Happy MLK Day-
I'm back, and it's good to be home from NOLA- but I had a truly great time with many fantastic people and I got a tremendous amount of information out of the experience, and am very grateful that I went.
That said, the biggest storm threat of the season is in the offing for Friday afternoon, thorough the day on Saturday, and potentially even into Sunday morning. The models have been all over this the last few days, and amazingly consistent. Here are the last two GFS model runs for midday Saturday
The morning (top) and midnight (bottom) model projections of the GFS. Note the high pressure just to the north of Connecticut, eliminating mixing potential.
As you can see, they are nearly identical, with the newer model run (on top) actually being a bit more severe for us in New England. The snowfall totals this kind of a storm would produce, with heavy snow and wind falling for 30+ hours...would be massive. I will not mention numbers here because they are above and beyond anything we have ever experienced (except THAT blizzard- and it's fairly close) but what we should all be vigilant about, and I do not want to hype this, but the words of historic blizzard should be at least mentioned here, because models seem to strongly think this will be the case for FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. Granted things can change by then but...what a monster this could be.
Until we get there though, aside from a few scattered flurries or squalls that could coat the ground today in a few areas, the main headline of the week will be the cold weather- we're going to have a difficult time getting to 20 tomorrow...ouch...but that will just set the stage for what could be one for the ages this weekend.
While I was away...Somehow, that subtropical low in the central Atlantic became Tropical Storm...and then HURRICANE Alex in the Azores, becoming the earliest known forming hurricane in the Atlantic in a calendar year...and just the second ever (after a storm in 1938). Also noteworthy- it's just the second named storm ever...in any month...to form North of 30N and east of 30E (the other being 2005's Hurricane Vince- let's hope that this year doesn't turn out like that one, shall we?)
The next chance for >3" of snow is- Friday night (65-70% chance)- See notes above, as a historic snowstorm is possible in this timeframe
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