I'm afraid that the GFS has actually done something you rarely see- it's actually caved to the lowly NAM, which means that we're suddenly in very serious trouble in Connecticut. It's shifted 20-30 miles north again...and this time, it's too far...and so now those snowfall totals are quite possibly about to go through the roof. In fact...considering what most TV channels are forecasting...it may be nearly double that in the morning, and the Winter Weather Advisory will become a Blizzard Warning...just speechless.
As for totals, I have to be careful here because it is only one model run...however, if trends continue, then this is my new map I'm afraid...
What the GFS did was put out- taken literally, 6" of snow all the way to the 84 corridor...with a maximum of about one foot along the shoreline. The problem is that it assumes a 10:1 ratio, but it will actually be much higher than that- probably something like 15:1. If so...then you multiply the 6" by 1.5...which yields 9" and lies firmly within my forecasted amounts. The reason I go so high is that any further tick north would yield that result and I'm covering for that. That said, another 20 mile north jog would add another ten inches to these numbers...so everything is still open. A jog south...seems unlikely.
Let's give a shoutout to the NAM and other short-range models for predicting it right- the little models that could reign supreme tonight.
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