Alright everyone, Winter Storm Ariana is here!!
Unfortunately, there are still a huge number of possibilities that could happen in today's storm. There was a bit of a trend towards more sleet last night, which could severely cut down snowfall totals to something like 3-6" or 2-5" if we are unlucky, whereas cooler areas in New Haven county, such as Meriden/Wallingford/North Haven, could easily pick up a half foot of snow today...or hardly anything, depending on where the sleet line sets up. This has been a storm that has been modeled absolutely pathetically by the models, and this should really ignite some tinkering with them because, quite honestly, I will have a hard time trusting them for quite a while. What a nightmare this week has been for me and prediction wise...a brutal forecast that still, I have to give the huge range of 3-10 inches of snow depending on how much sleet mixes in. Obviously, the most likely range is roughly 4-8" if you forced me to pick a smaller range. Either way, enjoy today if you get a snow day!
I'll update later tonight with my snowfall total as well as others from across CT.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Hello, Ariana!
Hey everyone-
The forecast remains steady, but I am updating to inform you that channel 3 has upgraded their storm total to a statewide average of six inches...which means we now have the first named storm of 2014-15...Winter Storm Ariana! The Weather Channel's name for this storm, Cato, will not be used here, since the WFSB storm names are more local. Note that, contrary to belief in recent years, there is no offical name for winter storms, and this is done purely to increase awareness. Many in the meteorological world disagree with this practice, however I will use them because it is easier to refer to them from a historical standpoint.
For example- 2013's blizzard was named Charlotte, 2006's was Carson, and we got all the way to Winter Storm Olivia in 1995-96! The most named storms I've seen in a winter is 5, which happened in both 2010-11 and 2013-14, though last year we came one inch shy of having a sixth named storm.
The forecast remains steady, but I am updating to inform you that channel 3 has upgraded their storm total to a statewide average of six inches...which means we now have the first named storm of 2014-15...Winter Storm Ariana! The Weather Channel's name for this storm, Cato, will not be used here, since the WFSB storm names are more local. Note that, contrary to belief in recent years, there is no offical name for winter storms, and this is done purely to increase awareness. Many in the meteorological world disagree with this practice, however I will use them because it is easier to refer to them from a historical standpoint.
For example- 2013's blizzard was named Charlotte, 2006's was Carson, and we got all the way to Winter Storm Olivia in 1995-96! The most named storms I've seen in a winter is 5, which happened in both 2010-11 and 2013-14, though last year we came one inch shy of having a sixth named storm.
11/25- STORM WARNING- Major nor'easter on the way
Good Tuesday all-
A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Litchfield county, and the WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to the shoreline in New Haven and Fairfield counties. The computer models actually trended a bit snowier last night, but there are still a significant number saying 2-5"...and a significant number saying 12-20". Thus, I'll stick in the middle with 5-10" and go from there. This is among the most complex storms to predict as a forecaster. There is going to be an area where wintry mix cuts down the snow totals by over half...while the town immediately to their north and west could get two or even three times as much as the surrounding areas. It really is all about the timing of the cold air. If this was January, it would be 1-2 feet for everyone...but it isn't, so those totals should be relegated to just NW of the rain/snow line. I think someone in New England will receive 18", but whether that's over us, in the Berkshires, or near Boston? Anybody's guess, quite honestly. For example, NOAA gives me in Wallingford a 15% chance of barely getting an inch...and a 15% chance of picking up well over a foot. The volatility of snowfall forecasts with this storm is incredible...and I am sure I'll have different totals later tonight. There is a chance I come back tonight and say "hardly anything", but there is also a chance I say "everyone's getting a foot or more", as well as "looks like somewhere in between". Each of these has a roughly 30% chance of happening...but I think the snowier solution is more likely. The odds are broken down below:
North of I-91's exit 9
2+"- 100%
4+"- 75%
6+"- 50/50
8+"- 45%
1 foot +- 25%
South of that
2"- 80%
4"- 50/50
6"- 40%
8"- 25%
1 foot + - 10%
I HATE not being able to be more specific especially being less than a day out, but there is a truly equal chance of anywhere between 2 and 18 inches. This is the most annoying forecast I've had in recent memory. Be prepared to be disappointed with little snow, or have three times as much snow as some channels are forecasting. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.
Mid-day model runs today will be key. I'll update around 6 tonight for final predictions. Enjoy!
A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Litchfield county, and the WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to the shoreline in New Haven and Fairfield counties. The computer models actually trended a bit snowier last night, but there are still a significant number saying 2-5"...and a significant number saying 12-20". Thus, I'll stick in the middle with 5-10" and go from there. This is among the most complex storms to predict as a forecaster. There is going to be an area where wintry mix cuts down the snow totals by over half...while the town immediately to their north and west could get two or even three times as much as the surrounding areas. It really is all about the timing of the cold air. If this was January, it would be 1-2 feet for everyone...but it isn't, so those totals should be relegated to just NW of the rain/snow line. I think someone in New England will receive 18", but whether that's over us, in the Berkshires, or near Boston? Anybody's guess, quite honestly. For example, NOAA gives me in Wallingford a 15% chance of barely getting an inch...and a 15% chance of picking up well over a foot. The volatility of snowfall forecasts with this storm is incredible...and I am sure I'll have different totals later tonight. There is a chance I come back tonight and say "hardly anything", but there is also a chance I say "everyone's getting a foot or more", as well as "looks like somewhere in between". Each of these has a roughly 30% chance of happening...but I think the snowier solution is more likely. The odds are broken down below:
North of I-91's exit 9
2+"- 100%
4+"- 75%
6+"- 50/50
8+"- 45%
1 foot +- 25%
South of that
2"- 80%
4"- 50/50
6"- 40%
8"- 25%
1 foot + - 10%
I HATE not being able to be more specific especially being less than a day out, but there is a truly equal chance of anywhere between 2 and 18 inches. This is the most annoying forecast I've had in recent memory. Be prepared to be disappointed with little snow, or have three times as much snow as some channels are forecasting. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.
Mid-day model runs today will be key. I'll update around 6 tonight for final predictions. Enjoy!
Monday, November 24, 2014
11/24- WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY!!!!!
Good Monday all
This is Thanksgiving week, and this is that last thing you want to hear for the big travel day before thanksgiving. It's my favorite words, but everyone else's least favorite
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entirety of the region except the immediate shoreline, but I think even they'll get one this afternoon.
The ECMWF shifted east last night, so we finally have a pretty decent idea for accumulations. In the end, I think most of, if not all of Connecticut, is about to pick up six to twelve inches of snow, mostly Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Today, it will be warm but very wet, and it is really going to pour this AM dropping 0.5" to 1" of rain on everyone. The rain should be gone by about noon though, and it wouldn't surprise me if someone hit 70 degrees today! Tomorrow, though, we trend colder before the big hammer drops Wednesday. Here's what I'm thinking.
Wednesday morning we'll wake up to mostly cloudy skies.
Rain or a wintry mix (depending on how far north you are) develops at around noon
By 3-4 PM, the mix changes to a heavy wet snow.
It snows extremely hard all night and into the morning on Thursday.
Snow comes to an end 9-10 AM Thursday morning from northwest to southeast.
All in all, be ready to shovel, plow, and the whole deal. A major nor'easter is coming, it's no longer a hypothetical. It will happen. My call is 6-12" north of exit 9, with 4-7" south of that.
Enjoy the snow, but please change travel plans Wednesday, especially the afternoon. You'll be snowed in if you don't and spending thanksgiving on your own!
This is Thanksgiving week, and this is that last thing you want to hear for the big travel day before thanksgiving. It's my favorite words, but everyone else's least favorite
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entirety of the region except the immediate shoreline, but I think even they'll get one this afternoon.
The ECMWF shifted east last night, so we finally have a pretty decent idea for accumulations. In the end, I think most of, if not all of Connecticut, is about to pick up six to twelve inches of snow, mostly Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Today, it will be warm but very wet, and it is really going to pour this AM dropping 0.5" to 1" of rain on everyone. The rain should be gone by about noon though, and it wouldn't surprise me if someone hit 70 degrees today! Tomorrow, though, we trend colder before the big hammer drops Wednesday. Here's what I'm thinking.
Wednesday morning we'll wake up to mostly cloudy skies.
Rain or a wintry mix (depending on how far north you are) develops at around noon
By 3-4 PM, the mix changes to a heavy wet snow.
It snows extremely hard all night and into the morning on Thursday.
Snow comes to an end 9-10 AM Thursday morning from northwest to southeast.
All in all, be ready to shovel, plow, and the whole deal. A major nor'easter is coming, it's no longer a hypothetical. It will happen. My call is 6-12" north of exit 9, with 4-7" south of that.
Enjoy the snow, but please change travel plans Wednesday, especially the afternoon. You'll be snowed in if you don't and spending thanksgiving on your own!
Sunday, November 23, 2014
STORM WATCH UPDATE- Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare Developing
Well everyone- the verdict is in...and it's probably the one that most of you were not hoping for.
Personally, I am delighted to announce that our first truly major snowfall is likely on the way for Wednesday evening. Exact amounts remain to be determined. The track still needs to be pinpointed because the timing of the cold air arriving will be a huge key for how much we get. If the Euro is right...I think most places get 3-6" followed by freezing rain, whereas if the GFS is right, we get mostly if not entirely snow...and some places would get over one foot. Thus, I hesitate to forecast amounts, but I'll do it just so you see the average. A decent place to start is 4-7" shoreline, and 6-12" inland, but these could certainly change (and probably will as we narrow down the track). Either way, the timing of the storm is also key, and here is a look at your week ahead to plan for the turkey day!
Tomorrow (Monday 11/24)- Heavy rain, 0.5-1" of accumulation, especially in the AM, but highs in the 60s!!
Tuesday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler. Highs in the 50s.
Wednesday- (Steve's big time clunker of the week)- Increasing clouds, rain developing in the afternoon, changing to snow around 5-10 PM statewide. Near-blizzard or blizzard conditions develop around midnight. Major accumulations possible, stay tuned.
Thanksgiving- Heavy snow in the morning, tapering off by 9 or 10 AM. Early call is 6-12" north of I-91's exit 9, and 3-6" south of that. Subject to change. PM flurries possible as the storm pulls away. Highs in the low 40s
Friday- Much better, partly cloudy but somewhat cold.
Saturday- Watching a clipper for some light accumulating snow but way too early for details and it will not be as big as Wednesday's storm.
Please keep an eye on this blog in the coming days. This could be our biggest snowstorm since March 2013 if things play out right...I believe that the storm name would be Anna on Channel 3, and the Weather Channel's name would be Cato.
I expect NOAA to issue Winter Storm Watches tomorrow afternoon if nothing significant changes.
Personally, I am delighted to announce that our first truly major snowfall is likely on the way for Wednesday evening. Exact amounts remain to be determined. The track still needs to be pinpointed because the timing of the cold air arriving will be a huge key for how much we get. If the Euro is right...I think most places get 3-6" followed by freezing rain, whereas if the GFS is right, we get mostly if not entirely snow...and some places would get over one foot. Thus, I hesitate to forecast amounts, but I'll do it just so you see the average. A decent place to start is 4-7" shoreline, and 6-12" inland, but these could certainly change (and probably will as we narrow down the track). Either way, the timing of the storm is also key, and here is a look at your week ahead to plan for the turkey day!
Tomorrow (Monday 11/24)- Heavy rain, 0.5-1" of accumulation, especially in the AM, but highs in the 60s!!
Tuesday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler. Highs in the 50s.
Wednesday- (Steve's big time clunker of the week)- Increasing clouds, rain developing in the afternoon, changing to snow around 5-10 PM statewide. Near-blizzard or blizzard conditions develop around midnight. Major accumulations possible, stay tuned.
Thanksgiving- Heavy snow in the morning, tapering off by 9 or 10 AM. Early call is 6-12" north of I-91's exit 9, and 3-6" south of that. Subject to change. PM flurries possible as the storm pulls away. Highs in the low 40s
Friday- Much better, partly cloudy but somewhat cold.
Saturday- Watching a clipper for some light accumulating snow but way too early for details and it will not be as big as Wednesday's storm.
Please keep an eye on this blog in the coming days. This could be our biggest snowstorm since March 2013 if things play out right...I believe that the storm name would be Anna on Channel 3, and the Weather Channel's name would be Cato.
I expect NOAA to issue Winter Storm Watches tomorrow afternoon if nothing significant changes.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Is a Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare Unfolding?
Hey everyone-
Here's the latest on the potential winter storm on Weds/Thurs of next week. There are two distinct model camps for this one still. The GFS looked like it was caving to the Euro last night, but it's back out to sea this morning. The problem that I am faced with is that the Euro not only stayed with a hit...but made it a significantly bigger hit...and if it pans out just a bit colder would be a brutal, brutal snowstorm for many people in our area, featuring blizzard conditions and several feet of snow, since the model is showing almost two inches of liquid precipitation. As it is now, it's more of a wintry mess, with probably 3-6" of slushy snow and rain. UGH! This is the main frustration of being a weatherman...and it can be really painful sometimes. You have a forecast that people are going to be asking you for all week, and all I can really honestly say with confidence is "There will be a storm nearby, but it might rain, snow, a mixture of both, or be sunny". All we can do is wait and see. I was watching the news this morning and one channel said they think the storm will miss. I don't ordinarily comment on this...but that seems utterly insane to say at this stage when the most accurate computer model shows a direct hit. Granted, there are more models out to sea to our south, but only just barely to our south, and the Euro was the one that accurately portrayed Hurricane Sandy a week out. Play the waiting game here, but if you are traveling late Wednesday or thanksgiving morning, I'd have a backup plan in mind should we get clobbered by this storm.
Here's the latest on the potential winter storm on Weds/Thurs of next week. There are two distinct model camps for this one still. The GFS looked like it was caving to the Euro last night, but it's back out to sea this morning. The problem that I am faced with is that the Euro not only stayed with a hit...but made it a significantly bigger hit...and if it pans out just a bit colder would be a brutal, brutal snowstorm for many people in our area, featuring blizzard conditions and several feet of snow, since the model is showing almost two inches of liquid precipitation. As it is now, it's more of a wintry mess, with probably 3-6" of slushy snow and rain. UGH! This is the main frustration of being a weatherman...and it can be really painful sometimes. You have a forecast that people are going to be asking you for all week, and all I can really honestly say with confidence is "There will be a storm nearby, but it might rain, snow, a mixture of both, or be sunny". All we can do is wait and see. I was watching the news this morning and one channel said they think the storm will miss. I don't ordinarily comment on this...but that seems utterly insane to say at this stage when the most accurate computer model shows a direct hit. Granted, there are more models out to sea to our south, but only just barely to our south, and the Euro was the one that accurately portrayed Hurricane Sandy a week out. Play the waiting game here, but if you are traveling late Wednesday or thanksgiving morning, I'd have a backup plan in mind should we get clobbered by this storm.
Friday, November 21, 2014
11/21- Brief Update
Hey everyone-
Sorry for not making my regular post today but I have had a bit of a crazy morning running around. In any event, I'm making this unusually timed post for a number of reasons. The first is to issue a STORM WATCH for The night of 11/26 and 11/27- this is Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day, as the European model is now showing a large nor'easter developing off our shoreline. Exactly what type of precip, if any, will fall, is very much still up in the air, but the timing of this is important enough to issue this advisory.
On another note, I will not be able to update this again (after tomorrow morning) until Sunday night- I am going away tomorrow and will not be home in time for the evening update nor the morning of 11/23.
If anyone is wondering, and please take this with a jar of salt, taken verbatim (or literally exactly what it shows now), the euro is showing rain changing to an accumulating snow along the lines of 4-8 inches. For now, don't panic and wait to see what the weekend model runs bring.
Sorry for not making my regular post today but I have had a bit of a crazy morning running around. In any event, I'm making this unusually timed post for a number of reasons. The first is to issue a STORM WATCH for The night of 11/26 and 11/27- this is Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day, as the European model is now showing a large nor'easter developing off our shoreline. Exactly what type of precip, if any, will fall, is very much still up in the air, but the timing of this is important enough to issue this advisory.
On another note, I will not be able to update this again (after tomorrow morning) until Sunday night- I am going away tomorrow and will not be home in time for the evening update nor the morning of 11/23.
If anyone is wondering, and please take this with a jar of salt, taken verbatim (or literally exactly what it shows now), the euro is showing rain changing to an accumulating snow along the lines of 4-8 inches. For now, don't panic and wait to see what the weekend model runs bring.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
11/20- Dozer weather
Good Thursday all-
Well, I shan't bore you with any long technical discussion, but simply give you an update on the few "trouble dates" in the forecast and give you an early forecast for turkey day!
Monday: A storm moves far to our west, but still gives us a fair amount of rain, let's say between 0.5" and 0.75" with locally as much as 1" for now.
Wednesday: The coastal storm misses, but a cold front should still provide mixed precip
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate snow. There could be accumulations here as a clipper system moves through...that would be quite the thanksgiving gift...we'll see what happens!
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development occurred with the system yesterday, nor is any expected anytime soon. 10 days until the end of the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 20, 2014- Well, I hardly ever do this, but it's worth it. Two to three more feet of snow are expected south of Buffalo today, which could in some areas push total 48 hour snowfall to over one hundred inches! I don't think it can be argued that this deserves mention here since this would be nearly unprecedented for Buffalo, even with how used to snow they are.
Well, I shan't bore you with any long technical discussion, but simply give you an update on the few "trouble dates" in the forecast and give you an early forecast for turkey day!
Monday: A storm moves far to our west, but still gives us a fair amount of rain, let's say between 0.5" and 0.75" with locally as much as 1" for now.
Wednesday: The coastal storm misses, but a cold front should still provide mixed precip
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate snow. There could be accumulations here as a clipper system moves through...that would be quite the thanksgiving gift...we'll see what happens!
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development occurred with the system yesterday, nor is any expected anytime soon. 10 days until the end of the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 20, 2014- Well, I hardly ever do this, but it's worth it. Two to three more feet of snow are expected south of Buffalo today, which could in some areas push total 48 hour snowfall to over one hundred inches! I don't think it can be argued that this deserves mention here since this would be nearly unprecedented for Buffalo, even with how used to snow they are.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
11/19- Could it be a warm up?
Good Wednesday all-
And once again there is really not going to be a long post today. All I can really talk about is temperatures but there is a significant warm-up on the way so, even though it is absolutely freezing this morning (I had a temperature of 19 at my house), it will get better. In fact, it may reach 60 on Sunday before we get the cold front that will bring it down into the 40s once more around Wednesday, but a massive rainstorm is possible on Wednesday with an inch or more of rain looking possible, but this is far from agreed upon in the fickle computer model world, so let's keep our fingers crossed- that would be utterly miserable for people trying to travel somewhere for the turkey day holiday.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- A low 550 miles south of Manzanillo has a brief window to develop today and tomorrow before shear becomes unfavorable, though there is a pretty decent chance it will indeed develop.
12 days to the end of hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 19, 1981- A foot of snow falls on the twin cities, which is not unusual in and of itself, but because it was the wet kind, the roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, home of the Twins and Vikings, collapses.
And once again there is really not going to be a long post today. All I can really talk about is temperatures but there is a significant warm-up on the way so, even though it is absolutely freezing this morning (I had a temperature of 19 at my house), it will get better. In fact, it may reach 60 on Sunday before we get the cold front that will bring it down into the 40s once more around Wednesday, but a massive rainstorm is possible on Wednesday with an inch or more of rain looking possible, but this is far from agreed upon in the fickle computer model world, so let's keep our fingers crossed- that would be utterly miserable for people trying to travel somewhere for the turkey day holiday.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- A low 550 miles south of Manzanillo has a brief window to develop today and tomorrow before shear becomes unfavorable, though there is a pretty decent chance it will indeed develop.
12 days to the end of hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 19, 1981- A foot of snow falls on the twin cities, which is not unusual in and of itself, but because it was the wet kind, the roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, home of the Twins and Vikings, collapses.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
11/18- Even colder!
Good Tuesday everyone-
Well, today is going to be cold indeed with temps in the mid to high 30s, but I'm afraid it's just the beginning...since I think parts of the area won't even escape the 20s tomorrow! Fortunately, however, you're getting a short post today because there really aren't any big storms in sight, in fact the best chance for accumulating snow in the near future appears to be coming on 11/26- the day before thanksgiving- which would cause an absolute nightmare for travelers, or I wouldn't even mention it 8 days out.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- November 18, 1929- An amazingly strange event occurs when an earthquake occurs off the coast of Newfoundland, which causes an undersea landslide, which causes a tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean. It causes some fatalities in Newfoundland, and the tsunami is felt as far away as Portugal and South Carolina!
Well, today is going to be cold indeed with temps in the mid to high 30s, but I'm afraid it's just the beginning...since I think parts of the area won't even escape the 20s tomorrow! Fortunately, however, you're getting a short post today because there really aren't any big storms in sight, in fact the best chance for accumulating snow in the near future appears to be coming on 11/26- the day before thanksgiving- which would cause an absolute nightmare for travelers, or I wouldn't even mention it 8 days out.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- November 18, 1929- An amazingly strange event occurs when an earthquake occurs off the coast of Newfoundland, which causes an undersea landslide, which causes a tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean. It causes some fatalities in Newfoundland, and the tsunami is felt as far away as Portugal and South Carolina!
Monday, November 17, 2014
11/17- STORM WARNING
Good Monday everyone-
Today is going to be a truly miserable day- the worst possible day, quite honestly. Not only are temperatures going to be in the low 40s or high 30s, but it is going to pour pretty much all day. In fact, 1-2" of rain are very possible as a storm system essentially passes directly over our heads this morning. For most of our area, it was rain the entire time, though northern Hartford County, for example, could have a few icy patches, but there are no school delays in this area. Thus, the storm warning will remain in place until 5 PM this evening. Beyond today, however, while it will be dry, it will simply be really, really cold. We may not even hit the freezing point on Wednesday...so now let's look at the 7-day!
Today- (Steve's clunker of the year!)- Pouring rain and temps in the low-40s or high 30s. One to two inches of rain possible. YIKES!
Tomorrow- Clearing but cold. Highs in the high 30s.
Wednesday- Absolutely frigid. Highs in the high 20s and low 30s.
Thursday, Friday, & Saturday- More pleasant, with sunny conditions and highs near 40.
Sunday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Much better- sunny skies and temps near 50!
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. 13 days until the end of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
Today in weather history- November 17, 2013- An EF4 tornado hits Washington, IL, killing 8 people. In a odd event, a different severe thunderstorm suspends the Chicago Bears home game as the team evacuated the stands for two hours (highly unusual since the NFL will literally play through almost anything).
Today is going to be a truly miserable day- the worst possible day, quite honestly. Not only are temperatures going to be in the low 40s or high 30s, but it is going to pour pretty much all day. In fact, 1-2" of rain are very possible as a storm system essentially passes directly over our heads this morning. For most of our area, it was rain the entire time, though northern Hartford County, for example, could have a few icy patches, but there are no school delays in this area. Thus, the storm warning will remain in place until 5 PM this evening. Beyond today, however, while it will be dry, it will simply be really, really cold. We may not even hit the freezing point on Wednesday...so now let's look at the 7-day!
Today- (Steve's clunker of the year!)- Pouring rain and temps in the low-40s or high 30s. One to two inches of rain possible. YIKES!
Tomorrow- Clearing but cold. Highs in the high 30s.
Wednesday- Absolutely frigid. Highs in the high 20s and low 30s.
Thursday, Friday, & Saturday- More pleasant, with sunny conditions and highs near 40.
Sunday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Much better- sunny skies and temps near 50!
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. 13 days until the end of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
Today in weather history- November 17, 2013- An EF4 tornado hits Washington, IL, killing 8 people. In a odd event, a different severe thunderstorm suspends the Chicago Bears home game as the team evacuated the stands for two hours (highly unusual since the NFL will literally play through almost anything).
Sunday, November 16, 2014
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN FAIRFIELD
Hello everyone- this is the STORM WATCH Sunday update.
Unfortunately, the time has come for me to change the STORM WATCH to a STORM WARNING. When this happens, I'll update about every 5 hours during a storm, and be ready for changes in events. Tonight and tomorrow are the key days here. The weather deteriorates overnight tonight, starting as a wintry mix. Unfortunately, the conditions may be just right for the precip to hang around as the dreaded freezing rain tonight...and there therefore is a 35-40% chance of a school delay tomorrow morning north of about exit 9. Anything further south will likely be all rain. Once that clears, anywhere between 1 and 2 inches of rain are possible, and thus the storm warning is necessary. I'll be watching!
Unfortunately, the time has come for me to change the STORM WATCH to a STORM WARNING. When this happens, I'll update about every 5 hours during a storm, and be ready for changes in events. Tonight and tomorrow are the key days here. The weather deteriorates overnight tonight, starting as a wintry mix. Unfortunately, the conditions may be just right for the precip to hang around as the dreaded freezing rain tonight...and there therefore is a 35-40% chance of a school delay tomorrow morning north of about exit 9. Anything further south will likely be all rain. Once that clears, anywhere between 1 and 2 inches of rain are possible, and thus the storm warning is necessary. I'll be watching!
Friday, November 14, 2014
STORM WATCH UPDATE
Alright- it seems the verdict is in for Monday
And it's rain. The bottom line is that there is likely to be a significant rainstorm on Monday. Sure, there may be some mixing in the overnight hours, but it shouldn't be a big deal for anybody. It could certainly have been worse...so we can take a sigh of relief that it isn't a full snowstorm. The other ideas for the next week remain icy cold weather. It seems we finally turn off the nor'easter machine for a week or so, but it appears that a massive storm could be very close by very near thanksgiving. In fact, the GFS is forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Wednesday before thanksgiving. There is obviously tons of time for that to change, but can you imagine what a nightmare that would be for traveling? I think that most people would rather have the storm, if there has to be one, to be on turkey day itself (including me, quite honestly).
My computer is being much nicer to me now so...
A delayed "Today in weather history" for you- November 14, 1999- Tropical Storm Lenny forms in the Caribbean, and begins it's track...eastward. Lenny would rapidly intensify to a 155mph category 4 storm, just one mph shy of being the first November cat 5. Ultimately, 17 people are killed by the storm and $686 million in damage is caused by the storm. The name would be retired and replaced with "Lee" in 2005, which was used for a weak tropical storm that year, and used again in 2011, which hit Louisiana and caused massive flooding and over a billion dollars in damage.
And it's rain. The bottom line is that there is likely to be a significant rainstorm on Monday. Sure, there may be some mixing in the overnight hours, but it shouldn't be a big deal for anybody. It could certainly have been worse...so we can take a sigh of relief that it isn't a full snowstorm. The other ideas for the next week remain icy cold weather. It seems we finally turn off the nor'easter machine for a week or so, but it appears that a massive storm could be very close by very near thanksgiving. In fact, the GFS is forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Wednesday before thanksgiving. There is obviously tons of time for that to change, but can you imagine what a nightmare that would be for traveling? I think that most people would rather have the storm, if there has to be one, to be on turkey day itself (including me, quite honestly).
My computer is being much nicer to me now so...
A delayed "Today in weather history" for you- November 14, 1999- Tropical Storm Lenny forms in the Caribbean, and begins it's track...eastward. Lenny would rapidly intensify to a 155mph category 4 storm, just one mph shy of being the first November cat 5. Ultimately, 17 people are killed by the storm and $686 million in damage is caused by the storm. The name would be retired and replaced with "Lee" in 2005, which was used for a weak tropical storm that year, and used again in 2011, which hit Louisiana and caused massive flooding and over a billion dollars in damage.
11/14- Getting even colder...
Happy Friday everyone- we made it!
Today is going to be rather chilly. In fact, I doubt temps escape the 30s today- but at least there will not be any significant precipitation. The weekend will not be anything bad at all- just a tad chilly. Highs are likely to be in the high 30s or low 40s both days. The verdict appears to be in for Monday as mostly if not entirely rain- which should annoy the majority of my readers- sorry! After that, there are places on Wednesday that may even struggle to reach the freezing mark, and the end of the week includes a close call from a storm. Note that the STORM WATCH remains because the nor'easter is producing enough rain to warrant it. Thus, I'll update again tonight, but we shall see if the GFS goes colder again like it did last time.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No tropical development is likely anytime soon.
Today in weather history- My computer is not being nice to me right now- I'll try to have this feature in my evening post.
Today is going to be rather chilly. In fact, I doubt temps escape the 30s today- but at least there will not be any significant precipitation. The weekend will not be anything bad at all- just a tad chilly. Highs are likely to be in the high 30s or low 40s both days. The verdict appears to be in for Monday as mostly if not entirely rain- which should annoy the majority of my readers- sorry! After that, there are places on Wednesday that may even struggle to reach the freezing mark, and the end of the week includes a close call from a storm. Note that the STORM WATCH remains because the nor'easter is producing enough rain to warrant it. Thus, I'll update again tonight, but we shall see if the GFS goes colder again like it did last time.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No tropical development is likely anytime soon.
Today in weather history- My computer is not being nice to me right now- I'll try to have this feature in my evening post.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
STORM WATCH UPDATE
Good evening everyone-
Well, the snow is here. The GFS model tonight has come in moist (2-4" statewide), but quite frankly I think that's too moist. At my house on the Wallingford/North Haven line, we had a few showers turn into a wet snowfall around 8 this evening. I see no reason to change my forecast of nothing to two inches at the shore and one to three inches inland. Now onto Monday's event, which continues to be a very complex battle between the two major models with the GFS showing mainly wintry precip and the Euro showing all rain. The bottom line is, though, that both models are forecasting a significant storm of some kind, thus the storm watch shall remain another day. Feel free to submit snowfall totals in the comments if you choose! Hopefully we get some solid numbers tonight. Best of luck to everyone- let it snow!
Well, the snow is here. The GFS model tonight has come in moist (2-4" statewide), but quite frankly I think that's too moist. At my house on the Wallingford/North Haven line, we had a few showers turn into a wet snowfall around 8 this evening. I see no reason to change my forecast of nothing to two inches at the shore and one to three inches inland. Now onto Monday's event, which continues to be a very complex battle between the two major models with the GFS showing mainly wintry precip and the Euro showing all rain. The bottom line is, though, that both models are forecasting a significant storm of some kind, thus the storm watch shall remain another day. Feel free to submit snowfall totals in the comments if you choose! Hopefully we get some solid numbers tonight. Best of luck to everyone- let it snow!
11/13- Let it snow, let it snow!
Good Thursday all-
Well today is the day that snow lovers have been waiting for for some 5 months- it's our first accumulating snow of 2014-15! Tonight will be quite interesting for most areas here. The models are now indicating a brief burst of moderate to even heavy snow later this evening. In fact- it's enough for me to issue my first snowfall and school impact prediction of the year. Here's how this will work this year:
Shoreline: Nothing to 1" of snow, no school impacts are likely since there may be a mix with rain. Subject to change if GFS computer model is correct.
Inland (I-91's exit 10 and north): The temps will be cold enough for all snow. 1-3" of snow is likely, and there will likely be some 90-minute delays in this region, depending on how late the snow stops in the morning. There is little risk of closures, since the storm will end early tomorrow.
There is a 40% chance of your district having a 90-minute delay north of exit 10
Anyway, the weekend looks dry, but then we get into the STORM WATCH time frame of Monday, and the GFS interestingly reverted back to a snowstorm last night. I did say that variations in track were likely, and there you go. I think that, for now, Importantly the in-between of the two is ice, but obviously the odds are literally 33-33-33 right now of all 3 kinds of precip, so let's not say anything. It is worth noting, of course, that if it's all snow it would be a very significant snowstorm, so I'll see what happens with the models today. We are not far from having a better idea on this, but I certainly will update over the weekend since we are under a storm watch.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- November 13, 1881- In Dry Pond, GA, hailstones from a severe storm on the 8th are still visible on this date. This is incredibly bizarre for an area that far south, and even in general since storms need at least some warm air to fuel themselves.
Well today is the day that snow lovers have been waiting for for some 5 months- it's our first accumulating snow of 2014-15! Tonight will be quite interesting for most areas here. The models are now indicating a brief burst of moderate to even heavy snow later this evening. In fact- it's enough for me to issue my first snowfall and school impact prediction of the year. Here's how this will work this year:
Shoreline: Nothing to 1" of snow, no school impacts are likely since there may be a mix with rain. Subject to change if GFS computer model is correct.
Inland (I-91's exit 10 and north): The temps will be cold enough for all snow. 1-3" of snow is likely, and there will likely be some 90-minute delays in this region, depending on how late the snow stops in the morning. There is little risk of closures, since the storm will end early tomorrow.
There is a 40% chance of your district having a 90-minute delay north of exit 10
Anyway, the weekend looks dry, but then we get into the STORM WATCH time frame of Monday, and the GFS interestingly reverted back to a snowstorm last night. I did say that variations in track were likely, and there you go. I think that, for now, Importantly the in-between of the two is ice, but obviously the odds are literally 33-33-33 right now of all 3 kinds of precip, so let's not say anything. It is worth noting, of course, that if it's all snow it would be a very significant snowstorm, so I'll see what happens with the models today. We are not far from having a better idea on this, but I certainly will update over the weekend since we are under a storm watch.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- November 13, 1881- In Dry Pond, GA, hailstones from a severe storm on the 8th are still visible on this date. This is incredibly bizarre for an area that far south, and even in general since storms need at least some warm air to fuel themselves.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
STORM WATCH UPDATE
Hello everyone-
Well, today's computer model runs are in and, if you like snow, it hasn't gone well for you. For now, all major computer models are indicating a storm track pretty much right over our head, which would deliver us a brief burst of snow at the onset before a torrential rainstorm with the temps at around 38, which would be absolutely miserable indeed. Despite that, the rain itself would have sufficient totals to merit a storm advisory of its' own right, so the storm watch shall remain for the time being. It also appears that tomorrow night's flurries are trying to be a bit more than that, and I may have to give my first accumulation and school impacts map tomorrow morning. We'll see- but I quite honestly can't see it being too much of an accumulation. It's one of those deals where if everything goes absolutely, 100% perfect (the top 10% of possibilities), it would still only be a 3-5, with locally 6" in the higher elevations deal. My early call for tomorrow night is only a coating to 2", with some in the higher elevations getting 3". This is much more than I was expecting at noon, however, so it could be rather interesting to see the overnight model runs tonight.
Talk to you all in the morning!!!
Well, today's computer model runs are in and, if you like snow, it hasn't gone well for you. For now, all major computer models are indicating a storm track pretty much right over our head, which would deliver us a brief burst of snow at the onset before a torrential rainstorm with the temps at around 38, which would be absolutely miserable indeed. Despite that, the rain itself would have sufficient totals to merit a storm advisory of its' own right, so the storm watch shall remain for the time being. It also appears that tomorrow night's flurries are trying to be a bit more than that, and I may have to give my first accumulation and school impacts map tomorrow morning. We'll see- but I quite honestly can't see it being too much of an accumulation. It's one of those deals where if everything goes absolutely, 100% perfect (the top 10% of possibilities), it would still only be a 3-5, with locally 6" in the higher elevations deal. My early call for tomorrow night is only a coating to 2", with some in the higher elevations getting 3". This is much more than I was expecting at noon, however, so it could be rather interesting to see the overnight model runs tonight.
Talk to you all in the morning!!!
11/12- The last good day of the year?
Good Wednesday all-
I'll start by talking about the nor'easter that was scheduled for Sunday night and Monday. It now appears that the threat is more Monday into Tuesday, since the models have delayed its' arrival by a day or so. Thus, I will oblige them by changing the storm watch to noon Monday to noon Tuesday. Otherwise, we pretty much have the same story as last night. The Euro is far enough inland to give us nothing but a torrential downpour of rain, while the GFS is taking a snow track (but recently has been almost too far out to sea to give us much of anything). Since the compromise solution would be pretty much right over us, or just to our southeast (the perfect snow track), the storm watch will remain- as well as the fact that the Euro track may give us 2+" of rain in its' own right. It's interesting that the two models are literally trending in completely opposite directions. I can't tell you how frustrating that is, though not unexpected this far out. Anyway, I hope everyone gets out and enjoys today's mostly cloudy skies and temps in the high 50s or low 60s, since we may not see these temps again this year. Next week, if you can believe it, looks much colder than this week, and some days we won't reach 40! The only confidence we have in any precipitation, at the moment, is tomorrow night into Friday, when some light snow is likely for pretty much everybody as a nor'easter goes far out to sea to our southeast, sparing us any significant impacts. Also, note that a DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued until 9 AM this morning.
In the Atlantic and Pacific- No development anytime soon. The seasons here end in 18 days, on November 30.
Today in weather history- November 12, 1987- A nor'easter deposits a large early season snowfall on New England. Snowfall totals were impressive for so early in the season, with as much as 14" of snow falling in Plymouth County, MA. Providence, RI sets the monthly 24-hour record by recording 9.7" of the white stuff.
I'll start by talking about the nor'easter that was scheduled for Sunday night and Monday. It now appears that the threat is more Monday into Tuesday, since the models have delayed its' arrival by a day or so. Thus, I will oblige them by changing the storm watch to noon Monday to noon Tuesday. Otherwise, we pretty much have the same story as last night. The Euro is far enough inland to give us nothing but a torrential downpour of rain, while the GFS is taking a snow track (but recently has been almost too far out to sea to give us much of anything). Since the compromise solution would be pretty much right over us, or just to our southeast (the perfect snow track), the storm watch will remain- as well as the fact that the Euro track may give us 2+" of rain in its' own right. It's interesting that the two models are literally trending in completely opposite directions. I can't tell you how frustrating that is, though not unexpected this far out. Anyway, I hope everyone gets out and enjoys today's mostly cloudy skies and temps in the high 50s or low 60s, since we may not see these temps again this year. Next week, if you can believe it, looks much colder than this week, and some days we won't reach 40! The only confidence we have in any precipitation, at the moment, is tomorrow night into Friday, when some light snow is likely for pretty much everybody as a nor'easter goes far out to sea to our southeast, sparing us any significant impacts. Also, note that a DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued until 9 AM this morning.
In the Atlantic and Pacific- No development anytime soon. The seasons here end in 18 days, on November 30.
Today in weather history- November 12, 1987- A nor'easter deposits a large early season snowfall on New England. Snowfall totals were impressive for so early in the season, with as much as 14" of snow falling in Plymouth County, MA. Providence, RI sets the monthly 24-hour record by recording 9.7" of the white stuff.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
STORM ALERT update
Good evening everyone-
There is truly very little change in the situation for Sunday night. Sure, the GFS is a bit less robust tonight than it was this morning, but it's one of the more unreliable model runs. That, of course, is unsurprising given that we are still 5 days out, and forecasts can and will change in the coming days. My breakdown of odds are below-
Chances of any snow at all- 90%
Chance of 1+" of accumulation- 50%
Chance of 3+" of accumulation- 30%
Chance of 6+" of accumulation- 10%.
Thus, the storm watch will remain in effect this evening, since there is still a 20% chance of 3+", and I'd have given very similar odds to these in the morning. Essentially, consider today a wash- and I'll have an update tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed your day off!
There is truly very little change in the situation for Sunday night. Sure, the GFS is a bit less robust tonight than it was this morning, but it's one of the more unreliable model runs. That, of course, is unsurprising given that we are still 5 days out, and forecasts can and will change in the coming days. My breakdown of odds are below-
Chances of any snow at all- 90%
Chance of 1+" of accumulation- 50%
Chance of 3+" of accumulation- 30%
Chance of 6+" of accumulation- 10%.
Thus, the storm watch will remain in effect this evening, since there is still a 20% chance of 3+", and I'd have given very similar odds to these in the morning. Essentially, consider today a wash- and I'll have an update tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed your day off!
11/11- STORM WATCH ISSUED
Good Tuesday all- Happy Veteran's Day- thanks to all vets for their service to our country.
Unfortunately for snow-haters, the threat of a major nor'easter is looking possible Sunday night into Monday...depending on what happens with the track. Thus, there is a greater than 20% chance of 3+ inches of snow, or 2+ inches of rain, so a storm watch has been issued for all areas from 3 PM Sunday to noon Monday. The exact details are far from certain this far out, however, so that's all I can really say. The other interesting story is that I do think most areas see some flakes Friday morning, which won't accumulate but will still give us the first snow in most locations (Not all- I had mine in Wallingford on 11/1). Somehow, those waiting for a warmup will have to wait, because next week actually looks colder than this week! Yikes! I'll have more on the impending storm Sunday night later this evening.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. The brief development window that the low off Mexico had has closed.
Today in weather history- November 11, 1911- One of the more incredible events in meteorological history occurs across the central US. Kansas City, MO, had a morning high of 76, and then...it was snowing hard by mid-afternoon. Another crazy but true event- an F4 tornado hits Janesville, IL, killing 9 people...and then the survivors have to dig out when the rainstorm changes into a blizzard and buries all the damage!
Unfortunately for snow-haters, the threat of a major nor'easter is looking possible Sunday night into Monday...depending on what happens with the track. Thus, there is a greater than 20% chance of 3+ inches of snow, or 2+ inches of rain, so a storm watch has been issued for all areas from 3 PM Sunday to noon Monday. The exact details are far from certain this far out, however, so that's all I can really say. The other interesting story is that I do think most areas see some flakes Friday morning, which won't accumulate but will still give us the first snow in most locations (Not all- I had mine in Wallingford on 11/1). Somehow, those waiting for a warmup will have to wait, because next week actually looks colder than this week! Yikes! I'll have more on the impending storm Sunday night later this evening.
In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. The brief development window that the low off Mexico had has closed.
Today in weather history- November 11, 1911- One of the more incredible events in meteorological history occurs across the central US. Kansas City, MO, had a morning high of 76, and then...it was snowing hard by mid-afternoon. Another crazy but true event- an F4 tornado hits Janesville, IL, killing 9 people...and then the survivors have to dig out when the rainstorm changes into a blizzard and buries all the damage!
Monday, November 10, 2014
11/10- Here comes the freezer
Good Monday all-
Welcome to a new week of weather! I'll begin with the forecast
Today: Mostly Sunny, highs in the low to mid 50s
Tomorrow (Steve's pick of the week): Partly cloudy, highs near 60!!
Wednesday: A low chance (20-30%) of scattered showers. Highs in the low 50s.
Thursday: Sunny but way colder. Highs in the low 40s
Friday (Steve's clunker of the week): A wintry mix in the morning, followed by frigid temperatures. Highs in the high 30s!
Saturday: Sunny with highs near 40.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, highs around 45
Essentially, the story of this week is the cold, and the passing by of several nor'easters just far enough to our southeast that we'll get some clouds, but not much else of anything. Tomorrow is going to be beautiful, but it's probably the last time we get anywhere near that number until spring. We then get plunged into the arctic blast that has been hyped so much in the news this week (AND IT ISN'T THE POLAR VORTEX!). A pair of nor'easters then misses Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, the arctic plunge will drop lows to the low 20s, or upper teens on Thursday night! Otherwise, a huge storm is possible next Monday, but it lies just outside my 7 day forecast. The threat, however, of an impactful storm is high enough to, should current information remain where it is, issue a storm watch on Wednesday.
In the Atlantic- Development is not expected anytime soon. It's entirely possible that the season is over, as conditions are unfavorable pretty much everywhere.
In the Pacific- A tropical depression may form off the coast of Mexico today, but it won't be strong and it won't survive long as it will hit Mexico and enter unfavorable conditions.
Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A powerful cold front leads to a very late-season severe outbreak which ultimately spawns an F4 tornado in Van Wert County, Ohio. On the same day, a mile-wide tornado kills 12 people in Mossy Grove, TN.
Welcome to a new week of weather! I'll begin with the forecast
Today: Mostly Sunny, highs in the low to mid 50s
Tomorrow (Steve's pick of the week): Partly cloudy, highs near 60!!
Wednesday: A low chance (20-30%) of scattered showers. Highs in the low 50s.
Thursday: Sunny but way colder. Highs in the low 40s
Friday (Steve's clunker of the week): A wintry mix in the morning, followed by frigid temperatures. Highs in the high 30s!
Saturday: Sunny with highs near 40.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, highs around 45
Essentially, the story of this week is the cold, and the passing by of several nor'easters just far enough to our southeast that we'll get some clouds, but not much else of anything. Tomorrow is going to be beautiful, but it's probably the last time we get anywhere near that number until spring. We then get plunged into the arctic blast that has been hyped so much in the news this week (AND IT ISN'T THE POLAR VORTEX!). A pair of nor'easters then misses Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, the arctic plunge will drop lows to the low 20s, or upper teens on Thursday night! Otherwise, a huge storm is possible next Monday, but it lies just outside my 7 day forecast. The threat, however, of an impactful storm is high enough to, should current information remain where it is, issue a storm watch on Wednesday.
In the Atlantic- Development is not expected anytime soon. It's entirely possible that the season is over, as conditions are unfavorable pretty much everywhere.
In the Pacific- A tropical depression may form off the coast of Mexico today, but it won't be strong and it won't survive long as it will hit Mexico and enter unfavorable conditions.
Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A powerful cold front leads to a very late-season severe outbreak which ultimately spawns an F4 tornado in Van Wert County, Ohio. On the same day, a mile-wide tornado kills 12 people in Mossy Grove, TN.
Friday, November 7, 2014
11/7- Nice weekend, but here comes the cold!
Happy Friday everyone- we made it!!
Today is going to be a predominantly cloudy day, as yesterday's storm moves out to the northeast (dumping northern Maine with several inches of snow in the process). This cloud cover, though, kept the lows from dropping too far, but will also prevent highs from getting out of the low 50s today. The two weekend days look extremely similar with predominantly sunny skies and temperatures in the high 40s/low 50s range. An early look at next week shows us having a close encounter with a storm system midweek, but if it produces precipitation here, it'll be rain. After that, the weather will likely turn unbelievably cold for mid-November, and many areas (if not most) will not get out of the 30s by Thursday, perhaps. To make matters worse (and this is very early speculation here), we could be looking at overnight lows in the high teens pretty much statewide. On the positive note, the high pressure required to keep cold air of this magnitude in place will likely preclude any storm chance over the region.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- A low off the Mexican coast, believe it or not, is probably going to become Tropical Storm Winnie in the next week or so, climbing this season even higher up the all time most active list.
Today in weather history- November 7, 2012- An early season nor'easter slams Southern New England with as much as a foot of snow and gusty wind. The storm comes just a week after Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey, and it causes snow all the way down to the Jersey coast, significantly delaying recovery efforts. This is also the first storm ever named by the Weather Channel, as they dubbed it "Winter Storm Athena".
Thursday, November 6, 2014
11/6- Rain
Good Thursday all-
Today is going to be wet...and I mean really wet, I'm afraid. All areas appear as though they'll pick up lots of rain this evening, and I suspect an inch or so of rain is possible for many areas throughout our region as a coastal storm develops far too close to the shore to give us any frozen precip. Beyond this storm, it appears that we'll warm things up for a bit next week, but enjoy it while it lasts. Although no precipitation is likely for the next several days after today, don't hold your breath on it holding, because the next few weeks look very very cold, with a good possibility of a stormy pattern developing. As always, though, the forecast beyond a week is far too early to call, so don't worry too much about it.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.
In the Pacific- A low has developed several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear pretty favorable for development (considering it's early November). The next name on the Pacific is Winnie. It is important to note a few things here. In the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic, there are names starting with X, Y, and Z. Thus, there are still four names left before they have to resort to using the Greek alphabet, which has only happened in the Atlantic basin (in 2005). Additionally, if there is one more hurricane in the Pacific, we'll break the all time record for the most hurricanes ever recorded in a single season in the East Pacific. Yikes! What a season it has been for them.
Today in weather history- November 6, 2005- A bizarre late season F3 tornado hits north Kentucky and southern Indiana. The storm passes directly over a mobile home park, which is asking for disaster, and this was no exception as 20 are killed in the mobile home park, in addition to 4 elsewhere, and nearly 240 are injured.
Today is going to be wet...and I mean really wet, I'm afraid. All areas appear as though they'll pick up lots of rain this evening, and I suspect an inch or so of rain is possible for many areas throughout our region as a coastal storm develops far too close to the shore to give us any frozen precip. Beyond this storm, it appears that we'll warm things up for a bit next week, but enjoy it while it lasts. Although no precipitation is likely for the next several days after today, don't hold your breath on it holding, because the next few weeks look very very cold, with a good possibility of a stormy pattern developing. As always, though, the forecast beyond a week is far too early to call, so don't worry too much about it.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.
In the Pacific- A low has developed several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear pretty favorable for development (considering it's early November). The next name on the Pacific is Winnie. It is important to note a few things here. In the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic, there are names starting with X, Y, and Z. Thus, there are still four names left before they have to resort to using the Greek alphabet, which has only happened in the Atlantic basin (in 2005). Additionally, if there is one more hurricane in the Pacific, we'll break the all time record for the most hurricanes ever recorded in a single season in the East Pacific. Yikes! What a season it has been for them.
Today in weather history- November 6, 2005- A bizarre late season F3 tornado hits north Kentucky and southern Indiana. The storm passes directly over a mobile home park, which is asking for disaster, and this was no exception as 20 are killed in the mobile home park, in addition to 4 elsewhere, and nearly 240 are injured.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
11/5- Here comes the rain...
Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be a very nice day, with temps in the mid 60s, albeit with increasing clouds the longer we go through the afternoon. I'm afraid to say, however, that tomorrow is a total washout with pouring rain and decreasing temperatures as a cold front moves through the region. Saturday looks absolutely frigid, and most areas won't even get near 50, and some cooler spots may be trapped in the upper 30s in the Litchfield hills. Otherwise, normal weather prevails, and there is no precipitation threat anytime soon after tomorrow, so it'll be a rather boring week of weather for me, sadly, but very good news for the majority of you.
In the Atlantic- There is a low that has a minuscule chance of become Subtropical Storm Isaiah, but I would be very surprised, and it would have to be today or tomorrow, decreasing the odds further.
In the Pacific- Vance has weakened to a tropical depression just before landfall in Mexico, but this is going to join up with the system that is going to dump us with the heavy rain tomorrow, increasing the amount we'll get here in New England.
Today in weather history- November 5, 1894- A blizzard on Election Day crushes New England, dropping a foot of snow in the area and producing 60 mph winds in Rhode Island.
Today is going to be a very nice day, with temps in the mid 60s, albeit with increasing clouds the longer we go through the afternoon. I'm afraid to say, however, that tomorrow is a total washout with pouring rain and decreasing temperatures as a cold front moves through the region. Saturday looks absolutely frigid, and most areas won't even get near 50, and some cooler spots may be trapped in the upper 30s in the Litchfield hills. Otherwise, normal weather prevails, and there is no precipitation threat anytime soon after tomorrow, so it'll be a rather boring week of weather for me, sadly, but very good news for the majority of you.
In the Atlantic- There is a low that has a minuscule chance of become Subtropical Storm Isaiah, but I would be very surprised, and it would have to be today or tomorrow, decreasing the odds further.
In the Pacific- Vance has weakened to a tropical depression just before landfall in Mexico, but this is going to join up with the system that is going to dump us with the heavy rain tomorrow, increasing the amount we'll get here in New England.
Today in weather history- November 5, 1894- A blizzard on Election Day crushes New England, dropping a foot of snow in the area and producing 60 mph winds in Rhode Island.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
11/4- Vote!
Good Tuesday everyone!
Today is going to be very nice considering it's early November. Temps will be in the high 50s and sunshine will prevail, though there will be some clouds on and off today. However, there are some changes in the forecast, but I think you'll actually find it agreeable. The washout for Friday is now on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, so I certainly think we'll still get an inch or two of rain, but at a time that won't nearly be as impactful. The one other change in the forecast from yesterday is that it now appears there will be some rain on Sunday, and there is a chance of a washout. The nor'easter threat for early next week has vanished overnight.
In the Atlantic- No development will happen anytime soon.
In the Pacific- Hurricane Vance and its' 105mph sustained winds are located 70 miles ESE of Soccoro Island, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coast of Mexico as Vance approaches the region tomorrow. Otherwise, no new development is likely
Today in weather history- My computer has been very temperamental the last few days, so please forgive me for omitting this section today. I hope it works better soon...
Today is going to be very nice considering it's early November. Temps will be in the high 50s and sunshine will prevail, though there will be some clouds on and off today. However, there are some changes in the forecast, but I think you'll actually find it agreeable. The washout for Friday is now on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, so I certainly think we'll still get an inch or two of rain, but at a time that won't nearly be as impactful. The one other change in the forecast from yesterday is that it now appears there will be some rain on Sunday, and there is a chance of a washout. The nor'easter threat for early next week has vanished overnight.
In the Atlantic- No development will happen anytime soon.
In the Pacific- Hurricane Vance and its' 105mph sustained winds are located 70 miles ESE of Soccoro Island, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coast of Mexico as Vance approaches the region tomorrow. Otherwise, no new development is likely
Today in weather history- My computer has been very temperamental the last few days, so please forgive me for omitting this section today. I hope it works better soon...
Monday, November 3, 2014
11/3- It's cold!
Good Monday all
Well, I had my first flakes Saturday night here in Wallingford, there were some flakes clearly visible on car windshields when I woke up yesterday morning. Anyway, let's talk about what this week has in store shall we? First, an overview...
Today- Mostly sunny, highs in the 50s
Tomorrow (election day), and Wednesday- Partly cloudy with highs in the low 60s!! Enjoy it!
Thursday- Increasing clouds with rain developing. Highs in the 50s
Friday- Pouring rain! The true clunker of the week. Highs in the 50s
Saturday- AM flurries or showers, but I think flurries more likely. Highs in the high 40s/low 50s
Sunday- Partly cloudy, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.
Alright, so now an explanation. The next few days look to be very nice due to a pretty nice change in the jet stream to our north, allowing that southern air to come up to find us. By Thursday, though, a low pressure system will pass north of the region, which actually keeps us warm, but it doesn't change a full day of heavy precipitation- it'll be rain instead of snow, though, until it may end as some flakes on Saturday morning. The next potential for significant snow appears to be a week from today.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- Category 2 Hurricane Vance, with its' 105mph winds, is located 505 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and it may impact the Mexican coast just south of the Baja later this week. With the formation of Vance, by the way, this becomes the third most active season on record in the Pacific basin.
Today in weather history- November 3, 1961- In what can only be described as a bizarre meteorological occurrence, since thunderstorms are formed by the heat of the day the majority of the time, but not always, a thunderstorm along a cold front in Casper, WY contains snow instead of rain.
Well, I had my first flakes Saturday night here in Wallingford, there were some flakes clearly visible on car windshields when I woke up yesterday morning. Anyway, let's talk about what this week has in store shall we? First, an overview...
Today- Mostly sunny, highs in the 50s
Tomorrow (election day), and Wednesday- Partly cloudy with highs in the low 60s!! Enjoy it!
Thursday- Increasing clouds with rain developing. Highs in the 50s
Friday- Pouring rain! The true clunker of the week. Highs in the 50s
Saturday- AM flurries or showers, but I think flurries more likely. Highs in the high 40s/low 50s
Sunday- Partly cloudy, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.
Alright, so now an explanation. The next few days look to be very nice due to a pretty nice change in the jet stream to our north, allowing that southern air to come up to find us. By Thursday, though, a low pressure system will pass north of the region, which actually keeps us warm, but it doesn't change a full day of heavy precipitation- it'll be rain instead of snow, though, until it may end as some flakes on Saturday morning. The next potential for significant snow appears to be a week from today.
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- Category 2 Hurricane Vance, with its' 105mph winds, is located 505 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and it may impact the Mexican coast just south of the Baja later this week. With the formation of Vance, by the way, this becomes the third most active season on record in the Pacific basin.
Today in weather history- November 3, 1961- In what can only be described as a bizarre meteorological occurrence, since thunderstorms are formed by the heat of the day the majority of the time, but not always, a thunderstorm along a cold front in Casper, WY contains snow instead of rain.
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