Update on Tues PM/Weds

Good evening all-

The trends I have seen in the models warrant this update. Remember I have said three options exist? I think I can rule out one...

which one is it?



it is...




A total miss is what will not occur with this storm. In fact, it appears certain now that at least some accumulating snow reaches our forecast. What we are unsure of is how much. The new ECMWF tracked the storm far northwest of it's overnight run today, increasing the odds of a big hit. What does this mean? Quite simply, a glancing blow would be about 2-5" of snow for central CT and likely have at least some impact on schools Weds, but nothing too major.

On the other hand, should this thing track any further west, well...the area gets an epic blizzard that dumps epic amounts of snow, some areas may surpass what they got last year, have 60 mph sustained winds, etc.... Each has a 50-50 chance of happening. Tomorrow is the key part of the forecast. By tomorrow night, I should be able to give a pretty good guess as to accumulations.

ACCUMULATION POSSIBILITY FOR THE STORMS

Glancing blow (Current model mean)- Around 4-8"
Direct hit (ECMWF, and a few minor models)- 2 to 4 feet (My guess would be an average of 30-36" for most) widespread in southern New England. Close call everyone- stay tuned!