...so please do not make that mistake! Sunday looks better, but the heat fully comes to an end on Monday.
Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins remain quiet.
Today in weather history- August 12, 1955- Hurricane Connie makes its' final landfall in North Carolina, dropping prolific amounts of rain and causing extreme flooding, especially when Hurricane Diane follows less than a week later!
A HEAT ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut, but a rare EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH is up for tomorrow and Sunday
Today is going to be like yesterday except...slightly worse! I mean it...we're going to the 90s today, but heat index values will likely be near 105 for pretty much everyone. Like yesterday, showers and thunderstorms are very likely this afternoon...and some of them could be strong as there is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather today and Sunday...with a see text risk tomorrow. The worst day of this nightmarish weather is likely tomorrow, when the heat index could be near 110. This is serious and potentially fatal heat if disrespected...so please do not make that mistake! Sunday looks better, but the heat fully comes to an end on Monday.
Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins remain quiet.
Today in weather history- August 12, 1955- Hurricane Connie makes its' final landfall in North Carolina, dropping prolific amounts of rain and causing extreme flooding, especially when Hurricane Diane follows less than a week later!
Thursday, August 11, 2016
8/11- Discussion on a surprise tornado...hot today
Good Thursday all-
A HEAT ADVISORY is up for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties.
Today is going to be absolutely horrendous- temps will be in the 90s with oppressive humidity and thus...treat today like it will be in the 100s. As for thunderstorms, there is a SEE TEXT risk today, but that is not my primary concern. Yes, today probably will feature some of these but it will not be the top story. That said, I was kinda expecting that to be true yesterday and look where it got me...
Although the NWS has not confirmed it, the official Steve report (:P) can confirm that a tornado hit North Haven yesterday at about 1:30 PM as a video has surfaced of the storm that shows a very blatantly obvious tornado spinning up near Montowese Ave. This was completely unexpected, but there was some low level wind shear and the air was kinda unstable. It was really a pretty pedestrian setup though, but...well the weather can do strange things sometimes, and that is exactly what it did. It's the first tornado to hit Connecticut since July 27, 2014 in Wolcott.
No development is expected in the Atlantic or Pacific basin.
Today in weather history- August 11, 1944- The all-time record high of 101 occurs in Burlington, VT.
Today also marks the end of the official "dog days of summer", which began July 3, and are denoted by the time of year when the dog star Sirius rises with the sun. It certainly will feel like them today though!
A HEAT ADVISORY is up for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties.
Today is going to be absolutely horrendous- temps will be in the 90s with oppressive humidity and thus...treat today like it will be in the 100s. As for thunderstorms, there is a SEE TEXT risk today, but that is not my primary concern. Yes, today probably will feature some of these but it will not be the top story. That said, I was kinda expecting that to be true yesterday and look where it got me...
Although the NWS has not confirmed it, the official Steve report (:P) can confirm that a tornado hit North Haven yesterday at about 1:30 PM as a video has surfaced of the storm that shows a very blatantly obvious tornado spinning up near Montowese Ave. This was completely unexpected, but there was some low level wind shear and the air was kinda unstable. It was really a pretty pedestrian setup though, but...well the weather can do strange things sometimes, and that is exactly what it did. It's the first tornado to hit Connecticut since July 27, 2014 in Wolcott.
No development is expected in the Atlantic or Pacific basin.
Today in weather history- August 11, 1944- The all-time record high of 101 occurs in Burlington, VT.
Today also marks the end of the official "dog days of summer", which began July 3, and are denoted by the time of year when the dog star Sirius rises with the sun. It certainly will feel like them today though!
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
8/10- The storms are here
Good Wednesday all-
There is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today- and I think that might be too low, personally, as thunderstorm activity will be on the rise for much of the day. Some areas did get some rain this morning- including me as I got into a heavier shower for a time- and this will only get more widespread as the day wears on. As for temperatures, we're heading to nearly...but probably not over...90 today. The next few days look similar to this and, as unfortunate as that may seem at first glance, we really need the rain, so no complaining allowed!
In a truly bizarre event for this time of year, there are no tropical threats in either the Atlantic or Pacific.
Today in weather history- August 10, 1882- Similar to Monday's fact, Sandusky, OH (which is a tourist trap today due to a major amusement park on the north side of town) records heavy snow for a four minute time period. Trust me, if this happened today, you'd hear about it!
There is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today- and I think that might be too low, personally, as thunderstorm activity will be on the rise for much of the day. Some areas did get some rain this morning- including me as I got into a heavier shower for a time- and this will only get more widespread as the day wears on. As for temperatures, we're heading to nearly...but probably not over...90 today. The next few days look similar to this and, as unfortunate as that may seem at first glance, we really need the rain, so no complaining allowed!
In a truly bizarre event for this time of year, there are no tropical threats in either the Atlantic or Pacific.
Today in weather history- August 10, 1882- Similar to Monday's fact, Sandusky, OH (which is a tourist trap today due to a major amusement park on the north side of town) records heavy snow for a four minute time period. Trust me, if this happened today, you'd hear about it!
Monday, August 8, 2016
8/8- A Week of Misery
Good Monday all-
No point in beating around the bush here- this week looks like a totally miserable week of weather unless for some reason you like heat and humidity. For the majority of our week, highs will be nearly or above 90 degrees with intense humidity and afternoon thunderstorms. The two exceptions? Today and tomorrow but the problem is that it's the thunderstorm threat that does not exist today and tomorrow- it'll still be hot but a bit less humid than it will be later in the week. I'd recommend you do your outdoor activities today if you have them- you do NOT want to be out there from Wednesday to Sunday.
Yesterday, I attended my first PGA Tour event and saw the lowest round ever recorded in PGA Tour history- it was absolutely surreal and warrants a mention in here
Tropical Storm Javier formed yesterday and is almost right on top of the Baja Peninsula. It should make landfall at about 55mph, and is not going to do much except disrupt the lives of those living there. The Atlantic, in an event extremely rare for August, is entirely quiet and no development is expected for a long time.
Today in weather history- August 8, 1882- Up to 6" of snow falls on a ship in Lake Michigan, and some shoreline communities also report flurries. Yeah...that must have been a really nasty surprise.
No point in beating around the bush here- this week looks like a totally miserable week of weather unless for some reason you like heat and humidity. For the majority of our week, highs will be nearly or above 90 degrees with intense humidity and afternoon thunderstorms. The two exceptions? Today and tomorrow but the problem is that it's the thunderstorm threat that does not exist today and tomorrow- it'll still be hot but a bit less humid than it will be later in the week. I'd recommend you do your outdoor activities today if you have them- you do NOT want to be out there from Wednesday to Sunday.
Yesterday, I attended my first PGA Tour event and saw the lowest round ever recorded in PGA Tour history- it was absolutely surreal and warrants a mention in here
Tropical Storm Javier formed yesterday and is almost right on top of the Baja Peninsula. It should make landfall at about 55mph, and is not going to do much except disrupt the lives of those living there. The Atlantic, in an event extremely rare for August, is entirely quiet and no development is expected for a long time.
Today in weather history- August 8, 1882- Up to 6" of snow falls on a ship in Lake Michigan, and some shoreline communities also report flurries. Yeah...that must have been a really nasty surprise.
Friday, August 5, 2016
8/5- Hot, but getting stormy then better
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-
Today is going to be a real boiler, so stay in the AC as temps are heading off to the 90s once again, with humidity quite high as well. The skies will be sunny most of the day, though a few puffy clouds are likely as well, especially in the PM hours. The big weather story of the next countless days is going to be the severe thunderstorms tomorrow, which are extremely likely and will impact the majority of towns in the state. The most likely scenario is a line of horrid weather around 2-5 PM with hail and winds being the main threats, and the SPC has placed us under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather. After that though, not only does the weather dry out, but the humidity drops, so the 84 degree weather on Sunday will feel absolutely amazing, and it is by far the best weather day of the week to come.
Today is the opening ceremony of the Games of the XXXI Olympiad in Rio. The weather for the opening ceremony appears to be mostly sunny with temperatures in the high 50s or lower 60s.
Tropical Storm Earl has unexpectedly held its' intensity at 40mph and has arrived in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, so tropical storm warnings are up for a bizarre portion of the Mexican coastline along the southern tip of that bay. It will make its' final landfall today. Also, it appears a system is going to try developing in the northern Gulf early next week- the next name on the Atlantic list is Fiona (yes, like the Shrek character...). Also, Tropical Storm Ivette in the Pacific poses no threat to land whatsoever as it harmlessly floats around in the central part of the basin. Lastly, Earl will likely redevelop in the Pacific basin after crossing Mexico. Although this is unusual...it's not unheard of by any stretch. If it does so, then the system will be named freshly off the Pacific list, in this case Javier.
Today in weather history- August 5, 1843- A remarkable cloudburst near Philadelphia drops a whopping 16" of rain in 3 hours, and spawns a number of small tornadoes as well! The flooding kills 19 people and destroys 30 barges on the Schuylkill River.
Today is going to be a real boiler, so stay in the AC as temps are heading off to the 90s once again, with humidity quite high as well. The skies will be sunny most of the day, though a few puffy clouds are likely as well, especially in the PM hours. The big weather story of the next countless days is going to be the severe thunderstorms tomorrow, which are extremely likely and will impact the majority of towns in the state. The most likely scenario is a line of horrid weather around 2-5 PM with hail and winds being the main threats, and the SPC has placed us under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather. After that though, not only does the weather dry out, but the humidity drops, so the 84 degree weather on Sunday will feel absolutely amazing, and it is by far the best weather day of the week to come.
Today is the opening ceremony of the Games of the XXXI Olympiad in Rio. The weather for the opening ceremony appears to be mostly sunny with temperatures in the high 50s or lower 60s.
Tropical Storm Earl has unexpectedly held its' intensity at 40mph and has arrived in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, so tropical storm warnings are up for a bizarre portion of the Mexican coastline along the southern tip of that bay. It will make its' final landfall today. Also, it appears a system is going to try developing in the northern Gulf early next week- the next name on the Atlantic list is Fiona (yes, like the Shrek character...). Also, Tropical Storm Ivette in the Pacific poses no threat to land whatsoever as it harmlessly floats around in the central part of the basin. Lastly, Earl will likely redevelop in the Pacific basin after crossing Mexico. Although this is unusual...it's not unheard of by any stretch. If it does so, then the system will be named freshly off the Pacific list, in this case Javier.
Today in weather history- August 5, 1843- A remarkable cloudburst near Philadelphia drops a whopping 16" of rain in 3 hours, and spawns a number of small tornadoes as well! The flooding kills 19 people and destroys 30 barges on the Schuylkill River.
Thursday, August 4, 2016
8/4- Nothing Exciting=Good for Most!
Good Thursday all-
First off, sorry for not updating yesterday, I was at Citi Field on Tuesday night and slept long enough that anything I wrote would have been useless as plans would have already been made, etc.
On that note, today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the mid-80s and bright sunshine throughout other than a few of the typical fluffy cumulus. To be honest, I am not going to waste your time with typing much more. The only chance for precipitation in the next week or more is on Saturday, which will likely feature a line of showers and thunderstorms. More rain could be about a week away from now, but that's so far out there, let's not focus on that. The rest of the way, we're going to have highs in the 80s and partly sunny conditions.
Tropical Storm Earl became Hurricane Earl just before landfall in Belize, which it did this morning as a category 1 storm with 85mph winds, the first hurricane landfall in the country since 2010's Hurricane Richard. This morning, it's maintaining hurricane intensity (barely) inland pretty much over Belize City. The system will pass through southeast Mexico and ultimately end up in the East Pacific basin, where it could develop(!)- if it does, it would be given a new name- in this case Javier- as it heads towards a direct and final landfall on the Baja Peninsula about a week from now- way out there!. Tropical Storm Ivette is in the basin as well, and it could become a hurricane in time, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 4, 1980- After a ridiculous (and record) forty-two consecutive 100 degree days, Dallas fails to reach the mark. The month of July that year had a mean temperature of 92 degrees, far and away the record for that location.
First off, sorry for not updating yesterday, I was at Citi Field on Tuesday night and slept long enough that anything I wrote would have been useless as plans would have already been made, etc.
On that note, today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the mid-80s and bright sunshine throughout other than a few of the typical fluffy cumulus. To be honest, I am not going to waste your time with typing much more. The only chance for precipitation in the next week or more is on Saturday, which will likely feature a line of showers and thunderstorms. More rain could be about a week away from now, but that's so far out there, let's not focus on that. The rest of the way, we're going to have highs in the 80s and partly sunny conditions.
Tropical Storm Earl became Hurricane Earl just before landfall in Belize, which it did this morning as a category 1 storm with 85mph winds, the first hurricane landfall in the country since 2010's Hurricane Richard. This morning, it's maintaining hurricane intensity (barely) inland pretty much over Belize City. The system will pass through southeast Mexico and ultimately end up in the East Pacific basin, where it could develop(!)- if it does, it would be given a new name- in this case Javier- as it heads towards a direct and final landfall on the Baja Peninsula about a week from now- way out there!. Tropical Storm Ivette is in the basin as well, and it could become a hurricane in time, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 4, 1980- After a ridiculous (and record) forty-two consecutive 100 degree days, Dallas fails to reach the mark. The month of July that year had a mean temperature of 92 degrees, far and away the record for that location.
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
8/2- Stormy morning
Good Tuesday all-
Quite honestly, I was caught severely off-guard by the thunderstorms this morning- I did not expect them to linger as long as they did, and it caused them to impact the morning commute. Hey, you learn something every time you get the forecast wrong though, so you take it in stride and move on...and now we begin a very nice stretch of weather, with the exception of Friday- which looks hot and purely miserably humid- highs in the mid 90s...no thanks! Saturday morning could feature some showers, but other than that, it remains to appear partly to mostly sunny for much of the week with temperatures in about the mid-80s, though the majority of areas will fall short of that today- some spots may not get out of the 70s, especially along the immediate shoreline.
There has been little change in the tropics since yesterday, with the most notable event being that soon to be Earl is now basically due south of Jamaica, so just a positional update there.
Today in weather history- August 2, 1975- Bar Harbor, ME, records an all-time record high of 101. When you think about how hard it is to get highs of 100 on the coast of Maine, let alone northern Maine...that's pretty impressive indeed!
For those who do not know, Bar Harbor is located here...
Quite honestly, I was caught severely off-guard by the thunderstorms this morning- I did not expect them to linger as long as they did, and it caused them to impact the morning commute. Hey, you learn something every time you get the forecast wrong though, so you take it in stride and move on...and now we begin a very nice stretch of weather, with the exception of Friday- which looks hot and purely miserably humid- highs in the mid 90s...no thanks! Saturday morning could feature some showers, but other than that, it remains to appear partly to mostly sunny for much of the week with temperatures in about the mid-80s, though the majority of areas will fall short of that today- some spots may not get out of the 70s, especially along the immediate shoreline.
There has been little change in the tropics since yesterday, with the most notable event being that soon to be Earl is now basically due south of Jamaica, so just a positional update there.
Today in weather history- August 2, 1975- Bar Harbor, ME, records an all-time record high of 101. When you think about how hard it is to get highs of 100 on the coast of Maine, let alone northern Maine...that's pretty impressive indeed!
For those who do not know, Bar Harbor is located here...
Monday, August 1, 2016
8/1- A Wet Start to August, Hello Atlantic
Good Monday all-
There is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today
Today is going to be a rather dank and dreary day, with highs in the high 70s or low 80s and predominantly cloudy conditions with a few isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms likely, particularly in the afternoon hours, but we are FINALLY heading for dryer times ahead. Tomorrow, after a shower or two in the early morning, should be getting increasingly clear through the afternoon, and then by Wednesday we should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s, with the potential of reaching 90 degree temperatures by the end of the week. Partly sunny skies appear to be the norm for those days, though a few showers are certainly possible from time to time, especially Saturday morning.
On another note, Tropical Storm Earl appears to be forming in the central Caribbean this morning, and if it does it will be the first tropical wave of the season to develop. The main threat area for this system appears to be the Yucatan Peninsula and potentially the Bay of Campeche as Earl moves basically due west from its' current position. It poses no threat whatsoever to southern New England. In the Pacific, Tropical Depression 9-E has become Tropical Storm Howard at 2 AM today, meaning that it missed breaking the all-time monthly record for the Pacific basin by two hours. Oh so close, and yet so far. It is generally heading for Hawaii, but it will not be strong by the time it gets there and is not much of a concern. Additionally, another system in a similar place will probably become Tropical Storm Ivette later this week. It's interesting to note that, six years ago in 2010, the I name was Isis but the name was retired due to the ISIS terrorist organization in the middle east.
^^ NHC graphic depicting the potential track of Tropical Storm Earl once it develops today or tomorrow
Today in weather history- August 1, 1985- A thunderstorm stalls over Cheyenne, WY, dropping 6" of rain in 6 hours, resulting in flash flooding, but more remarkable is the fact that it also produced two to five feet of hail in the region...yikes.
There is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today
Today is going to be a rather dank and dreary day, with highs in the high 70s or low 80s and predominantly cloudy conditions with a few isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms likely, particularly in the afternoon hours, but we are FINALLY heading for dryer times ahead. Tomorrow, after a shower or two in the early morning, should be getting increasingly clear through the afternoon, and then by Wednesday we should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s, with the potential of reaching 90 degree temperatures by the end of the week. Partly sunny skies appear to be the norm for those days, though a few showers are certainly possible from time to time, especially Saturday morning.
On another note, Tropical Storm Earl appears to be forming in the central Caribbean this morning, and if it does it will be the first tropical wave of the season to develop. The main threat area for this system appears to be the Yucatan Peninsula and potentially the Bay of Campeche as Earl moves basically due west from its' current position. It poses no threat whatsoever to southern New England. In the Pacific, Tropical Depression 9-E has become Tropical Storm Howard at 2 AM today, meaning that it missed breaking the all-time monthly record for the Pacific basin by two hours. Oh so close, and yet so far. It is generally heading for Hawaii, but it will not be strong by the time it gets there and is not much of a concern. Additionally, another system in a similar place will probably become Tropical Storm Ivette later this week. It's interesting to note that, six years ago in 2010, the I name was Isis but the name was retired due to the ISIS terrorist organization in the middle east.
^^ NHC graphic depicting the potential track of Tropical Storm Earl once it develops today or tomorrow
Today in weather history- August 1, 1985- A thunderstorm stalls over Cheyenne, WY, dropping 6" of rain in 6 hours, resulting in flash flooding, but more remarkable is the fact that it also produced two to five feet of hail in the region...yikes.
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