9/28- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Evening Update

Hey everyone-

We had a truly amazing summer of weather this year, amazingly dry, not all that hot, and pretty much amazing.

Unfortunately, as many people will tell you in meteorology, nature tends to balance out the extremes.

The good news is, we can really use the rain...but this is ridiculous.

Unfortunately, Tropical Depression #11 is seemingly determined to try to get mentioned in the same vein around here as the I word and the S word. I dare not say them yet, but the potential of the weekend storm is massive.

Models are all over the place. I'm the first to admit when I have no idea what will happen. This time, I have an idea, but it's a broad one. Someone along the east coast north of the Carolinas will likely experience a landfalling tropical cyclone this weekend. The concerning part is that the model consensus is focusing on Connecticut and New York.

How strong it is will largely depend on whether it can get its' act together over the Gulf Stream. The models are all over the place with this. Two tropical models, the HWRF and the GFDL, suggest the worst hurricane in the history of the northeast is just 4 days away, with a category 3 or 4 hitting somewhere between North Jersey and Connecticut. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. Others, such as the GFS, take a minor tropical system into New York, while the Euro is a strong hurricane in the Carolinas, but most models are somewhere between the extremes. The problem is that, if you average a category 3 and a tropical storm, you get about a 95mph category 1.or 2...which I am sad to say is certainly within the realm of possibility.

I don't want to alarm you all, but I would certainly begin reviewing my hurricane plans and have something in place in the chance Joaquin comes our way. More updates will be on here tomorrow, but make no mistake this is BY FAR the biggest threat since Sandy.





To say this is rather alarming is an understatement.


These may be flying in the northeast this weekend. Yikes!