3/31- Nice Today, Snow is coming

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a beautiful, beautiful day with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and bright sunshine. Unfortunately, it will only last today- clouds will be on the increase by late afternoon, and tomorrow is going to be a very wet day, a total washout. Thankfully, it'll clear by Saturday which looks dry. Sunday looks very cold and pretty snowy, with a couple of inches of snow accumulation not out of the realm of possibility as a clipper system moves in.

Now for Tuesday...the models seem to be whiffle-waffling on the exact placement of the low. The GFS says it's north of us...which at this time of the year would be a snow quickly changing to rain event. The Euro, however...has it just to our south. Such a scenario would produce a significant snowstorm for all of Southern New England...and thus we have to watch carefully.

3/30- STORM WATCH- Really, just really?

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a very nice day as a general rule- highs will be in the high 50s and bright sunshine will prevail, though temps this morning are in fact a touch below average. Tomorrow will be even better, but winds and clouds will be on the increase tomorrow until a heavy rainstorm moves in for Friday, with between 0.25 and 0.75" of rain as a general rule. The weekend looks absolutely freezing, as we are heading for near record territory. Highs on Sunday will be hard pressed to reach 45, with snow likely, yes snow, on April 2nd! It just gets more ridiculous though- we may not get to even 40 on Monday...before a setup on Tuesday bears watching.

On Tuesday, a clipper system will be moving through the region with either rain, or snow. At the moment...it's likely to be snow across at least northern Connecticut. Normally, a clipper is not a big deal, but this one is trying to "bomb out" off the coast. If this occurs, a late season heavy accumulation of snow would cross at least parts of Connecticut. See below...


^ The 0z GFS showing about 4-8" of snow for northern Connecticut Tuesday.

Although this result would be extreme, there is some support from other models, so it bears watching!

Today in weather history- March 30, 1977- Hartford's warmest March day on record occurs, as the mercury soars to 87. Ironically...there would be a large snowstorm on May 12(!!) that same year.

3/29- The Blustry Day

Good Tuesday all-

A WIND ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut until 6PM tonight.

Wow is it windy today! Winds are gusting to as much as 50mph across the state, and we can expect this to continue through much of the day today. Thankfully, no precipitation will add insult to injury, so expect highs in the 50s, partly cloudy skies and extreme wind- so bundle up like it is February as it will feel that way! A warm up is on the way for the next few days- we should reach the 60s tomorrow and Thursday. Sadly, Friday looks like a total washout as a very slow moving powerful cold front stalls right over Connecticut- up to an inch of rain is not impossible as we head through that timespan. By the weekend, though, we really feel the effects of that front- highs will be stuck in the low 40s or high 30s, and it will probably even snow on Sunday as a clipper moves through the region! Although it's almost certainly not going to accumulate, it's still a bit of a shock to see snow on April 3rd!

Today in weather history- March 29, 1945- Providence, RI reaches 90 degrees, marking the earliest 90 degree day for anyone in New England, making this the warmest March day in history for our region.

3/28- Wet wet wet

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be very wet as a coastal storm goes off the coast and another low comes in from the midwest. Although they will never quite completely merge, they're moisture will combine forces to drop rain through much of the day today. Fortunately, it's just today- tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday all look just fine with temps in the 50s and 60s, along with partly cloudy skies. The other chance for precip this work week comes Friday, which could be a total washout as a powerful cold front moves through, sending temps plummeting into the 40s for Saturday and 30s with SNOW on Sunday. Although snow is not unheard of on April 3rd...it would be the second latest snowfall of the last 18 years.

Today in weather history- March 28, 1984- A massive tornado occurs on the South Carolina/North Carolina border, which at times is 2.5 miles wide, among the widest ever recorded. 21 other tornadoes occur on this day, ultimately killing 57 people, the majority of them in mobile homes.

Easter

Hey everyone- from me and my family, I wish everyone here a very happy Easter Sunday- may it be one to remember for all of you!

3/25- Stormy, nice Easter Weekend

Good Friday all- (The one day a year I say that!!)

All of CT is under a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather

Today is going to be a miserable day from the beginning- rain is already arriving in western Connecticut and will spread eastward through the morning, becoming heavier as the day progresses and peaking at around noon when thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are not out of the realm of possibility. The one good thing about today is that high temperatures will be in the mid-60s, so at least you'll be warm while you are drying yourself out. Fortunately, the rest of Easter weekend looks mild and sunny, with highs in the upper 50s tomorrow and lower 60s on the big day itself. By Monday however, a coastal low will drop heavy rain on Connecticut, especially in the morning hours. Exactly what the impacts will be remain to be seen, but you can count on being wet! The remaining part of next week looks partly cloudy and seasonable.

Today in weather history- March 25, 1934- A classic example of what can go wrong in a snowstorm forecast at this time of year if the air is too dry. Amarillo, TX receives 21" of snow...at least, they would have had it not all melted on contact except for a paltry 4". That is an extreme example, but...that goes to show the challenges faced with getting a significant snowstorm at this time of year!

3/24- Chilly to Wet

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a rather unfortunate day, with highs in the low 50s or even high 40s with scattered showers as a cold front stalls just barely to our south. Sadly, tomorrow looks worse in terms of precip, but much better in terms of temperature. Although highs will likely reach the mid-60s...we will probably be wet the vast majority of the day tomorrow, though some clearing is possible in the late afternoon tomorrow as a cold front moves through. I cannot even rule out some thunderstorms during the day...though the risk is not nearly as high as it would be if the front came a few hours later.  Nonetheless, the SPC has placed Connecticut under a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather, so it's not impossible! The weekend looks great, but rain returns by Monday.

Today in weather history- March 24, 1912- A monster snowstorm drops 25" of snow in Kansas City, MO, breaking their all-time record for snowiest winter, sending them to 67" for the season. Even more remarkable is that this storm produced more than twice as much snow....than any other storm in recorded history!

3/23- Some showers, cold and snowy April?

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a very springlike day all things considered, although some showers are possible during the day today (especially early). Tomorrow looks dry, but there are serious questions as to whether a backdoor cold front will clear CT before it stalls. Whether it does or not will decide if we see highs in the mid-60s or low 50s...so it's a pretty big difference there. Regardless of what happens, Friday looks like a washout, at least in the morning, as a cold front moves through with heavy precipitation...and 0.25-0.75" of rain is possible during that timeframe. The weekend looks fine before the rain returns on Monday.

Sadly, however, I cannot say with confidence that we are done with snow...the first week of April looks cold and with precip around you cannot rule out snow, as indicated by last night's GFS...


^ Last night's GFS showing a nearly unprecedented snowstorm for April 8


 Today in weather history- March 23, 1913- A tornado clobbers downtown Omaha, NE, managing to leave a 5 mile long swath of destruction, killing 94 and doing $3.5 million in damage. To make matters worse, this was on Easter Sunday, so it likely was almost as bad as it could be with everyone in church!

3/22- Tame weather for now, active early April

Good Tuesday all-

There really is not much to talk about right now in the weather world, but before we begin, I congratulate Tolland on their jackpot yesterday- you've received 6.5" of snow! There is no additional snow in sight for this week though- the general rule of this week is partly cloudy and highs in the 60s. The exception to this rule is Friday morning, which will feature a pronounced line of showers as a cold front moves through the region from west to east. This weekend looks spectacular, with sunny skies and mid-50s on both Saturday and Easter.

It is worth noting though that although there is no snow this week...I do not believe we are finished...as there are many signs for a cold and snowy start to the month of April. We'll have to just wait and see as time goes on.

Today in weather history- March 22, 1990- If you think this is cold, then this is a record that will make you shiver- Barrow, AK, located along the far north coast of Alaska, records their record high temperature of...20 degrees. Today...they have a forecasted high of 2 degrees.

3/21- Snow ending, great week ahead

Good Monday all-

All of the state except for Fairfield and Litchfield Counties have WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES--

First off, congrats to Tolland on picking up 6" of snow today! That's pretty impressive!

Overall, I'm pretty pleased with the way my forecast played out- although in many cases it was overdone, I'd always rather get the high end outlier instead of the low end because I feel people are happier when I predict more than what actually falls. That said, 3-6" fell for pretty much everyone, though surely someone in eastern CT will get more than that.

Today itself will not be too bad with highs in the 40s and clearing skies as the snow makes its' exit, but please be careful on the roads today. Many schools are delayed or closed today....so take that extra travel time and use it wisely!

The rest of the week...apart from a light wintry mix on Wednesday and a heavy rainstorm Friday morning...looks just fine, with temps in either the 50s or the 60s depending on the day, with Wednesday and Thursday being the warmest of them.


 It may not feel like it, but yesterday was the Vernal Equinox, that magical moment when winter releases its' grip on our region and we prepare for another warm to hot summer...and we get heavy snow on the first day of it. Go figure, but spring is truly here, so enjoy dreams of plants and swimming pools as you shovel today.

STORM WARNING- Flip and a flop and away we go

Good Sunday all-

Well, this will surprise you...

A WINTER STORM WARNING is up for New London, a WINTER STORM WATCH is up for Tolland and Windham, and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for New Haven, Hartford, and Middlesex.

Incredibly, for the third time this season, the models have jogged way west at the last second again, forcing me to go from forecasting nothing to several inches. My new snow map is below...



This amount of snow is going to fall tonight, which is obviously somewhat problematic. These numbers are very fragile and continue to be subjected to change, as a slight jog west introduces 5-10" totals to almost all of the state...while a jog east would drag that 3-6" line far closer to the Rhode Island border than I am currently forecasting...though time is running out. The snow should begin at around 7 or 8 tonight and continue through the early morning hours of tomorrow. This will be a very nastily tough call for superintendents. I'm most inclined to think that many districts east of route 8 will be closed completely, while areas west of there likely will escape with a delay. What a way to welcome spring...stay warm tonight!