Friday, February 28, 2014
*CRITICAL MONDAY STORM UPDATE- NOT FOR SNOW LOVERS
Looking at the new data, not good if you like snow. Have to see the new runs, but if nothing else my numbers drop drastically with this one. As of now, doesn't look like more than 4-8" but that could certainly change. Midnight runs tonight are going to be crucial with storm now over land. Next model run at 1030.
2/28- In which snow lovers rejoice!
Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!!!!
The southward trend I was concerned about on the models last night has stopped entirely...and a major to historical snowstorm is now very likely for Monday's timeframe. My numbers appear they were correct the entire time...and I hold steady with my predictions for today. On another note, it is COOOLD this morning and I hope everyone bundles up! Wind chills today are probably going to be below 0 all day and it will certainly feel like the approaching storm. There is now no situation in which I could envision schools being open on Monday if the storm comes as predicted and there is a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Monday- with only a 10 percent chance of the storm missing. If trends continue, I may be comfortable calling the snow day later today. I will update again later today after examining the 12z and 18z model runs at about 6 PM this evening. Until then, enjoy the end of the work/school week!
Today in weather history- February 28, 2012- A major snowstorm hits Greece of all places, where Athens drops to 36 degrees...
The southward trend I was concerned about on the models last night has stopped entirely...and a major to historical snowstorm is now very likely for Monday's timeframe. My numbers appear they were correct the entire time...and I hold steady with my predictions for today. On another note, it is COOOLD this morning and I hope everyone bundles up! Wind chills today are probably going to be below 0 all day and it will certainly feel like the approaching storm. There is now no situation in which I could envision schools being open on Monday if the storm comes as predicted and there is a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Monday- with only a 10 percent chance of the storm missing. If trends continue, I may be comfortable calling the snow day later today. I will update again later today after examining the 12z and 18z model runs at about 6 PM this evening. Until then, enjoy the end of the work/school week!
Today in weather history- February 28, 2012- A major snowstorm hits Greece of all places, where Athens drops to 36 degrees...
Thursday, February 27, 2014
From WFSB
This is exactly as I see it right now
Snow will likely develop Sunday night as a storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. More snow is likely on Monday and it could really add up. The Monday morning commute could be adversely impacted and perhaps the evening commute as well. The snow may not end until Monday night. How much snow we'll have to plow and shovel on Monday will depend on the exact storm track, as usual. One of our computer guidance models, the GFS, is putting out more than 0.75" of liquid equivalent for portions of the state. That means there is the potential for more than 6" of snow. However, if the storm takes a more southerly track, snowfall totals will be less. This is something we'll have to watch closely tomorrow and throughout the weekend.
I 100% agree with the above. I really did speak too soon with amounts. At this stage I encourage you to not listen to anybody's maps until Sat PM...The numbers I put out are generally the highest possible impact because I have found most people want to prepare for and expect the worst and then be happy if/when it turns out to be less. For what it is worth though, the 18z GFS model shows the biggest snowstorm yet for any model run in the last week for Connecticut with over 2 feet in most areas. Way too many unknowns at this point- stay tuned! I shall stay put on numbers because of consistency for the time being
Snow will likely develop Sunday night as a storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. More snow is likely on Monday and it could really add up. The Monday morning commute could be adversely impacted and perhaps the evening commute as well. The snow may not end until Monday night. How much snow we'll have to plow and shovel on Monday will depend on the exact storm track, as usual. One of our computer guidance models, the GFS, is putting out more than 0.75" of liquid equivalent for portions of the state. That means there is the potential for more than 6" of snow. However, if the storm takes a more southerly track, snowfall totals will be less. This is something we'll have to watch closely tomorrow and throughout the weekend.
I 100% agree with the above. I really did speak too soon with amounts. At this stage I encourage you to not listen to anybody's maps until Sat PM...The numbers I put out are generally the highest possible impact because I have found most people want to prepare for and expect the worst and then be happy if/when it turns out to be less. For what it is worth though, the 18z GFS model shows the biggest snowstorm yet for any model run in the last week for Connecticut with over 2 feet in most areas. Way too many unknowns at this point- stay tuned! I shall stay put on numbers because of consistency for the time being
Update on Monday
Could be a bit less than I was saying if current trends continue. Look I'll admit it- I am a fool to put out numbers so early. Will I continue doing so? Yes, but the fact remains that they will likely be dramatically shifted between now and the storm. I hold put for now, but don't be shocked if I come in lower tomorrow morning than I was this morning as the storm now looks to be trending so far south that it reduces the amount of snow we get. We'll see...but for now enjoy your evening!
2/27- Get ready for Franklin!
Good morning everyone- the snowstorm for next week is becoming more clear as I suspected. It seems the precipitation is now stronger and, although it is still a long duration event, there is enough of a lull on Tues that I think we'll only get one or two snow days out of this one, but make no mistake- this is going to probably be the season's biggest snowstorm so far. In fact, preliminary snowfall forecasts lead me to say roughly 14-25" with locally as much as 30" is a distinct possibility due to the slow-moving nature of what is going to be a classic New England nor'easter with block- the setup that produces the biggest possible snowstorm. This 14-25" region-wide is my first official forecast for the storm...but is very subject to change. I can also say with 70-80% confidence that schools will be closed on Monday, and either delayed or closed on Tuesday. Some computer models also indicate a second round of 5-10" of additional snow Tuesday night, which could effect schools on Wednesday, but the second round is too far out to make a call on. Either way, make no mistake- this storm will certainly be Franklin, and Winter Storm Watches should be coming out later tonight or tomorrow. My forecast confidence in this outcome is 75%. To make matters worse, that ushers in freezing air and we may be back below zero by next week. I have no clue what the last time CT had below 0 temps in March was, but it certainly isn't recent! Stay warm today and next week all!
Today in weather history- February 27, 1991- Bishop, California recieves 0.04" of rain. The significance? It was the first measurable precipitation there in 156 days!
Today in weather history- February 27, 1991- Bishop, California recieves 0.04" of rain. The significance? It was the first measurable precipitation there in 156 days!
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Oddball storm becoming more likely...could last for days...
I am updating tonight because I think it is safe to say an oddball snowstorm is likely for yes, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Weds morning, according to the new models. Even though this storm would never actually produce heavy snow, obviously a .5"/hour snowfall in a 72 hour period could produce several feet of snow, so stay tuned!
2/26- Oddball snowstorm becoming likely quickly...
Good morning all and Happy Wednesday!
Today's storm stayed out to sea as predicted, but frigid temperatures are the tradeoff we get for it! The arctic high pressure system that deflected the storm is firmly in place and that's why we deal with temps that will leave you shivering the next few days- bundle up! Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday is when things get interesting, if not complex. I can already tell this is going to be an odd, bizzare, strange, and weird weekend for me. This storm is not a nor'easter, but it will still likely be a significant event, not because it will be especially heavy all the time...but it could be snowing moderately for 60 hours in a row! Some models indicate light/moderate snow from noon on Sunday to 6 AM on Tuesday morning. This would accumulate as the temps are going to be miles below freezing, and thus it is going to be several inches with early indications that some areas may gradually receive up to over 6 inches. This, of course, is very early and subject to change, especially with such an odd system (which is basically a stalled frontal boundary that sits over our area for a really long time). The odds now do favor a significant snow event Sunday-Tuesday, but stay tuned!
Today in weather history- February 26, 1910- Laconia, Washington recieves 129" of snow in the biggest snowstorm on record to hit that state.
Today's storm stayed out to sea as predicted, but frigid temperatures are the tradeoff we get for it! The arctic high pressure system that deflected the storm is firmly in place and that's why we deal with temps that will leave you shivering the next few days- bundle up! Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday is when things get interesting, if not complex. I can already tell this is going to be an odd, bizzare, strange, and weird weekend for me. This storm is not a nor'easter, but it will still likely be a significant event, not because it will be especially heavy all the time...but it could be snowing moderately for 60 hours in a row! Some models indicate light/moderate snow from noon on Sunday to 6 AM on Tuesday morning. This would accumulate as the temps are going to be miles below freezing, and thus it is going to be several inches with early indications that some areas may gradually receive up to over 6 inches. This, of course, is very early and subject to change, especially with such an odd system (which is basically a stalled frontal boundary that sits over our area for a really long time). The odds now do favor a significant snow event Sunday-Tuesday, but stay tuned!
Today in weather history- February 26, 1910- Laconia, Washington recieves 129" of snow in the biggest snowstorm on record to hit that state.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
2/25- March to come in like a lion...and go out like one too?
Good afternoon everyone, and enjoy the storm free week because this pattern is about to change for the worse if you don't like snow. Indeed, it seems the nor'easter snow machine is about to be turned back on for Monday, and again not one or two but several more times after that, and the cold certainly isn't going anywhere...if some models are correct, we may not even see highs above freezing before March 20th or later! Yikes! The storm tomorrow glances us with light snow tonight, but it won't accumulate at all (maybe 1" if you're lucky) and so there is only a low chance...10 percent...of a delay tomorrow. Thursday and Friday are dry but insanely cold with overnight lows below 0 degrees and highs not reaching the 20s for most of the area. Some flurries around this weekend followed by several chances of large to historical snowstorms next week and beyond...Enjoy the precip-free weather while you still can. As I hear the groans, let me tell you this- this is, by a clear mile, the coldest winter in recent memory and it is going to hold on for a ridiculously long time. It is no longer a stretch to see below freezing temps and snow in April this year, especially early on in that time frame. The positive note is that mother nature likes to balance out extremes. Does this mean we are in for a longer than normal summer this year? Maybe, but maybe not. There are several plausible explanations for why this winter has been "snow" awful, but I'll discuss them when we finally get through what has been arguably the harshest winter in decades in terms of cold and snow. I'll have my preliminary forecasts on the Monday nor'easter on Saturday, while I will still update over the next few days!
Today in weather history- February 25, 1987- A strong low pressure system produces ridiculous snowfall in Arizona- Flagstaff gets 2 feet of snow in 24 hours, and Alpine, AZ picks up an insane 82" of snow. Tornadoes also form in California, including a waterspout that turns over a cabin cruiser
Today in weather history- February 25, 1987- A strong low pressure system produces ridiculous snowfall in Arizona- Flagstaff gets 2 feet of snow in 24 hours, and Alpine, AZ picks up an insane 82" of snow. Tornadoes also form in California, including a waterspout that turns over a cabin cruiser
Monday, February 24, 2014
2/24/14- In which we finally seem to catch a break
Good Monday morning everyone (If such a thing even exists ;) )
That snowstorm discussed yesterday for Wednesday....is going to miss us by about 30 miles SE it appears for now. I think there is still a 10% chance of more than that, but there will likely be no snow days this week at all. The problem day is Weds, where I am forecasting a nuisance snow event (1-3") during this time frame. It may cause delays but I am not at all sold on that and there is probably only about a 30-40% chance of that at the present time (my predictions will be updated throughout the day). In other news, big cold (temps will be negative by the end of the week) and a big snowstorm is possible for Saturday, but that is obviously too far out for specifics. Enjoy the day!
Today in weather history- February 24, 1969- A "100 hour" storm hits New England, dropping a rediculous amount of snow through the region. 26.3" fall at Logan Airport, their biggest snowstorm on record. Also, Pinkham Notch, NH picks up a ridiculous 77" of snow (over 6 FEET!)
That snowstorm discussed yesterday for Wednesday....is going to miss us by about 30 miles SE it appears for now. I think there is still a 10% chance of more than that, but there will likely be no snow days this week at all. The problem day is Weds, where I am forecasting a nuisance snow event (1-3") during this time frame. It may cause delays but I am not at all sold on that and there is probably only about a 30-40% chance of that at the present time (my predictions will be updated throughout the day). In other news, big cold (temps will be negative by the end of the week) and a big snowstorm is possible for Saturday, but that is obviously too far out for specifics. Enjoy the day!
Today in weather history- February 24, 1969- A "100 hour" storm hits New England, dropping a rediculous amount of snow through the region. 26.3" fall at Logan Airport, their biggest snowstorm on record. Also, Pinkham Notch, NH picks up a ridiculous 77" of snow (over 6 FEET!)
Sunday, February 23, 2014
2/23/14
Good morning everyone and, for many, happy final day of February vacation!
Hope you enjoyed the warmer weather while it stayed, because it is going, going, GONE! In fact, a massive cool down is on the way thanks to our best friend the Polar Vortex, and thus we have to watch out for things such as big snowstorms and frigid temps. Both of which could well occur this week, and I will start with the former. Wednesday could be significant trouble for the area if some computer models are correct. There is little doubt now that a coastal low will form, the track is the question. What is not in doubt is that any precip that falls would be entirely snow, as the temps will simply be far too cold for anything else. Currently, my accumulation thoughts would be 3-6" with locally up to 8", but this is still a tad far out for that to be anywhere near my final prediction. Regardless of the outcome Wednesday, we go back to the freezer for the end of the week, especially on Friday, where overnight lows will be around -3 and daytime highs may not even reach the teens! Yikes! To make matters worse, another snowstorm tries to take aim at Connecticut next weekend...stay tuned!
I am home all day today to watch the Daytona 500, so I may update if anything significant happens!
Today in weather history- February 23, 1802- One of the biggest snowstorms in recorded history slams New England, and some areas south of Boston receieve 50" of snow
BONUS HISTORY- February 23, 1921- Snow falls in Athens, Greece!
Hope you enjoyed the warmer weather while it stayed, because it is going, going, GONE! In fact, a massive cool down is on the way thanks to our best friend the Polar Vortex, and thus we have to watch out for things such as big snowstorms and frigid temps. Both of which could well occur this week, and I will start with the former. Wednesday could be significant trouble for the area if some computer models are correct. There is little doubt now that a coastal low will form, the track is the question. What is not in doubt is that any precip that falls would be entirely snow, as the temps will simply be far too cold for anything else. Currently, my accumulation thoughts would be 3-6" with locally up to 8", but this is still a tad far out for that to be anywhere near my final prediction. Regardless of the outcome Wednesday, we go back to the freezer for the end of the week, especially on Friday, where overnight lows will be around -3 and daytime highs may not even reach the teens! Yikes! To make matters worse, another snowstorm tries to take aim at Connecticut next weekend...stay tuned!
I am home all day today to watch the Daytona 500, so I may update if anything significant happens!
Today in weather history- February 23, 1802- One of the biggest snowstorms in recorded history slams New England, and some areas south of Boston receieve 50" of snow
BONUS HISTORY- February 23, 1921- Snow falls in Athens, Greece!
Saturday, February 22, 2014
2/22/14
Good morning and HAPPY WEEKEND!!!!
Today is the pick of the next 7 days for sure! Highs will likely be in the high 40s all across the region with bright sunshine. The one knock on this is that yesterday's rain refroze overnight, so the roads will be very icy until we warm the temperatures up. That's the good news...the bad news is that the Polar Vortex returns for the end of the week, with negative overnight lows and highs in the low teens on Thurs and Fri! Yikes! Also important to note is that, for such a dramatic temperature swing, there has to be a storm...and this time it's Wednesday. There is a chance for a major nor'easter Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could have far reaching impacts in the Northeast with several inches (or feet) of snow, flight delays/cancellations, and school closures for Wednesday. We are getting closer to this date now, and I should be able to throw out some early accumulation thoughts tomorrow. Until then, enjoy this mild weather before the temps plunge through the floor!
Today in weather history- February 22, 2000- A quick moving snow squall drops 3-5" of snow in the capital region, triggering a 116-car pileup, the biggest ever on the east coast. One person is killed and fifteen others are injured in the chain reaction
Today is the pick of the next 7 days for sure! Highs will likely be in the high 40s all across the region with bright sunshine. The one knock on this is that yesterday's rain refroze overnight, so the roads will be very icy until we warm the temperatures up. That's the good news...the bad news is that the Polar Vortex returns for the end of the week, with negative overnight lows and highs in the low teens on Thurs and Fri! Yikes! Also important to note is that, for such a dramatic temperature swing, there has to be a storm...and this time it's Wednesday. There is a chance for a major nor'easter Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could have far reaching impacts in the Northeast with several inches (or feet) of snow, flight delays/cancellations, and school closures for Wednesday. We are getting closer to this date now, and I should be able to throw out some early accumulation thoughts tomorrow. Until then, enjoy this mild weather before the temps plunge through the floor!
Today in weather history- February 22, 2000- A quick moving snow squall drops 3-5" of snow in the capital region, triggering a 116-car pileup, the biggest ever on the east coast. One person is killed and fifteen others are injured in the chain reaction
Friday, February 21, 2014
2/21 update
Good morning and happy Friday!
The afternoon today could be very wild, with pouring rain, and possibly strong thunderstorms! It is very unusual to see this in February, but the culprit is a very powerful cold front that is going to drop temps down to near normal levels on Sunday, while leaving them fairly warm for tomorrow in the mid-40s. Today is the warmest day in many months, with temps pushing 50 in some areas today as well! It will feel nice for sure, but the melting snow could well cause some problems tomorrow morning as temps drop below freezing this evening. The next chance for any noteworthy snow is Wednesday, however a few snow showers are possible on Monday. Weds. doesn't look truly huge but it looks at least significant enough to cause problems. More trouble could be brewing for next weekend (March 1/2) but that is way too far off to even discuss at the present time. Happy weekend and, for some, happy Feb. break!
Today in weather history- February 21, 1918- The temperature in Granville, ND skyrockets from morning lows of -33 to over 50 degrees by afternoon thanks to ridiculously strong warm wind.
The afternoon today could be very wild, with pouring rain, and possibly strong thunderstorms! It is very unusual to see this in February, but the culprit is a very powerful cold front that is going to drop temps down to near normal levels on Sunday, while leaving them fairly warm for tomorrow in the mid-40s. Today is the warmest day in many months, with temps pushing 50 in some areas today as well! It will feel nice for sure, but the melting snow could well cause some problems tomorrow morning as temps drop below freezing this evening. The next chance for any noteworthy snow is Wednesday, however a few snow showers are possible on Monday. Weds. doesn't look truly huge but it looks at least significant enough to cause problems. More trouble could be brewing for next weekend (March 1/2) but that is way too far off to even discuss at the present time. Happy weekend and, for some, happy Feb. break!
Today in weather history- February 21, 1918- The temperature in Granville, ND skyrockets from morning lows of -33 to over 50 degrees by afternoon thanks to ridiculously strong warm wind.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
2/20 AM update
Good morning everyone!
As expected, there were many delays today because of the black ice that formed overnight last night and left a nightmarish situation on the roadways with tons of black ice in all areas. Many spinouts have been reported this morning, especially in and around Hartford, so be very careful if you drive today! Additionally, more freezing rain is possible tonight as the temps plummet overnight as a cold front moves through the area today, so there is a decent chance of a delay again tomorrow if this pans out. The next chances for snow appear to be a small amount Monday and potentially a very large amount Wednesday with a nor'easter, but that is way, way, way, way too far out to make a call on (My final call on that probably won't come until Monday!). Not much weather excitement other than the residual ice today, so have a great Thursday!
Today in weather history- February 20, 1993- A major winter storm hits the western US with incredible snowfall rates- Duck Creek Utah gets buried under 50" of snow in 48 hours, and Sioux City, Iowa gets 14" of snow in just 6 hours (averaging 2.3" snow/hour!)
As expected, there were many delays today because of the black ice that formed overnight last night and left a nightmarish situation on the roadways with tons of black ice in all areas. Many spinouts have been reported this morning, especially in and around Hartford, so be very careful if you drive today! Additionally, more freezing rain is possible tonight as the temps plummet overnight as a cold front moves through the area today, so there is a decent chance of a delay again tomorrow if this pans out. The next chances for snow appear to be a small amount Monday and potentially a very large amount Wednesday with a nor'easter, but that is way, way, way, way too far out to make a call on (My final call on that probably won't come until Monday!). Not much weather excitement other than the residual ice today, so have a great Thursday!
Today in weather history- February 20, 1993- A major winter storm hits the western US with incredible snowfall rates- Duck Creek Utah gets buried under 50" of snow in 48 hours, and Sioux City, Iowa gets 14" of snow in just 6 hours (averaging 2.3" snow/hour!)
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Delay possibility
Good evening everyone- I am updating tonight because there is a very real chance that schools are forced to delay openings tomorrow due to the black ice on the roads tonight. I was just out with my family and the roads are already very slippery, and I believe that it is unlikely that schools in central Connecticut will be able to open on time tomorrow. Thus, there is a high chance...65 percent...of schools delaying tomorrow. Have a great night everyone!
Well, that was interesting!
Well, most of the forecast area yesterday did fall solidly into the 4-8" snowfall that I got but there were many areas on the lower end. The highest amount was in a single, narrow line that included New Haven, North Haven, Wallingford, and Meriden, which received over a half foot of snow yesterday after getting trapped in the heaviest band for several hours (I measured 7" in my yard in Wallingford and snowfall rates at around 3"/hr). Other than this jackpot area, the statewide average was around 3 inches. Overall, though, I am satisfied with my forecast as I was higher than most news stations yet I was pretty darned accurate (NBC was nothing to 2"- oops!). Either way, believe it or not, more wintry mixed precip is likely through the day today in association with a warm front that is going to finally give temps a big boost up to near 50 degrees tomorrow and Friday, before a cool down Sat to near-normal temps. The next chance of a major snowstorm appears to be the middle of next week, with several opportunities thereafter as well. Enjoy your Wednesday!
Today in weather history- February 19, 1871- The first official weather forecast is issued by Cleveland Abbe of the signal corps service. He issues warnings for the great lakes region, including boating alerts
Today in weather history- February 19, 1871- The first official weather forecast is issued by Cleveland Abbe of the signal corps service. He issues warnings for the great lakes region, including boating alerts
Monday, February 17, 2014
Winter Weather Advisory for entire area
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...AND WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO RAIN BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE. TREE BRANCHES WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ MPS
-From NOAA
UPDATE- almost Franklin...
Good afternoon- the trends I am seeing have me convinced that 4-8" should be about right for the forecast area...with locally lower amounts in southern Middlesex county where mixing may occur. At the present time, WFSB is at 3-6" for the entire state except the immediate shoreline. If this goes up even a small amount (which it might as I think that 3" is too low), then the storm could well be named Franklin either late tonight or early tomorrow. Also, I believe that the reason we currently have no weather alert is because there is a debate on whether to issue a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory. Either way, I no longer see any way for schools to open on the immediate shoreline tomorrow either and there is now a high chance...near 100 percent...of a snow day inland and a high chance...80 percent...of a snow day on the coast, though more mixing would equal a higher likelihood of school. Unlike the last storm, these numbers should not be overly variable and are likely to remain right on the Warning/advisory line. We'll see what happens, and I'll post the weather alerts when they do come out. Until then, enjoy your afternoon!
Time for snow day predictions...
Good afternoon everyone! We are expecting a somewhat significant snowstorm later this evening and as a result it's time for me to issue my snow day forecasts. Let's start with the obvious- many schools have no school tomorrow for February break and thus there is (obviously) a 100% chance they will close. That's all for now....nah just kidding! My thinking is that, even though many are only looking at 3-6" with locally up to 8", the timing couldn't be much worse for schools as it happens all morning tomorrow. Even though it's gone by late afternoon, it will likely be too late for any schools in central Connecticut to open, except perhaps for the immediate shoreline where rain may mix in. Thus, for inland schools there is a high chance...70 percent...of a snow day tomorrow and for the shoreline there is a medium chance...40 percent...of a snow day tomorrow but a high chance...60 percent...of a delay tomorrow. There you go! If I see anything significant change throughout the day, I'll keep you updated!
Monday 2/17 update...sorry I missed yesterday!
Good morning and Happy President's Day everyone!
I hate to be the bearer of bad news for most, but another moderate (3-6") snowfall is on the way for tomorrow morning. A clipper system moving out of the midwest will pass through central CT tomorrow, and along with it will come the chance for a snowfall of the moderate variety, but it won't feel like too much considering how many huge snowfalls we've had so far this winter! Beyond that, a nice warmup is possible and the temps by the end of the week could be 50 degrees, which will feel great! Unfortunately, the trade off is pouring rain...oh well, you can't have it all!
The week ahead-
Today- Sunny, seasonable. Highs in the mid-30s
Tues- Heavy snow, 3-6" likely for everyone in the forecast area.
Weds, Thurs- Mild with scattered showers. Highs in the mid 40s
Fri- Heavy rain, but highs approaching if not exceeding 50!
Today in weather history- February 17, 2003- A blizzard hits the Northeast US, dropping between one and two feet of snow in our area. Baltimore records 26" of snow, the most on record, and NY records 25" of snow as well.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news for most, but another moderate (3-6") snowfall is on the way for tomorrow morning. A clipper system moving out of the midwest will pass through central CT tomorrow, and along with it will come the chance for a snowfall of the moderate variety, but it won't feel like too much considering how many huge snowfalls we've had so far this winter! Beyond that, a nice warmup is possible and the temps by the end of the week could be 50 degrees, which will feel great! Unfortunately, the trade off is pouring rain...oh well, you can't have it all!
The week ahead-
Today- Sunny, seasonable. Highs in the mid-30s
Tues- Heavy snow, 3-6" likely for everyone in the forecast area.
Weds, Thurs- Mild with scattered showers. Highs in the mid 40s
Fri- Heavy rain, but highs approaching if not exceeding 50!
Today in weather history- February 17, 2003- A blizzard hits the Northeast US, dropping between one and two feet of snow in our area. Baltimore records 26" of snow, the most on record, and NY records 25" of snow as well.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Middlesex County upgraded to Winter Storm Warning- near blizzard conditions possible
Good morning and happy weekend!
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Middlesex county, with which I agree. It would also not surprise me one bit to see these expanded westward through the morning as the nor'easter develops just off Cape Cod and pushes snow back into the area. The major problem, however, is that this forecast is extremely tough- a track 25 miles further west would bring a fully-fledged blizzard to Connecticut, while a track 25 miles east gives us very little. Further complicating things is the potential presence of what is known as a Norlun trough, a batch of heavy snow that detaches from the main storm and gives an area several times more snow than could be ordinarily expected from a certain storm track. Based on this...I upgrade to a significant snowfall for Connecticut. We are on the brink of naming this storm Franklin, and will do so if the 6" forecast comes even 10 miles west. Super fragile forecast! Beyond today, a smaller storm chance comes Tuesday, followed by a significant warmup in which temps may reach 50! Unfortunately, though, the polar vortex and several nor'easters lurk after this time, the first of which is Monday 2/24. Obviously, we are a week too far out for details on that. I'll keep you updated of course...enjoy your weekend!
Today in weather history- Feb 15, 1895- A record snowstorm buries the Gulf states as Brownsville, Texas (the southernmost town in Texas) picks up a record 6" of snow, and Galveston is buried in 16".
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Middlesex county, with which I agree. It would also not surprise me one bit to see these expanded westward through the morning as the nor'easter develops just off Cape Cod and pushes snow back into the area. The major problem, however, is that this forecast is extremely tough- a track 25 miles further west would bring a fully-fledged blizzard to Connecticut, while a track 25 miles east gives us very little. Further complicating things is the potential presence of what is known as a Norlun trough, a batch of heavy snow that detaches from the main storm and gives an area several times more snow than could be ordinarily expected from a certain storm track. Based on this...I upgrade to a significant snowfall for Connecticut. We are on the brink of naming this storm Franklin, and will do so if the 6" forecast comes even 10 miles west. Super fragile forecast! Beyond today, a smaller storm chance comes Tuesday, followed by a significant warmup in which temps may reach 50! Unfortunately, though, the polar vortex and several nor'easters lurk after this time, the first of which is Monday 2/24. Obviously, we are a week too far out for details on that. I'll keep you updated of course...enjoy your weekend!
Today in weather history- Feb 15, 1895- A record snowstorm buries the Gulf states as Brownsville, Texas (the southernmost town in Texas) picks up a record 6" of snow, and Galveston is buried in 16".
Friday, February 14, 2014
Concern increasing...major snowstorm becoming a distinct possibility tomorrow
Good evening everyone! Normally, I don't update this late, but the trends I have seen on recent computer models are, quite honestly, downright alarming and I see fit to significantly increase my snowfall totals for tomorrow as it appears the storm will get stronger further west...and thus deliver a healthy dose of snow to central Connecticut. My current forecast now calls for five to ten inches in Middlesex county and some areas could receive as much as one foot of snow depending on the track, especially in eastern sections. I expect the Winter Weather advisories in effect for central Connecticut to become Winter Storm Warnings this evening if current trends continue. Additionally, there is a good chance that we name this storm Franklin, which would make this the furthest down the name list we have gotten since 1995-96, and put us in serious danger of exhausting the name list this year, which only goes as far as H, and the end of this month and early March certainly appear to have 3 or more named storms in them. At this time there is a high chance...60 percent...of this storm being named tonight as the model runs continue to travel westward. If you are reading this Saturday morning...sorry for the nasty surprise, this one had us all fooled!
Breaking news from NOAA
...QUICK MOVING SNOW STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING... CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ078-080-151100- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0006.140215T1600Z-140216T0900Z/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 355 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
-Words from National Weather service
Saturday surprise!
Good morning everyone- The local news won the battle!
After about another 2-4" area-wide last night, Winter Storm Easton comes to a close, but not before closing all schools in Central Connecticut again except for Bridgeport and Bristol, both of which are delayed this morning. All in all, Fairfield county hit the jackpot here, with Fairfield itself reporting 14" of new snow, the most in the state. The storm stayed predominantly snow for all of Connecticut, which resulted in the elevated snow totals for southern areas of the state, as the expected changeover line did not make it into Connecticut until the precipitation had largely ended.
Focus now shifts to tomorrow and, believe it or not, another nor'easter type storm that develops of the coast and tries to shove heavy snow back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon. This will not be as big as Easton was, but a solid 3-6" snowfall is possible, the higher amounts further south and east. Thus, Southern Middlesex county will likely get it worst in my forecast area, and areas near the Mass border, such as Union, will get the least. Note that these numbers could go significantly up if the storm decides to track more west, but it isn't likely enough for me to give it more than a 30% chance of occurring. If I see anything major occur throughout the day, I will make sure to update! The next name on the winter storm list is Franklin. Although tomorrow will be close, I don't think we quite make naming criteria tomorrow.
Happy Valentine's Day everyone and enjoy the day off! (Unless you live in Bridgeport or Bristol)
Today in weather history- February 14, 1947- The first weather radar commissioned by the National Weather Service is set up in Washington DC, revolutionizing the way weather is forecasted and greatly improving forecast accuracy.
After about another 2-4" area-wide last night, Winter Storm Easton comes to a close, but not before closing all schools in Central Connecticut again except for Bridgeport and Bristol, both of which are delayed this morning. All in all, Fairfield county hit the jackpot here, with Fairfield itself reporting 14" of new snow, the most in the state. The storm stayed predominantly snow for all of Connecticut, which resulted in the elevated snow totals for southern areas of the state, as the expected changeover line did not make it into Connecticut until the precipitation had largely ended.
Focus now shifts to tomorrow and, believe it or not, another nor'easter type storm that develops of the coast and tries to shove heavy snow back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon. This will not be as big as Easton was, but a solid 3-6" snowfall is possible, the higher amounts further south and east. Thus, Southern Middlesex county will likely get it worst in my forecast area, and areas near the Mass border, such as Union, will get the least. Note that these numbers could go significantly up if the storm decides to track more west, but it isn't likely enough for me to give it more than a 30% chance of occurring. If I see anything major occur throughout the day, I will make sure to update! The next name on the winter storm list is Franklin. Although tomorrow will be close, I don't think we quite make naming criteria tomorrow.
Happy Valentine's Day everyone and enjoy the day off! (Unless you live in Bridgeport or Bristol)
Today in weather history- February 14, 1947- The first weather radar commissioned by the National Weather Service is set up in Washington DC, revolutionizing the way weather is forecasted and greatly improving forecast accuracy.
 |
| Image source: happy-valentinesday.org |
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Funky forecast for tonight...and Saturday trouble?
Good evening everyone! After most of central CT recieved between 5-10" of snow this morning, the second, more difficult to forecast round is set to begin shortly. The main problem, however, is where the heaviest axis of snow sets up. NOAA currently forecasts an additional 6-12" this evening, which would close all schools in central Connecticut. Most of the news forecasts, however, forecast very little. Personally, I would be more inclined to believe the low end of NOAA's forecast...and as such I expect 5-8" of additional snow tonight. Ordinarily, I would expect schools to be either delay 2 hours or close tomorrow (I would be right on the edge of forecasting) however...districts that have a half day tomorrow (Such as New Haven) will likely have to close regardless because, even if the snow falls in the lower end of the range and 2" fall...the roads will still be too slick to drive in since the day would be too short to count if the delay occurred. My forecast is that there is a high chance...90 percent...of districts with a half day closing tomorrow. For full day districts there is a high chance...60 percent...of another snow day tomorrow and a medium chance...40 percent...of having a delay. There is no way that any schools will be able to open on time.
Saturday's storm also is beginning to cause concern for Southern New England, as the GFS now forecasts a moderate (3-6") snowfall for Connecticut on Saturday...which could be disastrous on top of all this snow. I'll update in the morning!
Also, note that next week is February Break for New Haven Public Schools. It has already been announced this will not be effected even if school closes tomorrow. Despite this, I will continue to issue forecasts for school closings should storms come during that time period for viewers outside of the NHPS area.
Saturday's storm also is beginning to cause concern for Southern New England, as the GFS now forecasts a moderate (3-6") snowfall for Connecticut on Saturday...which could be disastrous on top of all this snow. I'll update in the morning!
Also, note that next week is February Break for New Haven Public Schools. It has already been announced this will not be effected even if school closes tomorrow. Despite this, I will continue to issue forecasts for school closings should storms come during that time period for viewers outside of the NHPS area.
Easton continues to overpreform as it shifts even further east...NOAA now calls for up to two feet of snow for central Connecticut...Yikes! That goes to show just how fickle the forecast can be at times and how you can never blindly trust computer models. The signs of a big snow event were always there if people used their intuition a bit better. I usually do have some reservations about going so much higher than the news stations, but I felt it was necessary to stick my neck out there this time, and I am very glad I did. We'll be buried by tomorrow morning!
Winter Storm Easton overpreforming...
Good morning everyone!
Our major nor'easter appears to be trending as a predominantly snow event for southern New England, and as such I am forced to raise my snowfall totals to one to two feet of snow for most areas, with 10 to 16 inches at the immediate shoreline and near blizzard conditions. The storm has developed a tad further east of the models, and will thus be colder than the predominant result of the models- most of which forecast 8-12" of snow, show the possibility of a major snowstorm. We'll see, but either way, schools are likely to close tomorrow due to the return thump tonight of another 4-6" possible...Enjoy the storm! I'll update this at noon with more information.
Today in weather history- February 13, 1958- Tallahassee, Florida receives 3" of snow in 5 hours, still the most significant snow event in Florida history
Our major nor'easter appears to be trending as a predominantly snow event for southern New England, and as such I am forced to raise my snowfall totals to one to two feet of snow for most areas, with 10 to 16 inches at the immediate shoreline and near blizzard conditions. The storm has developed a tad further east of the models, and will thus be colder than the predominant result of the models- most of which forecast 8-12" of snow, show the possibility of a major snowstorm. We'll see, but either way, schools are likely to close tomorrow due to the return thump tonight of another 4-6" possible...Enjoy the storm! I'll update this at noon with more information.
Today in weather history- February 13, 1958- Tallahassee, Florida receives 3" of snow in 5 hours, still the most significant snow event in Florida history
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
A Nasty surprise possible for interior CT
Good evening- I said earlier that if I saw any big trends in model data, I would let you know...and I hope that you like snow. There are some indications that the storm may stay mostly if not entirely snow for Connecticut...this would happen if the freezing line came when Connecticut experiences a lull in the action between 5 and 8 PM tomorrow night before another burst of heavy snow. Should this happen, my prediction of 8-16 is much too low. I am not sold on this, but do not rule out waking up to seeing the forecasters be eating crow with most areas waiting for two feet of snow instead of one with locally more due to banding. Again, not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility if models continue trending this way...I'll update once more tonight at 1030. Ordinarily, I would put school predictions here, but since nearly all schools in Central Connecticut have already closed for tomorrow. I will discuss Friday and, for the first time, I am confident that schools will have to close again on Friday- just too much cleanup and a longer lasting storm than originally anticipated. As I said earlier, this forecast was always super fragile, and it may have just broken.
2/12 PM Update on Easton
Good afternoon everyone, hope you had a good day!
Easton is going to be a hard hitter for all of Southern New England, and the snowfall threat is increasing, as is the threat of snow days on Friday as it seems the storm gets a tad heavier on the back end with snow and also lasting longer into the day. I am fairly comfortable with giving a 10-15" general snowfall range...with isolated 20" amounts possible in far northern Connecticut (BDL north) where mixing should be kept at a minimum. This is a highly complex storm to forecast and it is a ridiculously fragile forecast- a one degree difference could literally be the difference between a moderate sleet accumulation or an extra 3-6" of snow. My current thinking on timing is as follows, as well as snow days
Tonight: No major travel worries, mostly cloudy, first snow showers arrive around 4 AM
Tomorrow morning: Heavy, wet snow develops around 6 AM for everyone in Connecticut and continues for several hours at an alarming accumulation rate. Snowfall during this 6 hour timeframe should be between 5 and 10 inches.
Tomorrow afternoon: Beginning in southern Middlesex county, mixing develops along the shoreline at about noon tomorrow. This line gradually advances northward and eventually changes the snow to sleet and freezing rain between about 1 and 7 PM, HOWEVER...this appears to also be the part of the storm with the least amount of precipitation, and any icing should be less than 0.25".
Tomorrow night/Friday morning- As the storm begins to pull away from Cape Cod, the freezing line comes back through the area and changes the precipitation back over to all snow. This is where the forecast gets a bit different today. It now appears an additional 4-6" are possible on the back end of this storm, with the last flakes now flying between 6 and 8 AM Friday. Thus, I believe all schools in central Connecticut will be closed tomorrow and many will have to close again on Friday, though some areas may be able to escape with a delay if the end up on the low end (8") of my forecast, especially along the immediate shoreline, where mixing will last the longest, though I would go for the bigger numbers at the present time.
The bottom line is that most of the area is likely to receive one foot of snow in the next 48 hours or so...Enjoy the storm! I'll update again tomorrow morning, or if anything significant changes. Remember that these totals are highly changeable- this is probably the most difficult forecast of the season!
Easton is going to be a hard hitter for all of Southern New England, and the snowfall threat is increasing, as is the threat of snow days on Friday as it seems the storm gets a tad heavier on the back end with snow and also lasting longer into the day. I am fairly comfortable with giving a 10-15" general snowfall range...with isolated 20" amounts possible in far northern Connecticut (BDL north) where mixing should be kept at a minimum. This is a highly complex storm to forecast and it is a ridiculously fragile forecast- a one degree difference could literally be the difference between a moderate sleet accumulation or an extra 3-6" of snow. My current thinking on timing is as follows, as well as snow days
Tonight: No major travel worries, mostly cloudy, first snow showers arrive around 4 AM
Tomorrow morning: Heavy, wet snow develops around 6 AM for everyone in Connecticut and continues for several hours at an alarming accumulation rate. Snowfall during this 6 hour timeframe should be between 5 and 10 inches.
Tomorrow afternoon: Beginning in southern Middlesex county, mixing develops along the shoreline at about noon tomorrow. This line gradually advances northward and eventually changes the snow to sleet and freezing rain between about 1 and 7 PM, HOWEVER...this appears to also be the part of the storm with the least amount of precipitation, and any icing should be less than 0.25".
Tomorrow night/Friday morning- As the storm begins to pull away from Cape Cod, the freezing line comes back through the area and changes the precipitation back over to all snow. This is where the forecast gets a bit different today. It now appears an additional 4-6" are possible on the back end of this storm, with the last flakes now flying between 6 and 8 AM Friday. Thus, I believe all schools in central Connecticut will be closed tomorrow and many will have to close again on Friday, though some areas may be able to escape with a delay if the end up on the low end (8") of my forecast, especially along the immediate shoreline, where mixing will last the longest, though I would go for the bigger numbers at the present time.
The bottom line is that most of the area is likely to receive one foot of snow in the next 48 hours or so...Enjoy the storm! I'll update again tomorrow morning, or if anything significant changes. Remember that these totals are highly changeable- this is probably the most difficult forecast of the season!
Snow lovers rejoice!
Good morning everyone! It seems like this storm will be mostly snow after a few model run scares last night that indicated far more mixing than expected, and the eastward trends, if they continue through the day today, should yield a pretty gigantic snowstorm for Southern New England. The official forecast from NOAA is up to 8-12" and they are nearly always 3-5" too low with their numbers (Although interestingly, they are forecasting 10-16" in the local forecast). The Winter Storm Warning is posted below in full, and I stand by my 1-2 feet, mostly snow forecast and maintain my belief that schools close both Thursday and Friday, resulting in an extended February break- schools will likely start closing tonight for Thurs- and I am at least 60-70% sure that a delay will be necessary Friday. My school, however, has an early dismissal scheduled. With this option off the table, they will likely be forced to close. Either way, enjoy the major snowstorm!
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW. * IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Final note here- note how it says mixing "may" occur, if it doesn't...big trouble for everyone and we end up on the higher end of my forecast
Today in weather history- Feb. 12, 2006- A major blizzard crushes Connecticut and the northeast region, bringing one to two feet of snow, breaking the all-time record for the biggest 24-hr snowfall in Hartford with 22.4" (This would later be broken in 2011)
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
We have a name...
Good evening everyone! Thursday's storm has been named Winter Storm Easton, after the town in central Fairfield county. Easton is the 5th named storm of the winter, tying this year with 2010-11 for the most named storms since 1995-96...which had 8. With over one month to go in the winter season, another named storm or two is certainly possible...especially since beyond next week we could reenter an extremely snowy pattern which could come close to exhausting the entire name list. The next name on the list is Franklin, followed by Guilford and Hebron. If we have four more, we could be in trouble as, to my knowledge, no town in Connecticut starts with the letter I...I maintain my forecast in the 12-24" range, though currently I wouldn't be surprised if it fell in the lower end of this zone simply due to mixing. If it doesn't...then all bets are off. It will be interesting as well to see if these Winter Storm watches get upgraded to Blizzard Warnings as well, as wind will certainly be a factor. This will be a heavy, wet snowfall that is not going to be fun to shovel, especially when you get tons! I still believe that there is a 100% chance of no school Thurs and an 80% chance of no school Fri.
Winter Storm Watch posted
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 322 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>070-120500- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.140213T0500Z-140214T1100Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM- ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 322 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Personally, I think this is a tad underdone, but there does seem to be reason to believe this forecast as well.
Tuesday 2/11 update
Good morning all! A major snowstorm is on the way to southern New England...and this is certainly appearing to be the eggs and milk storm...This one looks like the granddaddy of the Winter season, with over one foot a distinct possibility for Connecticut. My early prediction is 10-20"...with locally two feet of snow a distinct possibility. This places this one firmly into the major category, however...some isolated mixing may be possible on the shoreline. Despite this, it looks like a massive snowstorm for everyone in central Connecticut, the biggest storm since Blizzard Charlotte last year. I am also comfortable enough to assure a snow day on Thursday...near 100 percent...and a high chance...80 pecent...of a snow day on Friday...due to this storm. Additionally, a concern for me is the wind speed, and with gusts between 35 and 50 mph consistently through the storm...I believe a blizzard warning will likely be needed over at least the southern part of Central Connecticut, and likely extending northward all the way to the Mass border. This is the one that people have been waiting for/dreading all winter. This is "the big one". I'll update the forecast on this potentially historic nor'easter this evening!
This date in weather history- Feb.11, 1899- A record cold snap hits the United States, with sub-zero temperatures as far south as Louisiana. In the following days, a massive blizzard develops from Tampa to New England, with our area receiving about 30 inches of snow
This date in weather history- Feb.11, 1899- A record cold snap hits the United States, with sub-zero temperatures as far south as Louisiana. In the following days, a massive blizzard develops from Tampa to New England, with our area receiving about 30 inches of snow
Monday, February 10, 2014
Afternoon update- bombs away!
Good evening all! Bombs away on the snowstorm for Thursday 2/13, as the computer model guidance supports a major, and nearly historic nor'easter for Thursday and Friday. One model is forecasting 25" of snow, and it is the most reliable one in these situations. The GFS, although less severe, also agrees on a similar picture, along with very strong winds. At this time, one foot of snow is extremely likely for anyone north of New Haven, and, if you keep going north, it could lead to more and more significant snowfall. Additionally concerning to me is the duration of the event. Some models depict constant snow from Midnight Wednesday evening/Thursday morning until noon on Friday. It would therefore not surprise me at all if someone in Connecticut approached or even exceeded 30" of snow during this time frame. We are likely to be under Winter Storm or Blizzard Watches tomorrow at this time, since the wind will also be strong with this and there is now a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Thursday and a high chance...60 percent...of a snow day Friday. Again, all signs currently point to an extreme nor'easter by the end of this week with 1-3" of liquid with about 10:1 ratios. I shall update tomorrow morning, at which point I will issue my first snowfall forecast and post the Winter Storm or Blizzard watch that is issued for our area. Enjoy your evening!
Monday 2/10 update
Good morning everyone! A general 1" snowfall coated up the roads in Central Connecticut last night. Snowfall was light as predicted and did not have any major effects of schools this morning. Thursday, however, could be a different story. At this time, we are seeing model agreement on a major snowstorm for Thursday at noon to Friday at noon. A double closure during this time is possible, and I would expect either Winter Storm or Blizzard watches to be issued tomorrow afternoon if the model trends hold through the day today and until tomorrow afternoon. Although it is a tad early to discuss snowfall, I would look for a general 10-20" snowfall for now, and someone may well receive two feet of snow in Connecticut during this time frame. With the snowpack already on the ground, it may be time to break out those roof rakes again. Beyond that time, another nor'easter possible for early next week...Stay tuned! I'll update with the PM model runs at about 8 PM this evening.
Today in weather history- February 10, 2010- The second of two major blizzards hits the mid-Atlantic states, burying them in 20" of snow for the second time in four days. The one-two winter wallop is deemed "snowmaggedon". In Connecticut, the storm drops one foot of snow on the shoreline and barely anything near the Mass border.
Today in weather history- February 10, 2010- The second of two major blizzards hits the mid-Atlantic states, burying them in 20" of snow for the second time in four days. The one-two winter wallop is deemed "snowmaggedon". In Connecticut, the storm drops one foot of snow on the shoreline and barely anything near the Mass border.
Sunday, February 9, 2014
WEATHER ALERT ISSUED BY NOAA- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 445 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 100100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 445 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 ...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TRI-STATE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS EVENING. $$ JMC
Evening of 2/9 Update
The snow event for tonight continues to appear minimal- light snow is breaking out from West to East and it will continue to do so, likely dropping between 1 and 3 inches of snow this evening. This is a medium chance of a delay, but I wouldn't bet on it, as it likely stops too soon to be major trouble. BIG trouble is possible late week though. I really got burned by making bold predictions last week, so I will refrain from doing that except from stating that we might hear the "b" word tossed around in the next few days and that a major (12"+) snow event has a solid 50-50 chance of occuring, and there is about a 20% chance, for now, that it could be a historic (2 ft+) snowstorm for Connecticut.
Further information that I want to throw out there...I will follow the WFSB names instead of the Weather Channel's, as WFSB is more local and more indicative as to how severe the Connecticut winter has been. So far, Ashford, Bethany, Chester, and Derby have all been used, and Thursday's storm, if it delivers 6"+ of snow, would be named Easton. Additionally, I have decided to classify snowfalls as follows:
Non-event- Less than 1"
Nuisance- Less than 3" but more than 1"
Moderate event- Between 3 and 6"
Significant event- Between 6 and 12"
Major event- Between one and two feet
Historic event- Greater than two feet, or potentially a record breaking storm for other purposes (Wind, Odd timing). Reserved for the "big ones" such as the Blizzards of '78, '93, '06, and '13, and the 2011 October nor'easter
I hereby classify tonight's event as nusiance. Thursday's storm has a 40% chance of being a non-event, a 20% chance each of being a significant, major, and historic event at this time. I'll update in the morning- have a great evening!
Further information that I want to throw out there...I will follow the WFSB names instead of the Weather Channel's, as WFSB is more local and more indicative as to how severe the Connecticut winter has been. So far, Ashford, Bethany, Chester, and Derby have all been used, and Thursday's storm, if it delivers 6"+ of snow, would be named Easton. Additionally, I have decided to classify snowfalls as follows:
Non-event- Less than 1"
Nuisance- Less than 3" but more than 1"
Moderate event- Between 3 and 6"
Significant event- Between 6 and 12"
Major event- Between one and two feet
Historic event- Greater than two feet, or potentially a record breaking storm for other purposes (Wind, Odd timing). Reserved for the "big ones" such as the Blizzards of '78, '93, '06, and '13, and the 2011 October nor'easter
I hereby classify tonight's event as nusiance. Thursday's storm has a 40% chance of being a non-event, a 20% chance each of being a significant, major, and historic event at this time. I'll update in the morning- have a great evening!
Sunday 2/9 update
The storm for tonight appears to be getting far less significant than it was yesterday. Generally, I would expect 1-4" of snow (and this may be a tad optimistic)...the Thursday storm, unfortunately, appears to have a major storm...but not necessarily snow, and we may have another significant ice storm on our hands Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. Other days this week appear to be seasonably cold with single digit overnight lows and daytime highs very near freezing. I am not overly concerned about delays/closings tomorrow. There is a medium chance...40 percent...of a delay tomorrow for southern CT and a low chance...20 percent...of areas north of Meriden receiving a delay tomorrow. Thus, while some delays tomorrow are likely, it will be hit or miss, and I would expect a full day of school tomorrow.
Fun fact of the day: In 1870, President Ulysses S Grant establishes the Weather Bureau of the United States, which eventually becomes the modern National Weather Service
Fun fact of the day: In 1870, President Ulysses S Grant establishes the Weather Bureau of the United States, which eventually becomes the modern National Weather Service
Image source is washingtonpost.com
Enjoy your Sunday!
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Welcome & First update
Hello everyone! Recently, people have been hammering me for weather updates, so I figure this is a great way to get my thoughts on the upcoming weeks storms and other noteworthy weather events. I'll update my blog probably once daily, with interesting weather tidbits about the day and any other upcoming storms to track. I may update more frequently as needed if significant storms are in the forecast or any major changes in my thinking occurs I will post all weather alerts issued by NOAA for Hartford, Tolland, New Haven, and Middlesex counties and provide snowfall accumulations for those areas as well.
About me: I am 18 years old and have been a "weather geek" for the last nine years, and I intend to persue meteorology professionally once I graduate from High School. I caught the bug in 2005 after the record-breaking hurricane season that left so many shaking their heads...ironically, I had asked my mother what would happen if the name list was exhausted earlier that year- her reply was "That would never happen"...and go figure it did. My forecasts have gained notoriety at my school and I figured this is a good way to keep people informed regularly!
I'll start with my Saturday, February 8, 2014 post
Today- Sunny but quite chilly (Highs in the 20s)
Sunday- Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. very close to the freezing mark
Noteworthy event #1- Sunday night into Monday morning- The much hyped storm through the week does not come together as once feared, but the northern of the two storms tries to develop rapidly off the SNE coast. A 2-4" snowfall is likely at this time, and these amounts could increase throughout the day today and tomorrow. School closing chance is 50-50 at this time
Monday- Snow ends early, Highs in the high 20's or low 30's
Tuesday- Partly cloudy and cold
Wednesday- Increasing clouds, Highs near freezing
Thursday/Friday- Significant event #2- A large storm of some kind is possible during this time frame. As it is a coastal storm, we are way to far off for any specifics. This is one of those storms that has the potential to bury CT in snow, miss entirely, or give us flooding rains at roughly equal likelihood for now, although the odds of a total miss are not high at this time
Days with at least a 33% chance of being a snow day this week appear to be: Monday (50-50), Thursday (50-50), and Friday (40%)
Today's weather history: 2013- Blizzard Charlotte slams Connecticut with a statewide average of over two feet of snow, and Hamden, CT recieves 40" of snow, the most in any one storm since the legendary Great Blizzard of 1888.
Image credit
About me: I am 18 years old and have been a "weather geek" for the last nine years, and I intend to persue meteorology professionally once I graduate from High School. I caught the bug in 2005 after the record-breaking hurricane season that left so many shaking their heads...ironically, I had asked my mother what would happen if the name list was exhausted earlier that year- her reply was "That would never happen"...and go figure it did. My forecasts have gained notoriety at my school and I figured this is a good way to keep people informed regularly!
Image source:
I'll start with my Saturday, February 8, 2014 post
Today- Sunny but quite chilly (Highs in the 20s)
Sunday- Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. very close to the freezing mark
Noteworthy event #1- Sunday night into Monday morning- The much hyped storm through the week does not come together as once feared, but the northern of the two storms tries to develop rapidly off the SNE coast. A 2-4" snowfall is likely at this time, and these amounts could increase throughout the day today and tomorrow. School closing chance is 50-50 at this time
Monday- Snow ends early, Highs in the high 20's or low 30's
Tuesday- Partly cloudy and cold
Wednesday- Increasing clouds, Highs near freezing
Thursday/Friday- Significant event #2- A large storm of some kind is possible during this time frame. As it is a coastal storm, we are way to far off for any specifics. This is one of those storms that has the potential to bury CT in snow, miss entirely, or give us flooding rains at roughly equal likelihood for now, although the odds of a total miss are not high at this time
Days with at least a 33% chance of being a snow day this week appear to be: Monday (50-50), Thursday (50-50), and Friday (40%)
Today's weather history: 2013- Blizzard Charlotte slams Connecticut with a statewide average of over two feet of snow, and Hamden, CT recieves 40" of snow, the most in any one storm since the legendary Great Blizzard of 1888.
Image credit- wxedge.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)