Good Tuesday all-
Well, on this day last year, we picked up 4" of snow unexpectedly, which snarled up the roads on the 91 corridor. Hamden, Wallingford, New Haven, and Meriden were especially hard hit. While that won't happen this year, snow is still likely to fall this afternoon and especially tonight...and as much as 1-2" is possible in the areas that are under the heavier bands. Unfortunately, that doesn't mark the end of the snow threats either.
The end of the week forecast is pretty much identical as it was yesterday. Saturday's storm appears to be rain at the moment, as the GFS has begun caving to the Euro, but that is not set in stone, so I'll leave the STORM WATCH for now, but it may well be dropped tomorrow if the model trends hold.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Monday, March 30, 2015
3/30- STORM WATCH- Small, medium, large?
Good Monday all-
Well, this week is the tale of 4 storms, each presenting its' own forecast challenges, and of increasing significance through the week. Today's 'storm' is not that significant, but the roads may take a bit of a hit this morning as a light to occasionally moderate snow falls this morning. No accumulation is expected, but the roads may be a tad compromised though it shouldn't really be too big of a deal.
Next, we focus on tomorrow night. A clipper system (actually a rather strong one), is likely to drop as much as 3" of snow on parts of CT (this would happen if you're unlucky enough to be under the heaviest band) as it intensifies off the coast. Note that this is the kind of path that can produce a few surprises, so let's see what happens. For now...I expect 0.5-3" of snow for all of CT.
Third is Thursday/Friday. A cold front will move through, dropping the temps like a rock...but also delivering a total washout on Friday. It's far too early for start times and rain accumulation amounts...but I'm keeping my eye on it.
Finally, Saturday- this is the one the STORM WATCH is for- the GFS model has been consistently developing a nor'easter offshore and putting out to the 40/70 benchmark (which would yield a nastily big snowstorm, especially for April- in a worst case scenario, 6"+ would be possible!) while the Euro has consistently been putting the storm to our west...which would be a 65 degree rainstorm...so the uncertainty is high. That said...even though there is probably only a 15-20% chance of receiving 4" of snow...I'm going to issue a storm watch due to the uncertainty and the absolutely dreadful timing on the day before Easter Sunday.
Note that, as incredible as it seems...62 days until the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Today in weather history- March 30, 1977- Hartford reaches 87, the all time record high for March. Needless to say, we haven't been even remotely close to that this year.
Well, this week is the tale of 4 storms, each presenting its' own forecast challenges, and of increasing significance through the week. Today's 'storm' is not that significant, but the roads may take a bit of a hit this morning as a light to occasionally moderate snow falls this morning. No accumulation is expected, but the roads may be a tad compromised though it shouldn't really be too big of a deal.
Next, we focus on tomorrow night. A clipper system (actually a rather strong one), is likely to drop as much as 3" of snow on parts of CT (this would happen if you're unlucky enough to be under the heaviest band) as it intensifies off the coast. Note that this is the kind of path that can produce a few surprises, so let's see what happens. For now...I expect 0.5-3" of snow for all of CT.
Third is Thursday/Friday. A cold front will move through, dropping the temps like a rock...but also delivering a total washout on Friday. It's far too early for start times and rain accumulation amounts...but I'm keeping my eye on it.
Finally, Saturday- this is the one the STORM WATCH is for- the GFS model has been consistently developing a nor'easter offshore and putting out to the 40/70 benchmark (which would yield a nastily big snowstorm, especially for April- in a worst case scenario, 6"+ would be possible!) while the Euro has consistently been putting the storm to our west...which would be a 65 degree rainstorm...so the uncertainty is high. That said...even though there is probably only a 15-20% chance of receiving 4" of snow...I'm going to issue a storm watch due to the uncertainty and the absolutely dreadful timing on the day before Easter Sunday.
Note that, as incredible as it seems...62 days until the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Today in weather history- March 30, 1977- Hartford reaches 87, the all time record high for March. Needless to say, we haven't been even remotely close to that this year.
Saturday, March 28, 2015
3/28- A light to moderate snowfall today
Good Saturday all-
I don't normally update on weekends, but an accumulating late-season snowfall means you get a post! Snow will be breaking out late this morning and it's going to snow most of the afternoon today, but it won't be particularly heavy...and the roads are unlikely to be too bad. That said...on grassy surfaces...some areas will receive 2" of snow. In fact...parts of Windham County could get as much as 4" (or for that matter, so could anyone else if the heavier band moves further east than currently forecasted). Someone today will likely be surprised, as is the nature with Norlun troughs. I can think of a few situations where numbers were completely off, both high and low. I'll explore some of these examples on Monday...but not today, as I don't want to throw focus off what will happen this afternoon.
I don't normally update on weekends, but an accumulating late-season snowfall means you get a post! Snow will be breaking out late this morning and it's going to snow most of the afternoon today, but it won't be particularly heavy...and the roads are unlikely to be too bad. That said...on grassy surfaces...some areas will receive 2" of snow. In fact...parts of Windham County could get as much as 4" (or for that matter, so could anyone else if the heavier band moves further east than currently forecasted). Someone today will likely be surprised, as is the nature with Norlun troughs. I can think of a few situations where numbers were completely off, both high and low. I'll explore some of these examples on Monday...but not today, as I don't want to throw focus off what will happen this afternoon.
Friday, March 27, 2015
3/27- Looks like snow tomorrow...and Monday
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-
The wintry mix we're experiencing through much of the state this morning will be moving out very soon, leaving us with a generally partly to mostly cloudy day today before we get into trouble with a storm tomorrow. A large nor'easter is going to miss us to the east, but a 'Norlun trough' is going to develop, meaning that we're going to get accumulating snow anyway. Exactly where this trough sets up is key. Away from the 75 or so miles that it hits...very little (1-2") is possible, but underneath the band, there could be as much as 3-5". It all depends on exactly where the area sets up...and it has equal chances of being over us...and being over Boston. At the moment, I'm more inclined to believe it would set up over us...so I'll forecast 1-4" of snow during the day tomorrow...with locally 5" in those areas stuck under the heavy band.
Sunday looks fine, but a minor (1-2") snowfall is possible on Monday with a clipper. Rain moves in for Wednesday, but the big weather story over the next 5 days is the threat of an Easter nor'easter, which could drop a late season monster snowfall for Connecticut...miss entirely...or produce heavy rain. At the moment...all of these possibilities are modeled in some...so naturally I've got no idea which of those 3 situations will play out. All we can do is watch.
Today in weather history- March 27, 1984- The US March record high temperature occurs as Cotulla, TX reaches 108 degrees. Needless to say, nobody in the US has been even remotely close to this temperature this month.
The wintry mix we're experiencing through much of the state this morning will be moving out very soon, leaving us with a generally partly to mostly cloudy day today before we get into trouble with a storm tomorrow. A large nor'easter is going to miss us to the east, but a 'Norlun trough' is going to develop, meaning that we're going to get accumulating snow anyway. Exactly where this trough sets up is key. Away from the 75 or so miles that it hits...very little (1-2") is possible, but underneath the band, there could be as much as 3-5". It all depends on exactly where the area sets up...and it has equal chances of being over us...and being over Boston. At the moment, I'm more inclined to believe it would set up over us...so I'll forecast 1-4" of snow during the day tomorrow...with locally 5" in those areas stuck under the heavy band.
Sunday looks fine, but a minor (1-2") snowfall is possible on Monday with a clipper. Rain moves in for Wednesday, but the big weather story over the next 5 days is the threat of an Easter nor'easter, which could drop a late season monster snowfall for Connecticut...miss entirely...or produce heavy rain. At the moment...all of these possibilities are modeled in some...so naturally I've got no idea which of those 3 situations will play out. All we can do is watch.
Today in weather history- March 27, 1984- The US March record high temperature occurs as Cotulla, TX reaches 108 degrees. Needless to say, nobody in the US has been even remotely close to this temperature this month.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
3/26- Looks like snow for Saturday...and storms today
Good Thursday all-
Unfortunately, the forecast for the next week is not exactly pleasant. Temps today is going to be about 60, but it's going to rain for a large portion of the day, and even thunderstorms are possible in the evening as the cold front moves through. Snow is possible in the morning tomorrow as the temps plummet, but whatever falls won't be heavy nor accumulate. Saturday, for the moment, appears like a norlun trough will develop...and throw back some snow in. For now, I expect 2-4" of accumulation at this time, primarily Saturday afternoon. Whatever falls, most will melt quickly due to the sun angle. The problem, however, is that more snow is possible Monday, and again next Wednesday. An early look at Easter as well indicates a nor'easter may be nearby...
My thoughts and prayers go out today to those effected by the tornadoes in Oklahoma last night, especially Tulsa and Moore.
Unfortunately, the forecast for the next week is not exactly pleasant. Temps today is going to be about 60, but it's going to rain for a large portion of the day, and even thunderstorms are possible in the evening as the cold front moves through. Snow is possible in the morning tomorrow as the temps plummet, but whatever falls won't be heavy nor accumulate. Saturday, for the moment, appears like a norlun trough will develop...and throw back some snow in. For now, I expect 2-4" of accumulation at this time, primarily Saturday afternoon. Whatever falls, most will melt quickly due to the sun angle. The problem, however, is that more snow is possible Monday, and again next Wednesday. An early look at Easter as well indicates a nor'easter may be nearby...
My thoughts and prayers go out today to those effected by the tornadoes in Oklahoma last night, especially Tulsa and Moore.
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
3/25- From soaker to snow
Good Wednesday all-
On a good note, today won't be nearly as cold as yesterday and Monday. That said...it won't exactly be warm either, as I expect temps in the mid 40s today. Unfortunately...just when you think it's getting better...a cold front drops the temps like a rock tomorrow night. To make matters worse, the front brings heavy rain with it tomorrow...but the temps may reach the upper 50s! The problem? By Friday morning, it will have transitioned to snow! No accumulation is likely.
Unfortunately, that is just the first of four snow chances in the next week. They don't look particularly severe but it's worth noting flakes could fly...
Saturday- Some models are indicating the development of a 'Norlun Trough' which could drop a few inches of snow during the day Saturday.
Monday and Wednesday- Two late-season clipper systems move through...which could drop several inches of snow if they come together properly. Two to four inches would seem reasonable at this time...but TONS can (and probably will) change between now and then. That said, there is probably only a 5-10% of 4" of snow...so no storm watch for now.
Today in weather history- March 25, 1843- A major nor'easter creates enough cold air for Mississippi to get 3" of snow...and New England to get as much as a foot. The jackpot winner this time was the Appalachians of east Tennessee near Pigeon Forge...which received as much as fifteen inches of accumulation.
On a good note, today won't be nearly as cold as yesterday and Monday. That said...it won't exactly be warm either, as I expect temps in the mid 40s today. Unfortunately...just when you think it's getting better...a cold front drops the temps like a rock tomorrow night. To make matters worse, the front brings heavy rain with it tomorrow...but the temps may reach the upper 50s! The problem? By Friday morning, it will have transitioned to snow! No accumulation is likely.
Unfortunately, that is just the first of four snow chances in the next week. They don't look particularly severe but it's worth noting flakes could fly...
Saturday- Some models are indicating the development of a 'Norlun Trough' which could drop a few inches of snow during the day Saturday.
Monday and Wednesday- Two late-season clipper systems move through...which could drop several inches of snow if they come together properly. Two to four inches would seem reasonable at this time...but TONS can (and probably will) change between now and then. That said, there is probably only a 5-10% of 4" of snow...so no storm watch for now.
Today in weather history- March 25, 1843- A major nor'easter creates enough cold air for Mississippi to get 3" of snow...and New England to get as much as a foot. The jackpot winner this time was the Appalachians of east Tennessee near Pigeon Forge...which received as much as fifteen inches of accumulation.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
3/24- Not much to say
Good Tuesday all-
Well, I'm not going to bore you by typing, essentially, exactly the same thing I typed yesterday. The one thing that has changed is that it now looks like we may squeeze out a dry Thursday morning, but undoubtedly it's going to pour (and I mean pour) Thursday afternoon and evening. There is also a risk of a light snow event on Monday as a clipper moves through, but it would be like 1-3" or so...and I'm not concerned about that so far out. Otherwise, temps will moderate after today (when we likely won't reach 40).
Today in weather history- March 24, 1912- A monster snowstorm drops 25" of snow in Kansas City, MO in just 24 hours. What makes this remarkable is that it's not just the biggest snowstorm on record for that region, but it's nearly double the second place storm!
Well, I'm not going to bore you by typing, essentially, exactly the same thing I typed yesterday. The one thing that has changed is that it now looks like we may squeeze out a dry Thursday morning, but undoubtedly it's going to pour (and I mean pour) Thursday afternoon and evening. There is also a risk of a light snow event on Monday as a clipper moves through, but it would be like 1-3" or so...and I'm not concerned about that so far out. Otherwise, temps will moderate after today (when we likely won't reach 40).
Today in weather history- March 24, 1912- A monster snowstorm drops 25" of snow in Kansas City, MO in just 24 hours. What makes this remarkable is that it's not just the biggest snowstorm on record for that region, but it's nearly double the second place storm!
Monday, March 23, 2015
3/23- Not bad this week
Good Monday all-
A very calm work week of weather is on the way, as mild temps and sunshine will prevail for 3 of the next 5 days. The exceptions are today...where temps will struggle to reach the mid-30s....and Thursday...when it's going to pour all day because of a classic inside runner storm. The temps on that day will be around 60, but you'll need an umbrella to enjoy it!
There is a slight chance of a winter storm this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic of that threat at the present time.
Today in weather history- March 23, 1913- A massive tornado hits downtown Omaha, NE. In just 12 minutes, it cuts a path 5 miles long, but causes severe damage and kills 94 people in its' path.
A very calm work week of weather is on the way, as mild temps and sunshine will prevail for 3 of the next 5 days. The exceptions are today...where temps will struggle to reach the mid-30s....and Thursday...when it's going to pour all day because of a classic inside runner storm. The temps on that day will be around 60, but you'll need an umbrella to enjoy it!
There is a slight chance of a winter storm this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic of that threat at the present time.
Today in weather history- March 23, 1913- A massive tornado hits downtown Omaha, NE. In just 12 minutes, it cuts a path 5 miles long, but causes severe damage and kills 94 people in its' path.
Friday, March 20, 2015
3/20- Say hello to spring with a minor snowfall
HAPPY FRIDAY ALL!
Unfortunately, it'll be a day where the PM commute is a nightmare. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for the southern four counties, where I expect 2 to 5 inches generally south of Meriden, and 1-2" north of there. I think someone may get 6", but it'll be highly isolated in nature, and the exception rather than the rule. For what it's worth, by the way, this is more likely to bust high than low- I'd be surprised...but not stunned...if most areas got less than that. The heaviest amounts today will undoubtedly be on the shoreline. In fact, some of extreme northeast CT may be hard pressed to see a flake today...whereas areas south of Meriden will be picking up several inches. Snow will develop around 2 from southwest to northeast, and the worst of the snow will fall between 5 and 7 before the storm departs around 10PM tonight. There are several Early Dismissals being called along the shoreline, and I expect that even more schools will dismiss early today as the snow begins, though some areas (especially east of the CT River) should be able to get the full day in before the snow begins to fall.
Regardless of how much snow you get this evening, the weekend should be just fine. Next Wednesday and Thursday, a rainstorm moves through...but that primes the pattern for another snowstorm threat a week from today.
Unfortunately, it'll be a day where the PM commute is a nightmare. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for the southern four counties, where I expect 2 to 5 inches generally south of Meriden, and 1-2" north of there. I think someone may get 6", but it'll be highly isolated in nature, and the exception rather than the rule. For what it's worth, by the way, this is more likely to bust high than low- I'd be surprised...but not stunned...if most areas got less than that. The heaviest amounts today will undoubtedly be on the shoreline. In fact, some of extreme northeast CT may be hard pressed to see a flake today...whereas areas south of Meriden will be picking up several inches. Snow will develop around 2 from southwest to northeast, and the worst of the snow will fall between 5 and 7 before the storm departs around 10PM tonight. There are several Early Dismissals being called along the shoreline, and I expect that even more schools will dismiss early today as the snow begins, though some areas (especially east of the CT River) should be able to get the full day in before the snow begins to fall.
Regardless of how much snow you get this evening, the weekend should be just fine. Next Wednesday and Thursday, a rainstorm moves through...but that primes the pattern for another snowstorm threat a week from today.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
3/19- STORM WARNING- Winter's Revenge
Good Thursday all-
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the southern four counties from 6 AM tomorrow to 2 AM Saturday, for 2-4" of snow, which is too low of a figure for many (and NOAA agrees, so I think we'll see this getting bumped up today to 4-6", which is far more reasonable).
Anyway, today won't be bad except for the temperatures, which will get no further than the mid-30s. Unfortunately, a significant snowstorm is likely tomorrow, at least considering the time of year. I've always said the true snow season is 11/15 to 3/15 here in CT, and this falls outside of that. In fact, this looks like the most significant snowstorm after that date (most of CT experienced near blizzard conditions and 6-12" of snow). Anyway, I expect 3-6" of snow to fall tomorrow, with the 6" being isolated in unluckier areas...and 4 and 5 inch totals being very commonplace. In fact, if I had to guess for one specific town...I'd put the guess down at four inches. Unfortunately for children...the storm comes late enough tomorrow that I think schools would only dismiss early...if anything...and the height of the storm comes tomorrow evening between about 5-8 PM.
Note that this forecast is quite volatile. Any jog further north would lead to a widespread 5-10" event...a possibility that I would put at 25% or so (and NOAA agrees, putting most of CT in a 25% chance of more than 6-8"). In any event, there is certainly now a >50% chance of 4" of snow (it's probably somewhere around 80%), so the storm watch becomes a storm warning. Next week looks quiet before a storm threat on Thursday.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the southern four counties from 6 AM tomorrow to 2 AM Saturday, for 2-4" of snow, which is too low of a figure for many (and NOAA agrees, so I think we'll see this getting bumped up today to 4-6", which is far more reasonable).
Anyway, today won't be bad except for the temperatures, which will get no further than the mid-30s. Unfortunately, a significant snowstorm is likely tomorrow, at least considering the time of year. I've always said the true snow season is 11/15 to 3/15 here in CT, and this falls outside of that. In fact, this looks like the most significant snowstorm after that date (most of CT experienced near blizzard conditions and 6-12" of snow). Anyway, I expect 3-6" of snow to fall tomorrow, with the 6" being isolated in unluckier areas...and 4 and 5 inch totals being very commonplace. In fact, if I had to guess for one specific town...I'd put the guess down at four inches. Unfortunately for children...the storm comes late enough tomorrow that I think schools would only dismiss early...if anything...and the height of the storm comes tomorrow evening between about 5-8 PM.
Note that this forecast is quite volatile. Any jog further north would lead to a widespread 5-10" event...a possibility that I would put at 25% or so (and NOAA agrees, putting most of CT in a 25% chance of more than 6-8"). In any event, there is certainly now a >50% chance of 4" of snow (it's probably somewhere around 80%), so the storm watch becomes a storm warning. Next week looks quiet before a storm threat on Thursday.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
3/17-STORM WATCH- Another tricky forecast
Good Wednesday all-
A WIND ADVISORY is up for Windham, Tolland, and Hartford counties until 5PM tonight.
Well, it's really windy right now, and that, along with the frigid temperatures, will undoubtedly be the top story of the weather today. Unfortunately, Friday afternoon looks to be a bit of trouble, but the model runs came in far less impressive overnight last night, with the CMC showing rain, the GFS showing a glancing blow, and the Euro ramping way down after dropping 2 feet of snow on New Jersey in yesterday's model run, as it now shows a far-more-realistic 4-8" or so. I think that's the most believable scenario for the moment...but it could certainly change. Based on that, I'll begin with forecasting 3 to 6 inches of snow Friday afternoon...and we will go from there. There is certainly a chance it could be more...or less...than that, so we are just going to have to wait and see. In the end, there is still a >25% chance of 4" of snow, so a STORM WATCH will stay up, at least for today. The mid-day model runs today are absolutely critical- I'll likely post later tonight with an update to this forecast.
In the meantime, stay warm!
A WIND ADVISORY is up for Windham, Tolland, and Hartford counties until 5PM tonight.
Well, it's really windy right now, and that, along with the frigid temperatures, will undoubtedly be the top story of the weather today. Unfortunately, Friday afternoon looks to be a bit of trouble, but the model runs came in far less impressive overnight last night, with the CMC showing rain, the GFS showing a glancing blow, and the Euro ramping way down after dropping 2 feet of snow on New Jersey in yesterday's model run, as it now shows a far-more-realistic 4-8" or so. I think that's the most believable scenario for the moment...but it could certainly change. Based on that, I'll begin with forecasting 3 to 6 inches of snow Friday afternoon...and we will go from there. There is certainly a chance it could be more...or less...than that, so we are just going to have to wait and see. In the end, there is still a >25% chance of 4" of snow, so a STORM WATCH will stay up, at least for today. The mid-day model runs today are absolutely critical- I'll likely post later tonight with an update to this forecast.
In the meantime, stay warm!
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
3/17- STORM WATCH- Back to winter- major snowstorm Friday/Saturday?
Good Tuesday all- Happy St Patrick's Day!
Well, it's raining out there this morning, which is somewhat unexpected as warm fronts don't necessarily produce this kind of organized precip, but it happens from time to time, so to say that I'm stunned wouldn't really make much sense. Anyway, an arctic cold front moves through tonight with some flurries, which helps to set the stage for Friday.
The CMC and Euro models both show a major snowstorm for Friday afternoon. A nor'easter is going to develop off the coast and so, obviously, there's quite a significant threat anytime this happens. The question is what's going to happen with the path. The CMC would be a wintry mix on the shoreline, but an epic spring shocker inland...while the Euro would be a 4-8" or 5-10" snowfall for everyone- more of a moderate snowstorm than the CMC event is (which would probably put out a foot of snow in places). The GFS is just a glancing blow, however...that model is notorious for being too far southeast with storms...so I'm actually more concerned that it's southeast as it typically trends northwest about 2 days before the storm (tomorrow afternoon).
Also, as amazing as it sounds, I do not believe Friday's storm is a last hurrah of winter either. I think there could be as many as three or four more snowstorms we have to get through before the winter goes bye-bye for good. All I can say is remember 4/1/97 and (even worse) 4/6/95- it is possible, just difficult. I'm officially dreaming of a white Easter, however.
Well, it's raining out there this morning, which is somewhat unexpected as warm fronts don't necessarily produce this kind of organized precip, but it happens from time to time, so to say that I'm stunned wouldn't really make much sense. Anyway, an arctic cold front moves through tonight with some flurries, which helps to set the stage for Friday.
The CMC and Euro models both show a major snowstorm for Friday afternoon. A nor'easter is going to develop off the coast and so, obviously, there's quite a significant threat anytime this happens. The question is what's going to happen with the path. The CMC would be a wintry mix on the shoreline, but an epic spring shocker inland...while the Euro would be a 4-8" or 5-10" snowfall for everyone- more of a moderate snowstorm than the CMC event is (which would probably put out a foot of snow in places). The GFS is just a glancing blow, however...that model is notorious for being too far southeast with storms...so I'm actually more concerned that it's southeast as it typically trends northwest about 2 days before the storm (tomorrow afternoon).
Also, as amazing as it sounds, I do not believe Friday's storm is a last hurrah of winter either. I think there could be as many as three or four more snowstorms we have to get through before the winter goes bye-bye for good. All I can say is remember 4/1/97 and (even worse) 4/6/95- it is possible, just difficult. I'm officially dreaming of a white Easter, however.
Monday, March 16, 2015
3/16- DOUBLE STORM WATCH- Don't shoot the messenger
Good Monday all-
Look at the bright side everyone- today is going to be beautiful with bright sunshine and high temperatures that will likely approach or even exceed 50 in some places, and be just a gorgeous day to spend outside playing, walking, or doing any other activities. Unfortunately, that won't last as tomorrow night, a cold front moves through with a brief wintry mix that I'm not too concerned about...but highs on Wednesday won't even reach the freezing mark!! Ouch. Thursday looks similar.
It's Friday, especially Friday afternoon, that I'm greatly concerned about. A nor'easter is going to develop after phasing with a clipper system over the center part of the country. There is some model disagreement on what will happen here. The CMC...and Euro...are forecasting a significant snowstorm for Connecticut (though mixing issues would occur on the CMC)...while the GFS is about 40 miles too far south. That said, the GFS has, thorough it's entire existence, had a southeast bias. Thus, the concern greatly exists for Friday. I think there is now about a 25-30% chance of 4"+ of snow...so a STORM WATCH is issued.
Saturday looks dry, Sunday not so much. A clipper system will move through and try to become a nor'easter off the coast, and again there's a 25% chance of 4+" of snow. Thus, a STORM WATCH is required for then too. This is the first double storm watch that I can remember!
Today in weather history- March 16, 1942- Two tornadoes manage to hit Baldwin, MS 24 minutes apart from each other, killing 65 people.
Also noteworthy- March 16, 1986- A tornado comes dangerously close to striking Disneyland in California!
Look at the bright side everyone- today is going to be beautiful with bright sunshine and high temperatures that will likely approach or even exceed 50 in some places, and be just a gorgeous day to spend outside playing, walking, or doing any other activities. Unfortunately, that won't last as tomorrow night, a cold front moves through with a brief wintry mix that I'm not too concerned about...but highs on Wednesday won't even reach the freezing mark!! Ouch. Thursday looks similar.
It's Friday, especially Friday afternoon, that I'm greatly concerned about. A nor'easter is going to develop after phasing with a clipper system over the center part of the country. There is some model disagreement on what will happen here. The CMC...and Euro...are forecasting a significant snowstorm for Connecticut (though mixing issues would occur on the CMC)...while the GFS is about 40 miles too far south. That said, the GFS has, thorough it's entire existence, had a southeast bias. Thus, the concern greatly exists for Friday. I think there is now about a 25-30% chance of 4"+ of snow...so a STORM WATCH is issued.
Saturday looks dry, Sunday not so much. A clipper system will move through and try to become a nor'easter off the coast, and again there's a 25% chance of 4+" of snow. Thus, a STORM WATCH is required for then too. This is the first double storm watch that I can remember!
Today in weather history- March 16, 1942- Two tornadoes manage to hit Baldwin, MS 24 minutes apart from each other, killing 65 people.
Also noteworthy- March 16, 1986- A tornado comes dangerously close to striking Disneyland in California!
Saturday, March 14, 2015
3/14- Total loss today, better but not perfect tomorrow
Good Saturday all-
I'm blogging this morning because we're under an alert this morning. Firstly, a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is up for northern CT. To be honest, I'm quite surprised there aren't flood warnings...and to be honest there probably should be...so please expect some minor flooding today because of the snowmelt as well as just a large amount of rain. Basically, the timing of this could not be worse, as it's literally going to pour all day today- the rain will stop around 8 tonight, after sunset. On the positive note, tomorrow looks fine, though a few flurries may be around during the day. Otherwise, the only day of concern is Friday. The Euro is showing two storms phasing over the central part of the country and effecting us, while the GFS totally misses the connection. I'm not even going to try to predict the impacts of the storm if it does phase other than saying it would either be tons of rain...tons of snow...or moderate amounts of both.
Enjoy your weekend, and stay dry!
By the way, happy Ultimate Pi day, 3/14/15! It really doesn't get better than this for math geeks today, so eat some pie today to celebrate! Granted, if you're a chemistry geek, you'll be celebrating like this on 6/02/22, but still will be off by a number at the end.
I'm blogging this morning because we're under an alert this morning. Firstly, a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is up for northern CT. To be honest, I'm quite surprised there aren't flood warnings...and to be honest there probably should be...so please expect some minor flooding today because of the snowmelt as well as just a large amount of rain. Basically, the timing of this could not be worse, as it's literally going to pour all day today- the rain will stop around 8 tonight, after sunset. On the positive note, tomorrow looks fine, though a few flurries may be around during the day. Otherwise, the only day of concern is Friday. The Euro is showing two storms phasing over the central part of the country and effecting us, while the GFS totally misses the connection. I'm not even going to try to predict the impacts of the storm if it does phase other than saying it would either be tons of rain...tons of snow...or moderate amounts of both.
Enjoy your weekend, and stay dry!
By the way, happy Ultimate Pi day, 3/14/15! It really doesn't get better than this for math geeks today, so eat some pie today to celebrate! Granted, if you're a chemistry geek, you'll be celebrating like this on 6/02/22, but still will be off by a number at the end.
Friday, March 13, 2015
3/13- From beautiful today to an absolute nightmare tomorrow
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!!!!!
Today is going to be fantastic- it'll feel like mother nature is celebrating the weekend as well as the temps will climb into the mid-40s today with bright sunshine. The big problem is tomorrow. If you have any outdoor plans...well kiss them goodbye as it's going to absolutely pour all day tomorrow with temps probably not reaching much higher than 40. UGH. By the time the storm ends late tomorrow night, 0.8-1.5" of rain will have fallen across the state, which is very unfortunate indeed! Some lingering flurries will be around on Sunday, but they won't be a big deal at all. The main stories next week are going to be colder temperatures...especially around Wednesday...and the chance of a blockbuster snowstorm around a week from today as two storms attempt to phase...but we can't say with any certainty whatsoever that they will do so a week out.
Today in weather history- March 13, 1888- The Great Blizzard of 1888 finally begins to wind down across New England. The snow slowly starts to get lighter, and comes to a stop early the following morning. The jackpot in Connecticut- a whopping 55" in Middletown. This storm even to this day is absolutely unrivaled in terms of intensity (winds gusted to near hurricane force), duration (nearly three days), and snow totals. For comparison, 2013's blizzard jackpot zone (Hamden) was 40" or so. Imagine another 15" on top of that. Then you'd have the Blizzard of 1888. It is an event that probably only happens in our region once every 200-300 years, and we have to remember just how remarkable it was.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
3/12- Awful weekend
Good Thursday all-
Well, at least I am dropping the severe storm watch as the 3-day snowstorm is off the table.
However, the weekend doesn't look good either, so a regular STORM WATCH is up, as there is a significantly greater than 25% chance of getting 1+" of rain (75%). In fact, there is still about a 15% chance of 4+" of snow Sunday evening...so we'll leave it. In any event, today is going to be great, tomorrow is going to be fine, but it's Saturday that will be a complete and total washout, as I expect as much as two inches of rain to fall beginning Saturday morning and lasting into Sunday afternoon...at which point it will change to snow...and likely drop 1-3" or so...but models have been a bit more aggressive with that this morning, so picking up a bit more is certainly possible. Next week looks totally fine, with snow showers Tuesday night. Sadly, although it's very early, the weekend of the 21st may include a snowstorm.
Today in weather history- March 12, 1888- Rain in the northeast changes into a heavy wet snow and then changes to fluffy as the temps plummet. As this happens, the storm stalls off the coast...and the biggest snowstorm in New England history begins in earnest.
Well, at least I am dropping the severe storm watch as the 3-day snowstorm is off the table.
However, the weekend doesn't look good either, so a regular STORM WATCH is up, as there is a significantly greater than 25% chance of getting 1+" of rain (75%). In fact, there is still about a 15% chance of 4+" of snow Sunday evening...so we'll leave it. In any event, today is going to be great, tomorrow is going to be fine, but it's Saturday that will be a complete and total washout, as I expect as much as two inches of rain to fall beginning Saturday morning and lasting into Sunday afternoon...at which point it will change to snow...and likely drop 1-3" or so...but models have been a bit more aggressive with that this morning, so picking up a bit more is certainly possible. Next week looks totally fine, with snow showers Tuesday night. Sadly, although it's very early, the weekend of the 21st may include a snowstorm.
Today in weather history- March 12, 1888- Rain in the northeast changes into a heavy wet snow and then changes to fluffy as the temps plummet. As this happens, the storm stalls off the coast...and the biggest snowstorm in New England history begins in earnest.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
3/11- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Great today, flirting with disaster for weekend
Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be, by a clear mile, the best day so far in 2015 as high temperatures will reach the mid to even upper 50s today. It'll feel great!!! Tomorrow looks fine, as does Friday.
My concern for the weekend is increasing, however. There are currently two model camps...the GFS and the Euro...and, of course, they do not agree remotely. Let's examine both.
The Euro is not a big deal, except for rain developing very late Friday and lasting much of Saturday. The transfer of energy between the two storms happens just too late for any major wintry precip. The storm moves out Sunday, and stalls over Nova Scotia. I think this solution probably gets the storm out too quickly, and I don't like the way it's handling the transfer as storms tend not to redevelop off Boston, but further south. I am therefore more inclined to believe at least the first part of the GFS solution at this time.
The GFS, however, is rather eye-opening, especially since it's been consistent the last few runs. I ask you to please please please take this with a tablespoon of salt, as I can't endorse the extreme solution that follows until I'm 90-95% certain it's possible, let alone will actually occur.
The GFS brings the storm up on Friday night, like the Euro, beginning with mixed precip. It may briefly be all rain south of I-84 (for about 6hrs or so). The storm then tries to move out as temps crash...but it gets blocked in, and a secondary storm system develops behind it, and delivers a crushing snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. Between the two storms...over sixteen inches of snow would fall statewide (If I had to guess, I'd put the combined total of BOTH storms at 17-26" or so. What's even more concerning...is that the first storm on the GFS is dangerously close to being all a heavy wet snow...and if it was, it would be roughly 10-20" followed by another 8-12" on top of it (thus leading to a forecast of 18-32" with locally higher amounts). As I said, this is the extreme (and therefore unlikely) solution, and I don't expect it. That said...it's on the current table of options, and such a storm would undoubtedly be historic...I thus issue a severe storm watch.
Today in weather history- March 11-14, 1888- The big one for Connecticut, as a massive nor'easter stalls right over the 40/70 benchmark and completes two separate loops, dropping heavy snow on Connecticut for some 40 hours, and snowfall reaches 30-60" statewide and drifts as tall as 30 feet. The storm smashes all records, most of which still stand today. In fact, the only storm that even compares to this one is the Blizzard of 2013...and that's only from that narrow stripe from New Haven to Hartford or so that includes Hamden...Wallingford...and Meriden. On this particular date, the storm was located over the Gulf states, and unseasonably warm weather was occuring in the Northeast. The storm began overnight as heavy rain. I don't want to alarm anyone, but does that sound familiar? If not, read the above forecast
Today is going to be, by a clear mile, the best day so far in 2015 as high temperatures will reach the mid to even upper 50s today. It'll feel great!!! Tomorrow looks fine, as does Friday.
My concern for the weekend is increasing, however. There are currently two model camps...the GFS and the Euro...and, of course, they do not agree remotely. Let's examine both.
The Euro is not a big deal, except for rain developing very late Friday and lasting much of Saturday. The transfer of energy between the two storms happens just too late for any major wintry precip. The storm moves out Sunday, and stalls over Nova Scotia. I think this solution probably gets the storm out too quickly, and I don't like the way it's handling the transfer as storms tend not to redevelop off Boston, but further south. I am therefore more inclined to believe at least the first part of the GFS solution at this time.
The GFS, however, is rather eye-opening, especially since it's been consistent the last few runs. I ask you to please please please take this with a tablespoon of salt, as I can't endorse the extreme solution that follows until I'm 90-95% certain it's possible, let alone will actually occur.
The GFS brings the storm up on Friday night, like the Euro, beginning with mixed precip. It may briefly be all rain south of I-84 (for about 6hrs or so). The storm then tries to move out as temps crash...but it gets blocked in, and a secondary storm system develops behind it, and delivers a crushing snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. Between the two storms...over sixteen inches of snow would fall statewide (If I had to guess, I'd put the combined total of BOTH storms at 17-26" or so. What's even more concerning...is that the first storm on the GFS is dangerously close to being all a heavy wet snow...and if it was, it would be roughly 10-20" followed by another 8-12" on top of it (thus leading to a forecast of 18-32" with locally higher amounts). As I said, this is the extreme (and therefore unlikely) solution, and I don't expect it. That said...it's on the current table of options, and such a storm would undoubtedly be historic...I thus issue a severe storm watch.
Today in weather history- March 11-14, 1888- The big one for Connecticut, as a massive nor'easter stalls right over the 40/70 benchmark and completes two separate loops, dropping heavy snow on Connecticut for some 40 hours, and snowfall reaches 30-60" statewide and drifts as tall as 30 feet. The storm smashes all records, most of which still stand today. In fact, the only storm that even compares to this one is the Blizzard of 2013...and that's only from that narrow stripe from New Haven to Hartford or so that includes Hamden...Wallingford...and Meriden. On this particular date, the storm was located over the Gulf states, and unseasonably warm weather was occuring in the Northeast. The storm began overnight as heavy rain. I don't want to alarm anyone, but does that sound familiar? If not, read the above forecast
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
3/10- Stormy pattern ahead
Good Tuesday all-
There is quite honestly not much to talk about until tonight. Undoubtedly, the big story today is that there may well be some black ice out there this morning after the melting yesterday followed by the sub-freezing lows we currently have. Today, we're going to reach the mid-40s again, so more melting will ensue, followed by a rather significant rainstorm tonight. It'll be almost exactly during the overnight hours, around 6PM to 4AM or so, and it'll drop 0.25-0.5" of rain tonight. The weather then dries out until Sunday...when a very complex storm hits us. There is certainly a threat for everything...but this is a rare situation with both a phase and a transfer of energy. Trying to guess one a week out is hard...guessing two is next to impossible...so I won't even try here. As currently modeled, the low is straight over the top of Connecticut. Such a result would be a mix...but a storm just 50-100 miles south would lead to a monster snowstorm, and 50-100 miles further north is a complete rainstorm. Tough call. The storm watch shall remain in place, as there is a 25% chance of getting either 4"+ of snow or 1"+ of rain...probably about a 15% chance or so for each of them.
Today in weather history- March 10, 1989- Hill City, KS, manages to warm from an overnight low of 30 to a high of 90, a 60 degree rise in temperature!!!
There is quite honestly not much to talk about until tonight. Undoubtedly, the big story today is that there may well be some black ice out there this morning after the melting yesterday followed by the sub-freezing lows we currently have. Today, we're going to reach the mid-40s again, so more melting will ensue, followed by a rather significant rainstorm tonight. It'll be almost exactly during the overnight hours, around 6PM to 4AM or so, and it'll drop 0.25-0.5" of rain tonight. The weather then dries out until Sunday...when a very complex storm hits us. There is certainly a threat for everything...but this is a rare situation with both a phase and a transfer of energy. Trying to guess one a week out is hard...guessing two is next to impossible...so I won't even try here. As currently modeled, the low is straight over the top of Connecticut. Such a result would be a mix...but a storm just 50-100 miles south would lead to a monster snowstorm, and 50-100 miles further north is a complete rainstorm. Tough call. The storm watch shall remain in place, as there is a 25% chance of getting either 4"+ of snow or 1"+ of rain...probably about a 15% chance or so for each of them.
Today in weather history- March 10, 1989- Hill City, KS, manages to warm from an overnight low of 30 to a high of 90, a 60 degree rise in temperature!!!
Monday, March 9, 2015
3/10- Quiet week ahead, BIG trouble for Sunday?
Good Monday all-
The big story of this work week is going to be temperatures, as they climb to near 50 by Wednesday!! That may sound great, but the snowpack on the ground will make it a complete disaster as a rapid melt could cause a large amount of black ice on Thursday morning. Other than that...we get a glancing blow from a storm Tuesday PM, with light rain showers. Otherwise...
The weekend could be big trouble, especially the second part. There is big model disagreement in this timeframe, but not on one key thing. A large coastal low will develop, impact New England, and then sit over the same place for about 25 hours. Needless to say...that's a very rare event...but looks highly possible this weekend. The disagreement? One model...the Euro (which has been unusually bad this winter) is forecasting several inches of rain. Another, the GFS (which tends to have a bias to the southeast) has a norlun trough developing over the region and dumping heavy snow from 4 AM Sunday to noon Monday. In such a situation...snowfall totals would probably eclipse twenty inches statewide. The even bigger concern is that the mean solution of the two is a path and a stall directly over the 40/70 benchmark...and that would be a very scary outcome for New England and would probably lead to snowfall that we'd be measuring with a yardstick...and the snow would be heavier than the GFS modeled, which we really do NOT need after the winter we've had.
With that said...I am going to issue a STORM WATCH for Sunday...simply because of the devastating potential of the upper end of the storm possibilities. The odds would probably favor a wintry mix...but still feature several inches of snow...and a large amount of ice as well.
If anyone is wondering about the biggest snowstorm in March in recorded history, then I'll send you on a scavenger hunt...and tell you no more than to look up the dates of March 11-14, 1888. That storm is undoubtedly the biggest snowstorm in Connecticut history.
The big story of this work week is going to be temperatures, as they climb to near 50 by Wednesday!! That may sound great, but the snowpack on the ground will make it a complete disaster as a rapid melt could cause a large amount of black ice on Thursday morning. Other than that...we get a glancing blow from a storm Tuesday PM, with light rain showers. Otherwise...
The weekend could be big trouble, especially the second part. There is big model disagreement in this timeframe, but not on one key thing. A large coastal low will develop, impact New England, and then sit over the same place for about 25 hours. Needless to say...that's a very rare event...but looks highly possible this weekend. The disagreement? One model...the Euro (which has been unusually bad this winter) is forecasting several inches of rain. Another, the GFS (which tends to have a bias to the southeast) has a norlun trough developing over the region and dumping heavy snow from 4 AM Sunday to noon Monday. In such a situation...snowfall totals would probably eclipse twenty inches statewide. The even bigger concern is that the mean solution of the two is a path and a stall directly over the 40/70 benchmark...and that would be a very scary outcome for New England and would probably lead to snowfall that we'd be measuring with a yardstick...and the snow would be heavier than the GFS modeled, which we really do NOT need after the winter we've had.
With that said...I am going to issue a STORM WATCH for Sunday...simply because of the devastating potential of the upper end of the storm possibilities. The odds would probably favor a wintry mix...but still feature several inches of snow...and a large amount of ice as well.
If anyone is wondering about the biggest snowstorm in March in recorded history, then I'll send you on a scavenger hunt...and tell you no more than to look up the dates of March 11-14, 1888. That storm is undoubtedly the biggest snowstorm in Connecticut history.
Saturday, March 7, 2015
3/7- The nor'easter train rolls on...
Good Saturday everyone-
Well, today is going to be very nice indeed, but the problems are far from gone, as multiple snow threats exist in the next week, one of which I'm far more concerned about than others. They are quite far off though other than a possible flurry today or especially tomorrow, and temps will be rather chilly both days. The first big storm threat is Wednesday, but there just isn't much cold air in place whatsoever, and for that to be wintry, it needs to "make it's own" cold air, which is very, very tough. It's more likely that the storm will either totally miss...or be primarily rain. I'm much more concerned about next Saturday, as that could be a classic snowstorm for Connecticut, but we're obviously way too far out for anything more than to note a threat sometime around next weekend.
Well, today is going to be very nice indeed, but the problems are far from gone, as multiple snow threats exist in the next week, one of which I'm far more concerned about than others. They are quite far off though other than a possible flurry today or especially tomorrow, and temps will be rather chilly both days. The first big storm threat is Wednesday, but there just isn't much cold air in place whatsoever, and for that to be wintry, it needs to "make it's own" cold air, which is very, very tough. It's more likely that the storm will either totally miss...or be primarily rain. I'm much more concerned about next Saturday, as that could be a classic snowstorm for Connecticut, but we're obviously way too far out for anything more than to note a threat sometime around next weekend.
Friday, March 6, 2015
3/6- Moderating...
Happy FRIDAY everyone!
This post will not be a long one. After a general 5-10" of snow fell on the shoreline yesterday, 3-6" from about Wallingford south, and very little north of that (I've got 3 inches on the ground at my house on the Wallingford/North Haven border), we are experiencing record breaking cold this morning as high pressure settles in. Tomorrow will be quite cold as well, but then we begin to moderate. In any event, NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT!!. I'll keep it nice and short therefore, and wish you a happy Friday!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1990- A strong storm dumps Colorado's Front Range and Denver with 2-4ft of snow, 3-5ft drifts occur in Denver. Yikes!
This post will not be a long one. After a general 5-10" of snow fell on the shoreline yesterday, 3-6" from about Wallingford south, and very little north of that (I've got 3 inches on the ground at my house on the Wallingford/North Haven border), we are experiencing record breaking cold this morning as high pressure settles in. Tomorrow will be quite cold as well, but then we begin to moderate. In any event, NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT!!. I'll keep it nice and short therefore, and wish you a happy Friday!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1990- A strong storm dumps Colorado's Front Range and Denver with 2-4ft of snow, 3-5ft drifts occur in Denver. Yikes!
Thursday, March 5, 2015
3/5- Last second jog north dooms CT to another snowstorm
Good Thursday all-
The four shoreline counties this morning are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
Well, a last-instant jog to the north nearly tripled or quadrupled the forecast last night, which I did blog about...but I doubt many read as it was around 6-7 PM. The bottom line is that I now expect a minimum snowfall of 3-6"...and it wouldn't shock me if it was 8-14" for the southern counties...a solution which is supported by the GFS. While I'm not sure I believe in that extreme situation...I will consider it and take the middle ground of 5-10"...which seems reasonable...but could change. Unfortunately, model disagreement on this storm is insane and for all the major snowstorms we've had this winter...this is by far the most difficult to forecast. Heavy snow is likely through at least noon today...but how long it lingers into the afternoon is likely what will decide whether we get a moderate snow event...or a fully fledged snowstorm. Many schools have wisely closed for today and others that have delayed will likely follow suit eventually...since the roads will actually be significantly worse in 90 minutes or 2 hours than they are now as the snow picks up in intensity through the morning.
Once we get through this storm though, the snow takes a break for a while, and we may reach the mid-40s by mid next week before we get another threat around a week from Friday that will knock the temps back to below normal once more.
If you MUST travel today from Meriden south, PLEASE BE CAREFUL!!!!
The four shoreline counties this morning are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
Well, a last-instant jog to the north nearly tripled or quadrupled the forecast last night, which I did blog about...but I doubt many read as it was around 6-7 PM. The bottom line is that I now expect a minimum snowfall of 3-6"...and it wouldn't shock me if it was 8-14" for the southern counties...a solution which is supported by the GFS. While I'm not sure I believe in that extreme situation...I will consider it and take the middle ground of 5-10"...which seems reasonable...but could change. Unfortunately, model disagreement on this storm is insane and for all the major snowstorms we've had this winter...this is by far the most difficult to forecast. Heavy snow is likely through at least noon today...but how long it lingers into the afternoon is likely what will decide whether we get a moderate snow event...or a fully fledged snowstorm. Many schools have wisely closed for today and others that have delayed will likely follow suit eventually...since the roads will actually be significantly worse in 90 minutes or 2 hours than they are now as the snow picks up in intensity through the morning.
Once we get through this storm though, the snow takes a break for a while, and we may reach the mid-40s by mid next week before we get another threat around a week from Friday that will knock the temps back to below normal once more.
If you MUST travel today from Meriden south, PLEASE BE CAREFUL!!!!
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
PLEASE READ- CRITICAL FORECAST UPDATE
Good evening-
Well, remember how I said a 30 mile shift north would be big trouble? Well, it's gone eighty miles north...and now models are dropping as much as 8-14" on southern Connecticut. Yikes! This could be a big snowstorm for everyone, in fact some in Fairfield County could get the most from any other single storm this year.
Sorry for the late notice! The single most difficult forecast ever just took a crazy turn.
Well, remember how I said a 30 mile shift north would be big trouble? Well, it's gone eighty miles north...and now models are dropping as much as 8-14" on southern Connecticut. Yikes! This could be a big snowstorm for everyone, in fact some in Fairfield County could get the most from any other single storm this year.
Sorry for the late notice! The single most difficult forecast ever just took a crazy turn.
3/4- The pattern has finally broke
Good Wednesday all-
Well, the storm for tonight has mysteriously disappeared for us, and I think 1-3" is a good call. Oddly, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the southern counties, but I highly disagree with their forecast...and am puzzled big time as to why they did that. Hopefully they'll be cancelled before the storm. What happened is that the storm shifted south a tad too far for any significant snow here. As I said before, this was a very delicate forecast to begin with, and this booted the snow to Jersey. Central New Jersey can expect 6-12" of snow this evening- that's how close we are to getting a huge snowstorm, but it's simply not going to happen. In any event, there are no major storms in sight now for quite some time, other than occasional flurries on Monday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s during this time period, which is still below average but manageable. Before I go though, it's worth mentioning that Friday morning will very likely feature record lows for us here in CT (as in the low single digits or even some negative numbers).
Today is the only day of the year which is also a command, so now "March forth!" and enjoy your day!
Today in weather history- March 4th, 1909- President Taft's inaguaration was forecasted to feature fair weather, but instead a major nor'easter clobbered DC, and he gave his speech in a raging snowstorm, drawing much critisism to the US Weather Bureau, the predecessor to our NWS. Yikes!
Well, the storm for tonight has mysteriously disappeared for us, and I think 1-3" is a good call. Oddly, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the southern counties, but I highly disagree with their forecast...and am puzzled big time as to why they did that. Hopefully they'll be cancelled before the storm. What happened is that the storm shifted south a tad too far for any significant snow here. As I said before, this was a very delicate forecast to begin with, and this booted the snow to Jersey. Central New Jersey can expect 6-12" of snow this evening- that's how close we are to getting a huge snowstorm, but it's simply not going to happen. In any event, there are no major storms in sight now for quite some time, other than occasional flurries on Monday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s during this time period, which is still below average but manageable. Before I go though, it's worth mentioning that Friday morning will very likely feature record lows for us here in CT (as in the low single digits or even some negative numbers).
Today is the only day of the year which is also a command, so now "March forth!" and enjoy your day!
Today in weather history- March 4th, 1909- President Taft's inaguaration was forecasted to feature fair weather, but instead a major nor'easter clobbered DC, and he gave his speech in a raging snowstorm, drawing much critisism to the US Weather Bureau, the predecessor to our NWS. Yikes!
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Did we dodge the bullet?
I just wanted to give a quick update here to say the models at 12z are south. Not by far...but far enough to miss the heaviest snow here. Still a 3-6" snowfall is possible south of 84...but let's see what happens.
3/3- Here we go again...more snow
Good Tuesday all-
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for all of Connecticut from 2PM today to 630AM tomorrow...but this is just the warmup act. This afternoon (around 1) snow will be developing from west to east, and quickly become heavy at times before changing to sleet at around 8 PM tonight. 3 AM seems to be the magic number for the transition to rain and freezing rain. My concern is primarily that the snow is cold enough where it can create freezing rain even if the temperature is 34 or so...and that there could be a fair amount (0.1-0.25") of ice accumulation. The precipitation will end around 9 AM tomorrow altogether, for about 12 hours. By tomorrow night, however, heavy snow develops once more, except this time the storm will remain all snow...and a major snowstorm is very possible tomorrow night and Thursday morning. In a worst case situation...as much as 10-15" could fall...but I'd expect a more modest 5-10" at this time. Let's see how this plays out...I'll have an update for you once I see the noon model runs today, as they are absolutely key to nailing down whether Thursday will be a moderate snowfall...or the second biggest snowfall of the season thus far.
Either way, the weekend looks fine, but another snow event is likely on Monday. We're way too far out for any details on that, however.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for all of Connecticut from 2PM today to 630AM tomorrow...but this is just the warmup act. This afternoon (around 1) snow will be developing from west to east, and quickly become heavy at times before changing to sleet at around 8 PM tonight. 3 AM seems to be the magic number for the transition to rain and freezing rain. My concern is primarily that the snow is cold enough where it can create freezing rain even if the temperature is 34 or so...and that there could be a fair amount (0.1-0.25") of ice accumulation. The precipitation will end around 9 AM tomorrow altogether, for about 12 hours. By tomorrow night, however, heavy snow develops once more, except this time the storm will remain all snow...and a major snowstorm is very possible tomorrow night and Thursday morning. In a worst case situation...as much as 10-15" could fall...but I'd expect a more modest 5-10" at this time. Let's see how this plays out...I'll have an update for you once I see the noon model runs today, as they are absolutely key to nailing down whether Thursday will be a moderate snowfall...or the second biggest snowfall of the season thus far.
Either way, the weekend looks fine, but another snow event is likely on Monday. We're way too far out for any details on that, however.
Monday, March 2, 2015
3/2- Not so nice week ahead
Good Monday all-
Well, I got 6" last night, and I think the shoreline was pretty close to that amount, so I'm very happy with how my 4-8" forecast turned out. Anyway, now that we are saying "adios" to Gavin, we may be saying "hola" to Hunter in the near future. Today is not my concern at all, as today is very nice indeed with temps in the mid 30s for most people. Tomorrow, clouds increase and snow develops overnight into Wednesday. I'd expect 3-5" of snow before a changeover to sleet...freezing rain...and eventually regular rain occurs. The regular rain won't melt the snow, however, due to A- the crusting of the snow with freezing rain and B- the extra 3-5" we get before the changeover will melt and C- It will only be between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain, so we won't lose much at all.
Thursday is what I'm concerned about. A very strange setup appears primed and ready to drop a significant snowstorm on southern New England. As temps crash back down, a cold front stalls off the coast and several lows develop along it. While it therefore isn't exactly a classic nor'easter...it could snow like it did yesterday, but for a significantly longer amount of time...thus a STORM WATCH is up as there is now a greater than 25% chance of 4+" of snow on Thursday. I have some numbers in mind for my original forecast...but I'm not ready to post them, because it's quite early, and I'd like some better model agreement before I throw out numbers for you. Either way, it certainly looks like this will be a "Connecticut special" as not many other people in New England will experience this...unless it comes a touch further north, but then we'd get more than I currently expect, which would still mean a CT jackpot.
Thus, while I said previously today we peaked the snowpack, I no longer think that, as the snow will likely be deeper on Thursday.
Today in weather history- March 2, 2009- A nor'easter drops 6-12" on Connecticut, closing down many schools and finishing off a pretty darn snowy 2008-09 winter season, which featured 4 named storms (this one was Demi). Of course, this particular winter is long forgotten as we've had even snowier winters in four of the six years following that!
Well, I got 6" last night, and I think the shoreline was pretty close to that amount, so I'm very happy with how my 4-8" forecast turned out. Anyway, now that we are saying "adios" to Gavin, we may be saying "hola" to Hunter in the near future. Today is not my concern at all, as today is very nice indeed with temps in the mid 30s for most people. Tomorrow, clouds increase and snow develops overnight into Wednesday. I'd expect 3-5" of snow before a changeover to sleet...freezing rain...and eventually regular rain occurs. The regular rain won't melt the snow, however, due to A- the crusting of the snow with freezing rain and B- the extra 3-5" we get before the changeover will melt and C- It will only be between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain, so we won't lose much at all.
Thursday is what I'm concerned about. A very strange setup appears primed and ready to drop a significant snowstorm on southern New England. As temps crash back down, a cold front stalls off the coast and several lows develop along it. While it therefore isn't exactly a classic nor'easter...it could snow like it did yesterday, but for a significantly longer amount of time...thus a STORM WATCH is up as there is now a greater than 25% chance of 4+" of snow on Thursday. I have some numbers in mind for my original forecast...but I'm not ready to post them, because it's quite early, and I'd like some better model agreement before I throw out numbers for you. Either way, it certainly looks like this will be a "Connecticut special" as not many other people in New England will experience this...unless it comes a touch further north, but then we'd get more than I currently expect, which would still mean a CT jackpot.
Thus, while I said previously today we peaked the snowpack, I no longer think that, as the snow will likely be deeper on Thursday.
Today in weather history- March 2, 2009- A nor'easter drops 6-12" on Connecticut, closing down many schools and finishing off a pretty darn snowy 2008-09 winter season, which featured 4 named storms (this one was Demi). Of course, this particular winter is long forgotten as we've had even snowier winters in four of the six years following that!
Sunday, March 1, 2015
3/1- Here comes Gavin...rain midweek too!
Good Sunday all-
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for everyone for 4-6" widespread with locally higher amounts...with which I generally agree. The storm should begin at about 2-4 this afternoon, earlier southeast. There is unlikely to be any mixing whatsoever in this one, and the highest amounts should be either on the immediate shoreline or just east of Hartford. I think someone picks up 8" from this, but it could really be anywhere, so expect to get around 6" as a statewide average...which justifies naming this one Gavin for WFSB, which is the 7th named storm of the winter, inching closer to the record that we shall not get to, as we incredibly remain less than halfway to it (We'd need 8 more named storms to even tie it- 1995-96's Winter Storm Olivia will remain). That said, this continues to have been a truly epic winter that people in New England will be talking about for generations. The snow depth will likely have peaked after the storm tonight, so enjoy it before some gets washed away by a rather severe rainstorm on Wednesday, though the models are trending colder.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for everyone for 4-6" widespread with locally higher amounts...with which I generally agree. The storm should begin at about 2-4 this afternoon, earlier southeast. There is unlikely to be any mixing whatsoever in this one, and the highest amounts should be either on the immediate shoreline or just east of Hartford. I think someone picks up 8" from this, but it could really be anywhere, so expect to get around 6" as a statewide average...which justifies naming this one Gavin for WFSB, which is the 7th named storm of the winter, inching closer to the record that we shall not get to, as we incredibly remain less than halfway to it (We'd need 8 more named storms to even tie it- 1995-96's Winter Storm Olivia will remain). That said, this continues to have been a truly epic winter that people in New England will be talking about for generations. The snow depth will likely have peaked after the storm tonight, so enjoy it before some gets washed away by a rather severe rainstorm on Wednesday, though the models are trending colder.
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