Unfortunately, we are having an extremely unlikely and crazy series of meteorological events all coming together to give us a crazy week of forecasting stress and high-risk high-volatility. Gotta love that!
Where we sit today is that Hermine rapidly intensified just prior to landfall, ultimately striking St. Marks, FL with 80mph wind, ending the well known Florida hurricane drought after 3,965 days- nearly eleven years! It's been an extremely improbable dry run for the sunshine state, but we are back to normal with that wakeup call. This morning, the storm is situated just west of Savannah, GA, packing 70mph wind and moving northeast. This general motion shall continue for the next day or so before taking a more northward turn, rapidly intensifying back to either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, and stalling out somewhere between northern Virginia and central New Jersey. Even though that is not much of an area...the impacts here are vastly different. A Virginia stall would leave us with kinda blustery winds and no rain, whereas a stall in northern New Jersey would produce conditions similar to what the state experienced in Irene and Sandy. That said, that is the absolute best and worst case scenario. Neither are especially likely, and I would suggest the following is the most likely situation.
ASSUMING A STALL OFF OR NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA- ANY DIFFERENCE WILL CHANGE THIS DRASTICALLY
- Very gusty winds, with some of the strongest potentially reaching up to 50 mph.
- Squally, wind-driven rain at times due to the outer rainbands
- SEVERE SURGE FLOODING ON THE SHORELINE- this is my greatest concern as the storm could be spinning water into LIS from tomorrow until next Thursday.
Thus, although it is not exactly a direct hit...it's not pretty either. I am 60% confident in this solution.
^ GFS model depicting this solution. A powerful east to west wind is piling water into LIS in this solution.
IF THE STORM STALLS FURTHER SOUTH (NEAR VIRGINIA)
- Moderate, squally winds, likely with peak gusts at 20-30mph
- No precipitation at all
- Limited flooding
This would be extremely forgettable. This for now appears to be the least likely scenario.
^^^The unreliable NavGem depicting this solution, sparing CT almost completely
IF THE STORM STALLS FURTHER NORTH (OFF ATLANTIC CITY, NJ)
- Extremely strong and gusty winds, tropical storm conditions widespread with many power issues, winds gusting to near hurricane force
- A massive amount of rain as the storm sits and spins and drops copious amounts of precipitation as it sits in the same spot for days
- Remarkable storm surge- though exactly how large remains to be seen.
Such an extreme scenario probably has a 20-30% chance of occurring.
^^CMC model depicting this scary outcome, producing near hurricane conditions in Connecticut
All in all, one of these three will happen, I will update this afternoon with my latest thoughts.
Today though, proudly wave your hurricane flags in the wind and get ready.
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