Today will be hot and partly sunny, as I discussed yesterday- highs will be in the upper 80s today with partly sunny skies throughout- and the rain chances have increased tomorrow, but still any showers will be very light and scattered in nature. Besides that...I see no change to our near-term weather, so I won't bore you with details.
What I will give you, however, is information on a bizarre change to the potential track of soon-to-be Hermine. Both the Euro and the GFS now suggest a path across or just south of Miami as a weak system, strengthening into a moderate system that hits the FL panhandle, and then moves almost due east, putting it just off the coast of South Carolina. If it gets there, then it could redevelop. The Euro now attempts to pull it north in the general direction of our area, but a high blocks it out. That said...it's close...see below
^ The European model from 0z (2:30 this morning) showing category 2 Hurricane Hermine near Virginia after crossing Florida
What is key in the above picture is that dark green area north of Maine. Notice the tilt towards the southwest? That keeps the system out on this run. However...if that high is just a bit further east than previously modeled, the exact opposite will happen- causing it to get blocked from going out and getting banked into New England from SE to NW. The GFS, though, shows something completely different at this time
^ GFS model run from this morning showing weak Tropical Storm Hermine near Virginia
There are a few things that jump out at me from this run. First off, the storm in this case is essentially stalled out, which is different than the Euro. Additionally, notice the high forming in the central US (the dark red). Over the next few frames, this expands greatly and forces the system south. That, to me, seems extremely unlikely as that would be very rare. In fact...the Euro doesn't even develop a high in this area in the first place. Also worth noting though is that the dark green high that was in Maine on the Euro is well to the east. In this general upper air pattern..the storm should move generally north or northeast but it would have a limit to how far it could go east. Thus, this pattern would be significantly more alarming to me than the Euro should it come. Keep in mind though...this is ten or more days away! This system has been a blast to forecast, and I still have no idea what it is going to do!
Additionally, note that Tropical Storm Lester formed in the Pacific, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 25, 1940- The temperatures in New Jersey fall below freezing for the first (and to date only) time in the month of August. That's hard to do, and I can only guess that there was an extremely strong high pressure moving into the region from the northwest, causing strong winds from the north to send the temps through the floor
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