SPECIAL WEEKEND UPDATE- SEVERE STORM WATCH- TRACKING HERMINE

Good morning everyone-

I have the latest for you on Tropical Storm Hermine! The overnight model runs were interesting, as they jogged north a bit too far for my liking. With the system now stalling close to southern New Jersey, those nasty wind fields will be just far enough north to impact the CT shoreline. As a result, I am going to have to bump my forecasted wind gusts up to 50mph to 60mph along the shoreline...and 40 to 50 mph inland. To add insult to injury...we can expect very little rain from this system as all the models show that ridge drying up the precip. In other words, here is what we can expect from TS Hermine in the next few days.

Timing- Very late tomorrow night, all day Monday and some of the day Tuesday.

Winds- Winds gusting 50-60mph on the shoreline...40-50mph inland...and 30-40mph in the northern four counties

Coastal flooding- Significant coastal flooding is likely along the shores of LIS. Expect some serious issues along the shoreline.

Rain- Very little for most of the state. The highest amounts will likely be in southern Connecticut nd the lowest (which may be nearly zero) along the MA border.

Damage/Power Outages- Significant power issues could occur, especially in the southern four counties. Additionally, there could be significant tree damage because of these high winds, but I am more concerned than usual because of the drought we have been experiencing. It

All in all...I believe this system will not be quite as bad as Irene and Sandy...but will be worse than 2008's Tropical Storm Hannah...and will likely be somewhat similar to what the state experienced with 1999's Hurricane Floyd...but without the rain and focused along the immediate shoreline. As a general rule, the closer you get to NYC the worse the damage will be.

There is still time for this to change. A similar jog north would cause gusts to hurricane force...while a jog south could send my numbers back to where they were earlier. I am about 55-60% confident in the forecast described above, however.

In any event, be ready. A significant windstorm is coming...so get that bread and milk ready...and be prepared to have no power (especially along the shoreline). And whatever you do...just don't go to southern New Jersey...just don't...