11/25- STORM WARNING- Major nor'easter on the way

Good Tuesday all-

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Litchfield county, and the WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to the shoreline in New Haven and Fairfield counties. The computer models actually trended a bit snowier last night, but there are still a significant number saying 2-5"...and a significant number saying 12-20". Thus, I'll stick in the middle with 5-10" and go from there. This is among the most complex storms to predict as a forecaster. There is going to be an area where wintry mix cuts down the snow totals by over half...while the town immediately to their north and west could get two or even three times as much as the surrounding areas. It really is all about the timing of the cold air. If this was January, it would be 1-2 feet for everyone...but it isn't, so those totals should be relegated to just NW of the rain/snow line. I think someone in New England will receive 18", but whether that's over us, in the Berkshires, or near Boston? Anybody's guess, quite honestly. For example, NOAA gives me in Wallingford a 15% chance of barely getting an inch...and a 15% chance of picking up well over a foot. The volatility of snowfall forecasts with this storm is incredible...and I am sure I'll have different totals later tonight. There is a chance I come back tonight and say "hardly anything", but there is also a chance I say "everyone's getting a foot or more", as well as "looks like somewhere in between". Each of these has a roughly 30% chance of happening...but I think the snowier solution is more likely. The odds are broken down below:

North of I-91's exit 9

2+"- 100%

4+"- 75%

6+"- 50/50

8+"- 45%

1 foot +- 25%

South of that

2"- 80%

4"- 50/50

6"- 40%

8"- 25%

1 foot + - 10%

I HATE not being able to be more specific especially being less than a day out, but there is a truly equal chance of anywhere between 2 and 18 inches. This is the most annoying forecast I've had in recent memory. Be prepared to be disappointed with little snow, or have three times as much snow as some channels are forecasting. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.

Mid-day model runs today will be key. I'll update around 6 tonight for final predictions. Enjoy!