3/2- Not so nice week ahead

Good Monday all-

Well, I got 6" last night, and I think the shoreline was pretty close to that amount, so I'm very happy with how my 4-8" forecast turned out. Anyway, now that we are saying "adios" to Gavin, we may be saying "hola" to Hunter in the near future. Today is not my concern at all, as today is very nice indeed with temps in the mid 30s for most people. Tomorrow, clouds increase and snow develops overnight into Wednesday. I'd expect 3-5" of snow before a changeover to sleet...freezing rain...and eventually regular rain occurs. The regular rain won't melt the snow, however, due to A- the crusting of the snow with freezing rain and B- the extra 3-5" we get before the changeover will melt and C- It will only be between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain, so we won't lose much at all.

Thursday is what I'm concerned about. A very strange setup appears primed and ready to drop a significant snowstorm on southern New England. As temps crash back down, a cold front stalls off the coast and several lows develop along it. While it therefore isn't exactly a classic nor'easter...it could snow like it did yesterday, but for a significantly longer amount of time...thus a STORM WATCH is up as there is now a greater than 25% chance of 4+" of snow on Thursday. I have some numbers in mind for my original forecast...but I'm not ready to post them, because it's quite early, and I'd like some better model agreement before I throw out numbers for you. Either way, it certainly looks like this will be a "Connecticut special" as not many other people in New England will experience this...unless it comes a touch further north, but then we'd get more than I currently expect, which would still mean a CT jackpot.

Thus, while I said previously today we peaked the snowpack, I no longer think that, as the snow will likely be deeper on Thursday.

Today in weather history- March 2, 2009- A nor'easter drops 6-12" on Connecticut, closing down many schools and finishing off a pretty darn snowy 2008-09 winter season, which featured 4 named storms (this one was Demi). Of course, this particular winter is long forgotten as we've had even snowier winters in four of the six years following that!