8/31- SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER- Just when you thought you had seen it all

Good Wednesday all-

There is truly no point in beating around the bush here. Remember how yesterday I said the GFS had a weird idea featuring a stalled TD9 just off the shore but that seemed unlikely? That actually now seems like the most likely scenario. Thus, I am forced to issue a rare SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER for Sunday night into Monday for TD9's potential impacts.

Before we go into more detail though, let me just say there is a thunderstorm threat this afternoon as a cold front will move through the region- there is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today, and showers are almost sure to occur later this afternoon. Nothing too awful by any stretch, but it helps us by booting TD8 out to the southeast of us.

Of far greater concern is the system currently in the Gulf, Tropical Depression 9. It will be named either Hermine or Ian today (depending on when TD8 achieves tropical storm status) and generally intensify rapidly as it heads for the northern Big Bend region of Florida. As it does, it will be pushed across the peninsula from west to east. Ordinarily, this would be an absolute slam-dunk out to sea forecast. Unfortunately, this time is different. A trough (an area of stormy weather) will attempt to capture the storm out to the east, but there's a high pressure there. Thus, all it can do is drag it north and not east, bringing the system directly up the coast to very near Connecticut by the end of the weekend. As for exactly what to expect...it's far too early to know because everything from partly cloudy to a fully blown hurricane remain on the table (these two are both extremely unlikely for now- the top result is somewhere in the middle). My best guess is pretty similar to the current GFS scenario, which is a pretty rotten deal for us here-


^^ GFS depicting a tropical storm sitting very near Long Island, featuring 30mph winds sustained.

If the above scenario verifies, it would be a pretty rotten deal for the shoreline. Not only would there be 30mph sustained winds, but there would surely be many gusts over 50, with surge being a concern as the counterclockwise flow blows the water into the Sound. The Euro is slightly further east, but paints a similar picture-



The difference between the two would be lower surge concerns in the European model, but with a stronger system winds would be about the same as the GFS.

There are many models out there that show different solutions, one of them is a major hurricane in the same place as the GFS (worst case scenario for us) and another shows a tropical storm landfalling in Boston from the east (that has NEVER happened). Whenever a system is blocked, weird and unpredictable things happen, so it is also possible to get a CT landfall. As we are only about 5 days away, it is worthwhile to have your hurricane plans ready! Even if the system doesn't impact us, you will have far less to worry about if one further down the road decides CT is a great place to visit.