Welcome to the most important day of model runs in over a year- since Joaquin threatened last fall!
The trends overnight have been for a stronger system but a stall slightly further south. The difference between that and a weaker storm stalling further north are virtually nothing...but the newest model runs have showed it coming up much closer than that. Verbatim, the 06z GFS model has a near-hurricane sitting right on the south Jersey shore Sunday night. The CMC shows something similar but a bit further East, and the Euro somehow shows a category 3 hurricane just east of Delaware. Awesome. To make matters more difficult, all of the models are even more different as to what happens to Hermine after the stall. Some models literally have it backing up to the south, tracking down the coast, and then back up it again, and hitting us as a stronger storm in two weeks. Huh? To make matters worse, there are really no analogs to this storm- it'll be making its' own history as time goes on. Here are some sample ideas for you...
^^Euro showing a major hurricane stalled east of the DelMarva
^^ GFS showing a tropical storm in CT
What do I expect? Well...I have no idea. We just have to wait and see what happens. What we do know is that any impacts will be felt Sunday and Monday! By all means, keep your eyes on the forecast and...
Well it certainly will get interesting. I think I'll skip boating this weekend. The possible CAT 3 off the Del. coast would bring tons of rain inland, flooding?
ReplyDeleteRemembering what Irene did to VT, the same could happen to PA.
Bob Lizotte