Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be, by a clear mile, the best day so far in 2015 as high temperatures will reach the mid to even upper 50s today. It'll feel great!!! Tomorrow looks fine, as does Friday.
My concern for the weekend is increasing, however. There are currently two model camps...the GFS and the Euro...and, of course, they do not agree remotely. Let's examine both.
The Euro is not a big deal, except for rain developing very late Friday and lasting much of Saturday. The transfer of energy between the two storms happens just too late for any major wintry precip. The storm moves out Sunday, and stalls over Nova Scotia. I think this solution probably gets the storm out too quickly, and I don't like the way it's handling the transfer as storms tend not to redevelop off Boston, but further south. I am therefore more inclined to believe at least the first part of the GFS solution at this time.
The GFS, however, is rather eye-opening, especially since it's been consistent the last few runs. I ask you to please please please take this with a tablespoon of salt, as I can't endorse the extreme solution that follows until I'm 90-95% certain it's possible, let alone will actually occur.
The GFS brings the storm up on Friday night, like the Euro, beginning with mixed precip. It may briefly be all rain south of I-84 (for about 6hrs or so). The storm then tries to move out as temps crash...but it gets blocked in, and a secondary storm system develops behind it, and delivers a crushing snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. Between the two storms...over sixteen inches of snow would fall statewide (If I had to guess, I'd put the combined total of BOTH storms at 17-26" or so. What's even more concerning...is that the first storm on the GFS is dangerously close to being all a heavy wet snow...and if it was, it would be roughly 10-20" followed by another 8-12" on top of it (thus leading to a forecast of 18-32" with locally higher amounts). As I said, this is the extreme (and therefore unlikely) solution, and I don't expect it. That said...it's on the current table of options, and such a storm would undoubtedly be historic...I thus issue a severe storm watch.
Today in weather history- March 11-14, 1888- The big one for Connecticut, as a massive nor'easter stalls right over the 40/70 benchmark and completes two separate loops, dropping heavy snow on Connecticut for some 40 hours, and snowfall reaches 30-60" statewide and drifts as tall as 30 feet. The storm smashes all records, most of which still stand today. In fact, the only storm that even compares to this one is the Blizzard of 2013...and that's only from that narrow stripe from New Haven to Hartford or so that includes Hamden...Wallingford...and Meriden. On this particular date, the storm was located over the Gulf states, and unseasonably warm weather was occuring in the Northeast. The storm began overnight as heavy rain. I don't want to alarm anyone, but does that sound familiar? If not, read the above forecast
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