I owe you all one after this morning...I GOT BUSTED!!!
Essentially, what happened was a perfect storm situation where we picked up far stronger northerly winds than we expected, and that combined with one lone mesoscale band that set up camp right over the region, a narrow band occured of 2-5" of snow stretching from roughly Hartford south to New Haven, through Meriden, Wallingford, North Haven, Glastonbury, etc. In retrospect, I think most schools wish they had closed today, but considering the circumstances I think the best choice was made. I would not have delayed school this morning either, and the forecast was always for improving weather through the afternoon hours so there was never any point in having an Early Dismissal!
I hope everyone forgives me! (Not that you have much choice- all weather stations got it wrong too...)
Monday, March 31, 2014
3/31- Say Goodbye to March by staying dry- what does April have in store?
Good Monday all! (And for baseball fans, Happy Opening Day!)
Today is going to be a tad less rainy than the past few, but still rather wet. Overnight, we came close to having a flash freeze, but never quite got there (Litchfield county did, however, and several schools are delayed in that area). As we move forward, another 1" of rain is possible and therefore the flood threat continues for another day or so. The rain today will taper off at around noon, leaving beautiful weather that should last until late Friday night, when another slow-moving nor'easter impacts New England with a significant rainstorm. As of now, Saturday looks like a drencher, with several more inches of rain. We'll just have to wait and see!
Today in weather history- March 31, 1962- Milton, Florida is hit by an F3 tornado that kills 17 people- the deadliest tornado in Florida history. Even though Florida sees a rather large number of tornadoes, they are generally weak and short-lived, so this is the exception to the rule
Today is going to be a tad less rainy than the past few, but still rather wet. Overnight, we came close to having a flash freeze, but never quite got there (Litchfield county did, however, and several schools are delayed in that area). As we move forward, another 1" of rain is possible and therefore the flood threat continues for another day or so. The rain today will taper off at around noon, leaving beautiful weather that should last until late Friday night, when another slow-moving nor'easter impacts New England with a significant rainstorm. As of now, Saturday looks like a drencher, with several more inches of rain. We'll just have to wait and see!
Today in weather history- March 31, 1962- Milton, Florida is hit by an F3 tornado that kills 17 people- the deadliest tornado in Florida history. Even though Florida sees a rather large number of tornadoes, they are generally weak and short-lived, so this is the exception to the rule
Sunday, March 30, 2014
3/30- Sunday Soaker, nice weather to follow!
Good Sunday all!
A major rainstorm is beginning right now (That's right, it will rain harder today than it ever did yesterday!). After some areas saw 1" of rain yesterday, I think many areas will pick up an additional 2-4" of rain today before the storm finally crawls out of New England. Now don't complain everyone- if this was even one week ago and was snow, well, multiply numbers by 10 if you want to know how much this would have been. I think most of us would take the rain! (Not me, though). Anyway, tonight we play a game of Russian Roulette with temperatures- if they drop below freezing, the roads are in serious trouble. The forecasted low for tonight is exactly 32 degrees- one degree either way would be crucial! If the flash freeze does occur, then schools could be delayed tomorrow morning as the roads could be extremely icy! I think there is a medium chance...40 percent...of a 2-hour delay tomorrow morning. Moving forward, however, the week looks to feature sunny conditions and beautiful warm temperatures! Also, some bad news...that storm for Friday? It's moved to Saturday and Sunday, so next weekend has the potential of being another complete washout...we'll have to wait and see!
Today in weather history- March 30, 1823- The lone 'snowicane' in New England history occurs, as hurricane force winds are experienced throughout the area accompanied by one to two feet of snow. Note that this is not a true hurricane- and having a literal 'snowicane' in New England is very nearly impossible- the definition of a hurricane includes having a warm core....the closest we are ever likely to come is Hurricane Sandy, which could have posed a big problem if it tracked about 300 miles further East and made it's left turn into, say, Boston.
A major rainstorm is beginning right now (That's right, it will rain harder today than it ever did yesterday!). After some areas saw 1" of rain yesterday, I think many areas will pick up an additional 2-4" of rain today before the storm finally crawls out of New England. Now don't complain everyone- if this was even one week ago and was snow, well, multiply numbers by 10 if you want to know how much this would have been. I think most of us would take the rain! (Not me, though). Anyway, tonight we play a game of Russian Roulette with temperatures- if they drop below freezing, the roads are in serious trouble. The forecasted low for tonight is exactly 32 degrees- one degree either way would be crucial! If the flash freeze does occur, then schools could be delayed tomorrow morning as the roads could be extremely icy! I think there is a medium chance...40 percent...of a 2-hour delay tomorrow morning. Moving forward, however, the week looks to feature sunny conditions and beautiful warm temperatures! Also, some bad news...that storm for Friday? It's moved to Saturday and Sunday, so next weekend has the potential of being another complete washout...we'll have to wait and see!
Today in weather history- March 30, 1823- The lone 'snowicane' in New England history occurs, as hurricane force winds are experienced throughout the area accompanied by one to two feet of snow. Note that this is not a true hurricane- and having a literal 'snowicane' in New England is very nearly impossible- the definition of a hurricane includes having a warm core....the closest we are ever likely to come is Hurricane Sandy, which could have posed a big problem if it tracked about 300 miles further East and made it's left turn into, say, Boston.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
3/29- Wet wet and wetter
Good Saturday all!
Flood watches are up today for the entire state today and with good reason. A major slow-moving rainstorm is on the way for later this afternoon and all day tomorrow. I expect rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches to be widespread, and it would not surprise me at all if someone in Connecticut picks up a half foot of rain. Yuck! Beyond this, however...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS COMING! hallelujah! 60 degree temps will accompany sunny skies on Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front moves through Thursday and sets up another rainy nor'easter for next weekend. Enjoy this very wet weekend and think about Tues and Weds to cheer you up!
Today in weather history- March 29, 1921- The temperature in Washington DC drops from 82 degrees the day before to...29 degrees in one day!
Flood watches are up today for the entire state today and with good reason. A major slow-moving rainstorm is on the way for later this afternoon and all day tomorrow. I expect rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches to be widespread, and it would not surprise me at all if someone in Connecticut picks up a half foot of rain. Yuck! Beyond this, however...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS COMING! hallelujah! 60 degree temps will accompany sunny skies on Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front moves through Thursday and sets up another rainy nor'easter for next weekend. Enjoy this very wet weekend and think about Tues and Weds to cheer you up!
Today in weather history- March 29, 1921- The temperature in Washington DC drops from 82 degrees the day before to...29 degrees in one day!
Friday, March 28, 2014
Flood watch issued as promised!
New Haven & Middlesex
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...PASSAIC...ESSEX...HUDSON AND UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER. * FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SATURDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. * RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
Hartford & Tolland
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT... MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. * FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING * THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH VEGETATION STILL DORMANT...PLUS SNOWMELT IN THE FAR INTERIOR...IS SUFFICIENT TO BRING THE CONCERN OF MINOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
3/28- Two words...WET and WARM
Good Morning and....HAPPY FRIDAY! You made it!
Unfortunately, I hope you don't have any outdoor plans this weekend, however, and if you do, I'd advise cancelling them unless it's tomorrow before noon. After that it is going to rain really, really hard...for the rest of the weekend. The timing of the storm could not be worse- it is likely going to start Saturday at noon and end Monday at noon. The computer models are now forecasting as much as 1/2 a foot of rain over our region and- given the position of the storm- it's a distinct possibility! Beyond this rainy weekend, the temps will be really warm with highs in the 60s by mid-week! Looking ahead, an early guess for the generic April pattern is cooler than usual and extremely wet. Rainstorms look to occur very frequently in the coming weeks- flooding will likely be an issue, if not this weekend, then certainly by next! Honestly, I expect a flood watch to be issued for SNE later this afternoon for tomorrow and Sunday. When this occurs, it will be posted on here!
Have a fantastic Friday!
Today in weather history- March 28, 1984- A violent tornado outbreak hits the Carolinas- 22 tornadoes are reported, 57 people are killed and 1,248 others are injured
This is a satellite image of the giant nor'easter this week...
Unfortunately, I hope you don't have any outdoor plans this weekend, however, and if you do, I'd advise cancelling them unless it's tomorrow before noon. After that it is going to rain really, really hard...for the rest of the weekend. The timing of the storm could not be worse- it is likely going to start Saturday at noon and end Monday at noon. The computer models are now forecasting as much as 1/2 a foot of rain over our region and- given the position of the storm- it's a distinct possibility! Beyond this rainy weekend, the temps will be really warm with highs in the 60s by mid-week! Looking ahead, an early guess for the generic April pattern is cooler than usual and extremely wet. Rainstorms look to occur very frequently in the coming weeks- flooding will likely be an issue, if not this weekend, then certainly by next! Honestly, I expect a flood watch to be issued for SNE later this afternoon for tomorrow and Sunday. When this occurs, it will be posted on here!
Have a fantastic Friday!
Today in weather history- March 28, 1984- A violent tornado outbreak hits the Carolinas- 22 tornadoes are reported, 57 people are killed and 1,248 others are injured
And this is what's coming!
Image sources: wunderground.com and blog.etc-web.com
Thursday, March 27, 2014
3/27- A rainy week ahead
Good Thursday all!!!
Today is the beginning of the nice weather temperature wise...but also the beginning of the 'April Showers'. Unfortunately, it is going to rain all weekend this week with the lone exception being Saturday afternoon as a chance of rain exists Friday night and Sunday...and Sunday's storm is a coastal low with lots of moisture to work with. It is going to pour all morning on Sunday, and potentially even mix with some snowflakes as temps will be very marginal at this time. Moving further into next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm before rain occurs Wednesday and then a nor'easter tries to develop for Friday night into Saturday. This is now so far out that any speculation is totally pointless, so we'll see!
I hope everyone enjoys the wet weekend!
Today in weather history- March 27, 1964- The strongest earthquake in American history and second strongest in world history occurs in Anchorage, Alaska, measuring as high as a 9.2 on the Richter scale, killing 139 people and doing damage of an incredible scale, totaling the city and surrounding areas. Tsunamis also develop, underwater landslides occur, and the ground liquefies, creating fissures that make the damage even worse
Today is the beginning of the nice weather temperature wise...but also the beginning of the 'April Showers'. Unfortunately, it is going to rain all weekend this week with the lone exception being Saturday afternoon as a chance of rain exists Friday night and Sunday...and Sunday's storm is a coastal low with lots of moisture to work with. It is going to pour all morning on Sunday, and potentially even mix with some snowflakes as temps will be very marginal at this time. Moving further into next week, Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm before rain occurs Wednesday and then a nor'easter tries to develop for Friday night into Saturday. This is now so far out that any speculation is totally pointless, so we'll see!
I hope everyone enjoys the wet weekend!
Today in weather history- March 27, 1964- The strongest earthquake in American history and second strongest in world history occurs in Anchorage, Alaska, measuring as high as a 9.2 on the Richter scale, killing 139 people and doing damage of an incredible scale, totaling the city and surrounding areas. Tsunamis also develop, underwater landslides occur, and the ground liquefies, creating fissures that make the damage even worse
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
3/26- Watching a weekend washout!
Good Wednesday everyone-
A wind advisory remains in effect today for very strong wind and temps in the 30s, however, looking forward, this is this winter's last hurrah it appears. Temps will moderate not just today but moving forward as well with nearly all days in the 50s and maybe even approaching 60 on Friday. Unfortunately, a rather odd late season coastal storm develops Saturday afternoon...and washes out Saturday afternoon and all day Sunday. At this time, several inches of rain are possible (1-2 perhaps) and that is enough to ruin everyone's day! Also, it is important to note that one model, the GFS, changes the precip over to several inches of snow on Saturday night, but that is unlikely at this time as it is the only one to indicate this, but we should not throw it out as this model has been one of the more accurate ones recently. Because of the warm temps, however, it does not seem like a logical solution, so I will forecast predominantly rain at this time.
Stay warm today everyone, but take solace in the fact that this may well be it!
On another note, the weather channel predicted an average hurricane season in 2014 last night featuring 11 named storms. This is below average in the modern era. I agree with this forecast, as an El Nino is developing, which frequently cools the Atlantic and produces high wind shear over the region. The last such occurance was 2009.
If anyone is interested, this years name list in the Atlantic basin was last used in 2008- Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo (replacing Gustav), Hanna (which hit CT in 2008), Isiah (replacing Ike), Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette (replacing Paloma), Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. We'll see how far we get!
Today in weather history- March 26, 2004- The first hurricane to ever form in the South Atlantic actually hits Brazil as a category 2 hurricane and does significant damage to the Catarina region. To this day, it is the only recorded hurricane in the history of the South Atlantic and is referred to as 'Cyclone Catarina' and has a very unique place in the record books!
A wind advisory remains in effect today for very strong wind and temps in the 30s, however, looking forward, this is this winter's last hurrah it appears. Temps will moderate not just today but moving forward as well with nearly all days in the 50s and maybe even approaching 60 on Friday. Unfortunately, a rather odd late season coastal storm develops Saturday afternoon...and washes out Saturday afternoon and all day Sunday. At this time, several inches of rain are possible (1-2 perhaps) and that is enough to ruin everyone's day! Also, it is important to note that one model, the GFS, changes the precip over to several inches of snow on Saturday night, but that is unlikely at this time as it is the only one to indicate this, but we should not throw it out as this model has been one of the more accurate ones recently. Because of the warm temps, however, it does not seem like a logical solution, so I will forecast predominantly rain at this time.
Stay warm today everyone, but take solace in the fact that this may well be it!
On another note, the weather channel predicted an average hurricane season in 2014 last night featuring 11 named storms. This is below average in the modern era. I agree with this forecast, as an El Nino is developing, which frequently cools the Atlantic and produces high wind shear over the region. The last such occurance was 2009.
If anyone is interested, this years name list in the Atlantic basin was last used in 2008- Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo (replacing Gustav), Hanna (which hit CT in 2008), Isiah (replacing Ike), Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette (replacing Paloma), Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. We'll see how far we get!
Today in weather history- March 26, 2004- The first hurricane to ever form in the South Atlantic actually hits Brazil as a category 2 hurricane and does significant damage to the Catarina region. To this day, it is the only recorded hurricane in the history of the South Atlantic and is referred to as 'Cyclone Catarina' and has a very unique place in the record books!
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED
For New Haven and Middlesex:
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA. * HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. * IMPACTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS WEAK TREES AND TREE LIMBS GET KNOCKED DOWN. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
For Hartford & Tolland:
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATION...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND. ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS IS INCLUDED IN THE WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY ALONG WITH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH ARE UNDER A HIGH WIND WARNING. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS FROM MID MORNING WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
3/25- NO STORM TONIGHT
Good Tuesday all!
So close, yet so very far! The models last night trended even further east....and then some. I have to lower my snowfall forecast-I really don't see anyone in my area getting more than 2". The storm is that far out to sea. The cape, however, is under a Blizzard Watch and they are going to really get thumped by this storm. Beyond this, we are going to finally warm up...potentially for good at last. The temps past this storm are going to be great- 60s for this weekend! At this point, it is getting hard to get a snowstorm in our region and the winter season is likely over for good. Looking at the models moving forward, we may get winter temperatures, but they will only come with very high pressure and therefore will not feature any precipitation. As a result, I do not believe there will be any more big snowstorms this year. Just get through the hiccup tonight, and we'll be home free. We are now entering the least exciting time of year as a forecaster- no big storms really happen in April and May in typical years. Once we get into June, though, we also start the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which makes it fun once again!
I hope everyone has a great day!
Today in Weather History- March 25, 1984- Mauna Loa, the most active volcano on Earth, begins it's eruption, which is still ongoing 30 years later!
So close, yet so very far! The models last night trended even further east....and then some. I have to lower my snowfall forecast-I really don't see anyone in my area getting more than 2". The storm is that far out to sea. The cape, however, is under a Blizzard Watch and they are going to really get thumped by this storm. Beyond this, we are going to finally warm up...potentially for good at last. The temps past this storm are going to be great- 60s for this weekend! At this point, it is getting hard to get a snowstorm in our region and the winter season is likely over for good. Looking at the models moving forward, we may get winter temperatures, but they will only come with very high pressure and therefore will not feature any precipitation. As a result, I do not believe there will be any more big snowstorms this year. Just get through the hiccup tonight, and we'll be home free. We are now entering the least exciting time of year as a forecaster- no big storms really happen in April and May in typical years. Once we get into June, though, we also start the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which makes it fun once again!
I hope everyone has a great day!
Today in Weather History- March 25, 1984- Mauna Loa, the most active volcano on Earth, begins it's eruption, which is still ongoing 30 years later!
Monday, March 24, 2014
An evening update on a Complex Forecast
Good evening all-
I felt like I would share a few interesting developments with the storm this afternoon. First, the models have trended a solid 25 miles west from earlier today. Is it something to watch? Yes. Are the odds of a snowstorm any more significant than they were this morning? Yes. Is it more than 20%? NO, but it's probably around that instead of about 10% this morning.
On another note, tracking this storm will be fun for weather geeks anyways. This is one of the most intense storms I have ever seen off the coast of New England. At peak intensity Wednesday, the pressure may be nearly as low as it was during Hurricane Sandy! My friends, this is an storm.
Also, if you want to know how close this is, and why forecasting storms is so hard, this is a perfect example. If you have followed my blog, you have heard me discuss the 40N/70W benchmark for nor'easters that dumps CT...This storm is going to track to about 40N/69W. That is soooo close, so the forecast remains fragile. Overnight models will be interesting, as any further westward trend causes big trouble.
Also, it is intriguing to note something as well. The definition of 'blizzard' has nothing to do with snow amounts and is instead gusts to 35+ mph for 3 straight hrs with whiteout conditions. Interestingly, southern areas of our area may be close to reaching Blizzard criteria tomorrow night due to blowing snow and not necessarily pick up tons of snow. It can occur that someone gets a Blizzard watch for 2-4" of snow. It is highly rare in Connecticut, but it may be possible tomorrow night...we'll see!
If anything big happens, you'll be the first to know as I'll update!
I felt like I would share a few interesting developments with the storm this afternoon. First, the models have trended a solid 25 miles west from earlier today. Is it something to watch? Yes. Are the odds of a snowstorm any more significant than they were this morning? Yes. Is it more than 20%? NO, but it's probably around that instead of about 10% this morning.
On another note, tracking this storm will be fun for weather geeks anyways. This is one of the most intense storms I have ever seen off the coast of New England. At peak intensity Wednesday, the pressure may be nearly as low as it was during Hurricane Sandy! My friends, this is an storm.
Also, if you want to know how close this is, and why forecasting storms is so hard, this is a perfect example. If you have followed my blog, you have heard me discuss the 40N/70W benchmark for nor'easters that dumps CT...This storm is going to track to about 40N/69W. That is soooo close, so the forecast remains fragile. Overnight models will be interesting, as any further westward trend causes big trouble.
Also, it is intriguing to note something as well. The definition of 'blizzard' has nothing to do with snow amounts and is instead gusts to 35+ mph for 3 straight hrs with whiteout conditions. Interestingly, southern areas of our area may be close to reaching Blizzard criteria tomorrow night due to blowing snow and not necessarily pick up tons of snow. It can occur that someone gets a Blizzard watch for 2-4" of snow. It is highly rare in Connecticut, but it may be possible tomorrow night...we'll see!
If anything big happens, you'll be the first to know as I'll update!
3/24- Blizzard? NOPE! Some snow? Yes
Good Monday all!
We are seeing some model agreement on a non-direct hit from this storm, meaning our region will be spared the blizzard conditions that would have happened with a direct hit. However, some models continue to bring a light to moderate snowfall to our area on Tuesday, so I am going to keep my forecasted snowfall at 2-4" with locally less in Western areas and locally as much as 6" in eastern areas as the coastal low will be closer to those areas. I doubt I will have to raise these numbers, but I may well have to lower them if some models are right (The GFS is showing only about 1-2" statewide). Because of this, there is actually a chance that some schools are forced to dismiss early tomorrow and delay on Wednesday. The school possibilities for this week are listed below
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: 33% chance of an Early dismissal generally, slightly higher east
Wednesday: 60% chance of a delay, 25% chance of a closure (If ECMWF is right, then 2-5" of snow falls Tues night, that would likely be enough)
Thursday: 2% chance closure (ONLY IF A DIRECT HIT OCCURS, HIGHLY UNLIKELY)
Friday: Nothing
Other than that, a relatively uneventful weather week is upcoming, with cold temps and generally partly cloudy conditions...
Today in weather history: March 24, 1975- An F3 tornado hits downtown Atlanta and destroys the richest part of the city and totals the Governor's mansion. Three people are killed and another 152 are injured.
We are seeing some model agreement on a non-direct hit from this storm, meaning our region will be spared the blizzard conditions that would have happened with a direct hit. However, some models continue to bring a light to moderate snowfall to our area on Tuesday, so I am going to keep my forecasted snowfall at 2-4" with locally less in Western areas and locally as much as 6" in eastern areas as the coastal low will be closer to those areas. I doubt I will have to raise these numbers, but I may well have to lower them if some models are right (The GFS is showing only about 1-2" statewide). Because of this, there is actually a chance that some schools are forced to dismiss early tomorrow and delay on Wednesday. The school possibilities for this week are listed below
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: 33% chance of an Early dismissal generally, slightly higher east
Wednesday: 60% chance of a delay, 25% chance of a closure (If ECMWF is right, then 2-5" of snow falls Tues night, that would likely be enough)
Thursday: 2% chance closure (ONLY IF A DIRECT HIT OCCURS, HIGHLY UNLIKELY)
Friday: Nothing
Other than that, a relatively uneventful weather week is upcoming, with cold temps and generally partly cloudy conditions...
Today in weather history: March 24, 1975- An F3 tornado hits downtown Atlanta and destroys the richest part of the city and totals the Governor's mansion. Three people are killed and another 152 are injured.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
The verdict...
Is a miss for Connecticut for the time being! It looks like we miss this thing by a smidge. Early guess is 2-4" statewide
Comparing today to Feb 5, 2013
If some people are interested, read the article below. It is quite interesting
http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130205possible_storm_scenarios_for_friday
This article, written on wxedge, shows the forecast on Tuesday, February 5, 2013- three days before Blizzard Charlotte and it paints a similar (but not identical) situation as to what we are dealing with here. It shows that nobody was really expecting a huge snowstorm at that time, and most said it would change to rain. It never did and the rest was literally history.
This is just for reference that the forecast could still easily change. Do I think we will get the totals we got then? No. But is it out of the realm of possibility? Again, no, so stay tuned. Noon model runs are key!
http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130205possible_storm_scenarios_for_friday
This article, written on wxedge, shows the forecast on Tuesday, February 5, 2013- three days before Blizzard Charlotte and it paints a similar (but not identical) situation as to what we are dealing with here. It shows that nobody was really expecting a huge snowstorm at that time, and most said it would change to rain. It never did and the rest was literally history.
This is just for reference that the forecast could still easily change. Do I think we will get the totals we got then? No. But is it out of the realm of possibility? Again, no, so stay tuned. Noon model runs are key!
3/23- A nor'easter is brewing, how will it impact CT?
Good Morning all and Happy Sunday!
The main story of today is of course the nor'easter that threatens midweek. I went to bed last night thinking "I really need a significant northwest movement in the models to keep hopes of a direct hit alive"...and I see that trend this morning. In fact, the ECMWF now brings blizzard conditions to Boston for the 1st time in any computer model run thus far, and has as much as one foot in New London. This is a solid 75 miles northwest of where it was last night...and keeps hope alive for a direct hit for now. I need to see this trend occur again at noon today though to keep my position. Given the models having slowed western movement down, I think the odds now favor a glancing blow from this thing (Though it could be as much as 4-8" from it, especially east of I-91). That said, I am not ready to issue a forecast simply because of the massive trend westward on the Euro, and there remains a 40% chance that I'll have to as much as quadruple those amounts, so stay tuned indeed. I'll update again later tonight. On the positive note, the weather appears to moderate after this with temps in the 60s again next weekend!
Stay tuned to may blog for the nor'easter potential...I shall update around 5 PM tonight give or take an hour unless I see something big change in the noon model runs, the first of which comes out at 11:30.
Today in weather history- March 23, 1899- A huge storm drops 141" of snow in Ruby, Colorado in a week, establishing the state record for the biggest snowstorm.
The main story of today is of course the nor'easter that threatens midweek. I went to bed last night thinking "I really need a significant northwest movement in the models to keep hopes of a direct hit alive"...and I see that trend this morning. In fact, the ECMWF now brings blizzard conditions to Boston for the 1st time in any computer model run thus far, and has as much as one foot in New London. This is a solid 75 miles northwest of where it was last night...and keeps hope alive for a direct hit for now. I need to see this trend occur again at noon today though to keep my position. Given the models having slowed western movement down, I think the odds now favor a glancing blow from this thing (Though it could be as much as 4-8" from it, especially east of I-91). That said, I am not ready to issue a forecast simply because of the massive trend westward on the Euro, and there remains a 40% chance that I'll have to as much as quadruple those amounts, so stay tuned indeed. I'll update again later tonight. On the positive note, the weather appears to moderate after this with temps in the 60s again next weekend!
Stay tuned to may blog for the nor'easter potential...I shall update around 5 PM tonight give or take an hour unless I see something big change in the noon model runs, the first of which comes out at 11:30.
Today in weather history- March 23, 1899- A huge storm drops 141" of snow in Ruby, Colorado in a week, establishing the state record for the biggest snowstorm.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Update on Tues PM/Weds
Good evening all-
The trends I have seen in the models warrant this update. Remember I have said three options exist? I think I can rule out one...
which one is it?
it is...
A total miss is what will not occur with this storm. In fact, it appears certain now that at least some accumulating snow reaches our forecast. What we are unsure of is how much. The new ECMWF tracked the storm far northwest of it's overnight run today, increasing the odds of a big hit. What does this mean? Quite simply, a glancing blow would be about 2-5" of snow for central CT and likely have at least some impact on schools Weds, but nothing too major.
On the other hand, should this thing track any further west, well...the area gets an epic blizzard that dumps epic amounts of snow, some areas may surpass what they got last year, have 60 mph sustained winds, etc.... Each has a 50-50 chance of happening. Tomorrow is the key part of the forecast. By tomorrow night, I should be able to give a pretty good guess as to accumulations.
ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITY FOR THE STORMS
Glancing blow (Current model mean)- Around 4-8"
Direct hit (ECMWF, and a few minor models)- 2 to 4 feet (My guess would be an average of 30-36" for most) widespread in southern New England. Close call everyone- stay tuned!
The trends I have seen in the models warrant this update. Remember I have said three options exist? I think I can rule out one...
which one is it?
it is...
A total miss is what will not occur with this storm. In fact, it appears certain now that at least some accumulating snow reaches our forecast. What we are unsure of is how much. The new ECMWF tracked the storm far northwest of it's overnight run today, increasing the odds of a big hit. What does this mean? Quite simply, a glancing blow would be about 2-5" of snow for central CT and likely have at least some impact on schools Weds, but nothing too major.
On the other hand, should this thing track any further west, well...the area gets an epic blizzard that dumps epic amounts of snow, some areas may surpass what they got last year, have 60 mph sustained winds, etc.... Each has a 50-50 chance of happening. Tomorrow is the key part of the forecast. By tomorrow night, I should be able to give a pretty good guess as to accumulations.
ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITY FOR THE STORMS
Glancing blow (Current model mean)- Around 4-8"
Direct hit (ECMWF, and a few minor models)- 2 to 4 feet (My guess would be an average of 30-36" for most) widespread in southern New England. Close call everyone- stay tuned!
3/22- Springlike today, but a megastorm becoming more and more possible!
Good Saturday morning everyone!
Today is going to be a very spring like day with temps as high as 60 degrees! Yes, 60! Make sure that you spend some time outside today and take advantage of the best day of 2014 so far! Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...and the warmth will later tonight. Some passing snow showers are going to find their way into the region and knock the temps back into the low 30s for tomorrow! Yikes! I can't remember the last time I forecasted highs in the 60s and snow in the same day! The cold then continues for Monday with sunny skies. Tuesday, clouds will be increasing and then...well the overnight model runs have trended at least 20 miles northwest. This is great news for snow-lovers, as the mean now has at least 2+ feet of snow over cape cod. That seems like we miss the worst, but...these models had the extreme snowfall just out to sea yesterday. The trend has been to bring it further west, and any further west trend could bring a classic spring blizzard to Southern New England (yes, if it came, it would be time to use the 'b' word). As far as accumulations go...I will refrain from making a forecast yet, but I'll show the options on the three paths that remain possible and the likelihood of each
1. The storm passes very near or directly over the 40N 70W benchmark, causing one of the largest March nor'easters in history and dumping 2-4 feet of snow. This scenario would rival what we saw last year, and be a rather similar setup to the Great Blizzard of 1888- someone in SNE could get 45"+. I would put the odds of this at a solid 50%
2. The storm is a bit further out to sea, as the models are currently forecasting and the region misses the worst of the snow to the east. In this situation, Cape Cod picks up the blizzard conditions, but Connecticut is still dealt a glancing blow, but with a storm of this intensity, we are still looking at a significant snowfall of around 4-8" with up to 10" possible in New London county. This one has a 35% chance of occurring
3. The storm tracks so far out to sea that it completely misses all of New England, dealing very little precip to the region. This would result in little to no accumulations. Unfortunately for snow haters, this is the least likely scenario to occur, and there is only about a 15% chance of it occurring with this one as the location of the polar vortex just to the east of New England forces the storm to track north instead of east.
As you can see, the odds at this point favor a strong snowstorm for Wednesday. I'll be sure to keep you posted, especially of scenario #1 decides to pan out. If it does, be ready. I hesitated to even put the figures out there, as I don't want to hype the storm, but the magnitude of this possibility is worth taking a bit of heat if it misses. We should know lots more by tomorrow, and I'll put out my preliminary forecast tomorrow evening. Until then, enjoy the sun and warmth today- you'll need when for when you're shoveling Thursday!
Today is going to be a very spring like day with temps as high as 60 degrees! Yes, 60! Make sure that you spend some time outside today and take advantage of the best day of 2014 so far! Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...and the warmth will later tonight. Some passing snow showers are going to find their way into the region and knock the temps back into the low 30s for tomorrow! Yikes! I can't remember the last time I forecasted highs in the 60s and snow in the same day! The cold then continues for Monday with sunny skies. Tuesday, clouds will be increasing and then...well the overnight model runs have trended at least 20 miles northwest. This is great news for snow-lovers, as the mean now has at least 2+ feet of snow over cape cod. That seems like we miss the worst, but...these models had the extreme snowfall just out to sea yesterday. The trend has been to bring it further west, and any further west trend could bring a classic spring blizzard to Southern New England (yes, if it came, it would be time to use the 'b' word). As far as accumulations go...I will refrain from making a forecast yet, but I'll show the options on the three paths that remain possible and the likelihood of each
1. The storm passes very near or directly over the 40N 70W benchmark, causing one of the largest March nor'easters in history and dumping 2-4 feet of snow. This scenario would rival what we saw last year, and be a rather similar setup to the Great Blizzard of 1888- someone in SNE could get 45"+. I would put the odds of this at a solid 50%
2. The storm is a bit further out to sea, as the models are currently forecasting and the region misses the worst of the snow to the east. In this situation, Cape Cod picks up the blizzard conditions, but Connecticut is still dealt a glancing blow, but with a storm of this intensity, we are still looking at a significant snowfall of around 4-8" with up to 10" possible in New London county. This one has a 35% chance of occurring
3. The storm tracks so far out to sea that it completely misses all of New England, dealing very little precip to the region. This would result in little to no accumulations. Unfortunately for snow haters, this is the least likely scenario to occur, and there is only about a 15% chance of it occurring with this one as the location of the polar vortex just to the east of New England forces the storm to track north instead of east.
As you can see, the odds at this point favor a strong snowstorm for Wednesday. I'll be sure to keep you posted, especially of scenario #1 decides to pan out. If it does, be ready. I hesitated to even put the figures out there, as I don't want to hype the storm, but the magnitude of this possibility is worth taking a bit of heat if it misses. We should know lots more by tomorrow, and I'll put out my preliminary forecast tomorrow evening. Until then, enjoy the sun and warmth today- you'll need when for when you're shoveling Thursday!
Friday, March 21, 2014
3/21- A nor'easter is brewing...
Good morning all and HAPPY FRIDAY!!!
Today and tomorrow are going to be fantastic days! The temps will be in the mid 50s on both days, and some areas may get to 60 tomorrow! There will be some scattered snow showers tomorrow morning as a warm front moves through, with the feat duplicated Monday night, but with a very strong cold front moving through, the temps will be knocked down into the low 30s on Monday. It wouldn't surprise me if we were trapped in the 20s on that day! Yikes! Then comes Tuesday, which will feature increasing clouds and frigid temperatures. Then the trouble begins...
Overnight, the model trend has continued to go north, and most are now forecasting precipitation for Southern New England. There is TONS, and I mean TONS of moisture with this thing. If the storm proves to be a direct hit to the region, then it would bring blizzard conditions and several feet, not inches, of snow and would be one we talk about for a very long time. This has, in my opinion, a 50-50 chance of occuring (with a glancing blow being the other option). I won't go into accumulations for now, but I have my numbers ready for a direct hit...they are HUGE, but I won't divulge them here (they would cause hype that I am not willing to cause when there is still a chance of a glancing blow or a miss).
I will have a blog update tonight simply because of the historic potential of this storm.
Today in weather history- March 21, 1968- It rains for 36 straight hours in Memphis...but on this date it changes to snow and accumulates 16.1" before ending...20 hours later (That is over 2 days of non-stop precip!)
Today and tomorrow are going to be fantastic days! The temps will be in the mid 50s on both days, and some areas may get to 60 tomorrow! There will be some scattered snow showers tomorrow morning as a warm front moves through, with the feat duplicated Monday night, but with a very strong cold front moving through, the temps will be knocked down into the low 30s on Monday. It wouldn't surprise me if we were trapped in the 20s on that day! Yikes! Then comes Tuesday, which will feature increasing clouds and frigid temperatures. Then the trouble begins...
Overnight, the model trend has continued to go north, and most are now forecasting precipitation for Southern New England. There is TONS, and I mean TONS of moisture with this thing. If the storm proves to be a direct hit to the region, then it would bring blizzard conditions and several feet, not inches, of snow and would be one we talk about for a very long time. This has, in my opinion, a 50-50 chance of occuring (with a glancing blow being the other option). I won't go into accumulations for now, but I have my numbers ready for a direct hit...they are HUGE, but I won't divulge them here (they would cause hype that I am not willing to cause when there is still a chance of a glancing blow or a miss).
I will have a blog update tonight simply because of the historic potential of this storm.
Today in weather history- March 21, 1968- It rains for 36 straight hours in Memphis...but on this date it changes to snow and accumulates 16.1" before ending...20 hours later (That is over 2 days of non-stop precip!)
Thursday, March 20, 2014
The trend is not the friend of those who want spring...
I just wanted to mention here that the odds of a large nor'easter next week appear to be increasing a sizable amount. Most models now bring snow into the region, and one tries to bring in about two feet. There is now a high chance...60 percent...of a snowfall of some form, but there is now a medium chance...40 percent...of a historic late season nor'easter next Wednesday...stay tuned, as snow amounts could be rather massive if everything comes together!
Could this be CT next week? Maybe!
Image credit to wikipedia.org
3/20- HAPPY SPRING EVERYONE!!!
Good morning all and HAPPY SPRING TO ALL- The vernal equinox is today at 12:57 PM and today will feel very spring-like indeed with very nice temps in the mid 50s and AM thunderstorms becoming sunny in the afternoon! Enjoy it while you can today and tomorrow though, as Saturday a cold front moves through with scattered snow showers before we re-enter the freezer and see temps in the 20s for highs yet again! To add insult to injury, the recent model trends have been to bring the nor'easter into southern New England as a rather large snowstorm. I disagree with these solutions for the present time, simply because I would need to see some movement of the high pressure over New England to be convinced that the storm actually can make it that far north. Regardless, I won't feel confident enough to make a forecast for this until Sunday night, so stay tuned is all I can really say for now- it is possible we get one last hurrah from this winter!
Today in weather history- March 20, 1954- A tornado that hits the Tinker Air Force base in Oklahoma City prompts the first official forecast for tornadoes after the ban on the word had been lifted. Five days after this, a tornado is successfully forecasted (albeit luckily) for the first time, and tornado forecasts have been issued regularly by NOAA ever since this date.
Today in weather history- March 20, 1954- A tornado that hits the Tinker Air Force base in Oklahoma City prompts the first official forecast for tornadoes after the ban on the word had been lifted. Five days after this, a tornado is successfully forecasted (albeit luckily) for the first time, and tornado forecasts have been issued regularly by NOAA ever since this date.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
3/19- Ready for spring? You'll get it! For one day...
Good Wednesday all!
Tomorrow is the vernal equinox, and it's going to feel very spring-like! The temps will be in the mid-50s tomorrow, and it will be very sunny as well! All in all, a perfect way to start spring! Unfortunately, this comes with the tradeoff of some freezing rain tonight as the warm front comes through, so be careful tonight as the roads may be quite slippery early tomorrow morning. As a result, there is a low chance...20 percent...of a delay tomorrow. The real problem comes this weekend- a nasty strong cold front comes through and knocks the temps all the way down to the low 30s for highs as we head into Sunday! Lows may even be in the mid teens! If that isn't bad enough, a nor'easter attempts to make its' way into Connecticut for Tuesday and Wednesday- since it comes in the peak of the cold, it would likely be mostly or all snow! Winter just refuses to quit!
I'll have more on the potential snowstorm for next week as the picture becomes clearer. My accumulation date is Sunday afternoon for this one!
Tomorrow is the vernal equinox, and it's going to feel very spring-like! The temps will be in the mid-50s tomorrow, and it will be very sunny as well! All in all, a perfect way to start spring! Unfortunately, this comes with the tradeoff of some freezing rain tonight as the warm front comes through, so be careful tonight as the roads may be quite slippery early tomorrow morning. As a result, there is a low chance...20 percent...of a delay tomorrow. The real problem comes this weekend- a nasty strong cold front comes through and knocks the temps all the way down to the low 30s for highs as we head into Sunday! Lows may even be in the mid teens! If that isn't bad enough, a nor'easter attempts to make its' way into Connecticut for Tuesday and Wednesday- since it comes in the peak of the cold, it would likely be mostly or all snow! Winter just refuses to quit!
I'll have more on the potential snowstorm for next week as the picture becomes clearer. My accumulation date is Sunday afternoon for this one!
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
3/18- Warmer before a return to the freezer!
Good Tuesday all!
Today is actually going to not be too terrible with temps in the 40s today, and it will just keep getting warmer! In fact, 50 degree temps are likely both Friday and Saturday! It will feel nice and unnaturally warm but...it's still below average! The average high by the end of March is the mid 50's- and we won't get there this time. A cold front moves through with a period of light to even moderate snow Saturday night- there may be a minor accumulation- before the temps plunge through the floor. Unfortunately, highs for early next week look trapped in the mid-30s at best! To make matters worse, a nor'easter tries to take aim at Connecticut next Tuesday, right in the peak of the cold, so it would likely be entirely snow...waay too early to call though- I wouldn't put out any snowfall guesses until Sunday- but stay tuned for sure! Winter is still here folks, even though the spring session of EDU's begins today at my school!
Today in weather history- March 18, 1925- The tri-state tornado carves a path of destruction 234 miles long- by far the longest in history- and also kills 695 people- again, by far the most in history. The tornado forms in southeast Missouri, crosses through southern Illinois, and dissipates in southern Indiana. This becomes, and still is, the standard by which all tornadoes are ultimately compared to- last year's tornado in Moore killed 25 people, so imagine a storm twenty-eight times that impactful....YIKES!
Today is actually going to not be too terrible with temps in the 40s today, and it will just keep getting warmer! In fact, 50 degree temps are likely both Friday and Saturday! It will feel nice and unnaturally warm but...it's still below average! The average high by the end of March is the mid 50's- and we won't get there this time. A cold front moves through with a period of light to even moderate snow Saturday night- there may be a minor accumulation- before the temps plunge through the floor. Unfortunately, highs for early next week look trapped in the mid-30s at best! To make matters worse, a nor'easter tries to take aim at Connecticut next Tuesday, right in the peak of the cold, so it would likely be entirely snow...waay too early to call though- I wouldn't put out any snowfall guesses until Sunday- but stay tuned for sure! Winter is still here folks, even though the spring session of EDU's begins today at my school!
Today in weather history- March 18, 1925- The tri-state tornado carves a path of destruction 234 miles long- by far the longest in history- and also kills 695 people- again, by far the most in history. The tornado forms in southeast Missouri, crosses through southern Illinois, and dissipates in southern Indiana. This becomes, and still is, the standard by which all tornadoes are ultimately compared to- last year's tornado in Moore killed 25 people, so imagine a storm twenty-eight times that impactful....YIKES!
Monday, March 17, 2014
3/17- Close, alas no cigar!
Good morning all!
Snow lovers today wish they were in south Jersey this morning, where they are getting pummeled with 6-12" of snow! Instead, only scattered flurries are likely here, nor does there appear to be a significant storm anytime in the next week or so. The trade off, however, is ridiculously cold temperatures for this time of year, and highs on Sunday, for example, may not reach the mid-20s! Yikes! I don't think we're off the hook yet for big snowstorms either, spring appears to still be really elusive and far away, based on the long-term computer models. In fact, most indicate that this will go down as one of the coldest ends to March on record- if that happens, we will certainly have one of the top 5 coldest Marches on record!!!! It's been a brutal month- but at least we miss a nor'easter by about 50 miles!
Today in weather history- March 17, 1952- A 70 year long ban on using the word 'tornado' in forecasts- due to concerns it would panic people more than it would help- is lifted and the first Tornado watch on record is issued by NOAA.
Snow lovers today wish they were in south Jersey this morning, where they are getting pummeled with 6-12" of snow! Instead, only scattered flurries are likely here, nor does there appear to be a significant storm anytime in the next week or so. The trade off, however, is ridiculously cold temperatures for this time of year, and highs on Sunday, for example, may not reach the mid-20s! Yikes! I don't think we're off the hook yet for big snowstorms either, spring appears to still be really elusive and far away, based on the long-term computer models. In fact, most indicate that this will go down as one of the coldest ends to March on record- if that happens, we will certainly have one of the top 5 coldest Marches on record!!!! It's been a brutal month- but at least we miss a nor'easter by about 50 miles!
Today in weather history- March 17, 1952- A 70 year long ban on using the word 'tornado' in forecasts- due to concerns it would panic people more than it would help- is lifted and the first Tornado watch on record is issued by NOAA.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
3/15- The next storm misses!
Good morning all and Happy Saturday- which will be happier when I say Monday's storm misses to the south! The Polar Vortex came far enough south where it did indeed deflect the system out to sea south of New England, while dumping places as close as South Jersey with 8" of snow again. I am now more concerned about Weds. night into Thursday, as a clipper system attempts to give us a moderate thumping of snow during that timeframe. The temps will be marginal at best though, so it may be difficult to get accumulations...we'll see! One concern to note though is that the ECMWF long-range forecasts indicate weather like this is possible almost into the month of May- this truly is the winter that won't quit! My forecast for Monday is officially 0". Wednesday night's forecast will come out Monday evening...
Today in weather history- March 15, 1952- 73.62" of rain fall on La Reunion Island in the South Indian ocean in less than 24 hours, establishing the new World Record for most rain in one day. This averages out to 3.07" of rain per hour! By comparison, Hartford's average annual precipitation is 43.7"!!!
Today in weather history- March 15, 1952- 73.62" of rain fall on La Reunion Island in the South Indian ocean in less than 24 hours, establishing the new World Record for most rain in one day. This averages out to 3.07" of rain per hour! By comparison, Hartford's average annual precipitation is 43.7"!!!
Friday, March 14, 2014
3/14- Miss the snow? Just wait for Monday
Good morning all!
As much as I hate to say it for snow haters, a moderate (3-6") to significant (6-12") snowfall is now a distinct possibility for Monday. The models overnight continued to trend north, and the two most reliable ones now show a solid 5" or so snowfall for our region. One model, the NAM (which is known for overdoing precipitation), is showing a classic nor'easter for the area. I would certainly not discount this idea entirely, as the major models are trending in this direction. On the other hand, however, I would also not rule out a complete miss, although this is highly unlikely at the present time and I would be very surprised if Southern New England escaped this one without seeing a flake. The Polar vortex that deflected the storm on 3/3 out to see is further north this time, and the only place it could deflect the storm is directly into Southern New England. I will become comfortable discussing accumulations tomorrow morning. Winds in this one will not reach blizzard criteria, but I could certainly see Winter Storm Watches being issued tomorrow afternoon. Also, the storm appears to be coming a tad later on recent runs...and may be more of a Monday at noon to Tuesday at noon deal. We'll see!
Today in weather history- March 14, 1870- The first recorded use of the term 'blizzard' is used to describe a windy snowstorm in Minnnesota and Iowa. The word appears in the Easterville, Iowa Vindicator
As much as I hate to say it for snow haters, a moderate (3-6") to significant (6-12") snowfall is now a distinct possibility for Monday. The models overnight continued to trend north, and the two most reliable ones now show a solid 5" or so snowfall for our region. One model, the NAM (which is known for overdoing precipitation), is showing a classic nor'easter for the area. I would certainly not discount this idea entirely, as the major models are trending in this direction. On the other hand, however, I would also not rule out a complete miss, although this is highly unlikely at the present time and I would be very surprised if Southern New England escaped this one without seeing a flake. The Polar vortex that deflected the storm on 3/3 out to see is further north this time, and the only place it could deflect the storm is directly into Southern New England. I will become comfortable discussing accumulations tomorrow morning. Winds in this one will not reach blizzard criteria, but I could certainly see Winter Storm Watches being issued tomorrow afternoon. Also, the storm appears to be coming a tad later on recent runs...and may be more of a Monday at noon to Tuesday at noon deal. We'll see!
Today in weather history- March 14, 1870- The first recorded use of the term 'blizzard' is used to describe a windy snowstorm in Minnnesota and Iowa. The word appears in the Easterville, Iowa Vindicator
Thursday, March 13, 2014
A Nasty Monday Surprise? Possible!
I have been getting WAY more concerned about a nor'easter on Monday that appears to have been getting progressively closer and closer to our region. The most notable of these is the American model, which trended at least 50 miles north and now puts southern New England in an area of 3-6" of snow. This is alarming considering that the pattern appears favorable for a northward trend, since the Polar Vortex is nowhere near SNE, which allows that storm to work further north. Too soon for numbers, naturally, but you'll get them fairly soon (I'll take my first guess Saturday morning)
3/13- What happened to the ice? Explaination below.
Good Thursday all!
The ice issues were not anywhere near as widespread as I thought they would be yesterday, and it oddly has nothing to due with the cold. In fact, the main reason is the wind, which has gusted to well over 40 mph in our area. The result of this is that it actually causes the ice to evaporate directly without ever turning to water in a process known as sublimation. The result is that the ice largely went away overnight, and thus the roads are in relatively good condition, allowing schools to open on time. More good news (or bad, depending on who you ask)- the storm for Monday does indeed miss off to the south of New England. There is also a chance of a storm around Wednesday, but that possibility is so far off and model disagreement is so large there is no point in even discussing it at the current time.
Today in weather history- March 13, 1993- A day that will forever live in weather infamy- the Great Superstorm of '93 drops as much as 50 inches of snow on the east coast, and nearly everyone from Atlanta north and as far west as Tennessee picks up a foot of snow. This is one of, if not the, largest swaths of extreme snowfall that has been recorded. Mt Washington also records a 144 mph wind gust, and a 4-13 foot storm surge inundates shoreline homes. This is comparable to a Category 2 hurricane's surge! Surely some of you have seen the commercial for Quattro where Old Man Winter says "thought I had it in the Blizzard of '93"...this is the blizzard he is referring to. The storm is the costliest non-tropical weather event on record in the United States, causing $6 billion in damage, and claiming 270 lives, three times the number of lives claimed by Hurricanes Andrew and Hugo....combined.
The ice issues were not anywhere near as widespread as I thought they would be yesterday, and it oddly has nothing to due with the cold. In fact, the main reason is the wind, which has gusted to well over 40 mph in our area. The result of this is that it actually causes the ice to evaporate directly without ever turning to water in a process known as sublimation. The result is that the ice largely went away overnight, and thus the roads are in relatively good condition, allowing schools to open on time. More good news (or bad, depending on who you ask)- the storm for Monday does indeed miss off to the south of New England. There is also a chance of a storm around Wednesday, but that possibility is so far off and model disagreement is so large there is no point in even discussing it at the current time.
Today in weather history- March 13, 1993- A day that will forever live in weather infamy- the Great Superstorm of '93 drops as much as 50 inches of snow on the east coast, and nearly everyone from Atlanta north and as far west as Tennessee picks up a foot of snow. This is one of, if not the, largest swaths of extreme snowfall that has been recorded. Mt Washington also records a 144 mph wind gust, and a 4-13 foot storm surge inundates shoreline homes. This is comparable to a Category 2 hurricane's surge! Surely some of you have seen the commercial for Quattro where Old Man Winter says "thought I had it in the Blizzard of '93"...this is the blizzard he is referring to. The storm is the costliest non-tropical weather event on record in the United States, causing $6 billion in damage, and claiming 270 lives, three times the number of lives claimed by Hurricanes Andrew and Hugo....combined.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Special Weather Statement Issued
...FLASH FREEZE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST WORKING INTO NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AT MID EVENING. BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH AND QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA...THE REST OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY SEE JUST AN INCH OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. THIS FREEZE LINE SHOULD THEN REACH THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BY 1 OR 2 AM...AND ONTO THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS BY 4 OR 5 AM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS NOT SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT A RAPID FREEZE UP OF WET ROADS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. LIGHT SNOW FALLING ON TOP OF THAT MAY HIDE SOME OF THE ICE BENEATH IT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FREEZES WE HAVE SEEN IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ROADS AND WALKWAYS MAY BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS...WITH ICY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Even though this is technically for just northern areas, please consider this for everyone! |
Widespread Delays? Probably
Good evening-
This is an update on the flash freeze event that is ongoing tonight. First things first- the precip will be done before it freezes, so accumulating snow won't be an issue at all. The problem though? All the liquid on the roads tonight will freeze and cause a nightmarish morning commute tomorrow. Thus, I am comfortable saying that there is a high chance...70 percent...of schools delaying tomorrow. Attention will then turn to Monday when, if you can believe it, a coastal low that originally looked like a miss is trending closer and now appears to deliver at least a 1-3" snowfall, with potentially way more if the trend continues. Still two days too far out for specifics though!
This is an update on the flash freeze event that is ongoing tonight. First things first- the precip will be done before it freezes, so accumulating snow won't be an issue at all. The problem though? All the liquid on the roads tonight will freeze and cause a nightmarish morning commute tomorrow. Thus, I am comfortable saying that there is a high chance...70 percent...of schools delaying tomorrow. Attention will then turn to Monday when, if you can believe it, a coastal low that originally looked like a miss is trending closer and now appears to deliver at least a 1-3" snowfall, with potentially way more if the trend continues. Still two days too far out for specifics though!
3.12.14- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARTFORD, TOLLAND
Good morning all!
The rain that we experience today is going to cause significant icing trouble this evening in addition to the rain changing over to produce a light accumulating snowfall (minor- 1-2"). This, however, is likely going to prevent the vast majority of schools from opening on time tomorrow and, as a result of the flash freeze tonight, I would say there is a high chance...80 percent...of a delay tomorrow and a low chance...10 percent...of schools totally closing tomorrow. The only way we would be able to squeeze a total snow day out of this is if the ice is ridiculously bad or we get more snow than currently forecasted, which is always possible. Looking forward, tomorrow is cold and windy, but temps then moderate for the weekend before we watch the potential for a nor'easter on Monday.
Today in weather history- March 12, 1888- The 'Great Blizzard of '88' strikes southern New England, producing the single greatest snowfall in our area's recorded history. How many of us thought last years Blizzard was bad? Well, it was one foot shy of this one. Imagine this- 70 mph winds, temperatures near 0 degrees through the duration of the storm and...51" of snow in Middletown. It remains the only time on record that Connecticut actually achieved 'Severe Blizzard' conditions. The snow drifts, it was said, went over 50 feet in height, or over the rooftop of a five story building! The only storms that rival this are the Great snow of 1717 and the Blizzard of 2013 (Both of which produced about 40" of snow max). Thus, noting the pattern, these storms happen once every 150 years or so. I hope everyone enjoyed last years blizzard- this shows just how rare it is!
Also of note, the Winter Weather Advisory is below for our readers in Hartford & Tolland county
The rain that we experience today is going to cause significant icing trouble this evening in addition to the rain changing over to produce a light accumulating snowfall (minor- 1-2"). This, however, is likely going to prevent the vast majority of schools from opening on time tomorrow and, as a result of the flash freeze tonight, I would say there is a high chance...80 percent...of a delay tomorrow and a low chance...10 percent...of schools totally closing tomorrow. The only way we would be able to squeeze a total snow day out of this is if the ice is ridiculously bad or we get more snow than currently forecasted, which is always possible. Looking forward, tomorrow is cold and windy, but temps then moderate for the weekend before we watch the potential for a nor'easter on Monday.
Today in weather history- March 12, 1888- The 'Great Blizzard of '88' strikes southern New England, producing the single greatest snowfall in our area's recorded history. How many of us thought last years Blizzard was bad? Well, it was one foot shy of this one. Imagine this- 70 mph winds, temperatures near 0 degrees through the duration of the storm and...51" of snow in Middletown. It remains the only time on record that Connecticut actually achieved 'Severe Blizzard' conditions. The snow drifts, it was said, went over 50 feet in height, or over the rooftop of a five story building! The only storms that rival this are the Great snow of 1717 and the Blizzard of 2013 (Both of which produced about 40" of snow max). Thus, noting the pattern, these storms happen once every 150 years or so. I hope everyone enjoyed last years blizzard- this shows just how rare it is!
Also of note, the Winter Weather Advisory is below for our readers in Hartford & Tolland county
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 408 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 ...FLASH FREEZE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE... CTZ002>004-MAZ004>019-026-RIZ001>005-121615- /O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.140313T0200Z-140313T1600Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA- SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA- NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM... LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD... AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER... FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON... BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE... WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL 408 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. THE ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF ROUTE 2. ICE ACCRETION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING...STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ROADS MAY QUICKLY FREEZE OVER AS COLDER AIR QUICKLY RUSHES INTO THE REGION. A SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY HIDE SOME OF THE ICE. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE ICY. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. &&
Monday, March 10, 2014
3/10/14
Looking wet not white for Weds with a little snow Thurs, 1-3" possible statewide...for now. I'm really not feeling well so please excuse my short post today...
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Early midweek call
Good evening!
As promised, here is my original call for midweek
TYPE: Wintry mess inland, mainly rain south of Wallingford, mainly snow near MA border
IMPACT: nuisance (shore)-moderate (inland)- significant (Extreme northern CT)
ACCUMULATIONS: 1-3" shore, 3-6" inland, 5-9" near MA border
TIMING: Weds PM, starts as sleet/freezing rain, changes to rain, ends as accumulating snow Thurs morning
SCHOOL IMPACTS: Weds- Unlikely, but possible Early dismissal inland (30%)
Thurs- Delays highly likely, inland closures possible. Shoreline- 20% closure, 70% delay. Inland- 50% closure, 40% delay
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 40% with the above solution, but rising
Enjoy!
As promised, here is my original call for midweek
TYPE: Wintry mess inland, mainly rain south of Wallingford, mainly snow near MA border
IMPACT: nuisance (shore)-moderate (inland)- significant (Extreme northern CT)
ACCUMULATIONS: 1-3" shore, 3-6" inland, 5-9" near MA border
TIMING: Weds PM, starts as sleet/freezing rain, changes to rain, ends as accumulating snow Thurs morning
SCHOOL IMPACTS: Weds- Unlikely, but possible Early dismissal inland (30%)
Thurs- Delays highly likely, inland closures possible. Shoreline- 20% closure, 70% delay. Inland- 50% closure, 40% delay
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 40% with the above solution, but rising
Enjoy!
3/9- Wintry mess for Weds
Good morning and HAPPY SUNDAY EVERYONE!!!!
The odds of a pure snowstorm on Wednesday are dropping somewhat, though the odds continue to favor a wintry mess type deal. I think that the most likely situation is snow-sleet-rain-sleet-snow. If this occurs, schools could well be impacted on Thursday especially...we'll see. If I had to guess right now, I'd say a moderate chance of an early dismissal Weds and no school on Thursday, but this is by no means final. I'll have a blog post later this evening to discuss my preliminary forecast and my first numbers will be thrown out!
Today in weather history- March 9, 1999- 12" of snow falls in Washington, DC, closing schools and government offices. This storm surprises meteorologists, however, that were forecasting 2-4". Oops!
I'll do another event later tonight on my storm update.
The odds of a pure snowstorm on Wednesday are dropping somewhat, though the odds continue to favor a wintry mess type deal. I think that the most likely situation is snow-sleet-rain-sleet-snow. If this occurs, schools could well be impacted on Thursday especially...we'll see. If I had to guess right now, I'd say a moderate chance of an early dismissal Weds and no school on Thursday, but this is by no means final. I'll have a blog post later this evening to discuss my preliminary forecast and my first numbers will be thrown out!
Today in weather history- March 9, 1999- 12" of snow falls in Washington, DC, closing schools and government offices. This storm surprises meteorologists, however, that were forecasting 2-4". Oops!
I'll do another event later tonight on my storm update.
Saturday, March 8, 2014
3/8- Wednesday's picture becoming a bit clearer
Good Saturday morning all!
Today is going to be by far the best day of the next 7 as the temps will be very mild (high 40s) and there is no chance of precip. Tomorrow, however, an arctic front brings flurries and much colder temperatures. Also, Monday a clipper system comes through, possibly dropping a quick coating to one inch of snow. I am, however, becoming increasingly concerned about Wednesday's storm. Granted, it is still too early to make any final call, though tomorrow afternoon I would probably be willing to put numbers out. The models, however, appear to be settling on a major snowstorm for Southern New England at the moment with up to (and in some cases over) one foot of snow. This is not my forecast yet, but it is something that is a distinct possibility! Also, today is daylight savings time- we "spring ahead" an hour. Don't forget that, or you'll be late to everything tomorrow!
Today in weather history- March 8, 2001- Falling ice from the suspension bridges in New York City causes nightmarish traffic jams, as all 5 lanes are forced to be closed, as well as one injury.
Today is going to be by far the best day of the next 7 as the temps will be very mild (high 40s) and there is no chance of precip. Tomorrow, however, an arctic front brings flurries and much colder temperatures. Also, Monday a clipper system comes through, possibly dropping a quick coating to one inch of snow. I am, however, becoming increasingly concerned about Wednesday's storm. Granted, it is still too early to make any final call, though tomorrow afternoon I would probably be willing to put numbers out. The models, however, appear to be settling on a major snowstorm for Southern New England at the moment with up to (and in some cases over) one foot of snow. This is not my forecast yet, but it is something that is a distinct possibility! Also, today is daylight savings time- we "spring ahead" an hour. Don't forget that, or you'll be late to everything tomorrow!
Today in weather history- March 8, 2001- Falling ice from the suspension bridges in New York City causes nightmarish traffic jams, as all 5 lanes are forced to be closed, as well as one injury.
Friday, March 7, 2014
3/7- A midweek nor'easter?
Good Friday everyone, we made it!
This will be a short blog post, as there really isn't anything to talk about over the next several days as we go precipitation-free for over a week! The only problem spot looks to be around Weds-Thurs next week, when a huge storm looks to strike in some way. One model shows a large snowstorm, another shows a rainstorm, others still show nothing. The interesting note is that the best analog dates for this type of event are March 12-15, 1993. If you want to know what those dates are, look it up HAHAHAHA (Though some people will likely recognize these). Way too early for details on this, therefore, and I won't go any further on this possibility today.
Today in weather history- March 7, 2014- The website about weather history crashes, so I can't give you anything today...sorry!
This will be a short blog post, as there really isn't anything to talk about over the next several days as we go precipitation-free for over a week! The only problem spot looks to be around Weds-Thurs next week, when a huge storm looks to strike in some way. One model shows a large snowstorm, another shows a rainstorm, others still show nothing. The interesting note is that the best analog dates for this type of event are March 12-15, 1993. If you want to know what those dates are, look it up HAHAHAHA (Though some people will likely recognize these). Way too early for details on this, therefore, and I won't go any further on this possibility today.
Today in weather history- March 7, 2014- The website about weather history crashes, so I can't give you anything today...sorry!
Thursday, March 6, 2014
3/6
Good morning- Happy Thursday!
First off, sorry for not updating yesterday- I had a crazy day!
Secondly, the moderating temps are coming until about the middle of next week. No major storms are in sight until the middle/later part of next week, and that's so far off you can't tell this far out. More on that in a bit. In the meantime, temps will be steadily on the rise until about Sunday, at which time they may approach 50 (finally) before snow showers associated with a clipper knocks the temps back down (nothing-2", minor event). Next week, however, the polar vortex returns, though a bit weaker than this week. It also comes with a potential major nor'easter. In fact, yesterday one top computer model (the Euro) was showing the best comparable dates as the ones that featured the Superstorm of '93. Do I think this will happen at this time? NO. Do I think it is impossible/unrealistic? Again, no. This is certainly something to watch in the next few days as we get into the middle part of March. Until next time!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1992- Marrietta, Georgia picks up 6" of....hail?
Also, March 6, 1872- The mercury hits -8 in Boston, establishing the all-time record low for March in that area.
First off, sorry for not updating yesterday- I had a crazy day!
Secondly, the moderating temps are coming until about the middle of next week. No major storms are in sight until the middle/later part of next week, and that's so far off you can't tell this far out. More on that in a bit. In the meantime, temps will be steadily on the rise until about Sunday, at which time they may approach 50 (finally) before snow showers associated with a clipper knocks the temps back down (nothing-2", minor event). Next week, however, the polar vortex returns, though a bit weaker than this week. It also comes with a potential major nor'easter. In fact, yesterday one top computer model (the Euro) was showing the best comparable dates as the ones that featured the Superstorm of '93. Do I think this will happen at this time? NO. Do I think it is impossible/unrealistic? Again, no. This is certainly something to watch in the next few days as we get into the middle part of March. Until next time!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1992- Marrietta, Georgia picks up 6" of....hail?
Also, March 6, 1872- The mercury hits -8 in Boston, establishing the all-time record low for March in that area.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
3/4- The Polar vortex returns next week with snow possible!
Good Tuesday everyone-
BRR! It is really, really cold out there this morning...especially considering it is March 4th! (The subject of a joke about the only date that is a command). Today's weather- sunny but really, really cold! Yikes! The highest snowfall total that I saw yesterday was 8.5" in Maryland, so the heavy stuff missed us by about 200 miles south. Close! We may not get as lucky this weekend, however, as a plowable snow is possible Sunday morning...accumulations don't look too major right now (2-4" maybe) but could obviously go up or down (It's another one of those clipper/nor'easter hybrids we've seen so many of this winter). With moderating temps this weekend, many were wondering if the final spring warm up was finally here. The answer is....heck NO NO NO NO NO. In fact, it won't just be cold, it will be FRIGID by the middle of next week, with many areas below 0 and some chances of snow. This winter just won't quit! Enjoy today, and I'll update tomorrow with more on the Sunday morning snow event!
Today in weather history- March 4, 1899- The largest storm surge in a hurricane ever recorded in the world occurs when a Category 5 cyclone (as they are called in Australia) produces a 42.6' storm surge, killing 400 people.
BONUS!- March 4, 1909- A blizzard occurs during President William Howard Taft's inauguration, as the weather bureau forecasted fair weather. Instead, a nor'easter rapidly intensifies of the New Jersey coast and dumps a foot of snow on the region. This lead to a lot of trouble for the weather bureau as well!
BRR! It is really, really cold out there this morning...especially considering it is March 4th! (The subject of a joke about the only date that is a command). Today's weather- sunny but really, really cold! Yikes! The highest snowfall total that I saw yesterday was 8.5" in Maryland, so the heavy stuff missed us by about 200 miles south. Close! We may not get as lucky this weekend, however, as a plowable snow is possible Sunday morning...accumulations don't look too major right now (2-4" maybe) but could obviously go up or down (It's another one of those clipper/nor'easter hybrids we've seen so many of this winter). With moderating temps this weekend, many were wondering if the final spring warm up was finally here. The answer is....heck NO NO NO NO NO. In fact, it won't just be cold, it will be FRIGID by the middle of next week, with many areas below 0 and some chances of snow. This winter just won't quit! Enjoy today, and I'll update tomorrow with more on the Sunday morning snow event!
Today in weather history- March 4, 1899- The largest storm surge in a hurricane ever recorded in the world occurs when a Category 5 cyclone (as they are called in Australia) produces a 42.6' storm surge, killing 400 people.
BONUS!- March 4, 1909- A blizzard occurs during President William Howard Taft's inauguration, as the weather bureau forecasted fair weather. Instead, a nor'easter rapidly intensifies of the New Jersey coast and dumps a foot of snow on the region. This lead to a lot of trouble for the weather bureau as well!
Monday, March 3, 2014
3/3/14
Good morning and happy Monday!
Get ready for frigid temperatures! Wind Chill values could approach -10 tomorrow and therefore we may get an advisory, which I would post here should that occur. The trade-off for this, however, is we miss the snowstorm that is currently pounding the mid-Atlantic with several inches of snow this morning. Be grateful! The snowstorm days are likely winding down now- with no major storms in sight, one has to wonder if we have just dodged our last significant snowfall chance of the 2013-14 winter season. We "spring ahead" this weekend, so don't forget to send your clocks forward and enjoy losing one hour of sleep! Either way, get ready for these frigid temps moving forward. Nothing much to discuss here, so enjoy your week!
Chances of snow days this week: None
Today in weather history- March 3, 1966- An F5 tornado (the most powerful) destroys Jackson, Mississippi, killing 57 people and doing $18 million in damage (1966 USD)
Get ready for frigid temperatures! Wind Chill values could approach -10 tomorrow and therefore we may get an advisory, which I would post here should that occur. The trade-off for this, however, is we miss the snowstorm that is currently pounding the mid-Atlantic with several inches of snow this morning. Be grateful! The snowstorm days are likely winding down now- with no major storms in sight, one has to wonder if we have just dodged our last significant snowfall chance of the 2013-14 winter season. We "spring ahead" this weekend, so don't forget to send your clocks forward and enjoy losing one hour of sleep! Either way, get ready for these frigid temps moving forward. Nothing much to discuss here, so enjoy your week!
Chances of snow days this week: None
Today in weather history- March 3, 1966- An F5 tornado (the most powerful) destroys Jackson, Mississippi, killing 57 people and doing $18 million in damage (1966 USD)
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Oops, hold on a minute!
Looking at the new data, there does indeed appear to have been a significant northward jog last night (more so than I realized in my blog). Increase my "it goes north and busts again" percentage to 25%. As many forecasters say "the trend is your friend", though I still don't really think that the upper level environment is there for this storm, it's worth watching!
3/2/14- Discussion of the biggest bust in recent memory
Good morning and happy Sunday, though it probably isn't for snow lovers!
Looking ahead to the week, there really are no chances for any significant snow this week, not even tonight into tomorrow. What is undoubtedly going to very much annoy some snow lovers is that areas as close as South Jersey could well receive over a foot of snow. My thoughts for Connecticut? 1-3" for everyone. There will be very, very few impacts on school tomorrow, and I would anticipate having a full day even though there is a low chance...20 percent...of a delay if the storm is slightly more significant than we think. It is intriguing to note, however, that there was a northward trend on the models last night that should insure we don't stay totally dry tomorrow. The polar vortex here is going to keep us really, really cold this week and that is certainly the main weather headline of the coming week- nighttime lows will be below 0 in many areas. Beyond tonight, there are no really good snow opportunities until next weekend, and that one is very iffy to say the least. Before I go, I just want to apologize once again for the busted forecast- it happens to everyone! In fact, considering the storm hadn't even hit the US yet, the models did indeed handle this storm remarkably well and had it within 50 miles of it's current forecast five days ago. The problem is that even that minuscule difference in mileage is going to prove the difference between picking up 13-24" and 0-3" and we ended up on the low end this time. The forecast today is still quite fragile, but mostly between going south and fringe effecting us. I would say there is a 20% chance we get nothing at all, a 5% chance the models go so far north everyone busts again, and a 75% chance of my above forecast verifying. If either of the other options occur, however, you'll be the first to know!
Today in weather history- March 2, 2009- Winter Storm Demi, the final named storm of the 2008-09 winter, drops about 6-10" of snow on Connecticut, closing schools for the fourth time (for most districts), and establishing the mark for the most snow days in many years. This number later falls in four consecutive school years when Connecticut picks up 8, 5, 13, and 8 since 2010-11...
Looking ahead to the week, there really are no chances for any significant snow this week, not even tonight into tomorrow. What is undoubtedly going to very much annoy some snow lovers is that areas as close as South Jersey could well receive over a foot of snow. My thoughts for Connecticut? 1-3" for everyone. There will be very, very few impacts on school tomorrow, and I would anticipate having a full day even though there is a low chance...20 percent...of a delay if the storm is slightly more significant than we think. It is intriguing to note, however, that there was a northward trend on the models last night that should insure we don't stay totally dry tomorrow. The polar vortex here is going to keep us really, really cold this week and that is certainly the main weather headline of the coming week- nighttime lows will be below 0 in many areas. Beyond tonight, there are no really good snow opportunities until next weekend, and that one is very iffy to say the least. Before I go, I just want to apologize once again for the busted forecast- it happens to everyone! In fact, considering the storm hadn't even hit the US yet, the models did indeed handle this storm remarkably well and had it within 50 miles of it's current forecast five days ago. The problem is that even that minuscule difference in mileage is going to prove the difference between picking up 13-24" and 0-3" and we ended up on the low end this time. The forecast today is still quite fragile, but mostly between going south and fringe effecting us. I would say there is a 20% chance we get nothing at all, a 5% chance the models go so far north everyone busts again, and a 75% chance of my above forecast verifying. If either of the other options occur, however, you'll be the first to know!
Today in weather history- March 2, 2009- Winter Storm Demi, the final named storm of the 2008-09 winter, drops about 6-10" of snow on Connecticut, closing schools for the fourth time (for most districts), and establishing the mark for the most snow days in many years. This number later falls in four consecutive school years when Connecticut picks up 8, 5, 13, and 8 since 2010-11...
Saturday, March 1, 2014
It's all over folks! Sorry!
Good Saturday evening,
Snow-haters rejoice! There will not be a major snowstorm Monday after all as the polar vortex, once most people's worst enemy, becomes their best friend by deflecting the storm out to sea. The end result is almost nothing to 3" statewide, and I can not predict anything other than a full school day on Monday as a result. Granted there is still a VERY slim chance the storm repositions north, I can't really see that happening as the PV is really strong right now and the pattern is thus not favorable to bringing a major snowstorm to New England. Additionally, I want to apologize for the hype that occurred earlier this week- the problems were always there and nobody really looked at the other possibility and I think many people- including myself- began the dreaded "wishcasting" that occurs when storms are so far out and anything remains on the table. This storm, unfortunately, will leave me with a bitter taste in my mouth after what I would define as an above-average weather forecasting winter for me. For what it's worth, the next coastal storm doesn't look to hit New England on Friday either, nor does one appear to come over the week of 3/10-3/14, and the next one any models are showing having a significant impact is March 15- it therefore would not surprise me if this was the last solid chance at a significant snowfall this season. If it is, winter 2013-14 will be remembered for its' frigid weather and many snowstorms for quite some time. The bottom line remains that this forecast, on my part, was a total bust. Truly, I apologize!!!
Snow-haters rejoice! There will not be a major snowstorm Monday after all as the polar vortex, once most people's worst enemy, becomes their best friend by deflecting the storm out to sea. The end result is almost nothing to 3" statewide, and I can not predict anything other than a full school day on Monday as a result. Granted there is still a VERY slim chance the storm repositions north, I can't really see that happening as the PV is really strong right now and the pattern is thus not favorable to bringing a major snowstorm to New England. Additionally, I want to apologize for the hype that occurred earlier this week- the problems were always there and nobody really looked at the other possibility and I think many people- including myself- began the dreaded "wishcasting" that occurs when storms are so far out and anything remains on the table. This storm, unfortunately, will leave me with a bitter taste in my mouth after what I would define as an above-average weather forecasting winter for me. For what it's worth, the next coastal storm doesn't look to hit New England on Friday either, nor does one appear to come over the week of 3/10-3/14, and the next one any models are showing having a significant impact is March 15- it therefore would not surprise me if this was the last solid chance at a significant snowfall this season. If it is, winter 2013-14 will be remembered for its' frigid weather and many snowstorms for quite some time. The bottom line remains that this forecast, on my part, was a total bust. Truly, I apologize!!!
In which the high prevails
Good morning all once again- after reviewing the 12z model runs, it appears that we will not get a major snowstorm on Monday- the question is how little we get instead of how much. My early call is 2-5" shoreline and 1-4" inland with maaaaybe 6" somewhere on the shoreline. I am still playing a bit of model roulette with this thing, but the bottom line is we dodge the bullet with this one. Again, this will not be too big of a deal with only moderate accumulations likely. Final calls still coming later tonight but there is now only a medium chance...40 percent...of a snow day on Monday based on latest data. I can here the snow-lovers groans from here in Wallingford coming from all over the area! Close, alas no cigar it appears. Could it still change? Yes, but time is running out for anything over 5" or so for most of the area.
By the way, I define 'shoreline' communities as those south of the Merritt Parkway and 'inland' communities of those north. Some towns, such as Wallingford, have the parkway running right through them, so they typically could fit in either category but for whatever reason seem to always fall into the side that has a higher forecast, so people in these areas should typically assume the higher range that I give unless I specifically mention otherwise. Just wanted to clear that up, as I realized that that reference may be a tad confusing for some!
By the way, I define 'shoreline' communities as those south of the Merritt Parkway and 'inland' communities of those north. Some towns, such as Wallingford, have the parkway running right through them, so they typically could fit in either category but for whatever reason seem to always fall into the side that has a higher forecast, so people in these areas should typically assume the higher range that I give unless I specifically mention otherwise. Just wanted to clear that up, as I realized that that reference may be a tad confusing for some!
3.1.14- I HATE MODEL DISAGREEMENT!
Good Saturday everyone and Happy March!
The snowstorm for Monday is right on the brink, with some computer models forecasting 2 feet statewide and one forecasting about 5 inches. Either way, it does seem at least some snow is likely tomorrow night and a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued later today. I was very concerned when the two most recent GFS models left the region high and dry during that time frame, but the 6 AM model run has shifted North and therefore I believe that the storm will continue trending that way- I don't think the high pressure is strong enough to deflect the storm out to sea in this instance. Also, I feel comfortable raising my totals to 10-15" with local 20" amounts...especially if current trends continue. If they do, then I'll feel comfortable making my final call later this evening on both schools and snowfall figures. When the area is placed under a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon, you'll see it here! (We have to be 36 hrs out, so around 4 PM or so is when we'll get them). Beyond this, cold weather and more storm chances do exist...we'll have to see!
Also worth noting- Today is the beginning of meteorological spring- which consists of March, April, and May. For central Connecticut- this is the 30th coldest winter on record in terms of average temperature...and featured well above average snowfall. In Bridgeport...the snowiest February on record was recorded...and the winter was the 8th snowiest on record.
Today in weather history- March 1, 1910- The deadliest avalanche in US history kills 100 people in Wellington Station, WA.
The snowstorm for Monday is right on the brink, with some computer models forecasting 2 feet statewide and one forecasting about 5 inches. Either way, it does seem at least some snow is likely tomorrow night and a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued later today. I was very concerned when the two most recent GFS models left the region high and dry during that time frame, but the 6 AM model run has shifted North and therefore I believe that the storm will continue trending that way- I don't think the high pressure is strong enough to deflect the storm out to sea in this instance. Also, I feel comfortable raising my totals to 10-15" with local 20" amounts...especially if current trends continue. If they do, then I'll feel comfortable making my final call later this evening on both schools and snowfall figures. When the area is placed under a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon, you'll see it here! (We have to be 36 hrs out, so around 4 PM or so is when we'll get them). Beyond this, cold weather and more storm chances do exist...we'll have to see!
Also worth noting- Today is the beginning of meteorological spring- which consists of March, April, and May. For central Connecticut- this is the 30th coldest winter on record in terms of average temperature...and featured well above average snowfall. In Bridgeport...the snowiest February on record was recorded...and the winter was the 8th snowiest on record.
Today in weather history- March 1, 1910- The deadliest avalanche in US history kills 100 people in Wellington Station, WA.
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