1/29- A touch of snow

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE

Today is going to be near 40, but snowy at times as a clipper system interacts with a coastal storm well off the coast. The result is one of those "Norlun Troughs", which could enhance snowfall rates a fair bit. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if someone saw upwards of 2-3" of snow today...but that's probably as high as we can get because there simply is not all that much moisture to work with. Unfortunately, that can be enough to snarl the roads. The weekend looks pretty warm and dry. Next week, however, looks truly spectacularly warm with highs solidly in the 50s...but with pouring rain on Wednesday. Sadly, the fun cannot last because after next week...the winter really begins in earnest perhaps with much of February looking rather snowy at this time.

Today in weather history- January 29, 1780- The temperature in Hartford drops to an absolutely ridiculous -20, which would be the all-time record low if records were kept back then. That said, it causes New York Harbor to completely freeze over for over a month...and thick enough to allow a cannon to be dragged across it to Staten Island by British troops fighting in the Revolutionary War!

1/28- Nice today, snow tomorrow

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a very typical late January day- temps will be in the mid to upper 30s with bright sunshine for the most part, though a few clouds are possible, especially in the afternoon. Tomorrow, a burst of light snow is possible, but it should not cause much of an issue on the roads except for briefly reduced visibility- it simply will not be heavy enough to accumulate.

The weekend and the first few days of next week look fine, but somewhere around Wednesday we'll be dealing with the dreaded inside runner, which will probably deposit one to two inches of rain- always unpleasant. This, however, is a storm that will probably change the pattern, and the rest of February (although it's early to know for certain) looks cold and snowy.

Today in weather history- January 28, 1922- The legendary "knickerbocker" storm drops a whopping 28" of snow on Washington, DC, immoblizing the entire city. Tragically, it obtained its' nickname because the theater of the same name had its' roof collapse on an audience full of people, killing 96.

1/27- Sleepy weather

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be just fine (although some models indicate some scattered snow flurries are possible this morning), with temperatures in the mid-40s with sunshine most of the day. In fact, of the next 7 days, all but one are dry...with the only possible precipitation occurring on Friday, when a period of light snow is possible from a clipper system. The end result of that will be nothing more than a nuisance...with maybe an inch of snow in the unluckier areas. I do not believe it will have an impact on schools though, especially considering what we've had to deal with the last several winters here in Connecticut. Warm temperatures will also prevail- we'll be looking at 50 degree weather a few times in the early portions of next week!

Today in weather history- January 27, 1989- Alaska gets absolutely frozen thanks to a low pressure system sending air in from the arctic circle. The town of Fairbanks does not even get above -40...for the sixth consecutive day. Most remarkable though is that Tanana, AK drops to -76, with wind chill values below -100(!!). That, my friends, is cold- even for Alaska!!

1/26- 600th post- The Weather falls asleep

Good Tuesday all-

After the excitement of a surprise blizzard last weekend, the weather has fallen entirely asleep- we expect slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions for most of the next six days. The one exception could be tonight, where scattered patches of wintry mix could snarl up the roads a small amount for the morning commute tomorrow, but I do not expect any impacts on schools.

There's a coastal storm on Friday...but it looks like a rather comfortable miss for our area...unless you believe the Canadian, but even that is a miss (though it's much closer, and a glancing blow for Cape Cod and the Islands). I wouldn't worry too much about it at this time, but if something changes you'll know (I'd put the odds of a big snowstorm in the 5-10% range at this time)

Otherwise, enjoy your day!

Today in weather history- January 26, 1978- A monster blizzard clobbers the midwestern US, with Ohio and Michigan particularly hard hit, experiencing 20-40" of snow, twenty-foot drifts and 100(!)mph wind gusts.

1/25- Calm Week?

Good Monday everyone-

Today is going to be a day that is just fine- highs will be in the 30s with mostly sunny skies. Additionally, tomorrow should be pretty decent as well, although rain showers (if you can believe it) move in during the afternoon hours to aid in the melting process, but still...not much is going to happen of any significance until (potentially) Friday.

On Friday, a coastal storm will develop along the southeast coast. At this time, it looks to be an extraordinarily narrow miss...however...any jog to the west would result in a colossal snowstorm for New England...so certainly it bears watching. That said...the odds are less than 25% at this time...so I'll hold off on a storm watch unless models begin a westward movement.

If Friday's storm misses, the next chance for a large storm appears to be somewhere in the vicinity of the middle of next week, so we'd have a bit of a break!

Today in weather history- January 25, 1965- Alta, UT is in the middle of a raging snowstorm that ultimately proceeds to drop an incredible 105"(!) on the city- a state record for Utah.

Enjoy your day!

1/24- Blizzard Anna, One for the Ages

Good Sunday everyone-

If someone told me yesterday that NYC would receive a higher amount of snow than DC, I would have been sceptical in the extreme, but that's what happened. Amounts in Connecticut appear to have peaked at thirteen inches in Durham, but I'm pretty darned close at my house in Naugatuck with at least eleven inches of snow.

One for the ages is over...as is a forecasting nightmare that I will remember forever.

That said--we may be in trouble again on Friday...though out to sea is a more likely scenario at this time...it's far from certain...and it could be big if everything comes together.

1/23- SEVERE STORM WARNING- Last second North Jog yields Epic Blizzard

Good Saturday all-

A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for the immediate shoreline. The rest of Southern CT is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Northern parts of the state have a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is also out.

Well, if you were with me late last night, you know that the models shifted too far north...and came into agreement with the NAM, dropping tons of snow on Connecticut. The 6z GFS, for example, which just came out...wants to drop 12-20" on Southern Connecticut. Since the wind will also be strong...I am forced to issue just the second SEVERE STORM WARNING in my blog's history...and the first since Blizzard Colbie/Juno last year.

My snowfall map from last night is almost exactly what I'm thinking will happen today...so feel free to just look at that (my other computer has a dead battery so I cannot make another one at this time). Regardless, please stay safe and enjoy the show. It's 1996 all over again- everything so identical including that last second jog north.

Blizzard Anna is going to be a very memorable storm...for a bunch of reasons. We don't get blizzards very often, so take some time today to watch the snow fall and appreciate the incredible force that is mother nature.

SEVERE STORM WARNING- 2ND IN BLOG HISTORY- UNDERDOG REIGNS SUPREME- MASSIVE CT BLIZZARD AHEAD

Alright,

Bad news for those who went to bed without looking at the models.

The 0z GFS is actually even further north than the 18z, dropping widespread totals over a foot into southern Connecticut. On that note...I am issuing a severe storm warning for blizzard conditions and the map I showed earlier holds...with locally higher amounts. I'd not be shocked if someone in CT wound up with two feet...depending on where the heavier bands wind up. That said, the WWA's really need to be upgraded...and they will be soon.

The map could change up a bit in the coming runs...especially if the storm bumps up north further.

That said, make no mistake- this is a BLIZZARD, and you can not ever take them lightly. Be wary of the winds, stay warm and comfortable, and enjoy watching one to two feet of fluff pile up in southern CT...and then shoveling it also





Also, congrats on a tremendous forecasting victory NAM! Take your bows- you deserve it.



The GFS snowfall map. The problem? Ratios will be closer to 15:1 than 10:1. Thus, multiply all numbers by 1.5. For example, that 15" total we see in Danbury is actually closer to 2ft because of the 'fluff' factor. Note how much of CT is between six and ten inches...which would average out to nine to fifteen inches...almost exactly my forecast, which is why it is what it is. Note that another jog north could introduce widespread two foot totals into Connecticut.

Uh oh- NAMARAMA Ding Dong...time to sound the "blizzard" bells

Oh boy, I'm sure this will be popular so late in the game.

I'm afraid that the GFS has actually done something you rarely see- it's actually caved to the lowly NAM, which means that we're suddenly in very serious trouble in Connecticut. It's shifted 20-30 miles north again...and this time, it's too far...and so now those snowfall totals are quite possibly about to go through the roof. In fact...considering what most TV channels are forecasting...it may be nearly double that in the morning, and the Winter Weather Advisory will become a Blizzard Warning...just speechless.

As for totals, I have to be careful here because it is only one model run...however, if trends continue, then this is my new map I'm afraid...



What the GFS did was put out- taken literally, 6" of snow all the way to the 84 corridor...with a maximum of about one foot along the shoreline. The problem is that it assumes a 10:1 ratio, but it will actually be much higher than that- probably something like 15:1. If so...then you multiply the 6" by 1.5...which yields 9" and lies firmly within my forecasted amounts. The reason I go so high is that any further tick north would yield that result and I'm covering for that. That said, another 20 mile north jog would add another ten inches to these numbers...so everything is still open. A jog south...seems unlikely.


Let's give a shoutout to the NAM and other short-range models for predicting it right- the little models that could reign supreme tonight.