12/31- Say Goodbye to 2014 with cold

Good Wednesday all

Well, the revelers in Times Square tonight are going to be shivering in their boots. It's going to be cold tonight, as in the teens cold. Furthermore, most areas today are not going to reach the freezing point, and highs will likely be stuck in the 20s for the majority of, if not the entirety of, our area. The storm Saturday and Sunday looks to be complicated indeed, with a burst of heavy accumulating snow at the start (and I mean really heavy, there could be as much as half a foot of snow inland), followed by a transition to .1-.25" of ice, then 1-2" of rain, and the snow will be all gone by morning in most areas except for maybe a dusting in places). YUCK!!! Also, a new storm watch may be required for early next week (Tuesday) because a clipper system will move through...but the problem is that with temps as cold as they will be ( a fresh shot of cold moves in after the storm Sunday), it'll be extremely hard to get that one to be anything except all snow...and clippers often intensify off the coast if the water temperature is warm enough (which it is easily- the ocean is really warm right now)...

Anyway, instead of taking a look at history today, I think it's fitting to reminisce about the year it was in weather.

January will be a month that I always remember for the bitter cold. Last winter, it seemed like -1 was pretty mild...and at one point my house in Wallingford got to -9, which is about the coldest I've ever seen it. Additionally, Winter Storms Barbara and Chester brought several inches of snow to the area, which was extremely odd considering how there was so much cold air, the snow was truly entertaining to watch fall as fluff

February- This month will mostly be remembered for Winter Storms Derby & Easton, as well as the month that I started this blog in. Derby was a heavy dumper on the front end, with as much as a foot falling in Fairfield County. Easton was an overpreformer, since the storm was expected to change to rain but never did, remaining all snow and thus exceeded the predicted snowfall for the region, with pockets receiving as much as 15"

March was relatively snow-free, but the final day of the month featured a snowfall of 4" in a narrow band along I-91, with as much as 4" falling in a line from Meriden-Hamden-Wallingford-New Haven, making the commute an absolute nightmare.

April was a relatively mundane month except for a snowfall in the middle of the month which was 2" or so around the 15th, a wake-up call that should be remembered- snow has fallen historically in Connecticut as late as May 12, 1977

The summer months were very uninteresting in the weather world. There was only one big severe day, but it hit big by spawning an EF-1 tornado in Wolcott, which passed through the high school and caused significant damage to the sports field. Additionally, we had a very close call from Hurricane Arthur, which passed over the 40-70 benchmark, and then watched as Hurricane Gonzalo crushed Bermuda as a category 3, their worst storm since 2003's Hurricane Fabian.

November this year will be remembered for the cold weather, as well as the pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Ariana, which dropped as much as a foot of snow in Litchfield County, but vastly underpreformed in other parts of the state.

December was mild and snow-free, with just 0.7" of snow in the month, which is way below normal (obviously). The big story this month was the Christmas Eve rainstorm that ruined any hope of a White Christmas pretty much anywhere on the east coast.

And now, should auld acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind? Should auld acquaintance be forgot and days of Auld Lang Syne!

I wish you the very best New Year's, and wish everyone to have a fantastic time revelling tonight. See you next year, AKA tomorrow morning :)

12/30- Cold for a while, then ice!

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be quite similar to tomorrow in that both days are going to be clear...but very, very cold I'm afraid. Today will be slightly better I think as we will likely at least reach the freezing mark, whereas tomorrow we might not only not get there, but most spots will be hard pressed to get out of the twenties. Lows both nights will be in the low to mid teens, so the revelers in Times Square tomorrow night better bundle up- it will be far from comfortable!! Once we get through New Year's, the attention shifts to the weekend storm.


The STORM WATCH for SNOW AND ICING is from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday. In a rather interesting turn of events, the Euro and GFS flip-flopped last night, with the GFS now showing a chilly solution and the Euro in the Lakes. Obviously, we'll continue to see this for several more days as the models try to hone in on a solution, though I'll target New Year's Day (Thursday) for my final forecast on this thing. For now, expect a moderate icing or snow event on Saturday night as the cold air will likely be locked in place long enough to cause trouble.

Today in weather history- December 30, 2003- Las Vegas, Nevada receives 1-4" of snow as a low moves through the region, the first time in five years Las Vegas picked up the flakes. Why did I choose this event today? Because this event will be repeated tomorrow, and that region is now under a Winter Storm Warning!

12/29- An early-year nor'easter= fun weather week!

Good Monday all-

Well, here we go. The week of New Year's is finally here, and I'll wish everyone the very best in 2015 a few days early here. Now, on to the week's weather. The work week's weather is going to be defined by one word- cold and colder. Very little precipiation is likely this week. Let's take a look...

Today and tomorrow- Sunny and cold, highs in the low 40s

New Year's Eve- Scattered flurries as a reinforcing cold front moves through. No accumulation, highs in the mid 30s.

The Ball Drop (Manhattan's weather)- Clear skies and temps in the high teens or low 20s. BURR!!

Thursday and Friday- Sunny, highs of around 37.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday- The potential exists of a major snowstorm, and I am watching it closely. There is equal chances of a 50 degree rainstorm, and a 20 degree whiteout snowstorm for everyone in Connecticut. For now, I believe the snow solution is a bit more likely...but we'll see what it is. If the storm comes, there could be very large snow accumulations.

As you can see, the big weather story this week is going to be determining exactly what we'll get next weekend, and exactly when it comes. A storm of some kind is very likely and has been modeled for several days, but only recently has there been any chance of snow. In meteorology, there's a saying "the trend is your friend", and it's been trending towards snow. Does that mean it'll happen? Of course not...but it does, perhaps, slightly tilt the odds in that direction.

Today in weather history- December 29, 2004- Tonsontsengal, Mongolia, records a barometric pressure of 32.25" Mercury, or for those non-weather geeks, 1092 mb, the highest in recorded history. (Avg pressure is roughly 1012 mb)

MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST

Well, I don't ordinarily do this, but there has been a massive change to next weekend's storm.

I'm afraid to say that out of absolutely nowhere today, and I mean nowhere, the European model shifted some 250-300 miles EAST from the Great Lakes...which is near the 40/70 benchmark...which is a big snowstorm for everyone in Connecticut. The GFS came in 150 miles further east, putting the storm center over central New York. Needless to say, such a massive shift is raising my eyebrows more than a fair bit, since the Euro almost never does such a drastic single model swing. I'm truly stunned by this. Thus, the storm watch for next Saturday/Sunday changes from being a storm watch for heavy rain to a storm watch for heavy snow or heavy rain. There is around a 50/50 chance now with the model trend of a significant storm of some kind...we just don't know what kind. I'm still reeling from this, and I want to see some more consistency before I bite into the apple completely. Just know that snow is definitely back on the table for next weekend...and I would give as much as a 30% chance for several inches at the present time.

The trend is snow-lovers friend, at the moment. Let's just see how this plays out shall we?

Really brief update

Alright, the STORM WATCH update for today is quite simple- see yesterday's post, as I won't be repetitive and type the exact same thing again. No change has occurred, so I'll simply wish all of you a very pleasant Sunday.

Brief Update

Alright, let's update the storm watch for next weekend.

Wave good-bye to the snow risk that it presented. Literally, it looks completely identical to the storm we had on Christmas Eve, as in 2-3" of rain and very strong wind. It's not that there isn't cold air around, but the track of the low is absolutely killing our snow chances so far this winter. Hopefully that changes, or snow lovers will be suffering a great deal this year. As it stands, there's going to be temps in the high 50s again with torrential rain next Saturday so, although it isn't exactly going to be pleasant, it'll be far less impactful than a giant snowstorm...so there's always that.

Snow lovers, however, should take solace in the fact that we are barely a week into winter. I promise there will be at least one big snowstorm this year, there always is. You just will have to wait a bit longer.

Talk to you tomorrow with more on the storm watch, which will remain due to the fact there certainly is a greater than 25% chance of 2+" of rain. In fact, it's probably darn near 50% at the moment.

12/26- Sunday's threat returns...

Good Friday all-

First, I hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas and got what they asked for! Anyway, today's weather is going to be fantastic, as will tomorrow's. In a very surprising development last night, however, the Sunday storm has made a comeback...as it suddenly shifted a fair amount north, enough to make me believe there is now about a 20% chance of a decent size snowstorm, thus the storm watch may need to go back up later tonight if trends continue. Also, the New Year's storm appears to be coming about 24 hours later than forecast, so I'll delay the STORM WATCH to noon on 1/1/15 to noon the following day for the time being. Otherwise, expect sunny skies and seasonable temps for late December.

Today in weather history- December 26, 2010- Blizzard Adrianne clobbers our region with as much as a foot of snow in places, along with extremely strong winds (with gusts to 50+ in places). This was the first major snowstorm of the 2010-11 Winter Season, which will forever live in infamy in New England weather lore as the January that followed produced more than the average seasonal total in snowstorms, including two monsters (Winter Storms Benedict and Denis, which you'll see discussed in this segment in the next month or so).

Xmas Day!

I'm going to be short and sweet today- I don't want to distract people from their gift opening and other celebrations.

The Sunday STORM WATCH has been cancelled, as the storm will be just too far south to do anything whatsoever. It shouldn't even be cloudy! The New Year's Storm is, naturally, too early to call so I'll leave that STORM WATCH for another few days to see what happens, though I'm not too impressed with that potential either...

I will not do the weather history segment today in honor of Christmas Day. Please take the time you would spend reading or thinking about this portion with your families today and open those presents well. Merry Christmas to all!

I'll have a far more complete update tomorrow morning.

Brief update

Alright, let's take a look at what next week has in store.

I think the odds for truly huge snowstorms are decreasing at the moment. I'll keep the storm watches up for both Sun/Mon and New Year's Eve as a precaution...but it would be pretty tough to get 4+" totals at the moment. It seems the storms will be suppressed to our south at the moment...but it's still early (especially for the one around New Year's), so I promise to keep watch!

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!!!!!!

12/24- STORM WARNING

Good Wednesday all

First off, happy Christmas Eve to everyone, and an early merry Christmas to all who celebrate the next two days. Now, on to what you really want to know if you visited this page- the weather!

Today is going to be a total nightmare. I'm dreaming of a wet and warm Christmas! A flood watch has been issued for the northern counties, but honestly should have been issued for everyone. The rain that started lightly this morning will gradually pick up in intensity throughout the day until it is absolutely pouring by later tonight. The storm will sadly stick around all night tonight, and it will likely still be pouring when we open presents tomorrow morning. When all is said and done, 2-3" of rain are likely, with locally higher amounts in the heavier downpours. Yikes.

The first part of the weekend looks good, but the second half is likely going to be threatened. The first part of Sunday, I'm not too concerned about. What I am concerned about is literally anywhere between Sunday afternoon and when the ball drops on Wednesday night. Somewhere in this time frame, a large coastal low will develop, and with very cold air in place over us, it could lead to a rather large snowstorm for all of Connecticut right down to the shoreline early next week...but the timing is ridiculously uncertain, (The Euro says late Sunday/Monday, and the GFS says Wednesday into Thursday)! Here's what I think it is though...I don't think this is the same storm. Thus, there are two storm threats next week...so my STORM WATCH is doubly issued from 12 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday, and 7 PM Tuesday to the drop of the ball on Wednesday night.

My thoughts and prayers to those effected by the tornadoes yesterday in Mississippi and Louisiana.

Today in weather history- December 24, 2004- Victoria, Texas, of all places, gets lucky when a rare snow event develops in South Texas, coating the ground and giving them their first White Christmas in eighty-six years (that's the first since 1918!!!)

STORM UPDATES

Alright everyone, let's discuss the latest on the two storms I'm tracking.

First- all things still are on track for the 2-3" of rain tomorrow. Don't be shocked if you even hear thunder through the day tomorrow, nor if there is a 50-60mph wind gust. Hopefully this doesn't knock out your power- it probably won't, but I think some unlucky people will have no power for Christmas Day.

Anyhow...remember how earlier today I said..."Anyway, on to late Sunday and early Monday. A cold front will be moving through the region, and a low pressure system will develop along it. The key questions here are simple- 1. How strong will it be and 2. If it's strong enough, where will it track? Since the answer to both of these questions do not appear to favor a significant snowfall for the moment, I'll hold off on issuing a storm watch HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to issue one as soon as tonight. This would be from about noon Sunday to noon Monday. The worst case scenario here would be a major snowstorm, but I'd only give that around a 15-20% chance at the moment, less than the 25% chance I require for a storm watch."

Well, the GFS has come on board, and now that there's some pretty good model agreement on a snow event early next week, and I believe the chances of more 4 or more inches of snow has now exceeded 25% (I'd put it at about 40%), I shall indeed issue a STORM WATCH for 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday...with the large gap due to the uncertain timing of the system. It is far too early for specific details, but the ingredients are coming together to potentially produce a major snowstorm for pretty much everybody right down to the shoreline (NO MIXING THIS TIME for most people, I think!)...so let's find out together.

I still intend to update twice tomorrow as well as on Christmas Day (though I'll be a bit late on Christmas in the AM- I need to open my presents too!!).

All in all, I'm dreaming of a white...New Year's. Snow lovers can hold out hope, as this storm appears to be the most promising since Thanksgiving based purely on the upper level pattern.

12/23- STORM WARNING!

Good Tuesday all-

Well, tomorrow is Christmas Eve, and that means that today is the last day before Christmas Vacation for most!! Unfortunately, you'll only be seeing clouds outside until as late as late Christmas afternoon. Today is going to be rather wet, but it's nothing compared to what we'll experience tomorrow! I'd expect 2-3" rainfall totals widespread tomorrow, and the rain will last until around mid-day on Christmas Morning. Beyond that, fortunately, things look nice until Sunday...but that could be a bit interesting, as you'll see below here.

Anyway, on to late Sunday and early Monday. A cold front will be moving through the region, and a low pressure system will develop along it. The key questions here are simple- 1. How strong will it be and 2. If it's strong enough, where will it track? Since the answer to both of these questions do not appear to favor a significant snowfall for the moment, I'll hold off on issuing a storm watch HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to issue one as soon as tonight. This would be from about noon Sunday to noon Monday. The worst case scenario here would be a major snowstorm, but I'd only give that around a 15-20% chance at the moment, less than the 25% chance I require for a storm watch.


Today in weather history- December 23, 1994- A monster storm develops along the East Coast and strikes New York City, producing brutal conditions in our region. As much as 4 inches of rain fall, and winds gust to over 70 mph!!! There remains debate to this day as to whether this storm really was just a nor'easter...there is certainly an argument to be made that the storm was actually tropical enough to be called a hurricane even upon landfall in New York. In fact, modern data suggests it probably was, since the sole criteria used to determine the fact that it wasn't a tropical cyclone was that the size of the wind radius (the distance from the center the winds were found) was 150 miles, which is big, granted, but Sandy had a wind radius of over 1,100 miles. Thus, it probably was a hurricane upon landfall in New York. Had it been named, it would have been Hurricane Helene.

12/22- Here comes a miserable christmas eve

Good Monday everyone- the last full day before the Christmas break for many!

Today is going to be the second best day of the week, but unfortunately that's not saying much at all. Mostly cloudy skies likely prevail today with some showers, and the same can be said for tomorrow (though tomorrow's showers should be more widespread). Christmas Eve still looks utterly miserable, but now it gets even worse because it looks like it will last around Christmas morning. The storm finally moves on late Thursday before Friday and Saturday are pretty good, but a nor'easter moves in Sunday, but what we get from that (if anything) is still very much up in the air.

Let's look ahead-

Today & Tomorrow- Scattered showers/flurries. No accumulation. Highs in the low 40s.

Christmas Eve (Steve's clunker of the week)- Pouring rain, strong wind, tree limbs down and power outages possible. 2-4" of rain possible. Highs in the mid-50s (Yes, really!)

Christmas Day- Pouring rain in the morning, clearing slowly through the day and dry by mid afternoon. Highs in the mid-40s

Friday/Saturday (Steve's picks of the week)- Sunny with highs in the high 30s/low 40s

Sunday- Heavy rain/snow possible. I won't forecast highs yet as this also depends on storm track.

Today in weather history- December 22, 1993- Somehow, 5 inches of snow fall in Turin, NY...in 20 minutes. This works out to an average of 15" an hour...or one inch every four minutes!!!

STORM WATCH- Xmas disaster

Alright, all systems still go for the massive rainstorm on Wednesday, and I suspect that there's no dodging this one ;). Sadly, this means you should prepare for gusty winds and heavy rain on this day, which is a total nightmare for travelers...unlucky! I'll go with 2-3" of rain widespread!! It also looks like it'll pour on Christmas morning.

On another note, some areas may see as much as 2" of snow today from ocean effect flakes, and I already have a moderate accumulation outside my house on the Wallingford/North Haven line.

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Alright, just keeping it short & sweet- no change in forecast from yesterday. Still expecting a torrential rainstorm on Wednesday featuring 2-4" of rain...thus...

The odds of a White Christmas this year are 2%. The only chance is if the Weds storm ends as back end flurries, and frankly I doubt it will.

Talk to you tomorrow!

12/19- Boring Xmas approach, xmas eve is awful!

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE- WE MADE IT!

Well, unfortunately for many, it's a pretty good bet that those dreaming of a White Christmas will not be getting their wish this year, but those dreaming of a wet Christmas (I doubt that's anyone) likely will. The weather until Christmas Eve looks tranquil with very little precipitation and highs in the 40s each day. Wednesday's storm looks extremely wet. My early call would be 2-4" of rain with temps as high as 60 and thunderstorms...not exactly the kind of storm anyone wants on Christmas Eve. Before my snow lovers go crying out the door this morning, though, it is important to note that this storm will flip the pattern to very, very cold, and with a negative NAO developing, it is likely that a very snowy January is on the way, and the forecast all autumn has been a tranquil December followed by a snowy 3 month period at the start of 2015. Remember, no snow fell in 2010-11 until December 26, but it was followed by the snowiest January on record, and second snowiest winter on record in Connecticut. I most certainly am not expecting that extreme, but it would be fun to see that happen! Either way, winter doesn't even start until Sunday, so relax, I promise there will be at least one or two big storms this year!

Today in weather history- December 19, 1967- Somehow, Flagstaff, AZ manages to get two snowstorms in less than a week...that are so extreme that eighty-six inches of snow covered the ground on this date! That means that both storms dropped about as much snow as 2013's Blizzard Charlotte did here in southern Connecticut. Yikes!

Evening update- Euro East, GFS stays

Alright-

Time for the update on the storm coming on Christmas Eve. Let's start with the Euro, which came a solid 50-75 miles east on the 12z run, which is an interesting occurrence because it actually moves the rain/snow line as close as around Albany...but not close enough. The GFS remains squarely over Michigan and Lake Michigan...which doesn't really help us for snow lovers either. Thus, I'll say the same as I said this morning, because there really is no need to change my thinking at this time. Talk to you in the morning- enjoy your sleep!

7 days to Christmas


14 days to 2015!

12/18- Pretty nice until Sunday...

Good Thursday all-

A STORM WATCH is in effect for Christmas Eve, but for rain at the moment. I'll get there in a minute, however...

First off, today is going to be just fine, with partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 40s- in short, very similar to yesterday. The same goes for tomorrow and Saturday, but we run into some trouble with a light wintry mix Sunday, and then showers on Tuesday and then...

An absolutely monsterous storm will make an impact on us Wednesday. It's going to be huge. The problem for snow lovers is that the path appears to be in the Great Lakes, which means entirely rain. There may be some snow mixed in on the back end, but it'll be really tough to get accumulation, and I'm betting against it at the moment. Instead, we get stuck with wind-driven pouring rain on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with 3-5" of rain a possibility. Thus, it is important to watch, since that could cause a travel nightmare in the region.

I'll have more info on this one later tonight.

Today in weather history- December 18, 2009- Winter Storm Albert begins a path that eventually ends up producing a widespread snowfall in Connecticut, the first of a rather mundane 2009-10 winter season. Totals exceed one foot in parts of the state, and totals generally were between 8-12" for most.

12/17- Where did the storm go?

Good Wednesday all-

First things first- the storm watch is done, not because it is going out to sea, but more because it simply won't exist at all. Sure the models had been trending weaker, but it's highly unusual for a storm that was rather significant just a few days ago to mysteriously disappear just two days later. Otherwise, dry conditions with highs in the 40s are likely until Christmas Eve, when a storm is brewing, but it's way too early to tell what it is going to be, though early indications suggest it may be rain, but I certainly wouldn't bank on that a week out.

Today in weather history- December 17, 2008- In a true meteorological anomaly, Las Vegas, NV somehow manages to receive 3.6" of snow, closing the local highways and schools. This was the biggest snowfall in the area since 1979...when 7.5" of snow somehow managed to fall on the area (I'd love to see weather maps from that day!)

12/16- Singing in the rain

Good Tuesday all-

Unfortunately, here comes some rain. The storm will begin late this afternoon with scattered showers and flurries, but the brunt of the storm will come through overnight while we sleep, so it shouldn't be too impactful of an event. Sure there may be some icy patches tomorrow morning, but I really am not too concerned about it. Otherwise, my forecast from yesterday holds. The storm watch for Sunday will remain in place today due to the uncertainty of the forecast, though it appears to be a weaker system than originally believed, and it may not be enough to warrant such an alert. Nevertheless, I'll hold it as a safeguard in case something changes today.

Today in weather history- December 16, 1811- New Madrid, MO is rocked by one of the worst, if not the worst, earthquake in US history. The quake is estimated to have measured stronger than 8 on the Richter Scale, and rang church bells as far away as Charleston, SC- and even caused the Mississippi River to run in reverse for a time. Fortunately, nobody is hurt because it occurs over a very sparsely populated area at the time. Such an event would be far more impactful in the modern world.

STORM WATCH issued for Sunday

Hello-

Well, I said I'd need to see a bit of a northward trend with the computer models today. About half of them are now closer, with fairly light amounts, with the Euro way out to sea. Despite the fact that I'd generally trust the Euro in these situations...it isn't worth not letting people know of the possibility of a storm. Thus, I'll issue a storm watch and see where things go from here. It's still 5.5 days out, so about a trillion different things could happen (anywhere from rain to a blizzard to bright sunshine are possible). If I had to guess now, I'd guess widespread 2-5" totals, but that is way too early to say for sure. That is not a forecast, just a representation of roughly what is appearing now. Enjoy the week, and I'll update you in the morning.

12/15- A good week, for the most part

Good Monday all-

Well, it's a brand new week here, and the last full week for pretty much everybody before the Christmas Vacation, the unofficial halfway point of the school year (though it actually falls in mid-January). In terms of weather, we'll finally see some sunshine today for the first time in oh-so-long, especially for those who live west of I-91. The only true trouble spot this week is tomorrow night and Wednesday, but it's rain, fortunately for the majority of people, and it could be a moderate amount (.1"-.25" perhaps), yet really shouldn't be very impactful at all. There is still a snowstorm threat for Saturday night and Sunday, but it doesn't appear particularly likely at this time, so I'll hold off on declaring a storm watch, but I will if it comes any closer whatsoever (which could happen as early as this evening if I see something change, and that's very possible 5 or 6 days out).

Let's look at the week-

Today- (Steve's pick of the week) Sunny and in the 40s

Tomorrow- Rain developing in the afternoon, highs in the higher 40s

Wednesday- AM showers, PM sun

Thursday, Friday, Saturday- Partly cloudy, temps in the high 30s or low 40s

Sunday- (Steve's clunker of the week)- watching the offshore nor'easter. If it comes, heavy snow and strong wind would be possible, but it isn't exactly too likely at the moment. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and highs in the mid-30s anyway, so not exactly pleasant.

Today in weather history- December 15, 1989- A nor'easter drops as much as ten inches of snow on our region, while another low pressure center over the Great Lakes nails Lake Erie's southern shore in Northeastern Ohio with as much as two feet of the white stuff.

12/12- Two chances for a white christmas

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE- WE MADE IT!

Well, today is going to be the nicest day in quite some time. which isn't really saying much though. It'll be mostly cloudy today, certainly, but it is likely to remain primarily dry. Fortunately, there really are no major storms in sight. A clipper system for the middle of next week is worth watching (primarily just to make sure it doesn't develop off the coast, which has caused the majority of the unexpected snowstorms over the years), but is unlikely to have much of an impact. Otherwise, we can expect quiet weather with sunny skies and temps in the 40s literally every single day for the next week or more.

There are two chances for a White Christmas this year, with one coming a week from tomorrow and the other coming on Christmas Day (!). The first appears to be trending towards rain for the moment, but it's so far out there's really no point in even trying to forecast what it will be. My belief is that the one for Christmas Day is more likely to be significant, but it's 13 days away, so I won't even begin to forecast for that one!

Today in weather history- December 12, 2010- The weight of snow on the roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis (then the home of the Vikings), causes it to collapse, causing severe damage to the stadium, forcing the postponement of the game, which would later be played in Detroit. At the time, who would have guessed that that kind of thing would happen in our backyard just over a month later?

12/11- Some snow!

Good Thursday all-

Well, some of us are waking up to snow this morning, and it's causing some schools in northern CT to delay this morning, which include Winchester, Bristol, Waterbury, etc. Fortunately, the snow won't have much of an impact in southern Connecticut, and therefore I don't expect delays to be declared for any areas where they haven't been already. Moving forward from today, the weather looks downright pleasant for most of the next 7 days. The exception to this rule is Wednesday, which appears similar to today with some snow around as a clipper system moves through. The next two chances for a major snowstorm appear to be a week from Saturday and Christmas Day (!), so those days are worth watching, but we are obviously miles too far out to predict anything at all in regards to these (I won't even guess on Saturday until Wednesday!)


Today in weather history- December 11, 1985- For the first time since February 2, 1939, Phoenix, AZ records 0.1" of snow!!! This was thanks to a massive trough which dug down and caused record lows among many locations in the Rocky Mountains and southwest. Parts of Wyoming went down to -25! Yikes! Certainly not something you see everyday, and memorable when you do!

12/10- Cold & Snowy

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a rather unpleasant day, as it is going to be quite cold with snow on and off through the day today. To make matters worse, tonight it could accumulate one to two inches if you are unlucky enough to get trapped under one of the snow bands. It's a very tough forecast, purely because it's really tough to get good wrap-around moisture from a nor'easter, and it is very difficult to forecast where that one area that does get it will be. Either way, the weekend looks spectacular, and I wouldn't change anything of my plans for those days based on weather. The next storm threat appears to be sometime next week around Tuesday or Wednesday, but even the type of storm (clipper vs nor'easter) is still very much up in the air, so I wouldn't worry too much about that yet.

Today in weather history- December 10, 2002- In Corona, Greece, following a strong thunderstorm, a shower of...small fish falls on the area. This is usually the result of a waterspout or a tornado, and is not particularly unusual following such an event. The fish were sucked up into the funnel and deposited in Corona after they couldn't be held by the cloud (probably quite quickly!)

12/9- Schools delayed for many

Good Tuesday all-

Well, remember when I said this storm would have some nasty surprises? This is one of them, as it's pouring outside, but it's only 30 degrees at my house in Wallingford, so it's freezing rain and miserable outside. Granted, it isn't a total shock- the signs were there last evening and Winter Weather Advisories were issued, but this is a bit more significant than most people were thinking. This has lead to tons of crashes this morning, but it should melt by later this morning as temps go above freezing, so we are seeing most schools delay this morning instead of close. Anyhow, by the time this is said and done, two to three inches of a cold rain will have fallen, with 40+ mph wind gusts in places, and it'll just simply be an absolutely miserable day. The question will then shift to tomorrow morning as to how much wrap-around moisture we get from this storm as temps flop it over to snow. It is, however, very tough to get anything significant, and I doubt very much that there will be any accumulation (It's probably no more than a 15% chance of an inch or so). Scattered snow will last until Thursday evening, and the weekend looks cold and dry, with Monday looking fantastic with sunny skies and highs near 50. Also, there's a Wind Advisory for the shoreline, except New London County, where there is a High Wind Warning, so it'll blow your hats off too!

Today in weather history- December 9, 1786- A second snowstorm in less than a week pounds New England, dropping one to two feet of snow just a day after a 6" storm, and four days after another one to two foot storm. The end result? Up to four feet of snow were on the ground at once in parts of Massachusetts, which is 8" more than the snow that accumulated in the hardest hit areas after Blizzard Charlotte/Nemo in 2013.

PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY TODAY- THE ROADS ARE HORRIBLE!!!

12/8- STORM WARNING for heavy rain

Good Monday all-

Well this is, without a doubt, among the trickiest weeks of weather forecasting in my life. There are so many things that could bust forecasts, but let's start with what we know- today is going to be just fine, with mostly cloudy skies and temps in the 40s, a typical December day.

Tomorrow, we are pretty sure that a massive rainstorm is on the way, and thus the STORM WARNING is in effect from late tonight until midnight between Tues/Weds. Beyond that, it will change to snow. The question then becomes how much precipitation wraps around to fall in our region on the back end, since there could be a significant snowfall in portions of the state, particularly the northern third or so and Litchfield County. This storm and moisture will then be around us most of the week...but it appears as though it will clear in time for the weekend.

Today (Steve's rather not-so-great pick of the week)- Mostly cloudy, temps in the 40s

Tomorrow- (Steve's big time clunker of the week)- Torrential cold rainstorm with strong wind and 2-4" of rain statewide. Highs in the low 40s

Weds, Thurs, Fri- On and off snow showers. Some accumulation is possible in the higher elevations. Highs in the upper 30s or low 40s

Sat/Sun- Clearing, temps in the upper 40s.

Today in weather history- December 8, 1892- Gay Hill, Texas, achieves a tremendous feat by receiving a whopping half foot of freezing rain. The impacts that would have on the modern world is downright tremendous, since the majority of cities can be shut down for days with just 0.5" of ice, let alone twelve times that.

12/7- STORM WATCH

Alright, as promised, here's the latest on Tuesday's nor'easter.

I think it'll be mostly rain, if not simply because it would be extremely hard for it to be the other way. Sure, it'll start as a mix, and likely end as some snow, but I think it'll predominantly be an ice-cold rainstorm all day Tuesday. Vermont and New Hampshire, on the other hand, are looking at 20+" of snow from this system...so we dodge the bullet there. We also may get some snow on the back end as the storm wraps up in the Gulf of Maine, but it is notoriously difficult to get any accumulation when that happens. Either way, today is likely the key day of model runs. What it is by the time we go to sleep tonight is what it is going to be, so I'll update with my final call around 8 PM this evening, so feel free to read then!

12/6- STORM WATCH UPDATE

Happy weekend!

I'll write a brief update here with the latest on the storm next week. It's going to be rain. That's the bottom line...for Tuesday. The problem that I'm facing now is that the storm looks like it may stick around...all week! In fact, all computer models now change precipitation over to snow Wednesday, and feature a light but steady snow for three full days, which could result in a decent accumulation if that came to pass. Either way, keep this in mind- this is a true storm to remember with the rain. It's one of the more powerful nor'easters you can get, as a phase will capture the storm south of the region, and the low will likely pass either directly over or just east of us. Too early for me to predict any specific accumulations upon the flip-back, but it shouldn't be more than 6" or so.

I'll update again tonight.

12/5- STORM WATCH- Get ready for a soaker

Happy Friday everyone- we made it through another week!

Today itself is going to be just fine...until the evening hours. Unfortunately, around that time, a major rainstorm is going to move in. Tomorrow appears to be an absolute complete and total washout with one to two inches of rain possible as a large low pressure moves off the east seaboard. Sunday looks fine, and then we get to the good juicy stuff Monday.

The Euro is now painting what I feel is a far more realistic scenario than the one yesterday afternoon, as well as delaying the system's entry until late Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS is now showing a much weaker system but still an impactful one (a wintry mix all day Tuesday, but it is more of a frontal appearance than a nor'easter). Now the big question is precipitation type.

The Euro, despite being warm, is showing several inches of snow on the back end, as the storm stalls near Boston, which would bring wind out of the north and thus change over the precipitation on the back end on the order of 3-6" statewide, while the northwest hills could get significantly more since it could stay mostly, if not all, snow throughout the storm. For now, I'll say a wintry mix with strong winds for Monday night into Tuesday, changing to all snow late Tuesday. This is subject to change...a 30-40 mile jog east delivers a blizzard to everyone in Connecticut.

The storm is still over the Pacific Ocean, and we won't be able to be confident about anything until it hits California this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Today in weather history- December 5, 2003- A massive nor'easter clobbers New England, delivering one to two feet of snow for everyone, including a record 47" for Pinkham Notch, NH. This is a situation that, if the Euro jogs 40 miles east, could verify once more...

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Good evening everyone-

Well, we know one more thing tonight than we did yesterday. There is going to be a huge storm nearby early next week for sure. The GFS shifted so far west that it almost mimics the Euro now. The timing is also pretty likely going to be Monday afternoon through early Wednesday, thanks to the Greenland block being in place during this period, causing a slow-moving storm. The question now becomes precip type. I have to lean towards rain or a wintry mix at the current time, but if it was snow, it would be an epic storm with several feet (and it could be quite memorable even as modeled- it's a true monster setup). For now, I'll say heavy rain, with sleet mixing in during the storm at times. Northern Connecticut, though, could be in for quite a snowstorm. Someone in New England may well be measuring in feet early next week...we'll see who, if anyone, that is later. Enjoy your weekend.

Stats-

Odds of 2+" of rain- 60%

Odds of 3+" of snow- 35%

Odds of 6+" of snow- 25%

Odds of one foot of snow- 25%

Odds of two feet of snow- 10%

Odds of more than two feet of snow- 5%

12/4- STORM WATCH for Monday

Good Thursday all-

Well, here comes the vacillating models on a nor'easter. The GFS is so far out to sea that the weather would be sunny, whereas the Euro is forecasting a significant snowstorm, but not nearly as significant as last night (I'd say it's in the 5-10" ballpark now, which certainly seems possible and more likely than the extreme solution from yesterday. To boot, it was literally showing hurricane conditions...that won't happen, ever!) and is significantly further out to sea, but not far out enough for a miss, passing about 20-30 miles east of that oh-so-important 40/70 benchmark. Either way, the storm watch will stay in place today as we try to figure out the computer models. Meanwhile, the weekend looks like a nightmarish total washout for both days, I'm afraid. It may start as a wintry mix for literally an hour or two tomorrow night, but no accumulation will happen before it turns into a massive rainstorm for Saturday, which is associated with the same low that will spawn the nor'easter for Monday.

I'll have more on the potential winter storm later tonight around 6 when all of today's model runs are finished.

Today in weather history- December 4, 1964- A major ice storm strikes the northeast, as one and a half inches of freezing rain accumulates in portions of Massachusetts and New York, knocking out power to some 80,000 homes, some of which would not regain electricity for five days. That's really painful in December!

STORM WATCH ISSUED

Good evening!

Well, it's time to be in storm watch mode as we follow a nor'easter for early next week. The timing is yet to be nailed down, but Monday and Tuesday could both be impacted. It's a model war developing again. The European model, which pretty much nailed the 11/26 storm, is not far away from (maybe 15 miles or so) forecasting nearly thirty inches of snow for everyone in Connecticut, blizzard conditions for everyone in New England, and a very similar setup to what we saw in February 2013. DO NOT, and I repeat DO NOT take this literally, but it shows the potential is there for a rather large snow event early next week. Also, there may be an entirely different nor'easter nearby a week from tomorrow. There is a slim possibility, albeit a very slim one, of the oh-so-rare double whammy...that would be something to write home about if both made a direct hit. Either way, we need to focus on Monday and Tuesday for the major nor'easter threat first. Thursday will wait for another time. The STORM WATCH I am issuing will run from 8 AM Monday to midnight Wednesday AM, but that is just to encompass all possibilities and will be revised as the models come into agreement.

Will we get nothing at all, or walloped with feet of snow twice next week? Who knows....but I'll keep you posted!

12/3- A wet weekend

Good Wednesday all-

Well, today isn't starting out too well, but we expected this, so it's not a big deal. The weather should clear up by later this afternoon and be at least partly, if not primarily, sunny. This weather will hold through tomorrow and most of Friday before the next round of precip moves through. Unfortunately, the weekend right now look to be a total washout. A slow-moving low will move off the coast late Friday and drift southwards. This will cause the rare event of the low giving us rain, moving away, and then becoming a nor'easter worth watching, though it appears it'll be too close for snow, instead delivering us another bout of torrential rain early next week. It's extremely lucky that this is early December though, as this would have been a truly monster snowstorm if there was more cold air in place as there may be in February, for example. Either way, the storm will finally clear by Tuesday, and the middle of next week should be fine. Beyond that...who knows? Anyone can guess weather a week out and be nearly as accurate as forecasts beyond the 8 day timeframe or so.

Today in weather history- December 3, 1992- A nor'easter drops copius amounts of heavy wet snow across New England. The jackpot this time was Monterey, MA, with a what-now-appears-to-be-paltry 19 inches of snow. Incredibly, this was the highest snowfall total anywhere in Massachusetts in the five previous years. Now, Connecticut has seen snowfall totals exceed 19" a whopping three times in the last four winters (January 2011's Winter Storms Benedict & Denis and February 8-9, 2013's Blizzard Charlotte).

12/2- Wintry mix tonight

Good Tuesday all-

Today in and of itself is going to be just fine, but unfortunately tonight a wintry mix is likely to develops towards 5 or 6 tonight, but it should quickly transition to rain this evening for most of our area unless I have readers north of, say, Hartford, in which case I'd be very concerned about icy roads in the morning as that portion of the state could transition to freezing rain and/or sleet for a bit tonight as well before making the transition. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks very uninteresting, with the chance for a flurry or shower existing only on Friday and Sunday mornings.

Today in weather history- December 2, 1925- An incredibly strange event- a Tropical Storm strikes Florida and causes significant damage before coming up the coast and bringing tropical storm conditions to southern New England! Winds gusted as high as 60mph on Block Island as a result of the storm. Needless to say, this is amazingly rare, since the water temperature is so cold in our area by now, but it goes to show that the weather is a fickle beast and to expect the unexpected!

12/1- Pretty boring week

Good Monday everyone- I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving!

You'll be rewarded for getting through the weekend with a rather uninteresting week in the weather world, except for Wednesday morning. Quite honestly, I am not exactly stoked about anything anytime in the near future weather wise, as no nor'easters are in sight. Let's take a look at the next week shall we?

Today- (Steve's pick of the week)- Nice and clear, highs in the high 40s

Tuesday- Increasing clouds, PM wintry mix develops

Wednesday- AM icing possible with a wintry mix. Some school delays are possible, and highs in the low to mid 40s.

Thursday to Sunday- Identical weather of mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 40s.

Also worth noting- Yesterday marked the end of the 2014 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. The Atlantic, with only eight named storms (albeit six hurricanes), was the least active since 1994, whereas the Pacific experienced its' fourth most active season of all time with  a whopping twenty-two named storms, sixteen hurricanes, and nine major hurricanes!!

Here we go- Thanks for your patience.

December 1, 1896- In Kipp, MT, an insane warm front raises temperatures 34 degrees...in 7 minutes and 80 degrees in just a few hours! Remarkably, it causes a 31 inch snowpack to completely melt in just 12 hours!

Happy December everyone- May you have a fantastic holiday season!