Good Monday all-
The big story of this work week is going to be temperatures, as they climb to near 50 by Wednesday!! That may sound great, but the snowpack on the ground will make it a complete disaster as a rapid melt could cause a large amount of black ice on Thursday morning. Other than that...we get a glancing blow from a storm Tuesday PM, with light rain showers. Otherwise...
The weekend could be big trouble, especially the second part. There is big model disagreement in this timeframe, but not on one key thing. A large coastal low will develop, impact New England, and then sit over the same place for about 25 hours. Needless to say...that's a very rare event...but looks highly possible this weekend. The disagreement? One model...the Euro (which has been unusually bad this winter) is forecasting several inches of rain. Another, the GFS (which tends to have a bias to the southeast) has a norlun trough developing over the region and dumping heavy snow from 4 AM Sunday to noon Monday. In such a situation...snowfall totals would probably eclipse twenty inches statewide. The even bigger concern is that the mean solution of the two is a path and a stall directly over the 40/70 benchmark...and that would be a very scary outcome for New England and would probably lead to snowfall that we'd be measuring with a yardstick...and the snow would be heavier than the GFS modeled, which we really do NOT need after the winter we've had.
With that said...I am going to issue a STORM WATCH for Sunday...simply because of the devastating potential of the upper end of the storm possibilities. The odds would probably favor a wintry mix...but still feature several inches of snow...and a large amount of ice as well.
If anyone is wondering about the biggest snowstorm in March in recorded history, then I'll send you on a scavenger hunt...and tell you no more than to look up the dates of March 11-14, 1888. That storm is undoubtedly the biggest snowstorm in Connecticut history.
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