9/29- Showery Weekend

Good Thursday all-

Well, here comes the rain as we are entering an extremely wet pattern. My opinion is almost exactly the same as what it was yesterday- and that's rather bad news for places like the Berlin Fair and other activities that are going on through this weekend. It's one of those times where you just want to roll over and go back to sleep- rain is likely for much of the next four days as what we call a "cutoff" low (which describes an old and weak, but extremely slow moving low) will be plaguing us by sitting near Tennessee and spinning showers up from the south as time goes on. As for temperatures...we'll be in the mid to upper 60s for most of the forecast window.

I am still watching Tropical Storm Matthew, which was officially named yesterday morning in the Antilles. It's on a path that will impact Jamaica and Cuba, before moving into the Bahamas on a northward trajectory. If that gets your eyebrows raised, it should...that puts SNE in a vulnerable position indeed...so we need to watch closely. If it does decide to jog up the east coast, we could experience hurricane conditions a week from today or so.


^^ When computer models look like this, your eyebrows are raised.

Even more so when you look at the ensembles...


^^The GFS ensembles showing several members with a direct hit to Connecticut or the mid-Atlantic states.

This still is quite a ways out, but it is becoming more serious very quickly and, if trends continue, I will issue a severe storm watch tomorrow.

Today in weather history- September 29, 1959- Colorado Springs, CO picks up a whopping 28" of snow from a storm. This is extremely unusual for this early in the season, but it's far from unheard of- the town is situated at a very high elevation in the Rocky Mountains and averages 41", which is about the same as Connecticut, but it is more spread out over the season- the stormiest times of the year in the Rockies are late September to early November, and mid-March to late April.

On a happier note, congratulations to Red Sox Nation and all of those who have supported them throughout the season. It may be the most awkward way to clinch ever (a walk off grand slam, really?) but nevertheless it shows just how far you guys have come over the last year. Go celebrate!

9/28- Days and Days of Rain

Good Wednesday all-

Well, here we go...a cutoff low is moving from north to south out of the great lakes today and is going to basically sit and spin showers into our area from today until, I don't know- next Monday? OUCH. We do need the rain though and certainly will make up ground on that really nasty drought we have been going through since the beginning portion of the year. That said, it won't be raining all the time by any means- I don't think today will be that wet at all, but Friday should be rather moist, but otherwise I think we should just go with scattered showers and temperatures in the high 60s from now until about next Monday.

Beyond that, all eyes on the entire eastern seaboard will turn to what is developing into a dangerous situation in what will be Hurricane Matthew. Someone along the east coast is going to be staring down the barrel of a major hurricane next week as it moves north out of the Caribbean. Models suggest this could be close to New England about nine days from now. Obviously that's way out there and things will change, but it's worth keeping our eyes on as the days roll by and we head for the weekend.

Today in weather history- September 28, 1836- Hamilton, NY receives 4" of snow, and Ashby, MA pick up 2". This is unusually early, obviously, but it has certainly happened sooner in New England, especially in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont.

9/27- Wet, Serious tropical issues?

Good Tuesday all-

Well, this week is not going to be pretty whatsoever as we have a number of issues to talk about. The rain from this morning will be ending as the cold front pushes through to our east, but the temperatures will not be greatly impacted. I think we can eek out a partly cloudy day this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s but...enjoy it, because we won't see 70 again until Sunday! Tomorrow looks to feature mostly cloudy conditions, and then Thursday and Friday and possibly beyond look absolutely miserable with highs in the low to mid 60s, completely overcast conditions, and periods of rain (which we desperately need- most of CT is in a severe drought). The timing of this system that will stall over us is very important to the future track of what will be Hurricane Matthew (and potentially Major Hurricane Matthew) as it moves north out of the Caribbean. Models are trying to bring this dangerously close to New England by the middle of next week. Naturally, it's way out there and things can and will change, but keep your eyes on it as the basic ingredients are in place.

Other than soon-to-be Matthew, the Atlantic is quiet. Tropical Depression 19-E formed just barely east of the east/central Pacific dividing mark, but has entered the central Pacific basin. However, because it formed in the East Pacific, I am relatively confident that once it gets a name it will be from the East Pacific names, the next of which is Seymour, but it doesn't really matter as it poses no threat to land. A Tropical Storm is located southeast of Hawaii at the moment, but it will not impact them.

Today in weather history- September 27, 1987- Mt. Washington has one of those days that makes you shake your head. The base of the mountain enjoys mostly sunny skies with temps in the 70s, while the peak receives 5" of snow, 100mph winds, and 13 degree temperatures. Talk about contrast!

9/26- A needed Raw, Rainy Week Ahead

Good Monday all-

Talk about fall perfection today! It's stunning out there, and this will continue today, but that's one the fun ends. Tomorrow...rain will fall in the morning hours with a weak warm front, setting up a gorgeous day Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s and partly sunny conditions. Unfortunately, beyond that, it looks like we're staring at three days of completely cloudy weather and rain. To add insult to injury, highs will be in the mid 60s, which although is very near average...will feel much colder after our scorching summer. The better of the two weekend days is definitely Sunday, which actually looks dry with highs in the mid-60s. I do not think we can complain though about the rain too much- most of the state is in a severe drought. No frost is expected in the next week either.

Atlantic development is likely with a wave off Africa, and it's on a relatively interesting path, so we'll have to watch it closely, though it's way too early to be more of a thought than "oh it's out there". The next name on the Atlantic list is Matthew. Additionally, Tropical Storm Roslyn formed in the Pacific yesterday, but it poses no threat to land. Another cyclone will likely form right at the boundary between the east and central Pacific basins, and where it does will determine if it is the next named storm for either basin. Note- there are only seven names remaining on the list for Pacific hurricanes with still over two months of season to go.

9/23- Those Temps are Heading to the Floor...and through it!

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

But oh boy, are we in for a nasty shock this weekend. After a very pleasant and warm day today...we are going to have a cold front introduce some major changes to our forecast. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight tonight but...they won't be too much of a problem. The issue is that this will send temps down some 15 to 20 degrees. Highs tomorrow will be near 70- and that appears to be the warmest day of the next 4. Otherwise, highs will be in the mid to upper 60s...and potentially even the low 60s on Sunday. In fact it would not surprise me to see some towns in the higher elevations get stuck in the 50s on that day! Also, gardeners should note that we will be very close to a frost on Sunday night into Monday, with lows forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s at the moment. That would be unusually early to have a first frost, but it can happen! Although some warming looks likely next week, there are no 75 degree days in sight in the next seven

The Atlantic still features Karl, which has re intensified into a tropical storm and is now nearing hurricane intensity this morning, and Lisa, which harmlessly spins in the east Atlantic. I am most concerned for now about a tropical wave just now moving off Africa and, although it won't develop quickly, it probably will do so when it gets into the Caribbean. The next name on the Atlantic list is Matthew.

The Pacific is in the same position as it was yesterday morning.

Today in weather history- September 23, 1904- Charlotteburg, NJ manages to plunge all the way to 23 degrees, the all time September record low for the state. Although such an event would be extremely rare...there is a path to doing this, primarily involving low winds and a very strong high to our northwest.

9/21- Farewell to Summer...Dryness Reigns Supreme...

Good Wednesday all-

It's the tale of two seasons in the coming days. First things first, today, tomorrow, and Friday will be thoroughly summer-like. We can expect highs in the mid-80s and partly sunny conditions on each day, at least until Friday evening. That is the first season of the week. The second is firmly autumn. After a powerful cold front moves into our region Friday night (along with a line of thunderstorms- the only rain chance in the next week), the temperatures will be far below average. In fact, it's unlikely that we get to 70 for the foreseeable future after that. On Sunday though...we may even have a tough time getting to 60...especially in the cooler parts of CT, which may be the first day we see the 58-59 degree high temperatures in the NW hills. Sunday night into Monday could also be very close to a freeze- I will be watching that closely for your gardening needs.

Tropical Storm Karl is now a Tropical Depression, and TD 13 has become Tropical Storm Lisa, but neither pose any direct threat to land. Pacific Hurricane Paine has dissipated just west of the Baja, but Tropical Storm Roslyn is likely to form this week and drift in generally the same direction.

Today in weather history- September 21, 1938- A day that will long live in New England lore- after predictions of a light rain in breeze, the strongest known hurricane in our region's history roars ashore on Long Island and Connecticut as a high end category 3 storm. Winds gust to category 5 intensity, the surge goes up to 30 feet, and the waves are pounded ashore to the extent that California's earthquake meters could register them. In all, 682 people are killed, and damage amounts to the equivalent today of $4.7 billion. Should such a storm occur today...it would be exponentially worse than Hurricane Sandy...and would almost undoubtedly come very close to Hurricane Katrina in damage total. We are actually overdue for this kind of a storm...let's hope we stay that way for a long time to come.




Please enjoy the last day of summer and see you in the fall!

9/19- Finally, a total washout

Good Monday all-

Oh boy will this be fun, especially on a Monday. Rain is moving into the region from west to east, and it is going to pour for much of the day today as a warm front moves from west to east across our area. We can expect one to two inches of much-needed rain today and that will be very, very helpful...but not nearly enough to totally bust us out of our drought. Unfortunately, after today, we have a long stretch of dry and exceptionally warm weather- highs will be in the mid-80s tomorrow...which is absolutely unbelievable for late September. We should be a bit cooler on Wednesday, but we're back to the 80s on Thursday and Friday. A cold front will finally move through on Saturday, and this will send temperatures plummeting all the way to significantly below average- some areas could have a hard time even reaching 60 on Sunday if some models are accurate.

The Atlantic remains active, as Tropical Storm Karl formed on Saturday and is generally expected to strengthen and head directly for Bermuda as a hurricane...they'll certainly need to watch this one. Additionally, a tropical wave behind it is probably going to briefly become Tropical Storm Lisa early this week, but conditions are not overly favorable by about Thursday. As for the Pacific, Hurricane Paine is taking a very bizarre path, and is generally heading for San Diego. Although it won't get there at anywhere near hurricane intensity, it is quite odd to get a landfall in the Northern Baja Peninsula indeed. In fact, in recorded history, only two tropical storms have ever made landfall in southern California. This will not be the third, but it shows how it could be possible for sure

^ The rather odd path being taken by Hurricane Paine

Additionally, a low off Mexico could develop towards the end of the week or the weekend, but it is unlikely to pose any threat to land.

Today in weather history- September 19, 1967- Category 3 Hurricane Beulah makes final landfall at the mouth of the Rio Grande River, just south of Brownsville, which gets drenched with over a foot of rain, easily their single event record. Additionally, a ship in the river records winds gusting to 135mph- category 4 intensity!

9/16- Very chilly, Great Start to the Weekend but...

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

Wow is today going to be beautiful. In fact, it may be among the best days of the year- temperatures will be extremely comfortable today- we can expect highs in the low to mid 70s- which is actually slightly below average for this date. It's really chilly this morning- we're in the mid to upper 40s as I type this, and we should experience something pretty similar tonight- it's great sleeping weather! Now for the rest of the weekend, tomorrow looks great, but Sunday...yeah not so much. Rain will be developing through the afternoon, and it should be of the steady, moderate variety as a warm front moves through Connecticut. This will set up temperatures in the mid-80s on Tuesday (a real scorcher for late September) before we drop things back to the mid 70s by midweek, which is very close to average.

The Atlantic is very active today, with Tropical Storm Julia off the southeast coast, Tropical Storm Ian- heading directly for Iceland- and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karl just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Karl is expected to become a hurricane with time as it moves across the basin, but it is unlikely to reach the US mainland. Additionally, a tropical wave has a window of opportunity for development early this week- the next name on the Atlantic list is Lisa. With the formation of Karl...this is now the most active Atlantic season since 2013.

The Pacific continues to feature a weakening Tropical Storm Orlene, Tropical Storm Paine is likely to form early this week, but it appears to be no threat to land. When Paine does form, there will only be eight names left on the Pacific list. The record number of named storms in the Pacific is exactly enough to exhaust the list completely. Considering we are at the peak right now...we have a chance with still two full months of hurricane season to go. We are at roughly the same place as the Atlantic was in 2005 at this time on the name list

Today in weather history- September 16, 1881- Iowa records its' earliest snowfall on record, with up to six inches falling in the western portion of the area. Such an event is more possible in Iowa than in southern New England primarily due to the lack of influence from the warm Atlantic Ocean, leaving that part of the country far more vulnerable to oddly-timed snowfalls. Of course, a six inch snowfall on this date in Connecticut would be an absolute disaster, so let's hope that never happens!

9/14- History in the Atlantic

Good Wednesday all-

A cold front is getting ready to move through Southern New England this afternoon, and with it will come a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather, but a MARGINAL risk exists just barely to our north, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a few of those stronger storms work their way into northern Connecticut but, since is the summer of 2016 where we get no rain, consider it highly doubtful. Regardless of what happens with the storms, the rest of today will be very nice indeed- we're going to the mid-80s- but we come crashing back to earth tomorrow. In fact, temperatures will be slightly below average tomorrow as we struggle to reach the mid-70s, very much an early fall-like day, with crisp overnight lows in the upper 40s likely tomorrow night...and some people in the far northwest hills could experience their first night in the 30s as well at that time. Moving ahead, high 70s and low 80s will be the norm for the week, with the only precip threat coming on Sunday afternoon with a weak warm front.

Tropical Storm Julia has made history in the Atlantic, having unexpectedly formed literally over land in Florida. This is the first tropical cyclone recorded in world history to form over land. As a result, parts of Georgia and Florida are under tropical storm warnings today...yikes...and Ian poses no threat to land. Karl and Lisa appear to be on the horizon as well from Cape Verde waves, but any impact they will have is way too far out to determine at this time. Hurricane Orlene continues spinning harmlessly in the Pacific, but another storm forming closer to Mexico could pose a threat to the Baja in about a week's time.

^Julia formed west of Jacksonville, the first tropical cyclone to ever form over land

Today in weather history- September 14, 1988- Hurricane Gilbert achieves an extreme rarity in the Atlantic as it makes landfall at category 5 intensity on the Yucatan Peninsula. It would eventually cross it, re-emerge into the Gulf and make a final landfall near the Texas-Mexico border. By the time all is said and done, Gilbert does $7.1 billion (1988USD) in damage, kills over 400 people, and becomes the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic (though this would fall some 17 years later to 2005's Hurricane Wilma). In the near future, though, Julia may well fall into this section for September 13!.

9/13- So Sorry...

Good Tuesday all-

There's not much to talk about so this will be short and sweet. First off, I give you my deepest apologies for not posting for so long. I was quite unwell last week, and I simply forgot yesterday. In any event though, it's not doomsday- we can expect highs in the 70s and 80s with partly sunny skies and, with the exception of maybe a shower or two tomorrow night...we have no threat of rain. The big story is that we will likely have some towns in the 30s on Friday night- just a sign of the times as we are now a mere week away from the autumnal equinox. Get ready for the cold!

Tropical Storm Ian formed in the central Atlantic yesterday but it poses no threat to land, and the same goes with Pacific Hurricane Orlene. No new development is likely in the near future

Today in weather history- September 13, 1922- El Aziza, Libya breaks the all-time world record high temperature, setting the mark at 136 degrees, which still stands to this day. To add insult to injury, this was during a massive duststorm...yikes!

9/11

Good Sunday all-

First I just want to apologize. I should never ever have not updated for as long as I have, but I was not feeling well for most of the week last week and thus had my health to worry about.

I will have a full blog post tomorrow detailing forecasts for the week ahead, as well as a discussion about Hurricane Hermine and why the forecasts were a bust for both here and areas to our south.

Today, though, is truly about taking pride in our country and remembering a day that has been seared into the minds of all those that witnessed it. Today I send out prayers to all those killed on 9/11, and those that were impacted by this tragedy. We will never, ever forget.

9/6- STORM WARNING- Impacts from Hermine today

Good Tuesday all-

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is up for the shoreline east of New Haven

Well, that was interesting. The storm yesterday looked like it jogged to our east far enough to allow us to dodge the bullet but...a sudden blast westward last night caused us to get the forecasted weather for yesterday, today. That means 50mph+ gusts at the shoreline, as well as some coastal flooding. Inland will not be all that bad, although it could see some gusts. Some showers are also possible in the eastern portion of the state, but that is clearly not the most important part of the forecast today- some downed trees and power lines are possible, especially along the shoreline.

Although much of the same can be expected tomorrow, we then clear things out for Thursday and experience hot and humid weather for the end of the week- we may even touch 90, which is pretty impressive for September. A cold front will finally move through Sunday morning, killing the heat and humidity to the point that, by next Monday, we probably will not get to 80, slightly below average for this time of year.

There is some threat of development near the Cape Verde Islands by the end of the week, but it appears as though it would pose no threat to land as it harmlessly spins off into the hurricane graveyard of the North Atlantic. Some development is also possible of a wave as it approaches the Yucatan. The big story this morning though is Pacific Hurricane Newton, It has just made final landfall in the Baja as a very high end category one storm- it will likely make it all the way to Arizona as a legitimate fully-fledged tropical storm- a rare feat for the southwest! Additionally, there are two more areas with good chances of developing this week.

As an aside, we are now in serious danger of exhausting the name list in the Pacific basin. If the two systems become "O" and "P" There would only be 8 names left on the list with nearly three full months left in the season!

Today in weather history- Well, nothing of note has ever really happened on September 6, so...whatever happens today will be making history!

9/4- Hermine begins tonight

Good Sunday all-

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is up for the entire shoreline

The forecast is largely the same as yesterday, but a jog to the east overnight has occurred. What does that mean for us? Well...not much. My biggest concern remains the surge of 2-4' (by comparison, CT's storm surge during Hurricane Sandy was 5.5 ft in Bridgeport). Thus, it won't be anywhere near that extreme but...still quite damaging. I would certainly be moving my items to the top floor of the house if I lived on the immediate shoreline. As for wind, 20 gusting to 40 should do it for all of Connecticut, with the shoreline seeing 30 gusting to 50-55 instead. It would not surprise me to see one or two gusts to 60 in the state, but these appear likely to be few and far between.

The worst of the storm will be from midnight tonight to noon on Tuesday. During that time, keep an eye on the forecast and get ready for quite a noteworthy storm!

Please stay informed by using the National Hurricane Center's website, nhc.noaa.gov, which will give updates on Hermine every 3 hours from now until landfall. Use the "public advisory" or the "hurricane local statements" as your guide- the other products are for geeks like me and tend to be quite technical. Governor Malloy is closing the state parks at noon today...and is activating the emergency operations center tonight. Please pay attention to his announcements as well.

SPECIAL WEEKEND UPDATE- SEVERE STORM WATCH- TRACKING HERMINE

Good morning everyone-

I have the latest for you on Tropical Storm Hermine! The overnight model runs were interesting, as they jogged north a bit too far for my liking. With the system now stalling close to southern New Jersey, those nasty wind fields will be just far enough north to impact the CT shoreline. As a result, I am going to have to bump my forecasted wind gusts up to 50mph to 60mph along the shoreline...and 40 to 50 mph inland. To add insult to injury...we can expect very little rain from this system as all the models show that ridge drying up the precip. In other words, here is what we can expect from TS Hermine in the next few days.

Timing- Very late tomorrow night, all day Monday and some of the day Tuesday.

Winds- Winds gusting 50-60mph on the shoreline...40-50mph inland...and 30-40mph in the northern four counties

Coastal flooding- Significant coastal flooding is likely along the shores of LIS. Expect some serious issues along the shoreline.

Rain- Very little for most of the state. The highest amounts will likely be in southern Connecticut nd the lowest (which may be nearly zero) along the MA border.

Damage/Power Outages- Significant power issues could occur, especially in the southern four counties. Additionally, there could be significant tree damage because of these high winds, but I am more concerned than usual because of the drought we have been experiencing. It

All in all...I believe this system will not be quite as bad as Irene and Sandy...but will be worse than 2008's Tropical Storm Hannah...and will likely be somewhat similar to what the state experienced with 1999's Hurricane Floyd...but without the rain and focused along the immediate shoreline. As a general rule, the closer you get to NYC the worse the damage will be.

There is still time for this to change. A similar jog north would cause gusts to hurricane force...while a jog south could send my numbers back to where they were earlier. I am about 55-60% confident in the forecast described above, however.

In any event, be ready. A significant windstorm is coming...so get that bread and milk ready...and be prepared to have no power (especially along the shoreline). And whatever you do...just don't go to southern New Jersey...just don't...

UPDATE

Hello everyone-

For the first time since 2011, the NWS has placed southern Connecticut under a TROPICAL STORM WATCH. Please, please, please stay aware of the forecasts in the coming day.

9/2- SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER- All eyes to Hermine

Happy Friday everyone- enjoy the long weekend!

Unfortunately, we are having an extremely unlikely and crazy series of meteorological events all coming together to give us a crazy week of forecasting stress and high-risk high-volatility. Gotta love that!

Where we sit today is that Hermine rapidly intensified just prior to landfall, ultimately striking St. Marks, FL with 80mph wind, ending the well known Florida hurricane drought after 3,965 days- nearly eleven years! It's been an extremely improbable dry run for the sunshine state, but we are back to normal with that wakeup call. This morning, the storm is situated just west of Savannah, GA, packing 70mph wind and moving northeast. This general motion shall continue for the next day or so before taking a more northward turn, rapidly intensifying back to either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, and stalling out somewhere between northern Virginia and central New Jersey. Even though that is not much of an area...the impacts here are vastly different. A Virginia stall would leave us with kinda blustery winds and no rain, whereas a stall in northern New Jersey would produce conditions similar to what the state experienced in Irene and Sandy. That said, that is the absolute best and worst case scenario. Neither are especially likely, and I would suggest the following is the most likely situation.

ASSUMING A STALL OFF OR NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA- ANY DIFFERENCE WILL CHANGE THIS DRASTICALLY

- Very gusty winds, with some of the strongest potentially reaching up to 50 mph.

- Squally, wind-driven rain at times due to the outer rainbands

- SEVERE SURGE FLOODING ON THE SHORELINE- this is my greatest concern as the storm could be spinning water into LIS from tomorrow until next Thursday. 

Thus, although it is not exactly a direct hit...it's not pretty either. I am 60% confident in this solution.

^ GFS model depicting this solution. A powerful east to west wind is piling water into LIS in this solution.

IF THE STORM STALLS FURTHER SOUTH (NEAR VIRGINIA)

- Moderate, squally winds, likely with peak gusts at 20-30mph

- No precipitation at all

- Limited flooding

This would be extremely forgettable. This for now appears to be the least likely scenario.

^^^The unreliable NavGem depicting this solution, sparing CT almost completely

IF THE STORM STALLS FURTHER NORTH (OFF ATLANTIC CITY, NJ)

- Extremely strong and gusty winds, tropical storm conditions widespread with many power issues, winds gusting to near hurricane force

- A massive amount of rain as the storm sits and spins and drops copious amounts of precipitation as it sits in the same spot for days

- Remarkable storm surge- though exactly how large remains to be seen.

Such an extreme scenario probably has a 20-30% chance of occurring.

^^CMC model depicting this scary outcome, producing near hurricane conditions in Connecticut

All in all, one of these three will happen, I will update this afternoon with my latest thoughts.

Today though, proudly wave your hurricane flags in the wind and get ready.

 

9/1- SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR TROPICAL WEATHER- Trend Discussion, and Why this is So Hard to Get Right

Good Thursday all-

Welcome to the most important day of model runs in over a year- since Joaquin threatened last fall!

The trends overnight have been for a stronger system but a stall slightly further south. The difference between that and a weaker storm stalling further north are virtually nothing...but the newest model runs have showed it coming up much closer than that. Verbatim, the 06z GFS model has a near-hurricane sitting right on the south Jersey shore Sunday night. The CMC shows something similar but a bit further East, and the Euro somehow shows a category 3 hurricane just east of Delaware. Awesome. To make matters more difficult, all of the models are even more different as to what happens to Hermine after the stall. Some models literally have it backing up to the south, tracking down the coast, and then back up it again, and hitting us as a stronger storm in two weeks. Huh? To make matters worse, there are really no analogs to this storm- it'll be making its' own history as time goes on. Here are some sample ideas for you...

^^Euro showing a major hurricane stalled east of the DelMarva


^^ GFS showing a tropical storm in CT

^^Crazy CMC model path showing south then back


What do I expect? Well...I have no idea. We just have to wait and see what happens. What we do know is that any impacts will be felt Sunday and Monday! By all means, keep your eyes on the forecast and...