2/12 PM Update on Easton

Good afternoon everyone, hope you had a good day!

Easton is going to be a hard hitter for all of Southern New England, and the snowfall threat is increasing, as is the threat of snow days on Friday as it seems the storm gets a tad heavier on the back end with snow and also lasting longer into the day. I am fairly comfortable with giving a 10-15" general snowfall range...with isolated 20" amounts possible in far northern Connecticut (BDL north) where mixing should be kept at a minimum. This is a highly complex storm to forecast and it is a ridiculously fragile forecast- a one degree difference could literally be the difference between a moderate sleet accumulation or an extra 3-6" of snow. My current thinking on timing is as follows, as well as snow days

Tonight: No major travel worries, mostly cloudy, first snow showers arrive around 4 AM
Tomorrow morning: Heavy, wet snow develops around 6 AM for everyone in Connecticut and continues for several hours at an alarming accumulation rate. Snowfall during this 6 hour timeframe should be between 5 and 10 inches.
Tomorrow afternoon: Beginning in southern Middlesex county, mixing develops along the shoreline at about noon tomorrow. This line gradually advances northward and eventually changes the snow to sleet and freezing rain between about 1 and 7 PM, HOWEVER...this appears to also be the part of the storm with the least amount of precipitation, and any icing should be less than 0.25".
Tomorrow night/Friday morning- As the storm begins to pull away from Cape Cod, the freezing line comes back through the area and changes the precipitation back over to all snow. This is where the forecast gets a bit different today. It now appears an additional 4-6" are possible on the back end of this storm, with the last flakes now flying between 6 and 8 AM Friday. Thus, I believe all schools in central Connecticut will be closed tomorrow and many will have to close again on Friday, though some areas may be able to escape with a delay if the end up on the low end (8") of my forecast, especially along the immediate shoreline, where mixing will last the longest, though I would go for the bigger numbers at the present time.

The bottom line is that most of the area is likely to receive one foot of snow in the next 48 hours or so...Enjoy the storm! I'll update again tomorrow morning, or if anything significant changes. Remember that these totals are highly changeable- this is probably the most difficult forecast of the season!