STORM UPDATES

Alright everyone, let's discuss the latest on the two storms I'm tracking.

First- all things still are on track for the 2-3" of rain tomorrow. Don't be shocked if you even hear thunder through the day tomorrow, nor if there is a 50-60mph wind gust. Hopefully this doesn't knock out your power- it probably won't, but I think some unlucky people will have no power for Christmas Day.

Anyhow...remember how earlier today I said..."Anyway, on to late Sunday and early Monday. A cold front will be moving through the region, and a low pressure system will develop along it. The key questions here are simple- 1. How strong will it be and 2. If it's strong enough, where will it track? Since the answer to both of these questions do not appear to favor a significant snowfall for the moment, I'll hold off on issuing a storm watch HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to issue one as soon as tonight. This would be from about noon Sunday to noon Monday. The worst case scenario here would be a major snowstorm, but I'd only give that around a 15-20% chance at the moment, less than the 25% chance I require for a storm watch."

Well, the GFS has come on board, and now that there's some pretty good model agreement on a snow event early next week, and I believe the chances of more 4 or more inches of snow has now exceeded 25% (I'd put it at about 40%), I shall indeed issue a STORM WATCH for 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday...with the large gap due to the uncertain timing of the system. It is far too early for specific details, but the ingredients are coming together to potentially produce a major snowstorm for pretty much everybody right down to the shoreline (NO MIXING THIS TIME for most people, I think!)...so let's find out together.

I still intend to update twice tomorrow as well as on Christmas Day (though I'll be a bit late on Christmas in the AM- I need to open my presents too!!).

All in all, I'm dreaming of a white...New Year's. Snow lovers can hold out hope, as this storm appears to be the most promising since Thanksgiving based purely on the upper level pattern.