10/31- A chilly Halloween, analyzing last week's snow event

Good Monday all-


Wow! If you can believe it, Halloween is here- it feels like just yesterday we were in January and yet here we are. Stay safe out there tonight trick-or-treaters!

Now on to the weather! Today is going to be excellent but cold. We will be a touch below average for today- highs will be in the low to mid 50s for most of CT (the average high is about 58). Additionally, it will be quite breezy- gusts up to 20mph are possible from the due North, making the chill even greater. There is good news though- we are going to steadily rise temperatures each day through Thursday, to the point where there will be highs in the upper 60s!! That is insanely warm- but enjoy it because a very cold front will move through Thursday evening or Friday morning, sending the temps plunging through the floor and returning them to significantly below average (in the 40s) by next weekend. Of the next seven nights, the only one that there is a freeze possible is tonight.

It is worth noting that after next week, there are very strong signs of a very active and snowy pattern developing throughout our region for the last two weeks of November and into December. If this does pan out, it would be the first time we've had a snowy start to the season in quite some time.

Last week's snow overpreformed significantly throughout our area, and BDL recorded 1.5" of snow, making this the third biggest snowstorm in October in recorded history at Hartford. Second place was within reach at 1.7" of snow...but of course the great Winter Storm Alfred on 10/29/11 remains the king of October snows, and likely will for all of our lifetimes.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are quiet.

Today in weather history- Halloween, 1846- In a truly ironic coincidence, the now-infamous Donner Party becomes trapped in the Sierra Nevada Mountains for an entire winter. Snow drifts up to forty feet are recorded, and the party ultimately resorted to cannibalizing their dead to survive. Talk about a creepy fact for a creepy day.


^^^I cannot believe it is already time to post this.

We vote 8 days from now!

There are 24 days to Thanksgiving

There are 55 days to Christmas

There are 62 days until January 1, 2017

10/26- Very cold, snow tomorrow

Good Wednesday all-

I am going to have to keep this short and sweet as I am in a hurry this morning (I have an exam at 9!) but I do want to at least blog today as I ran out of time yesterday. Today we can expect highs in the upper 40s (ouch- that's very nippy for late October!). To add insult to injury, winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10mph and although that's not overly strong, that just makes it feel cooler! Additionally, tomorrow, a major storm system will be impacting us with heavy precipitation, especially overnight tomorrow into Friday. This won't be all snow (thankfully, or it would be over a foot) but we can certainly see a few flakes in western Connecticut tomorrow at the onset of the event. I think this is most likely to occur in Litchfield County, where I cannot even rule out one inch of accumulation. Hey, that works. Friday and Saturday look warmer, but precipitation moves into the forecast as another front moves through Saturday afternoon.

The Atlantic is quiet, and the Pacific has no storms that are threatening to land, despite a beautiful looking category 4 Hurricane Seymour.

Today in weather history- October 26, 1859- New York, NY picks up the earliest snowfall of note on record- 4" fall on the city. Of course, this is exceedingly impressive for them (it's tough for us to do that to but the 10/29 storm of 2011 is still in our minds) Seeing as the dates are only three days apart, the pattern was likely exceedingly similar.

Note that Middletown Public Schools are closed today due to a water main break...why couldn't this have ever happened to my school? Regardless, enjoy the day off!

10/24- A Nippy, Nippy Week

Good Monday all-

It's cold out there...and it's going to stay that way for much of the upcoming week. In fact, it looks like 60s will be non-existent for the next 7 days. The highest we will get is 59...and that may be generous. In fact, for tomorrow and Wednesday, I really doubt that we hit 50, which is very rare for this time of year. Freezing temperatures are certain the next few nights, which will end the growing season for once and for all, so pick those vegetables and call it a year. For sky conditions, we had rain overnight last night, and we're going to be golden with sunshine for tomorrow and Wednesday. For Thursday afternoon though, there are some pretty alarming signs...


^^^ 06z GFS showing 2 to 4 inches of snow Thursday afternoon

One of our models, the GFS, is currently proposing a significant (for October) snow event for areas west of I-91, with as much as four inches of snow in parts of the state before changing to rain. To make matters worse, the timing is almost directly during the Thursday afternoon commute. This would be a very, very messy situation and bears watching- especially since all the leaves remain on the trees. Make no mistake- this is not anything near 10/29/11, but would be a pretty big inconvenience...I promise I will be watching that for you. For now, I do believe some snow is likely Thursday afternoon.

The Atlantic is quiet, and Pacific Tropical Storm Seymour is not expected to pose any significant threat to land as it harmlessly swirls away in no man's land.

Today in weather history- October 24- Very little of note has happened on this date, since I already discussed Hurricane Wilma, which crossed south Florida on this date in 2005- this remains the last major hurricane to landfall in the US as Matthew came extremely close to, but not quite over, the Florida shoreline.

10/21- Rain

Happy Friday everyone!

Today is going to be a miserable wet day, although exactly how much remains to be seen. It's a torrential downpour right now in Naugatuck, and I am honestly kind of surprised, though it is wonderful as we really need the rain! That said, tomorrow night could be interesting as snow is possible in the higher elevations as the storm departs to our north. Temperatures will be plummeting as well- highs will only be in the 50s for both tomorrow and Sunday before we get a touch warmer for Monday...and then have our coldest stretch of the season thus far Tuesday and Wednesday- some towns will probably not touch 50 on those days, especially in the Litchfield hills. Some showers or flurries are possible Tuesday night as well!

The Atlantic is quiet, but two systems in the Pacific have some chance of development over the weekend.

Today in weather history- October 21, 1988- Hurricane Joan makes a final landfall in Nicaragua as a category 3 storm, killing 200 people and doing $1.5 billion (1988USD) in damage. The storm took a very odd path- practically due west from the southern Antillies, never moving one degree above or below 12 degrees latitude.

10/19- Still Warm

Good Wednesday all-

Oh boy, more record breaking temperatures today! Highs will be in the lower 80s once again if you can believe it, which will feel unbelievable for this time of year- is it really October? This will be accompanied by decreasing cloudiness through the day today however...rain will become likely throughout the region tomorrow as a cold front moves through and then that low pressure I was talking about will arrive for Friday. We are still going to have to wait and see what is going to happen with its' interaction with soon to be Tropical or Subtropical Storm Otto spinning off the southeast coast. Either way...we will get at least showers Friday and the potential of something more if the interaction between the two systems is favorable- we really, really need the rain! By the weekend, we're looking at far colder weather, and unseasonably cool temperatures will be here for Saturday and Sunday.

Other than the system described above, both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are quiet.

Today in weather history- October 19, 1844- A tremendous storm pummels the lower Great Lakes with hurricane force wind sending water from the Great Lakes into Buffalo, drowning as many as 200 people in the area. An unusual event to be sure...

10/18- Record Breaker

Good Tuesday all-

Today and tomorrow are going to feature record breaking warmth with highs in the low 80s! That's really remarkable for this late in October as we head into the time of year where it wouldn't be completely shocking to see the first flakes in Connecticut- in fact, one year ago today, exactly that happened- the first flurries of 2015-16 fell on this date last year for most. The weather could not be more different. That said, unfortunately, this cannot last, and after tomorrow we likely won't see 80s again until at least April so enjoy it while it lasts- this weekend many towns will have a tough time getting out of the 50s and it will be windy to boot...ouch. As for precipitation...showers are certainly possible Thursday with a cold front, and Friday as well depending on how a couple of lows interact (one of which will probably be Tropical Storm Otto) near or over our region. Don't worry- this won't be a tropical storm or anything- but it could enhance the moisture a bit as we head for the weekend.

Other than soon-to-be Otto, the Atlantic and Pacific are both quiet today.

Today in weather history- October 18, 2005- Tropical Storm Wilma, the record-tying 21st named storm of 2005, forms in the south-central Caribbean. Wilma would rapidly intensify over the next several days and eventually become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, packing 185mph winds and pressure of 882mb...yikes. Eventually taking a path across Florida at category 3 intensity, Wilma remains the most recent major hurricane to make a US landfall (Matthew missed doing so by about 40 miles)

10/13- Unfortunate History for Bermuda, Quiet for Us

Good Thursday all-

First things first- we have to pray for Bermuda today as they are suddenly staring down the barrel into a category 4 hurricane after Nicole unexpectedly rapidly intensified overnight. A category four has never hit Bermuda in recorded history...so this is a really, really nasty situation for them- the nightmare scenario really. It would be genuinely tough to have a worse storm for them if you tried.


^^Category 4 Hurricane Nicole heading directly for Bermuda. It's current motion would take it almost perfectly over the island


On a more pleasant note, we can expect very nice conditions here in Connecticut for the next week. There are two chances for rain- the first comes later tonight as a front moves through but it will be limited indeed. The better chance is Monday, which looks quite damp at the moment. As for temperatures...we have high 60s to low 70s today, lower 60s tomorrow and Saturday, mid 60s Sunday, and then 70s early next week. These numbers are slightly above the average of 65 for this time of year for the most part.

Aside from the catastrophe developing for Bermuda, both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet. The next name on the Atlantic list is Otto.

Weather history is being made today in Bermuda, which will be much more important than anything that happened on past October 13ths.

10/12- Clear and Cool Reigns

Good Wednesday all-

Wow, there really is nothing to say here. Seriously- temperatures will be in the mid-60s, with partly sunny skies today...tomorrow...and for the next five days. The only bumps in the road within the next week are some rain showers both Monday and Tuesday next week...and of course, both are iffy this far out. There really is not much rain in the forecast and we desperately need it- we are currently running over ten inches below average for the year so far.

Category 2 Hurricane Nicole is going to hit Bermuda tomorrow, and likely be a very, very severe storm for them- we need to keep them in our thoughts in the next few days. It could be a rare direct hit on the tiny island- with a serious storm surge as well. Yikes...

The Pacific is quiet at this time.

Today in weather history- October 12, 1962- The strongest storm on record for the region clobbers the Pacific northwest with hurricane force winds (gusts to well over 100mph!) and intense rainfall, Countless trees fall, and 48 people are killed by the storm with over $200 million (1962USD) in damage is recorded. Such a storm, although rare, is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for the region...and likely will happen once a century or so.

10/11- Cold

Good Tuesday all-

Well, it's exceptionally chilly out there, but my house in Naugatuck at 33 appears to be the cool spot, but still it's very nippy out there. I hope those plants were covered as frost has been widespread this morning. In fact, I'd suspect that you can get maybe another week out of your garden before we get to the point where the weather becomes simply unsustainable. Otherwise...we can expect no precipitation in the next week, with highs consistently in the mid to occasionally upper 60s. Let's hope we can get rain soon though- we desperately need it!

Tropical Storm Nicole is going to impact Bermuda as a hurricane in a couple of days, and the island is under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch- the center of the storm could hit the island tomorrow as a category 1 hurricane. Otherwise, the basin is quiet for now, although models hint at a more active pattern in about a week.

The Pacific is quiet at this time, though two systems have some development risk without posing a threat to land in the near future.

Today in weather history- October 11- Well, nothing has really happened on this day...so just enjoy your day!

10/10- Where's the Rain?

Good Monday all-

Happy Columbus Day!

Well, this blog post will be extremely short and easy to write, as there are no significant weather systems coming through our region for the next ten days. That's really tough to do, and we do not need that to happen now as we are still in a significant drought (although the big time rain yesterday certainly helped!). That was a combination of Matthew coming a bit further north than expected and an excellent job by the front to tap into the tropical moisture. We're left with partly sunny conditions and highs in the 60s, with lows generally in the high 30s or low 40s. These temperatures are very near the average for this time of year. Be careful with your plants tonight though...we're heading down to the low to mid 30s, and it wouldn't surprise me if tonight was the killer freeze in the higher elevations of Litchfield County...so cover them up and get ready for a rather nippy evening.

Also, keep Bermuda in your thoughts throughout this week as they look likely to take a direct hit from what will be Hurricane Nicole.

Today in weather history- October 10, 1804- Goshen, CT- located in far northwest Litchfield county, manages to pick up a foot of snow from an extremely powerful coastal system that dropped even higher amounts in northern New England- including three feet on top of the Green Mountains.

10/7- Ridiculous Forecast for Matthew

Happy Friday everyone-

Hurricane Matthew is paralleling the Florida coast this morning, and is rapidly approaching Cape Canaveral with winds near 120mph, a major hurricane. The eye may stay just offshore, but it's going to be extremely, extremely close. That said, it's still not at all a good situation for the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and thoughts continue to go out to them.

As for us, the weather looks great except for a cold front that might have its' precip enhanced a bit by Matthew, but certainly not anything like the storm would have been if it had paid SNE a visit. In the end, we dodged a bullet at the expense of the southeast. Otherwise, highs will be in the upper 60s/low 70s with partly sunny conditions for almost the entirety of the next week.

Weather history is being made today, so please keep those in the path of Matthew in your thoughts this weekend. If I see any noteworthy changes to the forecast, then I will let you know!

10/6- Worst Possible Hurricane for Florida?

Good Thursday all-

Well, we have boring weather here for the next several days- my forecast is exactly the same as it was yesterday. Our thoughts go out to Florida today, and as many of us have relatives that live down there, here's a closer look

Hurricane Matthew is heading for South Florida, where it looks like one of the top 5 hurricanes to ever achieve US landfall is going to be striking tonight and tomorrow. Winds are forecasted to be 145, which is awfully near category 5 intensity. They can expect some extreme winds, surge, and we really, really have to keep them in our thoughts. This could well be the strongest hurricane to hit land since 1992's Hurricane Andrew.

Elsewhere, Nicole is nearly a hurricane, and should be watched as it begins to do what I like to call tropical meteorologists bane of existence- the Fujiwara effect, which causes two nearby hurricanes to spin around each other counter clockwise, potentially reintroducing south Florida to Matthew around Monday.

Unfortunately, from a meteorological standpoint, it's genuinely difficult to think of a worse scenario for the east coast of Florida. An extreme hurricane moving exactly parallel to the east coast of Florida has been my nightmare scenario for them for a while, as the surge will be extreme. Please contact your friends and family down there- they have never experienced anything like this one.

Today in weather history- October 6, 2016- Hurricane Matthew will begin its' approach to Florida, and this is a truly historic event, one that will live for a generation for Florida. Matthew will soon be held in the great annals of Florida hurricane history, right up there with Charley, Ivan, Andrew, etc.

10/5- ALL CLEAR ON MATTHEW- HAIL KING EURO- Nightmare scenario for Florida though...Loop de loop?

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the track yesterday seemed to get better and better for us with each model run. From the morning...when the models agreed on an intense hurricane for Connecticut...to now...where the models show a loop de loop near Florida. The jet stream is just too flat for a move up to our area, and I am comfortable sounding the all clear for this weekend- although it will still be absolutely pouring on Sunday as a strong cold front moves through and we look to be well below average for the foreseeable future. In fact, that air mass is chilly enough that it may somewhere down the line allow the first flakes of 2016-17 to fly, but that still is way out there.

As for Matthew, it's genuinely difficult to predict a worse scenario for Florida. The GFS is particularly weird but entirely possible, where it does basically parallels Florida moving north...stops...and then does the same thing in the reverse direction. A good path example would be Jeanne 2004-


^^^The path of 2004's Hurricane Jeanne. Matthew's loop would be further to the west and closer to Florida.

There is a very real chance that Matthew makes landfall in the southeast as a major hurricane. If it does so on Friday...it would end a 4001 day stretch without a major hurricane landfalling in the US- the last one was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

As for us, expect a few beautiful days here, but a total washout is likely for Sunday due to that cold front that has been discussed earlier. Until then, you can rest comfortably knowing that Matthew has now got about a 5% chance of hitting us...so I can drop the severe storm watch.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nicole unexpectedly formed yesterday but the only land area threatened by this system is Bermuda. Another tropical wave will try to develop as it traverses the Caribbean, but it will have a tough road ahead of it as Matthew just churned the waters up. In any event, the next name on the list is Otto.

Today in weather history- October 5, 1638- For the second time in four years, a large hurricane strikes New England. Although not as strong as the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 (the strongest in New England since European colonization), countless trees are still blown down and severe damage is reported.

10/4- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Matthew Threat Increasing

Good Tuesday all-

Well, I've said from the beginning that today would be the day that we start seeing a bit more model consensus, and sure enough we are, and that is not necessarily a good thing as the models trended way, way west yesterday and it now looks like we are flirting with the worst possible solution, not just for us in SNE, but the entire eastern seaboard. A high pressure now appears that it may block the out to sea solution, and if it does there really is no way out. Additionally...if the jet stream has a nice size dip, the storm will be forced north and straight into southern New England...and this solution appears rather likely at the moment- the threat has certainly increased dramatically since yesterday morning, the last time I blogged. My thoughts are that we are going to be dealing with a significant hurricane in Connecticut around Sunday. Now we have to deal with the question of "how bad will it be". That depends on the exact track when it gets up here, which, frankly, will not be known for quite some time more. Although a direct landfall is certainly not the most likely solution at the moment...it still has a double-digit percent chance of occurring (I'd put it at about 1 in 4, which is similar to what the GFS ensembles suggest). The bottom line though is that it doesn't matter- if the storm is anywhere between Manhattan and Cape Cod we would be dealing with a nasty solution indeed, and I think that this is now a threat of near or greater than 50%. The out to sea solution today remains on the table, but it appears significantly less likely than the impact scenario. This is easily the biggest threat since Hurricane Sandy for New England, and we have many questions that still need to be answered in the coming days.

In the meantime, Matthew currently has 145mph wind and is approaching landfall in Haiti...which is a complete nightmare. This will be easily their worst hurricane in half a century or more, and my thoughts go out to them, as well as people in the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern US coastline between Miami and the Outer Banks, who appear to have no escape route at all in getting the storm to spare them significant trouble.

Today's weather will be partly cloudy with highs in the 60s, with partly sunny skies the rest of the week with highs in the 70s until Matthew strikes on Sunday.





^^^Models coming into agreement on a high impact storm for Connecticut

10/3- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Stormy Today, Watching Mattew

Good Monday all-

Well, here we go- a very long week of tracking the weather is here as we have to watch Matthew very closely. For the last 24 hours, the trend has been for a lesser impact here in New England, but there are still plenty of models that are trying to bring the storm either very close to or into Connecticut over the weekend. We should have a better idea around Wednesday, but until then we'll be waiting and watching...

As for today, temperatures will be nice but that's about all- rain is likely today on and off as the cutoff low finally departs our region to the east. Beyond that, we're going to be partly cloudy with highs in the high 60s and low 70s for the rest of the week with no chance of precipitation until our close encounter of the Matthew kind later in the weekend (it looks like most impacts would be felt on Sunday if he pays us a visit).

All in all...keep an eye out today and enjoy the next several days...but have your hurricane plans ready. My general discussion from yesterday is still valid, but not the model runs- I would avoid looking at those- I'll have more updates through the week.

Other than Matthew, no Atlantic development is likely. Additionally, for the first time in a very very long time, the Pacific is completely quiet.

Today in weather history- October 3, 1841- Middletown, CT somehow manages to receive 18" of snow thanks to an extremely powerful hurricane or nor'easter moving off shore to the east...yes it is extremely, extremely tough to get so much stuff so early in the year but...it's possible.

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Not Irene or Sandy, Matthew could be new CT hurricane king

Good Sunday all-

Oh boy did the models trend not in our favor the last 24 hours. The Euro came way west at 12z yesterday, which raised my eyebrows, but didn't really mean all that much as it was still out to sea, while the GFS continued to paint a dire scenario for CT. Overnight, the GFS jogged east out to sea, which led one to think that it would be a miss but...the Euro then came in with the earlier GFS solutions. Ugh- complex- but now, and this is brand new, the GFS that came out moments ago is the furthest west run it has had ever, with a direct landfall in Bridgeport or so as a very high end category 2 or low end category 3 storm. Such a scenario would be worse than any storm since the legendary Long Island Express of 1938...and possibly rivaling that in intensity. A truly historic event.


^^ 06z GFS showing a category 2/3 hurricane in Bridgeport

now for the Euro



^^12z Euro way out to sea



^^^Newest Euro. Obviously, this is much closer and is a mid-range cat 3 in that location...ouch.

This is the big one folks. it's by far the biggest threat since Sandy, and possibly even longer. There is a clear path that could make this the new king of New England hurricanes, potentially even dethroning 1938. Please keep an extremely close eye on this as we head through the week. Check your hurricane plans and prepare for a storm the likes of which we have NEVER been threatened with before at this close (6 days out now) range.

We are coming closer to locking down the track. By Tuesday we should have a pretty good idea. You know how much I think storms are easy to describe but...I truly cannot do so. I've always known it was possible, but a once in 250 year event is not something you ever prepare to forecast.

Again, this is a threat to the extent that we have never truly had before. Keep eyes on both my blog, the NHC website, and other media sources. Get the hurricane plans out, buy flashlights, generators, etc. and prepare to be without power for an extended period. It's going to be very tough to dodge this one.

Thankfully, we still have a week to prepare and things can still change, but it's getting less likely by the minute.

I will update again with the evening model runs tonight

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Matthew POTENTIALLY a historic storm for entire east coast

Good Saturday all-

Oh boy, things are escalating big time. It's a battle of the computer models to be sure, but there are a few things we know for sure.

1- Matthew became a CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE overnight, the first one recorded in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

2- It will be moving SLOWLY west and then north, eventually striking Jamaica and eastern Cuba, entering the Bahamas.

3- We have a serious battle of the models going on. The GFS, which has a nightmare scenario for the entire east coast, where the system stalls in the Bahamas, becomes a high end cat 5 just east of Florida, then gets captured by a front which sends it flying up the coast and strikes Connecticut directly as the strongest hurricane since 1635...yeah NOT good. The Euro, meanwhile, turns it more to the east and flies it out to sea, while the CMC is in between both options with a historically strong hurricane for central Maine.

4- If, and needless to say this is a big if, this would be worse than both Irene and Sandy, and Gloria, and be only able to be compared to the Great Hurricane of '38. This is a serious, serious risk folks, and we need to pay very, very close attention to this one. Keep your fingers crossed.

5- For those of you wondering, the threat is currently larger than it was at any point last year from Hurricane Joaquin.