10/29- STORM WATCH UPDATE #3

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the overnight model runs actually may be converging towards a solution of a hit. The GFS came at least 50 miles further west, and has been trending that way the last several runs. Now the question is whether the cold air arrives in time to give us a primarily snowstorm, or if it's a big ol' cold rainstorm with some flakes flying at the end. Granted, a hit itself is still far from certain, but it is substantially more likely than it was yesterday, which increases the odds of something big for southern New England. For now, most of the news stations say rain during the daytime hours of Saturday, with it mixing with or changing to snow Saturday night. Based off the current data, this certainly seems very realistic, and is what I would go with as well if I was on the TV. Because I'm not...I have a bit more freedom to say "watch out, this could still be a big snowstorm" or "The forecast is highly uncertain, keep reading". I am not trying to advertise my post later tonight, but...I think we'll know significantly more by then. This is right on the edge of being historic right now, so keep reading. Otherwise in the weather world, next week looks much warmer and any snow we do get to accumulate will melt pretty quickly, and it looks like we'll go to the polls with temps in the high 50s or low 60s and bright sunshine. Halloween still looks a bit cold for trick-or-treaters, but the nor'easter will hold off until Saturday (Actually, it may be more of a Saturday into Sunday deal instead of a Friday into Saturday).

In the Atlantic- A disorganized area of low pressure just north of the Antillies has a small chance of development before wind shear tears it apart over the weekend. This would pose no threat to land whatsoever. The next name on the Atlantic name list is Isaias.

In the Pacific- Vance-to-be still hasn't developed, but it may pose a threat to Mexico later in the week.

Today in weather history- Today absolutely has to be the most significant date in Connecticut weather history for two days in back to back years


October 29, 2011- In one of the most unbelievable things of all time, a major nor'easter clobbers New England, and I mean clobbers. Millions lose power due to the leaves left on the trees, not to mention 76 mph wind gusts in Barnstable, Massachusetts, accompanied by heavy snow. 32" fall in Peru, MA, and 12.3" fall in Hartford, which is more snow than had fallen in all Octobers combined before this event. Ultimately, 39 people are killed and damage estimates around $2 billion.

Perhaps more importantly (if that's possible)

October 29, 2012- Hurricane Sandy becomes an extratropical cyclone (an extremely powerful one) as it makes landfall in New Jersey and becomes the nightmare storm for New York and the Jersey shore. Millions lose power, flood damage is massive, and Manhattan suffers a blackout, the tunnels and subways are flooded. By the time all is said and done, 148 people are killed and $68 billion in damage is estimated, making Sandy the second most costly hurricane on record (Katrina is the first by a clear mile). Also, this storm changes the way hurricane watches and warning are defined, since the NWS couldn't technically issue hurricane warnings for an extratropical storm. Now, however, the NWS has the ability to issue hurricane warnings in a similar case, since the impacts were certainly resembling that of a hurricane, essentially, from Jersey to Massachusetts.

Phew! That's all.