Well, the track yesterday seemed to get better and better for us with each model run. From the morning...when the models agreed on an intense hurricane for Connecticut...to now...where the models show a loop de loop near Florida. The jet stream is just too flat for a move up to our area, and I am comfortable sounding the all clear for this weekend- although it will still be absolutely pouring on Sunday as a strong cold front moves through and we look to be well below average for the foreseeable future. In fact, that air mass is chilly enough that it may somewhere down the line allow the first flakes of 2016-17 to fly, but that still is way out there.
As for Matthew, it's genuinely difficult to predict a worse scenario for Florida. The GFS is particularly weird but entirely possible, where it does basically parallels Florida moving north...stops...and then does the same thing in the reverse direction. A good path example would be Jeanne 2004-
^^^The path of 2004's Hurricane Jeanne. Matthew's loop would be further to the west and closer to Florida.
There is a very real chance that Matthew makes landfall in the southeast as a major hurricane. If it does so on Friday...it would end a 4001 day stretch without a major hurricane landfalling in the US- the last one was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
As for us, expect a few beautiful days here, but a total washout is likely for Sunday due to that cold front that has been discussed earlier. Until then, you can rest comfortably knowing that Matthew has now got about a 5% chance of hitting us...so I can drop the severe storm watch.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nicole unexpectedly formed yesterday but the only land area threatened by this system is Bermuda. Another tropical wave will try to develop as it traverses the Caribbean, but it will have a tough road ahead of it as Matthew just churned the waters up. In any event, the next name on the list is Otto.
Today in weather history- October 5, 1638- For the second time in four years, a large hurricane strikes New England. Although not as strong as the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 (the strongest in New England since European colonization), countless trees are still blown down and severe damage is reported.
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