Monday, February 10, 2014

Afternoon update- bombs away!

Good evening all! Bombs away on the snowstorm for Thursday 2/13, as the computer model guidance supports a major, and nearly historic nor'easter for Thursday and Friday. One model is forecasting 25" of snow, and it is the most reliable one in these situations. The GFS, although less severe, also agrees on a similar picture, along with very strong winds. At this time, one foot of snow is extremely likely for anyone north of New Haven, and, if you keep going north, it could lead to more and more significant snowfall. Additionally concerning to me is the duration of the event. Some models depict constant snow from Midnight Wednesday evening/Thursday morning until noon on Friday. It would therefore not surprise me at all if someone in Connecticut approached or even exceeded 30" of snow during this time frame. We are likely to be under Winter Storm or Blizzard Watches tomorrow at this time, since the wind will also be strong with this and there is now a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Thursday and a high chance...60 percent...of a snow day Friday. Again, all signs currently point to an extreme nor'easter by the end of this week with 1-3" of liquid with about 10:1 ratios. I shall update tomorrow morning, at which point I will issue my first snowfall forecast and post the Winter Storm or Blizzard watch that is issued for our area. Enjoy your evening!

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