Friday, August 19, 2016

8/19- Heat Returns, Major Tropical Trouble?


Happy FRIDAY everyone!

It's another scorcher out there today! Highs will be approaching 90 once again, but thankfully the humidity won't be too high and there is no threat of precipitation. In fact, the only rain threat in the next week comes Sunday night into Monday with a cold front that will actually be powerful enough to send temps plummeting into the upper 70s or low 80s- yes, that's BELOW AVERAGE! The problem is getting there- we have several hot and humid days to get through to get there- upper 80s and low 90s will be prevalent accompanied by humid conditions over the weekend, with predominantly party to mostly sunny conditions.

The tropics are very complex today, so I'll divide them by basin

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Kay has formed as expected, but it poses no threat to land and thus is of little concern.

In the Atlantic- Wow, where to start? Tropical Storm Fiona packs 45mph winds this morning, but it poses no threat to land as it weakens and harmless goes to the notorious hurricane graveyard that is the north central Atlantic. That said, there is one wave right now that has the potential to do something truly incredible and potentially be a devastating hurricane somewhere. We're up to a 50-50 chance of development- in actuality I think it's much higher- and the models are extraordinarily bullish on it. I don't mean to alarm people here, as all it is right now is potential, but...this could be a storm to remember. Additionally, another one will likely develop behind it, but that appears to be another one for the fishes. The next two names on the name list are Gaston and Hermine.

DISCLAIMER- I am about to post something that I probably shouldn't as it is maybe a 1% chance at best, but is still amazing to look at (I've never seen it before). PLEASE do not take this literally until I say otherwise...which is unlikely to ever happen.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_46.png
                                ^^^ GFS showing a category 3/4 hurricane spinning near the 40/70 benchmark

That is very alarming and shows that the potential does exist for this to be one for the ages for someone. Do not focus on location- if you look at the date, it's still 13 days away!

Today in weather history- August 19, 1991- Hurricane Bob makes final landfall in Rhode Island, causing $1.5 billion in damage and killing 17. For some twenty years, this would be the last hurricane to have a direct impact on the region, prior to 2011's Hurricane Irene.

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