SEVERE STORM WATCH- Not Irene or Sandy, Matthew could be new CT hurricane king

Good Sunday all-

Oh boy did the models trend not in our favor the last 24 hours. The Euro came way west at 12z yesterday, which raised my eyebrows, but didn't really mean all that much as it was still out to sea, while the GFS continued to paint a dire scenario for CT. Overnight, the GFS jogged east out to sea, which led one to think that it would be a miss but...the Euro then came in with the earlier GFS solutions. Ugh- complex- but now, and this is brand new, the GFS that came out moments ago is the furthest west run it has had ever, with a direct landfall in Bridgeport or so as a very high end category 2 or low end category 3 storm. Such a scenario would be worse than any storm since the legendary Long Island Express of 1938...and possibly rivaling that in intensity. A truly historic event.


^^ 06z GFS showing a category 2/3 hurricane in Bridgeport

now for the Euro



^^12z Euro way out to sea



^^^Newest Euro. Obviously, this is much closer and is a mid-range cat 3 in that location...ouch.

This is the big one folks. it's by far the biggest threat since Sandy, and possibly even longer. There is a clear path that could make this the new king of New England hurricanes, potentially even dethroning 1938. Please keep an extremely close eye on this as we head through the week. Check your hurricane plans and prepare for a storm the likes of which we have NEVER been threatened with before at this close (6 days out now) range.

We are coming closer to locking down the track. By Tuesday we should have a pretty good idea. You know how much I think storms are easy to describe but...I truly cannot do so. I've always known it was possible, but a once in 250 year event is not something you ever prepare to forecast.

Again, this is a threat to the extent that we have never truly had before. Keep eyes on both my blog, the NHC website, and other media sources. Get the hurricane plans out, buy flashlights, generators, etc. and prepare to be without power for an extended period. It's going to be very tough to dodge this one.

Thankfully, we still have a week to prepare and things can still change, but it's getting less likely by the minute.

I will update again with the evening model runs tonight