Good evening all-
I felt like I would share a few interesting developments with the storm this afternoon. First, the models have trended a solid 25 miles west from earlier today. Is it something to watch? Yes. Are the odds of a snowstorm any more significant than they were this morning? Yes. Is it more than 20%? NO, but it's probably around that instead of about 10% this morning.
On another note, tracking this storm will be fun for weather geeks anyways. This is one of the most intense storms I have ever seen off the coast of New England. At peak intensity Wednesday, the pressure may be nearly as low as it was during Hurricane Sandy! My friends, this is an storm.
Also, if you want to know how close this is, and why forecasting storms is so hard, this is a perfect example. If you have followed my blog, you have heard me discuss the 40N/70W benchmark for nor'easters that dumps CT...This storm is going to track to about 40N/69W. That is soooo close, so the forecast remains fragile. Overnight models will be interesting, as any further westward trend causes big trouble.
Also, it is intriguing to note something as well. The definition of 'blizzard' has nothing to do with snow amounts and is instead gusts to 35+ mph for 3 straight hrs with whiteout conditions. Interestingly, southern areas of our area may be close to reaching Blizzard criteria tomorrow night due to blowing snow and not necessarily pick up tons of snow. It can occur that someone gets a Blizzard watch for 2-4" of snow. It is highly rare in Connecticut, but it may be possible tomorrow night...we'll see!
If anything big happens, you'll be the first to know as I'll update!
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