Tuesday, August 30, 2016

8/30- Getting chillier but the Tropics Remain the Story

Good Tuesday all-

What a boring forecast- it remains the same as yesterday, with the exception that Friday does look a bit warmer than it did at times yesterday. Now, I'll go with mid-70s for most people. With the exception of a scattered thunderstorm or two...we can expect partly sunny conditions and 80s for temperatures...literally as far as the eye can see into the future.

The big story remains in the tropics though. The outer banks of North Carolina are under tropical storm warnings this AM as TD8 passes either just east of or directly over that region...whilst TD9 has the potential to be a big impact for Florida's Big Bend region. It will be very, very close to hurricane status on landfall. If it achieves this...it will somehow become the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years. Its' life beyond that is more uncertain, as the GFS wants to bring it towards New England in about a week...but that seems unlikely for now. That said, there is support for this solution from the Canadien and Japanese models, so we cannot rule it completely out. I think the bigger threat to the eastern US is Invest 92L off Africa, which will likely become Hurricane Julia...the pattern looks mighty interesting in a couple weeks.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Madeline has undergone unexpectedly rapid intensification and has achieved category 4 status as it makes a beeline towards the Big Island of Hawaii. Although it may just skim the island to the south, a direct hit is equally likely. If that occurs, it would be the biggest hurricane to hit Hawaii in 24 years...my thoughts go out to them, especially because category 3 Hurricane Lester is heading for the northern end of the island paradise as well!

Today in weather history- August 30, 1776- George Washington is able to use a foggy morning on Long Island to successfully retreat from a major loss, and the British cannot pursue him due to unfavorable winds. Imagine if that had been a different outcome!

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