Monday, March 14, 2016

3/14- STORM WATCH- Pi Day Rain, late season shock Sunday?

Good Monday all-

Well, a day that we celebrate the magical number of 3.14 is going to be very wet, as showers, potentially heavy at times, impact the state today. In fact, much of the week looks wet, especially today and Thursday, but...we can look forward to a very nice Saturday with temps in the 50s and partly sunny skies.

Beyond that, however, Sunday could be a HUGE problem throughout the entire region as all the models agree on the development of a monster nor'easter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
 ^06z GFS showing blizzard conditions for NY, VT, NH, and a very close call for CT

That's obviously miles too close for comfort. Taken verbatim, this solution brings blizzard conditions to Albany. Thus, I am concerned about the POTENTIAL of an extremely late season snowstorm next Sunday. With all of the blooms going on, such a scenario would have a big impact on the growing season, so let's hope we dodge this one as the timing would be very bad. Equally possible is a cold rainstorm with an inch of rain or more. All in all...the odds of either getting 6+" of snow or 1+" of rain are about even but when combined yield a result far greater than 25%. Thus...a STORM WATCH is up for Sunday. Exactly what will happen will likely remain unclear until around Thursday or Friday though, so there is plenty of time to watch this one.

Today in weather history- March 12-14, 1993- The legendary one, the greatest blizzard of all-time for the east coast, the Superstorm of '93, clobbers the entire east coast from Georgia to Maine. Although totals in Connecticut are relatively tame (about a foot), Mt. LeConte, TN, picks up 60" of snow- or five feet. Yeesh!

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