10/31- Big big big big change for tomorrow

Happy Halloween everyone!!

Today is going to be fine, but the big weather story is what is going to occur tomorrow. The computer models last night decided to shift some 150-200 miles west with the nor'easter last night...so much so that it's actually now too close to the shoreline to produce snow. The problem is that it's going to be a gigantic rainstorm tomorrow, and a total washout, with frigid temps (in the 40s!). Yikes. It may end as some wet snow in most (if not all) areas, but accumulation is unlikely. As we move forward, though, Sunday looks nice, but absolutely frigid...and I doubt most areas get higher than 45-48. In fact, the early part of next week appears considerably warmer than normal, and most areas will see temperatures in the high-50s and low 60s. By Thursday, though, a rainstorm will come through and knock down the temperatures back to where the should be for November (low to mid 50s, though 60 degree days are not uncommon early in the month). As much of a change that this month of October is, November is even more so. A month from now, if we haven't had our first big snowfall, it will likely be close to occurring.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Vance formed at last last night, and is located some 450 miles south of Acapulco. Unfortunately, it is expected to make a dramatic northeast turn, and likely pose a threat to the Mexican mainland just south of the Baja by about Wednesday.

Today in weather history- October 31, 1876- A hurricane (called a cyclone in that region of the world) moves across the Bay of Bengal and clobbers northeast India, and demolishes an area that is vastly underdeveloped but densely populated, and one hundred thousand people are killed. Today, the situation is still the same but with dramatically more people and, in fact, it is believed that a similar storm could kill a million people.

10/30- Halloween Eve looks cold

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be quite cold indeed. Last night's showers were associated with a cold front, and therefore it's going to be a much colder day today. I doubt temps reach 60 for most of us, and a 58 degree high temperature is likely being a tad generous for most. Either way, it's going to be a dry day, so it could be worse. Halloween looks fine, as the weather stays cool and dry. Saturday, rain moves in, and it appears as though it will rain for a significant portion of the day. Overnight, some flurries or light snow showers are possible without any accumulation. After that, we finally warm up, and the next chance for rain after that doesn't come until Wednesday afternoon.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- After a day or so of delaying the inevitable, Tropical Depression 21-E has formed, and could become a hurricane heading directly for the Mexico mainland. Certainly it's worth watching!

Today in weather history- October 30, 1991- A coastal storm absorbs Hurricane Grace, which then rapidly intensifies in the Gulf of Maine and crushes New England with extreme wind and rain. One thousand homes are either damaged or totaled, with 4 to 7 foot surge and extreme winds for most. Chatham, MA, for example, sees a 78 mph gust. Eventually, the storm acquires a warm core and becomes a hurricane moving away from New England. By the time all is said and done, this becomes known as the "perfect storm" and is still very much an important chapter in New England weather lore.

STORM WATCH UPDATE- Cancelled

Hello everyone-

Based on today's computer models, I think we are in the clear. All of them show the storm some 75-100 miles offshore, and the odds of a high-impact storm are now less than 10%, so I am cancelling the storm watch. Instead, expected some rain, maybe a flurry on Saturday night. I hope that everyone has a very good evening, and that you are happy with this outcome. Apologies for raising a false alarm, but I'd much rather do that and have you be prepared than to catch you off guard.

I'll update in the morning in full.

10/29- STORM WATCH UPDATE #3

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the overnight model runs actually may be converging towards a solution of a hit. The GFS came at least 50 miles further west, and has been trending that way the last several runs. Now the question is whether the cold air arrives in time to give us a primarily snowstorm, or if it's a big ol' cold rainstorm with some flakes flying at the end. Granted, a hit itself is still far from certain, but it is substantially more likely than it was yesterday, which increases the odds of something big for southern New England. For now, most of the news stations say rain during the daytime hours of Saturday, with it mixing with or changing to snow Saturday night. Based off the current data, this certainly seems very realistic, and is what I would go with as well if I was on the TV. Because I'm not...I have a bit more freedom to say "watch out, this could still be a big snowstorm" or "The forecast is highly uncertain, keep reading". I am not trying to advertise my post later tonight, but...I think we'll know significantly more by then. This is right on the edge of being historic right now, so keep reading. Otherwise in the weather world, next week looks much warmer and any snow we do get to accumulate will melt pretty quickly, and it looks like we'll go to the polls with temps in the high 50s or low 60s and bright sunshine. Halloween still looks a bit cold for trick-or-treaters, but the nor'easter will hold off until Saturday (Actually, it may be more of a Saturday into Sunday deal instead of a Friday into Saturday).

In the Atlantic- A disorganized area of low pressure just north of the Antillies has a small chance of development before wind shear tears it apart over the weekend. This would pose no threat to land whatsoever. The next name on the Atlantic name list is Isaias.

In the Pacific- Vance-to-be still hasn't developed, but it may pose a threat to Mexico later in the week.

Today in weather history- Today absolutely has to be the most significant date in Connecticut weather history for two days in back to back years


October 29, 2011- In one of the most unbelievable things of all time, a major nor'easter clobbers New England, and I mean clobbers. Millions lose power due to the leaves left on the trees, not to mention 76 mph wind gusts in Barnstable, Massachusetts, accompanied by heavy snow. 32" fall in Peru, MA, and 12.3" fall in Hartford, which is more snow than had fallen in all Octobers combined before this event. Ultimately, 39 people are killed and damage estimates around $2 billion.

Perhaps more importantly (if that's possible)

October 29, 2012- Hurricane Sandy becomes an extratropical cyclone (an extremely powerful one) as it makes landfall in New Jersey and becomes the nightmare storm for New York and the Jersey shore. Millions lose power, flood damage is massive, and Manhattan suffers a blackout, the tunnels and subways are flooded. By the time all is said and done, 148 people are killed and $68 billion in damage is estimated, making Sandy the second most costly hurricane on record (Katrina is the first by a clear mile). Also, this storm changes the way hurricane watches and warning are defined, since the NWS couldn't technically issue hurricane warnings for an extratropical storm. Now, however, the NWS has the ability to issue hurricane warnings in a similar case, since the impacts were certainly resembling that of a hurricane, essentially, from Jersey to Massachusetts.

Phew! That's all.

STORM WATCH UPDATE #2

Good evening-

Today's computer models have actually made me more perplexed than it was earlier. This is one of those classical times when you're going to here the TV people say "it could rain, snow a little, snow a lot, or be sunny". Unfortunately, all I can do really is break down what happened today in computer model data, and you can see why it can be so hard to be a weatherman.

The 0z ECMWF, the first computer model avalable today, and generally considered the most accurate, came in with a full-out blizzard with 7-14" statewide and 40mph sustained winds.

The 0z GFS and 6z GFS did not have the two systems coming together until the Gulf of Maine, leading to flurries.

The 12z GFS had the storm come together early, but completely miss out to sea, causing partly cloudy, albeit very cold, weather.

The 12z Euro showed an early phase...but brought the storm just far enough north to be all rain.

At this point, I was very pessimistic about the storm chances. In fact, one meteorologist on Facebook essentially wrote the storm off, which is a mistake this far off...

The 12z Euro ensemble mean (which takes the average of several computer model runs with slightly different input conditions to allow for the uncertain measurements) showed a giant blizzard for everyone.

The 18z GFS just came out. It's further east than the 12z, but it's still a miss.

The bottom line, as you can see...it's too early to call. Any of the above seem believable, so it's the waiting game!

I'd say the odds are below-

Sunshine- 25%
Cloudy with scattered flurries or minor accumulation- 40%
Big rainstorm- 15%
Blizzard- 20%

There you go- this can be so tough sometimes. Enjoy your evening, I'll see you in the morning.

10/28- STORM WATCH ISSUED BY ME FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY- What a difference a day makes...

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a beautiful day, with temps in the mid-70s and bright sunshine! Scattered rain showers are still very likely tomorrow. The real trouble, however, lies at Saturday, and actually this merits its' own paragraph.

Alright, so remember Hurricane Ana from last week that threatened Hawaii? The remnants are going to hit the Pacific Northwest today, and then become a clipper system that will work its' way across the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the same time, a low pressure from the Gulf, which is totally separate from anything tropical, moves up the East coast...and you probably can guess what's going to happen. Eventually, these two features will combine and, well...IF everything comes together...we'd be looking at an Oct '11 redux. Heavy snow and strong wind would be possible, and power outages would be commonplace because all the leaves are still on the trees. An early guess at the worst possible accumulation this weekend would be something like 7-14", but I do not forecast that at this time, and probably has about a 33% chance of happening. In this scenario, winds would also gust up to 50-60mph, and would be a storm we talk about for years. This is, in fact, currently forecasted by the European model. The situation that everyone is talking about on the news (scattered snow showers) is unlikely- I do think everyone will see an accumulating snow down to the shoreline- but news channels have to be more careful than I do on this blog. Conservatively, I'll say an accumulating snow for Saturday, say the potential is there for a blockbuster, and leave it there.

The threat, though, is real enough for me to issue a STORM WATCH, and will update two times per day until the threat either goes away, or we are finished dealing with the big one. Regardless of whether we get a truly epic snowstorm, enjoy the season's first flakes.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Hanna shocked the meteorology world by suddenly forming yesterday basically right on the coast of the Honduras, and moved inland very quickly, dumping heavy rain on the area. It's already dead, and development is not expected anytime soon.

In the Pacific- See yesterday's post.

Today in weather history- October 28, 1846- A blizzard drops 5 feet of snow on what is now referred to as Donner pass, because this strands the Donner party in the mountains for the winter, and barely more than half survive the winter. The story has, over the years, acquired an almost mythical feel, and there certainly many, many articles out there about this if you are interested in more information.

10/27- Nice to frigid

Good Monday all- sorry!

Today is going to be a fine day with temps in the mid-60s pretty much everywhere and sunny skies, and tomorrow is actually going to be much the same, but with even warmer temps- I wouldn't be shocked if someone in my forecast area touched 70 tomorrow! The only chance for rain this week comes Tuesday night, which is followed by colder temps. Halloween, for the moment, looks absolutely frigid and way below average temperatures. At least it won't be ruined by a giant snowstorm or a freak hurricane. Beyond that, the first flakes will fly, and the weekend is positively frozen.

On Monday posts, I am now going to post a look at the upcoming week below

Today: Sunny and temps around 63-65

Tomorrow: Absolutely stunning for late October- bright sunshine and highs of 67-70

Wednesday: AM rain, cooler- highs between 64-67

Thursday- Pretty nice- partly cloudy with highs between 58-62

Halloween- Increasing clouds- highs between 53-58- trick or treaters should be dressed for the low 40s.

Saturday: AM light snow, no accumulation- then clearing but highs between 39-45.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, but highs between 38-44

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon

In the Pacific- A low in the middle of nowhere will probably become Tropical Storm Vance, and it is too early to fully be certain that it poses no land threats. Also, the remnants of Hurricane Ana will strike Washington and Alaska this week, and it could be a very powerful storm for them.

Today in weather history- October 27, 1998- Hurricane Mitch strikes the Honduras as a category 4 hurricane, but stalls just north of the area, causing absolutely incredible rain. In fact, many areas report 50-75" of rain, killing a whopping 18,974 people- the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin (the deadliest is the Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed about 23,000 people in the Antillies)

10/24- Finally some improvement

Happy FRIDAY everyone- we made it!

Today is going to be (finally) a bit better than the last few days. Granted, it won't be perfect, especially during the morning hours, but the rain should be highly scattered and light in nature, a nice change from what we have recently experienced. In fact, the sun could appear this afternoon at times, so it's fantastic that we may see it for the first time since Monday. Furthermore, it appears there is no threat of rain until next Wednesday, and even that is rather marginal. We are getting into a nice pattern...thank goodness- we deserve it!

In the Atlantic- For all intents and purposes, no development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- See yesterday's post, but the odds of development have increased to 50/50

Today in weather history- October 24, 2002- For the first time in a century, a tornado hits Corpus Christi, Texas, damaging several homes and collapsing a wall at the Del Mar College. 

Have a great weekend!

10/23- What a night

Good Thursday all- just one day!

Today is going to be a bit better than last night, fortunately, but still rather nasty indeed with heavy rain and gusty wind. Thankfully, we made it through last night without too much trouble, but what a night indeed. 7,000 people, however, are waking up in the dark this morning, which is nothing to sneeze at. The wind advisory has been extended until 8 AM and, quite honestly, I'd be rather surprised if they didn't extend it further than even that. The storm will, thankfully, begin to move away tonight so that we don't get it too bad tonight, and we finally get rid of most of the rain around noon tomorrow. Beyond that, it appears as though we'll be quite dry for several days and there is no precipitation in sight. Let's just get through the next 36 hours or so, and we'll be in the clear.

In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche briefly became Tropical Depression #9, but it failed to become a tropical storm before it hit the west coast of the Yucatan this morning. Otherwise, it isn't going to be a very interesting week in the basin.

In the Pacific- A low developing off Mexico could become Tropical Storm Vance, but it is too far out for any details at this time.

Today in weather history- October 23, 2005- In an event generally forgotten because of Wilma (see yesterday's post), Tropical Storm Alpha kills 12 in Hispanola and becomes the record-breaking twenty-second named storm of 2005. This occurs because the NHC will name storms after exhausting the regular list after the letters of the Greek alphabet. In fact, they get all the way down to Zeta (the sixth letter on the list) and add another storm that should have been named but they missed, making the 2005 season by far the most active on record with 28 named storms (and thirty-one tropical depressions- so we weren't far off from having Tropical Storms Eta (there should have been), Theta, Iota, and Kappa!)

It may be late, but I should update here

Wind Advisory for southern New Haven, Middlesex until 2 AM

The storm tonight is turning out to be far nastier than expected as it undergoes bombogenesis just south of Long Island. In fact, I wouldn't be stunned to see someone get a peak wind gust near 60 in some of the stronger storms. Additionally, there could be scattered waterspouts & tornadoes this evening as well. This is a truly remarkable storm for this time of year. Power outages are also a distinct possibility with 4,000 CL&P customers out as of 10 PM this evening. Keep your fingers crossed that you aren't among the unlucky ones, have a good evening, and stay safe.

10/22- Getting wetter...

Good Wednesday everyone-

Today is going to be significantly wetter than yesterday, I'm afraid, as a steady rain develops this morning and it is, quite honestly, going to last all day today, tomorrow, and the morning hours of Friday. On the positive note, a very nice weekend appears to be in store for us here, with temps in the mid-60s and bright sunshine, with a similar forecast early next week.

Sorry for the brief discussion today, but the computer model website is down this morning, so I have to go with what they say on the news only :(. Hopefully it comes back tomorrow.

In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche has indeed strengthened into Tropical Depression 9 as it moves east towards the Yucatan. This is a highly bizarre track, since most weather patterns in the Atlantic basin move east to west- in fact, the last time a hurricane hit the west coast of the Yucatan was 1995's Hurricane Roxanne, and you have to go back further than that to find the last time one actually made landfall there (In fact, I am not sure it ever has).

In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.

Today in weather history- October 22, 2005- Hurricane Wilma, the only W named storm in the history of the Atlantic basin, clobbers the Yucatan as a 130 mph category 4 hurricane. Two days prior, the hurricane hit record peak intensity, which is certainly interesting because it isn't exactly the most remembered storm in the Atlantic. The previous record holder, however, was very much a household name (1988's Hurricane Gilbert). Either way, Wilma proves very strong in its' own right, and does enough damage to be retired.

10/21- Here we go...

Good Tuesday all-

Unfortunately, today is the first in a long line of wet days. Today is going to be the least wet of these days though, so enjoy it? Either way, only scattered showers are likely today, whereas it's pretty much going to pour all day tomorrow and Thursday, and there will still be some showers around Friday morning. On all days, temperatures are going to be in the mid-50s, so it'll be an ice cold rain as well, adding to our misery. The bright side to this, however, is that the weekend looks absolutely fantastic with sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s. The early part of next week looks dry as well.

In the Atlantic- The low in the Gulf may become Tropical Storm Hanna (the 2008 version of which hit Connecticut directly as a tropical storm- if the name seems familiar that's probably why) and drift...southeast? Then some models have it drifting off the Southeast coast for several days, which is just..weird. This could be a very bizarre storm, so it'll be fun for me to track.

In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.

Today in weather history- October 21, 1638- In a truly bizarre event, a strong tornado hits...southwest England, and- in an amazing instance of the worst possible luck- strikes a church directly in the middle of service, leading to the death of 50 people.

10/20- Wet wetter and wettest

Good Monday everyone-

Today is going to be the nicest day of the week, with primarily sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s...but that's where the good weather ends...until the weekend!!! A classic nor'easter will form, starting with showers late tomorrow afternoon and continuing with rain on Wednesday...and Thursday...and Friday. Temperatures will be consistently in the mid-50s as well...so it'll be a cold rain to add insult to injury.

Anyway, the snow season is nearly upon us. I attended the tri-state weather conference at WestConn on Saturday, and the majority of people there seemed to believe this would be a very cold and snowy winter. Based on the early tracks of the nor'easters this year...and the amount of snow pack in other parts of the world...I am inclined to agree with them...the year that compares the most is probably 1976-77, which was above average in this region.

In the Atlantic- Two systems, one in the Gulf of Mexico and one near the Azores, are in a race to become Tropical Storm Hannah, with the loser becoming Tropical Storm Isiah. The one near the Azores poses no threat to land, whereas the one in the Gulf has horrid model agreement, though the majority pose a threat, oddly, to the east coast of Florida- they have it actually moving southeast, which is ridiculously bizarre...then shifting due north parallel to the east coast of Florida...and then some actually take it to Southern New England around (unbelievably) October 29...the anniversary of Sandy. This is a very very very long shot, but it would be something else.

In the Pacific- No development anytime soon, and Ana is moving away from Hawaii, who was dealt primarily with heavy rain for impacts. Also, Tropical Storm Trudy hit Mexico this weekend, but with minimal impacts- just some rain and gusty wind.

Today in weather history- October 20, 1996- New England deals with a powerful four-day long nor'easter (sound familiar?), which drops as much as 18" of rain on Sanford, Maine. The one we deal with this week should not be nearly as strong as this one.

Protect your plants

Hello everyone-

As expected a FREEZE WATCH has been issued for areas from North Haven north for the entire area of central Connecticut. Protect your plants tomorrow night...but say goodbye to the insects!

Also, as we enter the snowy season in Connecticut, I'll have a discussion on what I think the winter will bring in my blog update Monday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

10/17- Is this the fridge?

Happy FRIDAY all- you've made it!

Today is going to be a fantastic day, with highs in the (gasp!) low 70s! The problem is, it may be the last time we hit the plateau this season, so enjoy it! A cold front moves through with a scattered shower or two tomorrow, but nothing that would ruin your day at all. My main concern with it is that the temperatures on Sunday may not even reach the mid-50s, and it would not surprise me one bit if some of the colder areas of our state saw highs in the 40s on Sunday. It certainly will feel like late fall on those days! When we get to next week, Monday looks fine, but the rest of it looks quite wet as a nor'easter stalls off the coast, giving us rain Tuesday to Thursday.

In the Atlantic- Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo, the strongest Atlantic hurricane in five years, is taking a worst case scenario path for Bermuda. This is likely to be the worst storm on record for them, even worse than 2003's Hurricane Fabian, which did $300 million in damage and killed 4 (which are some seriously big numbers for a tiny island). Otherwise, no new development is expected.

In the Pacific- The disturbance discussed recently fizzled a bit yesterday and the odds of development have dropped to 50/50. Additionally, it appears Hawaii has dodged the bullet with Ana, as it did not intensify as much as expected, causing it to take a more westerly track and totally miss the islands.

Today in weather history- October 17, 1967- In a truly remarkable event, Xinliao, Taiwan begins to deal with a tropical storm lasting the next two days...which drops 108.31" of rain on the area. Yeesh! That is nearly twice our annual average! 

10/16- Yuck!

Good Thursday all-

Though I should say 'wet' Thursday all...because unfortunately it is going to pour all day!! In fact, some areas may pick up two to four inches of rain this afternoon if you are unlucky enough to be one of the wetter spots today. Fortunately, tomorrow and the weekend look good, if not chillier. By Sunday...yikes...some areas, dare I say it? may struggle to reach 50! In fact, a widespread frost is possible Sunday night/Monday morning. The only other thing to watch out for next week is a solid chance for some flurries midweek, which is really only noteworthy in that they'd be our first flakes of the year. Early indications of a nor'easter near or on Halloween are too far off to discuss at the current time.

In the Atlantic- Hurricane Gonzalo, the first storm to reach category 4 intensity in three years, has winds of 140 miles per hour, which is just 16 mph shy of category 5 intensity, but it should come up just a bit short of that. Unfortunately, it is heading straight for Bermuda, and it will likely be a massive disaster for them, so keep them in your thoughts tonight and tomorrow.

In the Pacific- First off here, Hawaii appears to have dodged a bullet with Ana...though they will likely still experience tropical storm conditions. Otherwise, there is still a strong (70% chance) of development with the system I discussed here yesterday.


Today in weather history- October 16, 1954- In a continuation of yesterday's mention, Hurricane Hazel reaches Canada with 110 mph win gusts in Toronto, 9 inches of rain, and kills a further 80 people, further debunking the myth that hurricane damage is an exclusive concern to the shoreline areas of the US.

Update- first flakes?

Hello everyone- hope your Wednesday is going well.

Look, I won't beat around the bush here- our first snowfall is on the way...potentially on Tuesday. Will it be significant? Not likely. Sure, it's with a nor'easter, and I suppose with a perfect track (and I mean perfect, like a 0.0001% chance) it could be a repeat of 2011...but don't worry. It will not happen. Either way, though, I do think most of us get our first flakes next week, so winter is here for sure!

I'll have more in my full update tomorrow morning :)

10/15- Enjoy today...because you won't enjoy tomorrow

Happy Wednesday everyone-

Today is going to be fine, in fact, it will be very nice. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s today! This is just incredible for mid October, but it is going to happen. Unfortunately, it comes with a very bad price...the fact remains that tomorrow is going to be a total washout and, in fact, one of the wettest days in recent memory. I expect 2-5" of rain tomorrow, and it will pour all day. Grr! Thankfully, we don't have any rain in sight beyond that, but temps won't get to 60 this weekend, further showing us that fall is here!

In the Atlantic- Dangerous major Hurricane Gonzalo has 125 mph winds this morning, which is just 10 mph short of becoming a category 4. If it does so, it would be the first category 4 since 2011's Hurricane Ophelia. It is unlikely to become a cat. 5, and we will likely still be looking for our first category 5 in the Atlantic since 2007's Hurricane Felix another season. Unfortunately, though, this has the potential to be an absolute catastrophe for Bermuda, as it is likely to approach the island very closely as a major hurricane...yikes!

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Trudy is likely to form south of Guatemala in the next few days, but it appears to pose a significant threat to Mexico...it's worth watching. Also, in the Central Pacific (which uses different names than the East Pacific, which is defined as east of 140 degrees west longitude), Tropical Storm Ana is strengthening, holding 70mph winds...and heading directly for Hawaii, and it could be a very big deal for them, so keep your fingers crossed for them.

Today in weather history- October 15, 1954- One of the most significant tropical anniversaries of the year, as Hurricane Hazel crushes Cape Fear, NC- but maintains it's intensity all the way to Canada, causing top wind gusts all the way up the east coast to New York, which sees a record-smashing 125 mph wind gust, a record which still stands today, despite much closer approaches from a direct hurricane (Sandy didn't even come remotely close to that record).

10/14- Warm til 'Thurs, but we pay then

Good Tuesday everyone!

Today and tomorrow are going to be absolutely fantastic! Temps both days will be in the low to mid 70s, with bright sunshine today but clouds on the increase tomorrow. Unfortunately, these two absolutely perfect days come with a price- horrible weather on Thursday, and I mean horrible. In fact, damaging winds and even some hail will accompany a powerful cold front, leading to a total washout during the day Thursday. Beyond that, the weekend looks fantastic, and it looks like we get to enjoy below-average temperatures in the 50s early next week.

My thoughts to those effected by the severe weather in the western Appalachians and Midwest yesterday.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Gonzalo has undergone rapid intensification and is now just 5 mph shy of being a major hurricane- it has 110mph winds...and it will almost certainly attain major hurricane status in the next advisory. This has the potential to be a major catastrophe for Bermuda, I'm afraid, and it may even directly hit the island. Keep your fingers crossed for them.

In the Pacific- A low near Mexico may become Tropical Storm Trudy later this week, but it is just too early to know where it would go at this time.

Today in weather history- October 14, 1930- An early season lake effect snowstorm dumps 48 inches of snow just south of Buffalo, NY.  Amounts of snow like this are not unusual for that region, but this early in the season, it certainly is unusual and worth mentioning in this section

10/13- Columbus Day

Happy Columbus Day!

Today is going to be fantastic, with temps in the mid 60s today, but the temps are going on the rise. In fact, we'll end up in the mid 70s by Wednesday...but the price is, unsurprisingly, a powerful cold front Wednesday night which could lead to some thunderstorms and will lead to pouring rain Wednesday night and Thursday morning. An early look at the weekend looks like Saturday will be rainy with a pleasant Sunday.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Fay has is going out to sea, whereas newly formed Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed east of the Antillies, and may intensify into a major hurricane just east of the Bahamas, but the only land area it poses a threat to is Bermuda.

In the Pacific- Finally, tropical development is not expected anytime soon.

Today in weather history- October 13, 2006- In an early season surprise, a lake effect snow event dumps two feet on Buffalo, NY...with the leaves still on the trees, resulting in a situation worse than our big October snowstorm a few years back. $200 million in damage is recorded, and some lose power for two weeks.

It's official- the tropics have a new breath of life

Well, here we go. I wasn't sure that this would happen again this year after an insanely quiet last month or so, but it has, so let's talk! Subtropical Depression #7 has formed this afternoon north of Hispanola, and it is probably going to be Subtropical Storm Fay at the next advisory. What does Subtropical mean? Simply stated, it's a storm with a combination of tropical and extratropical cyclones (these are defined by whether they are warm or cold core). For all intents and purposes, subtropical storms are every bit as severe as regular tropical storms, and are named from the list regardless of this difference.

This, however, is not the only game in town, as I'll mention below. First, here are your charts on what will soon be Subtropical Storm Fay.

As you can see, a Tropical Storm watch has been put up for Bermuda, so if someone has vacation plans there, it's worth watching. The other thing worth watching is this...

It's that orange X that I am concerned about. The path that thing takes, if it plays out like that, would be putting that in a very precarious position, but it would be a week or more out, so don't panic yet.

10/10- Wet for tomorrow, fine for Sunday

Good Friday all- welcome to a long weekend!

Unfortunately, though, it's going to start out rather miserably for us here in Connecticut. Today itself looks absolutely fine with average temperatures (mid 60s) and sunshine. Tomorrow, though, looks horrid. In fact, it is going to be absolutely pouring all morning tomorrow, and it wouldn't stun me for areas to receive one to two inches of rain tomorrow. The other parts of the weekend look delightful, though, and I even expect the weather to be alright by 4-5 PM tomorrow, so it's certainly possible to do the outdoor things you want to do this weekend...just do them on Sunday or Monday. Beyond that, showers are possible Tuesday, and Wednesday looks like a total washout.

In the Atlantic- The low north of Hispanola is probably about to become Tropical Storm Fay, but it poses no threat to the US. It does, however, pose one to Bermuda...so it's worth watching for them!

In the Pacific- As discussed previously, the low off Ecuador could well become Tropical Storm Trudy (Yes, that's the T name in the Pacific..odd indeed) early next week. Otherwise, the basin is quiet.


Today in weather history- October 10, 2009- Nome, Alaska receives the first fall thunderstorm in the town's history, recording five lightning bolts between 8 and 9 PM. Nome rarely gets thunderstorms in general due to it's geography in far western Alaska, but this just goes to show that storms happen everywhere!

10/9- Tropics finally awaken once more?

Good Thursday all-

First off, sorry for not updating yesterday, but I was sick as a dog, so I wasn't exactly focused on typing this blog. I am feeling much better today (thankfully), though. Today is going to be just fine, with temps very similar to what we have been experiencing lately in the high 60s/low 70s. Tomorrow itself looks good but Saturday...yikes. In fact, Saturday has the potential to be a total washout as pouring rain is going to effect us as yet another nor'easter moves up the coast. If nothing else, it shall be pouring, pouring, pouring Saturday morning, which should screw up everyone's outdoor plans. At this time, reschedule any outdoor Saturday morning plans.

In the Atlantic- For the first time in nearly a month...tropical development is possible. There is a low north of Hispanola that, as it moves north towards Bermuda, very well may become Tropical or Subtropical Storm Fay. Additionally, the GFS ensemble models keep showing a hurricane somewhere in two weeks. Where will that be? I have no clue, as they show everything from Texas to us to Bermuda. Waay too early to know anything, obviously, but worth watching nonetheless.

In the Pacific- See Tuesday's post..nothing has changed at all, except Simon has completely died out and is producing heavy rain in Arizona this morning.


Today in weather history- October 9, 1982- Portions of the Black Hills of South Dakota pick up 6...FEET of snow (that's 72 inches!). For comparison, that is roughly double what we picked up in Blizzard Charlotte back in 2013. Imagine what THAT would do to us in New England...it's rather terrifying. It is not impossible though. The biggest snowstorm in New England history- the Great Blizzard of 1888- dumped 60" on Saratoga, NY...so one never knows. The drifts in that one were up to 50 feet. Just an incredible storm that will likely never be matched. The only storm that even comes close to that one is the 2013 blizzard mentioned earlier

CENTRAL CT WEATHER ALERT- Coastal Flood Advisory

Meh, I wouldn't worry too much about this. Certainly it's possible, but it won't be a big deal, and the severe potential tonight is a far greater risk.

10/7- Really bizarre weather event

Good Tuesday everyone!

Today is going to be a rather wet day, with showers in the morning and, although we dry out by the middle of the day, the showers return later tonight. Overnight tonight there is a chance of a late (and I mean really late, like 2-5 AM) severe thunderstorm. Yes, there could really be severe weather early tomorrow morning, which would be highly unusual, but not unprecedented in our region. Beyond that, only Friday night and Monday night pose any rain threat, with temps very similar to where we were yesterday.

In the Atlantic- What do you think? Tropical development is not expected anytime soon. In fact, the basin is so quiet right now that I have to wonder if the season is over. If so, this is the least active hurricane season since 1994.

In the Pacific- See yesterday, there has been no change.

Today in weather history- October 7, 1962- Hurricane Daisy passes just offshore of eastern New England, dropping a foot of rain on the region and causing massive flooding. Additionally, a nor'easter had just moved through the day prior with more rain, adding fuel to the fire. Damage exceeded $10 million.

10/6- Wet week ahead..

Good Monday all (If such a thing exists...)

Today is going to be a very nice day, but is the exception to the rule this week. The temperature today will be in the high 60s to near 70 with partly sunny skies. Tomorrow, rain develops in the afternoon and it likely is going to rain lightly but steadily overnight tomorrow night into Wednesday, with rain totaling between .25 and .5". Beyond that, Thursday looks alright, but rain is likely again Friday night into Saturday, not a pouring rain, but again a lightish but steady rainfall, which our plants will appreciate.

In the Atlantic- No development is likely anytime soon.

In the Pacific- Simon unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane yesterday, but is now a tropical storm. The major concern is, however, that it is heading directly for the Baja and eventually the southewestern US, who just got dumped with rain from the remnants of Odile. Also, development is possible late week with a low near Guatemala at the moment.

Today in weather history- October 6, 1941- A double whammy in the US, as a strong tornado hits Kansas City, MO and kills 4 people and destroys 130 houses. Also, a category 3 hurricane directly hits Miami, killing 5 people and causing major property damage.

Plants? Read this.

Just FYI everyone- we are going to be very close to having a frost tonight in northern areas (I'd say exit 10 and higher on 91). Temps will be in the high 30s or low 40s, but you may wish to cover your plants just to play it safe.

10/3- Great today, not tomorrow

Good Friday all- we made it!

Today is going to be a great day to be outside, featuring bright sunshine and moderate temps in the high 60s. However, enjoy it while it lasts, because tomorrow afternoon looks pretty miserable with pouring rain and much colder temperatures. In fact, some areas in Litchfield county may freeze tomorrow night, so if you live up there I'd think about covering your plants. Otherwise, no real major weather events occur until next Tuesday/Wednesday, when there is a chance of another major rainstorm. On the other side of the spectrum...the GFS model was forecasting a storm that was very close to a snowstorm in 3 weeks. Don't panic- this will not happen, but it is just a bit interesting that the season has come, and we are starting to get very close to watching for flakes!


In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- See yesterday, but the threat to the Baja is now very significant from Simon.

Today in weather history- October 3, 1841- What is now referred to as the "October Gale", but likely a large extratropical remnant low from a hurricane, passes over Nantucket and washes 40 boats ashore, killing 57. Meanwhile, the west side of the storm brings in enough cold air to bring a major snowstorm to southern New England, as Middletown, CT picks up 18 inches of snow!

10/2- Enjoy today!

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be just fine today, as we should get rid of any rain early today, lending us mostly cloudy skies and moderate temps in the mid-60s for highs, which is really very typical for early October. Tomorrow also looks nice, with perhaps a bit more sunshine than today. Saturday morning actually is now looking alright, and now it appears as though Saturday evening is a bigger concern with the torrential rains. In fact, any further delay with the system could washout Sunday and leave Saturday dry. For the sake of most people, I hope this does not happen. As it is, I'll go with a decent Saturday morning with heavy rain in the late afternoon and overnight hours, ending around 9 AM on Sunday. I certainly will let you know if anything changes. Looking ahead to next week, some rain is likely on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, and temps look very typical for this time of year with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s and low 70s.

In the Atlantic- Though the NHC is watching two lows NORTH of Bermuda, I do not believe that they will develop, so I'll say no development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Simon has formed (unsurprisingly) and appears to be heading directly for the Baja Peninsula, exactly what they don't need now as they try to rebuild after Hurricane Odile.

Today in weather history- October 2, 1858- In a once in a few-centuries event, incredibly, a category one hurricane hits San Diego, giving them hurricane conditions with 75mph winds. We don't know much more than this, because it occurred before observations, but the storm surge was rather significant as well, and streets were washed away.

10/1- Welcome to October...with lots of rain

Good Wednesday all-

It won't be a good Wednesday in terms of weather, though. An odd back-filling nor'easter is pretty much going to dump on us most of the day today, leading to as much as an inch or two of rain in some of the unlucky places. This forecast is particularly tough, because the pattern itself is really odd, and I would be surprised by neither us getting almost no rain at all or getting 2-4". Sadly, this is far from the end, either. It is going to pour certainly on Saturday, and potentially early next week as well. Dare I say as well that on one day next week we may not reach 60? Perhaps!

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon!

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Rachel died yesterday as expected- no change from yesterday in the expected development.


Today in weather history- October 1, 1989- Barrow, Alaska ties their record high for this date of...39!

 :)