Well, models yesterday...made things a lot more interesting to say the least for Sunday night. The Euro in particularly alarming, but so are the majority of other models. If the current models hold, and I cannot stress enough that it is still early, we could be looking at a historic blizzard Sunday night and Monday morning. Taken literally...the Euro drops over two feet of snow...along with winds gusting over 50mph. Is this the most likely solution? It's hard to say yes for sure, however...there is a legitimate pathway to this occurring. I deem it possible- and at this stage, I would say the odds of 6+" of snow are greater than 50% (but not by much). The real problem is that the odds of a foot or more of snow and blizzard conditions have now exceeded 25%. Thus, the storm watch is upgraded to a severe storm watch...the second one I have issued this year (the first ended up being Blizzard Anna).
Look, here is the bottom line. I do not want to hype this storm. That said, the setup is there for something truly special. As far as I see it, there are three things that could happen realistically- which I will describe here from least likely to most likely.
Least likely- The wintry mix
One possible setup would be snow to ice to rain and maybe back to snow at the end as the track runs too close to Connecticut to keep the snow all cold. My concern is that the high is very unlikely to be far enough west...so this is the least likely scenario for New England.
The glancing blow- 2-4" of snow
This is close, but not close enough- a situation like this would occur if that high pressure system is a touch stronger than expected and is able to shove the storm off to the southeast dealing us a small amount. This solution is favored by the GFS.
The full storm- 1-2ft, 50mph wind
If you like snow, this would make all your dreams come true as a monster storm over the benchmark as this shows would mean that we are dealing with something extremely rare for this late in the season but it's cold enough to work thanks to that weak high, which locks in the cold air. At the moment, the UK model and the Euro both show this solution
All in all, any of the 3 is possible, as is something between them. Let's just see what happens. Also, notice how close the difference is between the three solutions? That's why it's so tough to forecast this kind of storm...a 25-50 mile difference can change everything.
Oh by the way, today is going to be pretty stormy, and the SPC has placed Connecticut in a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather again, similar to yesterday, but most of New England to our north is actually under a MARGINAL risk, the next highest level up on the scale.
All I can say is we have to watch this one.
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