Well, I've said from the beginning that today would be the day that we start seeing a bit more model consensus, and sure enough we are, and that is not necessarily a good thing as the models trended way, way west yesterday and it now looks like we are flirting with the worst possible solution, not just for us in SNE, but the entire eastern seaboard. A high pressure now appears that it may block the out to sea solution, and if it does there really is no way out. Additionally...if the jet stream has a nice size dip, the storm will be forced north and straight into southern New England...and this solution appears rather likely at the moment- the threat has certainly increased dramatically since yesterday morning, the last time I blogged. My thoughts are that we are going to be dealing with a significant hurricane in Connecticut around Sunday. Now we have to deal with the question of "how bad will it be". That depends on the exact track when it gets up here, which, frankly, will not be known for quite some time more. Although a direct landfall is certainly not the most likely solution at the moment...it still has a double-digit percent chance of occurring (I'd put it at about 1 in 4, which is similar to what the GFS ensembles suggest). The bottom line though is that it doesn't matter- if the storm is anywhere between Manhattan and Cape Cod we would be dealing with a nasty solution indeed, and I think that this is now a threat of near or greater than 50%. The out to sea solution today remains on the table, but it appears significantly less likely than the impact scenario. This is easily the biggest threat since Hurricane Sandy for New England, and we have many questions that still need to be answered in the coming days.
In the meantime, Matthew currently has 145mph wind and is approaching landfall in Haiti...which is a complete nightmare. This will be easily their worst hurricane in half a century or more, and my thoughts go out to them, as well as people in the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern US coastline between Miami and the Outer Banks, who appear to have no escape route at all in getting the storm to spare them significant trouble.
Today's weather will be partly cloudy with highs in the 60s, with partly sunny skies the rest of the week with highs in the 70s until Matthew strikes on Sunday.
^^^Models coming into agreement on a high impact storm for Connecticut
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