Good evening-
Today's computer models have actually made me more perplexed than it was earlier. This is one of those classical times when you're going to here the TV people say "it could rain, snow a little, snow a lot, or be sunny". Unfortunately, all I can do really is break down what happened today in computer model data, and you can see why it can be so hard to be a weatherman.
The 0z ECMWF, the first computer model avalable today, and generally considered the most accurate, came in with a full-out blizzard with 7-14" statewide and 40mph sustained winds.
The 0z GFS and 6z GFS did not have the two systems coming together until the Gulf of Maine, leading to flurries.
The 12z GFS had the storm come together early, but completely miss out to sea, causing partly cloudy, albeit very cold, weather.
The 12z Euro showed an early phase...but brought the storm just far enough north to be all rain.
At this point, I was very pessimistic about the storm chances. In fact, one meteorologist on Facebook essentially wrote the storm off, which is a mistake this far off...
The 12z Euro ensemble mean (which takes the average of several computer model runs with slightly different input conditions to allow for the uncertain measurements) showed a giant blizzard for everyone.
The 18z GFS just came out. It's further east than the 12z, but it's still a miss.
The bottom line, as you can see...it's too early to call. Any of the above seem believable, so it's the waiting game!
I'd say the odds are below-
Sunshine- 25%
Cloudy with scattered flurries or minor accumulation- 40%
Big rainstorm- 15%
Blizzard- 20%
There you go- this can be so tough sometimes. Enjoy your evening, I'll see you in the morning.
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