Alright everyone- it's Saturday, but that doesn't mean we catch a break in the weather world.
A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for all of Connecticut, with NOAA forecasting 10-14" statewide except the far SW corner, where they're going with 8-10". This forecast seems highly reasonable to me, and I'll combine both forecasts to allow for the wintry mix potential (especially on the shoreline), leaving me with a total of 8-14", which seems perfect for my forecast. Naturally, this number could waver in either direction, but it's probably more likely to go down than up here (due to mixing). The timing should be about midnight tomorrow night through all of Monday until about 8-9 PM. Super Bowl Parties should be alright, as of now, as long as you don't mind driving home in some light snow. Only an inch or maybe 2 will have fallen by midnight. The height of the storm comes between 3AM and noon Monday. I do believe all CT schools will be closed Monday.
Enjoy!
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Friday, January 30, 2015
Update- Monster Monday!
Good afternoon-
I just wanted to update everyone on the new models, as they are showing an increasing amount of snow on each model run. In fact, for the western half of the state or so, it's now a distinct possibility that most people west of Middlesex county get more than they did from Blizzard Colbie, but I'm not going to go there quite yet. What can I say? A very severe snowstorm is likely Sunday night and Monday. The bottom line is that Monday's travel plans will have to be put on hold, but here's the more important impact.
Those of you attending Super Bowl Parties should probably keep an eye open. The storm will likely have begun by the end of the game, and it could be coming down really hard. I wouldn't cancel my plans yet, but it's possible that you will be affected by this. I'll take my first amount stab tomorrow morning, but I reserve the right to delay that if models disagree. Winter Storm Watches are likely going up again tomorrow afternoon. That would make three storms of 6"+ in nine days, a truly remarkable feat to pull off here.
I just wanted to update everyone on the new models, as they are showing an increasing amount of snow on each model run. In fact, for the western half of the state or so, it's now a distinct possibility that most people west of Middlesex county get more than they did from Blizzard Colbie, but I'm not going to go there quite yet. What can I say? A very severe snowstorm is likely Sunday night and Monday. The bottom line is that Monday's travel plans will have to be put on hold, but here's the more important impact.
Those of you attending Super Bowl Parties should probably keep an eye open. The storm will likely have begun by the end of the game, and it could be coming down really hard. I wouldn't cancel my plans yet, but it's possible that you will be affected by this. I'll take my first amount stab tomorrow morning, but I reserve the right to delay that if models disagree. Winter Storm Watches are likely going up again tomorrow afternoon. That would make three storms of 6"+ in nine days, a truly remarkable feat to pull off here.
image credit: kaboodle.com
You may see him if the pattern holds- for what it's worth, next Thursday may keep us rolling- as might a week from Monday. This is quite a pattern!!
1/30- Big trouble for Monday
Happy Friday- welcome to the weekend!
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect until tomorrow morning
A WIND ADVISORY is in effect until 4 PM this evening
Today's snow is going to continue through the morning lightly. I have a dusting at my house in Wallingford, but more snow is expected to fall, and 1-3" of snow is likely before the system moves out to give Maine a blockbuster snowfall. The attention will then shift to Monday. This is a bit of an odd storm in the sense that it won't pass over the 40/70 benchmark, but it looks like it's far enough north to drop a large amount of snow on Connecticut. Six or more inches are very possible from this one, so be sure to keep your eye on it- Winter Storm Watches could be going up tomorrow afternoon. Beyond that, the weather looks nice and quiet right into mid February.
Today in weather history- January 30, 1772- Parts of Virginia and the capital are dumped with 3 feet of snow- a highly unusual event that far south. It only happens in New England about once a decade, so this is likely their hundred year storm (except perhaps in the mountains).
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect until tomorrow morning
A WIND ADVISORY is in effect until 4 PM this evening
Today's snow is going to continue through the morning lightly. I have a dusting at my house in Wallingford, but more snow is expected to fall, and 1-3" of snow is likely before the system moves out to give Maine a blockbuster snowfall. The attention will then shift to Monday. This is a bit of an odd storm in the sense that it won't pass over the 40/70 benchmark, but it looks like it's far enough north to drop a large amount of snow on Connecticut. Six or more inches are very possible from this one, so be sure to keep your eye on it- Winter Storm Watches could be going up tomorrow afternoon. Beyond that, the weather looks nice and quiet right into mid February.
Today in weather history- January 30, 1772- Parts of Virginia and the capital are dumped with 3 feet of snow- a highly unusual event that far south. It only happens in New England about once a decade, so this is likely their hundred year storm (except perhaps in the mountains).
Thursday, January 29, 2015
1/29- STORM WATCH- Let the model battles begin again in 3...2...1...
Good Thursday all-
Today is going to be a rather mundane day in the weather department, since there is really not much to discuss. Sure, it'll be cold (it's -3 in Danbury this morning), but that should warm up a fair bit today. Will we get to freezing though? I doubt it. Later tonight, snow moves in- it won't be much, maybe an inch or two- but that will still likely snarl up the roads a bit for the morning commute tomorrow. Saturday looks dry as well, but Sunday night into Monday does not.
The model debate now begins. The GFS and Canadian models are showing a rather major nor'easter (especially the CMC, which drops nearly a foot of the white stuff on Connecticut with strong wind), whereas the Euro shows a miss to the south. The trend has been more west, however, as all models were south yesterday. There is still a 1 in 4 chance of 4", so the storm watch remains another day. It's time to wait and see. I know plenty of people have parties on Sunday night for the Super Bowl, so this is a highly significant forecast. I'd keep an eye on it- the last thing you want is to be driving home in a big snowstorm! The next name on WFSB's name list is Darius, by the way.
Today in weather history- January 29, 1922- Somehow, the high temperature in LA manages to only get to 42!!! That is their lowest high temperature on record (unsurprisingly)
Today is going to be a rather mundane day in the weather department, since there is really not much to discuss. Sure, it'll be cold (it's -3 in Danbury this morning), but that should warm up a fair bit today. Will we get to freezing though? I doubt it. Later tonight, snow moves in- it won't be much, maybe an inch or two- but that will still likely snarl up the roads a bit for the morning commute tomorrow. Saturday looks dry as well, but Sunday night into Monday does not.
The model debate now begins. The GFS and Canadian models are showing a rather major nor'easter (especially the CMC, which drops nearly a foot of the white stuff on Connecticut with strong wind), whereas the Euro shows a miss to the south. The trend has been more west, however, as all models were south yesterday. There is still a 1 in 4 chance of 4", so the storm watch remains another day. It's time to wait and see. I know plenty of people have parties on Sunday night for the Super Bowl, so this is a highly significant forecast. I'd keep an eye on it- the last thing you want is to be driving home in a big snowstorm! The next name on WFSB's name list is Darius, by the way.
Today in weather history- January 29, 1922- Somehow, the high temperature in LA manages to only get to 42!!! That is their lowest high temperature on record (unsurprisingly)
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
1/28- STORM WATCH- Heading for more snow
Good Wednesday all-
Well, the jackpot Connecticut total goes to...Thompson! Congratulations on receiving 33.4" of snow!! We're all jealous of you! The total storm jackpot of 36" goes to...Auburn MA! Thus, we here in central Connecticut just barely missed out on the snow band of doom that clocked the region just west of Boston. My aunt lives in Sudbury (about 20 miles west of Boston) and she got 3'! Remember, the storm was forecasted to track 50 miles west. If it had done so, those totals would have been in CT. Anyhow, let's forecast when the next chance for snow is. It appears to be as soon as tomorrow night, but this won't be a big storm at all. In fact, most people will struggle to eek out 2" from this, though some towns probably will and get maybe 3" if everything is perfect. After that, the attention turns to the night of Super Bowl XLIX, as a major nor'easter tries to make its' way up the coast. At the moment, it looks like it's going to succeed, producing a major snowstorm for most of Southern New England. Granted, it's still a bit early (we're 5 days out, I'll predict totals on Friday!) but it does appear there is a 25% chance of 4"+. There may be some mixing issues with this one, especially on the shoreline, but there's quite a nice potential if it stays all snow. A worst case scenario would probably yield as much as 10-15", so it's worth watching. The biggest storm of the next 10 days, however, looks like next Thursday, as a coastal storm attempts to merge with a clipper and ride the coast. The upper end on that one could be monstrous, but we're way way way way too far out for any specifics, and will be until after the Monday storm. Thus, the storm watch is exclusively from 5 PM Sunday to noon Monday for now...We'll see what happens.
Until then, enjoy the snow left by the Blizzard of '15!
Today in weather history- January 28, 1986- The space shuttle Challenger explodes 73 seconds after liftoff, primarily due to the cold weather freezing the O-rings, preventing them from properly operating.
Well, the jackpot Connecticut total goes to...Thompson! Congratulations on receiving 33.4" of snow!! We're all jealous of you! The total storm jackpot of 36" goes to...Auburn MA! Thus, we here in central Connecticut just barely missed out on the snow band of doom that clocked the region just west of Boston. My aunt lives in Sudbury (about 20 miles west of Boston) and she got 3'! Remember, the storm was forecasted to track 50 miles west. If it had done so, those totals would have been in CT. Anyhow, let's forecast when the next chance for snow is. It appears to be as soon as tomorrow night, but this won't be a big storm at all. In fact, most people will struggle to eek out 2" from this, though some towns probably will and get maybe 3" if everything is perfect. After that, the attention turns to the night of Super Bowl XLIX, as a major nor'easter tries to make its' way up the coast. At the moment, it looks like it's going to succeed, producing a major snowstorm for most of Southern New England. Granted, it's still a bit early (we're 5 days out, I'll predict totals on Friday!) but it does appear there is a 25% chance of 4"+. There may be some mixing issues with this one, especially on the shoreline, but there's quite a nice potential if it stays all snow. A worst case scenario would probably yield as much as 10-15", so it's worth watching. The biggest storm of the next 10 days, however, looks like next Thursday, as a coastal storm attempts to merge with a clipper and ride the coast. The upper end on that one could be monstrous, but we're way way way way too far out for any specifics, and will be until after the Monday storm. Thus, the storm watch is exclusively from 5 PM Sunday to noon Monday for now...We'll see what happens.
Until then, enjoy the snow left by the Blizzard of '15!
Today in weather history- January 28, 1986- The space shuttle Challenger explodes 73 seconds after liftoff, primarily due to the cold weather freezing the O-rings, preventing them from properly operating.
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
1/27- Sorry, west CT
Good Tuesday all-
Well, first off, I want to say "Sorry" to my readers in the western third or so of CT, who have now completely busted. The storm took a last second jog to the east, causing the lack of snow in west CT. Now, however, my friends in east CT are saying "what bust"? That part of the state is getting clobbered, and will get monster totals in the 3ft area. Thus, I think a 20-40" forecast will actually verify quite nicely for me overall. The central part of the state will be much nearer to 20" than 40", which someone is probably going to achieve in east CT. The new forecast is 6-10" west of Waterbury, with 18-30" between there and about Middlesex, and about 20-40" east of there. All in all, I'm pretty satisfied with how the storm was forecasted. There was no telling where that band would set up, and it chose Putnam- which already has 27" this morning- and the rest of east CT. This will still be a remarkable storm, but the #1 records may survive at BDL and Bridgeport (though BDL's still may fall). Through the day, today, I'd say add about another 6-12" on what you have now, and that'll be your total. That puts Putnam with about 41", which I'd believe for sure is possible. It puts me in Wallingford (with about 14" now) at 21-28", which I'd believe as well.
Again, apologies for the bust west of Waterbury. The models had been whiffle waffling, but that was always, quite honestly, the part of the state I was most concerned about going low due to the extreme dropoff in temps.
Well, first off, I want to say "Sorry" to my readers in the western third or so of CT, who have now completely busted. The storm took a last second jog to the east, causing the lack of snow in west CT. Now, however, my friends in east CT are saying "what bust"? That part of the state is getting clobbered, and will get monster totals in the 3ft area. Thus, I think a 20-40" forecast will actually verify quite nicely for me overall. The central part of the state will be much nearer to 20" than 40", which someone is probably going to achieve in east CT. The new forecast is 6-10" west of Waterbury, with 18-30" between there and about Middlesex, and about 20-40" east of there. All in all, I'm pretty satisfied with how the storm was forecasted. There was no telling where that band would set up, and it chose Putnam- which already has 27" this morning- and the rest of east CT. This will still be a remarkable storm, but the #1 records may survive at BDL and Bridgeport (though BDL's still may fall). Through the day, today, I'd say add about another 6-12" on what you have now, and that'll be your total. That puts Putnam with about 41", which I'd believe for sure is possible. It puts me in Wallingford (with about 14" now) at 21-28", which I'd believe as well.
Again, apologies for the bust west of Waterbury. The models had been whiffle waffling, but that was always, quite honestly, the part of the state I was most concerned about going low due to the extreme dropoff in temps.
Monday, January 26, 2015
1/26- Monster blizzard on the way
Good Monday all-
A BLIZZARD WARNING is in effect for ALL OF CONNECTICUT- AN EXTREME RARITY. The forecast remains largely the same from last night. NOAA lowered their totals because they believed the 0z NAM...which is a very dangerous proposition. Steve's official forecast will remain 2 to 4 feet...with the highest totals under the mesoscale band of snow that will put 40"+ on the ground. This is what happened to Hamden last time...and it could very well happen in that general area once again...or anywhere east or west of there. If I had to guess, based on the last few years, it'll be dead center CT, Hamden/Wallingford/Meriden/New Haven. If so, then oh boy will this be a storm to remember (as if it isn't already). Remember that the 20-30" forecasted by the TV stations actually DO NOT INCLUDE THIS BAND. Also, it should be worth noting that most models approach 30" average statewide...but people are hesitant to forecast that because it's so unusual. I was too...last time...but did so anyway, and was correct as almost all of CT happened to get 2'+. This will happen again...so enjoy!!
Stay safe, be warm, talk to me with snowfall totals when I next blog tomorrow afternoon, with my snowfall total as of noon tomorrow. Let's shoot for 45", Wallingford!
Before each snowstorm now, I'll do these four categories. All amounts are realistic
I'd be disappointed if I get- 18"
I'd be satisfied if I get- 25"
I'd be thrilled if I get- 35"
I'd be stoked if I get- >40", beating 2013's storm.
All are equally possible, with slight more weight on those higher figures. I expect 25-30" for darn near everyone, with the band setup getting 3ft+!!!
A BLIZZARD WARNING is in effect for ALL OF CONNECTICUT- AN EXTREME RARITY. The forecast remains largely the same from last night. NOAA lowered their totals because they believed the 0z NAM...which is a very dangerous proposition. Steve's official forecast will remain 2 to 4 feet...with the highest totals under the mesoscale band of snow that will put 40"+ on the ground. This is what happened to Hamden last time...and it could very well happen in that general area once again...or anywhere east or west of there. If I had to guess, based on the last few years, it'll be dead center CT, Hamden/Wallingford/Meriden/New Haven. If so, then oh boy will this be a storm to remember (as if it isn't already). Remember that the 20-30" forecasted by the TV stations actually DO NOT INCLUDE THIS BAND. Also, it should be worth noting that most models approach 30" average statewide...but people are hesitant to forecast that because it's so unusual. I was too...last time...but did so anyway, and was correct as almost all of CT happened to get 2'+. This will happen again...so enjoy!!
Stay safe, be warm, talk to me with snowfall totals when I next blog tomorrow afternoon, with my snowfall total as of noon tomorrow. Let's shoot for 45", Wallingford!
Before each snowstorm now, I'll do these four categories. All amounts are realistic
I'd be disappointed if I get- 18"
I'd be satisfied if I get- 25"
I'd be thrilled if I get- 35"
I'd be stoked if I get- >40", beating 2013's storm.
All are equally possible, with slight more weight on those higher figures. I expect 25-30" for darn near everyone, with the band setup getting 3ft+!!!
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Final call for the Blizzard of '15
Good evening everyone-
Well, this is the final curtain here. No more model runs, no more stressful hoping, no more begging. This is coming, and coming big. If anything, totals have spiked during the day today because the models keep showing 2-3" of water...which with 10:1 ratios is 20-30" of snow. That's what most people on the news are going with. There is a big problem with this, however.
The actual ratios will likely be much, much higher than that...let's go with an 15:1 average, which is likely too low also (It'll probably be more like 18:1). That 2-3" of liquid suddenly becomes 30-45" of snow...which is more in line with my thinking. So, my final call-
EVERYONE IN CONNECTICUT SHOULD EXPECT 25-45" OF SNOW. SOMEONE MAY GET 50".
I never thought I'd give those numbers, but the situation certainly warrants it.
Well, this is the final curtain here. No more model runs, no more stressful hoping, no more begging. This is coming, and coming big. If anything, totals have spiked during the day today because the models keep showing 2-3" of water...which with 10:1 ratios is 20-30" of snow. That's what most people on the news are going with. There is a big problem with this, however.
The actual ratios will likely be much, much higher than that...let's go with an 15:1 average, which is likely too low also (It'll probably be more like 18:1). That 2-3" of liquid suddenly becomes 30-45" of snow...which is more in line with my thinking. So, my final call-
EVERYONE IN CONNECTICUT SHOULD EXPECT 25-45" OF SNOW. SOMEONE MAY GET 50".
I never thought I'd give those numbers, but the situation certainly warrants it.
Noon model run cycle (12z) cycle update
I just want to update here now that the new data is in.
And oooh boy is this interesting. The NAM and GFS came in forecasting 24-30+". While they had been doing this for some time, I wasn't sure I believed them. Now that it's unanimous 24 hours out...I have no choice but to do so...and therefore must raise my prediction, if you can believe it to 20-40" with someone getting 4ft in New England, maybe in CT, maybe RI/MA. Important to note that, after the Euro runs at 3:30, the model runs for this storm are over. The model runs thereafter will focus on the chance of (if you can believe it), yet another sizable nor'easter for Friday (That will NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS ONE...AND WILL BE FAR MORE LIKE BLAKE). That said, another 5-10" falling on top of 20-40" could cause a complete nightmare for snow removal. Beyond that, several more nor'easters are likely, with a threat every 3 days or so for the next month. By the end of February we may well be very close to the totals we saw in 2010-11...and be approaching 95-96. We should easily break the named winter storms record this year. We only need four more, and two are likely coming in the next five days!
And oooh boy is this interesting. The NAM and GFS came in forecasting 24-30+". While they had been doing this for some time, I wasn't sure I believed them. Now that it's unanimous 24 hours out...I have no choice but to do so...and therefore must raise my prediction, if you can believe it to 20-40" with someone getting 4ft in New England, maybe in CT, maybe RI/MA. Important to note that, after the Euro runs at 3:30, the model runs for this storm are over. The model runs thereafter will focus on the chance of (if you can believe it), yet another sizable nor'easter for Friday (That will NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS ONE...AND WILL BE FAR MORE LIKE BLAKE). That said, another 5-10" falling on top of 20-40" could cause a complete nightmare for snow removal. Beyond that, several more nor'easters are likely, with a threat every 3 days or so for the next month. By the end of February we may well be very close to the totals we saw in 2010-11...and be approaching 95-96. We should easily break the named winter storms record this year. We only need four more, and two are likely coming in the next five days!
NOAA Blizzard watch text
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.... CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-252300- /O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 953 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
(STEVE'S WORDS FOLLOW HERE)
THIS IS EXACTLY MY THOUGHTS AS WELL...WITH PERHAPS ONE LAST BUMP TO WIDESPREAD 15-30" SNOW TOTALS...SOMEONE IN CT IS GOING TO GET 3FT FROM THIS. 2013 HAS COMPANY JUST TWO YEARS AFTER IT WAS DEEMED A ONCE IN A LIFETIME STORM. UNBELIEVABLE!
1/25- SEVERE STORM WARNING- THE 'B' WORD!
Good morning everyone-
Well, you probably only awake to hear this once every three years or so. A BLIZZARD WATCH, not a Winter Storm Watch but a BLIZZARD WATCH has been issued for New Haven, Middlesex, and New London counties. NOAA starts by forecasting 12-18" of snow...which is probably too low at this time (though NOAA, in my experience, always starts on the low end then raises them). Regardless of whether we get that...or something like the 15-35" I'm forecasting...it's a ton of snow. Here we go. The storm begins tomorrow afternoon with some snow showers, then it really picks up overnight. I promise a snow day on Tuesday as blizzard conditions will be around all day- 35+mph wind & whiteout conditions, along with brutally heavy snow. This will last right through the evening, and then not end until around noon on WEDNESDAY. This is going to be a true epic snowstorm. This is the big one. The huge one. The biggest since 2/8/13 This is remarkable. BE READY for a true monster. Do your shopping today, milk, bread, eggs, etc. The forecast will not change. This one will last a lifetime.
Well, you probably only awake to hear this once every three years or so. A BLIZZARD WATCH, not a Winter Storm Watch but a BLIZZARD WATCH has been issued for New Haven, Middlesex, and New London counties. NOAA starts by forecasting 12-18" of snow...which is probably too low at this time (though NOAA, in my experience, always starts on the low end then raises them). Regardless of whether we get that...or something like the 15-35" I'm forecasting...it's a ton of snow. Here we go. The storm begins tomorrow afternoon with some snow showers, then it really picks up overnight. I promise a snow day on Tuesday as blizzard conditions will be around all day- 35+mph wind & whiteout conditions, along with brutally heavy snow. This will last right through the evening, and then not end until around noon on WEDNESDAY. This is going to be a true epic snowstorm. This is the big one. The huge one. The biggest since 2/8/13 This is remarkable. BE READY for a true monster. Do your shopping today, milk, bread, eggs, etc. The forecast will not change. This one will last a lifetime.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
SEVERE STORM WARNING (1ST IN BLOG HISTORY)- Who'd have thought this year we'd get a Blizz!?!
Alright, brace yourselves for the latest on what seems destined to be Blizzard Colbie/Juno.
When I bring up Feb. 2013, I always viewed it as the single storm of my life that would never possibly be approached, let alone topped. I never thought it was possible that I'd ever talk about a forecast like this again. Yet here we are. The models shifted west significantly enough to tell me that this will be a truly epic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Connecticut. The wind will be howling, 50+ mph gusts are very possible, as are several feet of snow. The 18z GFS brought in nearly double the amount the 12z did. It was around 18". Not a small amount, but not '13 worthy either. Why am I so concerned then? Because all model snowfall maps use a 10:1 ratio when converting rain to snow. This particular storm, it'll be so cold and fluffy the ratio will likely be 20:1 or so. Thus, you have to literally double the snowfall put out, thus 18" converts to 3 ft.
My early estimate, liable to go either way, then, is historic for me. It is going to be the highest snowfall numbers I have ever predicted for any location, including more than I did for '13...
I expect...
Wait for it...
Widespread totals of 25-45". Someone will likely be unlucky enough in New England to actually hit the half-century mark in snowfall.
This beats my previous record high of a 2-4' prediction by a smidge...and since this will be a blizzard of epic proportions, I'm issuing the first SEVERE STORM WARNING in the history of this blog. A severe storm, from here on out, will be defined as 18 or more inches of snow...0.75" more of ice....5 or more inches of rain....or a direct hit from a hurricane. These will be extreme, and in many cases life changing events. It's quite clear now that years from now, people will be talking about what they were doing on the fateful 27th of January, 2015. Enjoy it, remember the storm for this will be, truly, one for the ages. There are no words. I, for the first time in my meteorological life, am speechless.
When I bring up Feb. 2013, I always viewed it as the single storm of my life that would never possibly be approached, let alone topped. I never thought it was possible that I'd ever talk about a forecast like this again. Yet here we are. The models shifted west significantly enough to tell me that this will be a truly epic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Connecticut. The wind will be howling, 50+ mph gusts are very possible, as are several feet of snow. The 18z GFS brought in nearly double the amount the 12z did. It was around 18". Not a small amount, but not '13 worthy either. Why am I so concerned then? Because all model snowfall maps use a 10:1 ratio when converting rain to snow. This particular storm, it'll be so cold and fluffy the ratio will likely be 20:1 or so. Thus, you have to literally double the snowfall put out, thus 18" converts to 3 ft.
My early estimate, liable to go either way, then, is historic for me. It is going to be the highest snowfall numbers I have ever predicted for any location, including more than I did for '13...
I expect...
Wait for it...
Widespread totals of 25-45". Someone will likely be unlucky enough in New England to actually hit the half-century mark in snowfall.
This beats my previous record high of a 2-4' prediction by a smidge...and since this will be a blizzard of epic proportions, I'm issuing the first SEVERE STORM WARNING in the history of this blog. A severe storm, from here on out, will be defined as 18 or more inches of snow...0.75" more of ice....5 or more inches of rain....or a direct hit from a hurricane. These will be extreme, and in many cases life changing events. It's quite clear now that years from now, people will be talking about what they were doing on the fateful 27th of January, 2015. Enjoy it, remember the storm for this will be, truly, one for the ages. There are no words. I, for the first time in my meteorological life, am speechless.
The Great Nor'easter!
Alright, now that the 12z model runs have come in, let's talk about what to expect for the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe.
A major snowstorm with near-blizzard or blizzard conditions is highly likely during that time. Monster accumulations are very possible. It recently came out that the Euro's 50+" totals were overdone, but quite honestly that doesn't really matter. The storm will still be a blizzard that is highly memorable for everyone here in Connecticut. A full-out hard hitting nor'easter is on the way for sure...just how much is the question now. For now, I'll start with 20-40" and work from there...though significantly less is possible if the storm passes just to our east. The ol' yardstick may be on it's way out though. Someone might just beat what they got in 2013 here in CT. It's worth watching for sure. Be prepared for a full-fledged blizzard, as that is by far the most likely solution right now.
A major snowstorm with near-blizzard or blizzard conditions is highly likely during that time. Monster accumulations are very possible. It recently came out that the Euro's 50+" totals were overdone, but quite honestly that doesn't really matter. The storm will still be a blizzard that is highly memorable for everyone here in Connecticut. A full-out hard hitting nor'easter is on the way for sure...just how much is the question now. For now, I'll start with 20-40" and work from there...though significantly less is possible if the storm passes just to our east. The ol' yardstick may be on it's way out though. Someone might just beat what they got in 2013 here in CT. It's worth watching for sure. Be prepared for a full-fledged blizzard, as that is by far the most likely solution right now.
Uh oh...Tuesday...
Alright, I don't usually update mid day, but the situation here warrants it.
I'm afraid that the model runs for Tuesday have done what I feared in the morning- they caved to the Euro. That means, well, um...you probably don't want to hear this, but a snowstorm is very likely for Tuesday. This would be a much larger than the one we got today. Some models are keeping it around from late Monday night until mid-day Wednesday. If that's the case, and 1+" an hour snowfall rates...yeah you can see where this is going. I won't go all-out forecasting widespread 30+" at this time, as I'd be foolish to do that because that has happened twice in the last 127 years, but that's what we're looking at if the Euro/Nam are correct. The GFS is "whimpier" with only one to two feet statewide. (I'd probably go with 10-20" in a GFS scenario.
Either way, this is serious. This will be the biggest snowstorm, easily, since the Great Blizzard of 2013. To start off, I'll predict 15-30" statewide. This will likely be tweaked some, but it's far more likely to go up than down, if you can believe it. A small westward nudge on the GFS would cause me to say 2-4 ft statewide. This is going to be an incredible storm to watch. Be prepared. This is not a test. This is the biggest snowstorm since I began writing this blog.
Sorry for the bold text, but this is a VERY important and significant storm that will be very impactful on Connecticut on Tuesday. Expect at least 2 snow days this week and maybe more.
I'm afraid that the model runs for Tuesday have done what I feared in the morning- they caved to the Euro. That means, well, um...you probably don't want to hear this, but a snowstorm is very likely for Tuesday. This would be a much larger than the one we got today. Some models are keeping it around from late Monday night until mid-day Wednesday. If that's the case, and 1+" an hour snowfall rates...yeah you can see where this is going. I won't go all-out forecasting widespread 30+" at this time, as I'd be foolish to do that because that has happened twice in the last 127 years, but that's what we're looking at if the Euro/Nam are correct. The GFS is "whimpier" with only one to two feet statewide. (I'd probably go with 10-20" in a GFS scenario.
Either way, this is serious. This will be the biggest snowstorm, easily, since the Great Blizzard of 2013. To start off, I'll predict 15-30" statewide. This will likely be tweaked some, but it's far more likely to go up than down, if you can believe it. A small westward nudge on the GFS would cause me to say 2-4 ft statewide. This is going to be an incredible storm to watch. Be prepared. This is not a test. This is the biggest snowstorm since I began writing this blog.
Sorry for the bold text, but this is a VERY important and significant storm that will be very impactful on Connecticut on Tuesday. Expect at least 2 snow days this week and maybe more.
Updated snowfall figures
6" here in Wallingford at 3" an hour rates.
Thus, I must upgrade my 4-8" to 6-12" for New Haven & Fairfield counties, who appear to have jackpotted again, as they have so many times the last few winters.
Thus, I must upgrade my 4-8" to 6-12" for New Haven & Fairfield counties, who appear to have jackpotted again, as they have so many times the last few winters.
1/24- The return of the monster- Monday's threat returns with a vengeance
Good weekend all-
This post is to issue a STORM WATCH for MONDAY, NOT TODAY. The 0z Euro last night suddenly shifted it's track west and bombed the storm off the coast, dumping literally several feet of snow on Southern New England with snow totals resembling 2/8-2/9/13. Not saying that will happen but...well, if everything comes together, blizzard conditions and brutal snowfall are a distinct possibility suddenly for Monday. I was at Western Connecticut State University this week to start an internship, and Gary Lessor (whom I have a huge amount of respect for) was always bullish on the Monday storm, and I can see why. If this happens, we'd have a storm we'll be telling our grandkids about 50-60 years from now. I don't mean to alarm you, and I won't actually forecast this until the 12z models come in today. If there is some consensus of the Euro solution then we are looking at (don't freak out- this remains rather unlikely) 1-3 ft(!) statewide (with locally the dreaded 4-0 that Hamden got in 2013). Again, I don't want to alarm you, but it is not every day that you get a storm potential like this one could be if everything comes together. Greenland block- check. High pressure for arctic cold- check. Monster developing through phasing- check. Slow moving- check. Path near/over 40/70- Maybe. Thus, we seem to perhaps be on the brink of a historic nor'easter for MONDAY, NOT TODAY- THEY ARE TOTALLY SEPERATE STORMS- Monday's storm would be the 'C' named storm. Oddly, the last two storms to produce blizzard conditions statewide were both 'C' storms- 2006's Blizzard Carson and 2013's Blizzard Charlotte. This is worth watching. I will update sooner than usual due to the incredible potential this has.
Meanwhile, with the rain/snow line south of Long Island at the moment, I am fearful this is over-preforming itself. We'll find out!
My current snow in Wallingford- 2". I fear that I might be on my way to the higher end of the 4-8"!!
This post is to issue a STORM WATCH for MONDAY, NOT TODAY. The 0z Euro last night suddenly shifted it's track west and bombed the storm off the coast, dumping literally several feet of snow on Southern New England with snow totals resembling 2/8-2/9/13. Not saying that will happen but...well, if everything comes together, blizzard conditions and brutal snowfall are a distinct possibility suddenly for Monday. I was at Western Connecticut State University this week to start an internship, and Gary Lessor (whom I have a huge amount of respect for) was always bullish on the Monday storm, and I can see why. If this happens, we'd have a storm we'll be telling our grandkids about 50-60 years from now. I don't mean to alarm you, and I won't actually forecast this until the 12z models come in today. If there is some consensus of the Euro solution then we are looking at (don't freak out- this remains rather unlikely) 1-3 ft(!) statewide (with locally the dreaded 4-0 that Hamden got in 2013). Again, I don't want to alarm you, but it is not every day that you get a storm potential like this one could be if everything comes together. Greenland block- check. High pressure for arctic cold- check. Monster developing through phasing- check. Slow moving- check. Path near/over 40/70- Maybe. Thus, we seem to perhaps be on the brink of a historic nor'easter for MONDAY, NOT TODAY- THEY ARE TOTALLY SEPERATE STORMS- Monday's storm would be the 'C' named storm. Oddly, the last two storms to produce blizzard conditions statewide were both 'C' storms- 2006's Blizzard Carson and 2013's Blizzard Charlotte. This is worth watching. I will update sooner than usual due to the incredible potential this has.
Meanwhile, with the rain/snow line south of Long Island at the moment, I am fearful this is over-preforming itself. We'll find out!
My current snow in Wallingford- 2". I fear that I might be on my way to the higher end of the 4-8"!!
Friday, January 23, 2015
STORM WARNING- SEASON'S FIRST TRULY MAJOR SNOWSTORM
Good evening-
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all 4 northern counties and northern sections of Fairfield and New Haven county (In NH county, that's North Haven on up). Everyone else is under a Winter Weather Advisory except the extreme southeast portion of New London county. The snow is on the way for sure, and the models trended significantly colder through the day today, and that caused everyone to raise their snow totals- and most now match my 4-8" original prediction (pats self on back). Here's a look..
Snow breaks out after midnight tonight. It'll come down heavily (1+"/hr rates), and quickly accumulate. Most people will have a few inches when they wake up tomorrow morning. Between 9 and 2, some areas will mix with freezing rain, cutting down the snowfall*. After 2, the rain/snow line crashes back quickly to the shore, and adds an extra 2-3" perhaps on top of what falls in the morning. Thus, 4-8" still seems very reasonable, and I'll stick to my guns there. Monday's storm has trended way out to sea today, but the newer models may be trying to drag it back a ways...I'll keep watching it!
*There is one potential 'bust potential.' left in this forecast- if it stays snow, we'd go from 4-8" totals to 6-12" totals. This is not at all likely, and is probably only a 10% chance, but it would only need to be one degree colder than modeled to occur, so I can't write it off. I am very confident I won't bust low, however.
Regardless, enjoy Winter Storm Blake/Iola, and I will update with my snow totals tomorrow night. Now get a nice warm fire going and be ready for the flakes to fly- it's finally here.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all 4 northern counties and northern sections of Fairfield and New Haven county (In NH county, that's North Haven on up). Everyone else is under a Winter Weather Advisory except the extreme southeast portion of New London county. The snow is on the way for sure, and the models trended significantly colder through the day today, and that caused everyone to raise their snow totals- and most now match my 4-8" original prediction (pats self on back). Here's a look..
Snow breaks out after midnight tonight. It'll come down heavily (1+"/hr rates), and quickly accumulate. Most people will have a few inches when they wake up tomorrow morning. Between 9 and 2, some areas will mix with freezing rain, cutting down the snowfall*. After 2, the rain/snow line crashes back quickly to the shore, and adds an extra 2-3" perhaps on top of what falls in the morning. Thus, 4-8" still seems very reasonable, and I'll stick to my guns there. Monday's storm has trended way out to sea today, but the newer models may be trying to drag it back a ways...I'll keep watching it!
*There is one potential 'bust potential.' left in this forecast- if it stays snow, we'd go from 4-8" totals to 6-12" totals. This is not at all likely, and is probably only a 10% chance, but it would only need to be one degree colder than modeled to occur, so I can't write it off. I am very confident I won't bust low, however.
Regardless, enjoy Winter Storm Blake/Iola, and I will update with my snow totals tomorrow night. Now get a nice warm fire going and be ready for the flakes to fly- it's finally here.
1/23- Snow is coming...
Happy FRIDAY all!
Today is going to be fine, but I won't bore you with that. Obviously, today is about tomorrow, so let's get to it.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Hartford/Tolland/Windham counties, whereas everyone else has a Winter Weather Advisory...and I don't understand this, since they still give a 51% chance of 6+" of snow. Thus, why would you drop the Winter Storm Watch? Anyway, that's what it is.
I still expect 4-8" statewide with perhaps lighter amounts in the southeast due to extra mixing and there not being enough precip in the Litchfield hills. Snow should begin around 3-5 or so tomorrow morning and it's going to mix with sleet and freezing rain around noon, then flip back over to snow...we think. The models last night did come in quite a bit colder, and I'll be on the low end of snow if those are correct. If they aren't, then my 4-8" statewide should be fine. It wouldn't be much of a change anyway (if anything, it would only go to 5-10"- not much different really). Either way, despite there only being a Winter Weather Advisory, don't be fooled. Please do not drive tomorrow as heavy snow is likely, and I think totals should exceed four inches for most of Connecticut.
Monday's storm does not look particularly daunting at this time, but it was yesterday. I'm not writing it off yet for sure!
Thursday, January 22, 2015
1/22- Biggest snow event of season for Saturday
Good Thursday everyone-
The overnight models were pretty meh, with the exception of the GFS bringing a pure snowstorm back to New England, pretty much assuring some impact from this storm. The question for today is now going to be exactly how much we get. There's a few problems here, primarily with mixing and dry air in the general area. I still think most areas are going to do just fine for snow lovers, and that most will be very happy with the outcome since we haven't had anything pretty much all winter. It's still a bit early for amounts, but I'll start with a 4-8" baseline in central CT at the moment...with less both northwest (not enough precip) and southeast (wintry mix). The apparent trend on this thing is a bit dryer, but that is not exactly unexpected (the pieces were never really in place for a true monster). Additional things to watch is whether this is a very high end Winter Weather Advisory event or low end Winter Storm Warning event. I believe that since most people will be in the 6" range with some higher and some lower...we'll see Winter Storm Warnings, but the other wouldn't surprise me either.
The Weather Channel has named this system Winter Storm Iola. If WFSB (Channel 3) names it, it would be Blake. Unfortunately for them, they still have the storm totally out to sea with an inch in SE CT. Don't quite know what they're doing, as that option now appears totally off the table. Don't trust them right now. I assure you a decent snowstorm is on the way!
The overnight models were pretty meh, with the exception of the GFS bringing a pure snowstorm back to New England, pretty much assuring some impact from this storm. The question for today is now going to be exactly how much we get. There's a few problems here, primarily with mixing and dry air in the general area. I still think most areas are going to do just fine for snow lovers, and that most will be very happy with the outcome since we haven't had anything pretty much all winter. It's still a bit early for amounts, but I'll start with a 4-8" baseline in central CT at the moment...with less both northwest (not enough precip) and southeast (wintry mix). The apparent trend on this thing is a bit dryer, but that is not exactly unexpected (the pieces were never really in place for a true monster). Additional things to watch is whether this is a very high end Winter Weather Advisory event or low end Winter Storm Warning event. I believe that since most people will be in the 6" range with some higher and some lower...we'll see Winter Storm Warnings, but the other wouldn't surprise me either.
The Weather Channel has named this system Winter Storm Iola. If WFSB (Channel 3) names it, it would be Blake. Unfortunately for them, they still have the storm totally out to sea with an inch in SE CT. Don't quite know what they're doing, as that option now appears totally off the table. Don't trust them right now. I assure you a decent snowstorm is on the way!
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
1/21- The first major snowstorm?
Good Wednesday all-
Well, the snow is finally on the way. Firstly, tonight could include a coating to an inch of snow as a clipper system moves through. It's important to note that this clipper will rapidly intensify off the coast and probably come about 30-50 miles of being a large snowstorm for us. That shows just how close you can be without getting anything significant.
For now, though, the tables appear to be flipped for Saturday. Most computer models are agreeing on a large snowy nor'easter coming up the coast and passing perhaps either over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark. In such a scenario...depending on how close it comes to that fabled place, some areas could see the dreaded (or loved, depending on your point of view) double digit snowfall this weekend...especially since the Euro (which showed a lot of mixing yesterday) now shows all snow. The 6z GFS backed off significantly on the snowfall, but the 6z is not a run I put a lot of stock in (the models, for whatever reason, are far more reliable at 0z (midnight) and 12z (noon). Sunday looks alright for now, but another large snowstorm is quite possible Monday night and Tuesday. Let's get through the weekend storm first, however.
Well, the snow is finally on the way. Firstly, tonight could include a coating to an inch of snow as a clipper system moves through. It's important to note that this clipper will rapidly intensify off the coast and probably come about 30-50 miles of being a large snowstorm for us. That shows just how close you can be without getting anything significant.
For now, though, the tables appear to be flipped for Saturday. Most computer models are agreeing on a large snowy nor'easter coming up the coast and passing perhaps either over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark. In such a scenario...depending on how close it comes to that fabled place, some areas could see the dreaded (or loved, depending on your point of view) double digit snowfall this weekend...especially since the Euro (which showed a lot of mixing yesterday) now shows all snow. The 6z GFS backed off significantly on the snowfall, but the 6z is not a run I put a lot of stock in (the models, for whatever reason, are far more reliable at 0z (midnight) and 12z (noon). Sunday looks alright for now, but another large snowstorm is quite possible Monday night and Tuesday. Let's get through the weekend storm first, however.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
STORM WATCH IS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND...BIGGEST THREAT SO FAR OF WINTER
Well, just when you started to think we might just have a snowless winter, mother nature throws a curveball at you. Remember how I said that there would be an offshore storm on the weekend that was too far out to sea to do much to us? The models today have come 50 miles or so northwest today, and now appear to be agreeing on a major winter storm for Saturday. In the worst case scenario, six to twelve inches would be possible. It is also possible that mixed precipitation greatly limits precipitation, or that it misses entirely. The odds of 4+" of snow, however, are now far greater than 25%...and probably around 50-50. Thus, conditions certainly warrant a storm watch for the weekend. Here's my breakdown of the possibilities.
Best case scenario- Storm passes out to the SE with minimal impacts. During the course of the day, this went from the most likely to the least likely scenario, and it probably only has a 15% chance of occuring
Middle road scenarios- The most likely thing at the moment for the weekend is a primarily snow event with some mixing. In such a scenario, 4-8" of snow would fall statewide...but it would be lower than a worst case scenario due to sleet limiting accumulations.
Worst case scenario- The storm passes directly over the 40-70 benchmark. Such a scenario would produce 20-30 mph sustained winds, and up to a foot of snow would be possible anywhere in such a scenario.
By far, the greatest threat of mixing is southeast, and the biggest threat of one foot is north and west of 84.
The next name on WFSB's Winter Storm name list is Blake, and I suspect we've found him...
I'll update again in the AM.
Best case scenario- Storm passes out to the SE with minimal impacts. During the course of the day, this went from the most likely to the least likely scenario, and it probably only has a 15% chance of occuring
Middle road scenarios- The most likely thing at the moment for the weekend is a primarily snow event with some mixing. In such a scenario, 4-8" of snow would fall statewide...but it would be lower than a worst case scenario due to sleet limiting accumulations.
Worst case scenario- The storm passes directly over the 40-70 benchmark. Such a scenario would produce 20-30 mph sustained winds, and up to a foot of snow would be possible anywhere in such a scenario.
By far, the greatest threat of mixing is southeast, and the biggest threat of one foot is north and west of 84.
The next name on WFSB's Winter Storm name list is Blake, and I suspect we've found him...
I'll update again in the AM.
1/20- Watching the weekend
Good Tuesday all-
Well, this week is going to be a really boring weather week for most of southern New England. The only true event is going to be a round of light snow tomorrow afternoon or evening, and even that looks real questionable. The bigger story could be this weekend however, as a really powerful coastal storm develops. While the pattern itself isn't exactly favorable for a major storm, the European ensembles are literally dropping 10-20" of snow...so I don't want to totally ignore it since it's not too far away. Quite honestly, the odds of 4+" of snow are certainly less than 25%, but I will update tonight anyway because of the proximity of the storm. If models shift some 25 miles north or so, a major snowstorm would nail New England. For now though, only flurries should do it (unless you like the Euro ensembles- which many meteorologists do). Another storm threat exists early next week, but again the pattern is not overly favorable. After that though...that pattern is about to change for the better for snow lovers.
Today in weather history- January 20, 1978- A monster snowstorm breaks the all-time record snowfall at Boston's Logan Airport of 21 inches. Here in Connecticut, a changeover to rain was expected, but it never happened and so 1-2 feet of unexpected snow dropped on the area, with winds gusting up to 70mph on the shoreline. Oddly, the record in Boston would be broken a mere two weeks later...but more on that later in this segment!
Well, this week is going to be a really boring weather week for most of southern New England. The only true event is going to be a round of light snow tomorrow afternoon or evening, and even that looks real questionable. The bigger story could be this weekend however, as a really powerful coastal storm develops. While the pattern itself isn't exactly favorable for a major storm, the European ensembles are literally dropping 10-20" of snow...so I don't want to totally ignore it since it's not too far away. Quite honestly, the odds of 4+" of snow are certainly less than 25%, but I will update tonight anyway because of the proximity of the storm. If models shift some 25 miles north or so, a major snowstorm would nail New England. For now though, only flurries should do it (unless you like the Euro ensembles- which many meteorologists do). Another storm threat exists early next week, but again the pattern is not overly favorable. After that though...that pattern is about to change for the better for snow lovers.
Today in weather history- January 20, 1978- A monster snowstorm breaks the all-time record snowfall at Boston's Logan Airport of 21 inches. Here in Connecticut, a changeover to rain was expected, but it never happened and so 1-2 feet of unexpected snow dropped on the area, with winds gusting up to 70mph on the shoreline. Oddly, the record in Boston would be broken a mere two weeks later...but more on that later in this segment!
Monday, January 19, 2015
1/19- Icy!
Good Monday all-
Well, first things first, the storm watch is dropped, as there does not appear to be any significant storm threat anytime soon. The problem however is that a significant amount of ice remains on the roadways this morning after yesterday's unexpectedly severe ice storm, and since temps dropped below freezing overnight, it's just a real bad situation, so stay off the roads this morning until 11 or so if you can. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny day with highs in the 30s, which will repeat itself tomorrow. I do expect some light snow to be around on Wednesday, but there really is no appreciable snow threats anytime soon, nor is there anything too dramatic in terms of temps, so my post will be cut short here. Happy MLK day!
Today in weather history- January 19, 1786- Somehow, Hartford, CT drops all the way down to -24, the lowest recorded ever on a thermometer at that time. We're no stranger to below 0 temps here, but we are to ones that are that low!!
On another note, congrats to Patriots fans on their AFC championship. Enjoy the Super Bowl!
Well, first things first, the storm watch is dropped, as there does not appear to be any significant storm threat anytime soon. The problem however is that a significant amount of ice remains on the roadways this morning after yesterday's unexpectedly severe ice storm, and since temps dropped below freezing overnight, it's just a real bad situation, so stay off the roads this morning until 11 or so if you can. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny day with highs in the 30s, which will repeat itself tomorrow. I do expect some light snow to be around on Wednesday, but there really is no appreciable snow threats anytime soon, nor is there anything too dramatic in terms of temps, so my post will be cut short here. Happy MLK day!
Today in weather history- January 19, 1786- Somehow, Hartford, CT drops all the way down to -24, the lowest recorded ever on a thermometer at that time. We're no stranger to below 0 temps here, but we are to ones that are that low!!
On another note, congrats to Patriots fans on their AFC championship. Enjoy the Super Bowl!
Sunday, January 18, 2015
STORM WATCH
Good Sunday all-
Well, today, even though the storm watch is not for today, is worth blogging about because it's going to be absolutely miserable. This morning could feature some freezing drizzle, but that's just half the story. Around noon, more precip develops, and it could be freezing rain west of New Haven. Anything frozen, however, will quickly change over to plain rain, and we'll be dealing with a driving rainstorm later this afternoon with 1-2" of rain highly likely. Some thunder is also possible!
Anyway, the big storm timeframe now appears to be Thursday, but it's a long shot. I'd say the odds have now dropped below 25%, and are probably 21% or so. I'll keep the storm watch another day, especially since I don't trust the long range GFS as far as I can throw it (they recently upgraded it, but I think the new one might be even worse than the old one!). The Euro is too close for comfort as well (It's probably about 15 miles south of being a decent storm).
Today is a great day to curl up in front of the fire and watch TV, play board games, or anything else inside. Outside plans today should be cancelled for sure!
Well, today, even though the storm watch is not for today, is worth blogging about because it's going to be absolutely miserable. This morning could feature some freezing drizzle, but that's just half the story. Around noon, more precip develops, and it could be freezing rain west of New Haven. Anything frozen, however, will quickly change over to plain rain, and we'll be dealing with a driving rainstorm later this afternoon with 1-2" of rain highly likely. Some thunder is also possible!
Anyway, the big storm timeframe now appears to be Thursday, but it's a long shot. I'd say the odds have now dropped below 25%, and are probably 21% or so. I'll keep the storm watch another day, especially since I don't trust the long range GFS as far as I can throw it (they recently upgraded it, but I think the new one might be even worse than the old one!). The Euro is too close for comfort as well (It's probably about 15 miles south of being a decent storm).
Today is a great day to curl up in front of the fire and watch TV, play board games, or anything else inside. Outside plans today should be cancelled for sure!
Saturday, January 17, 2015
STORM WATCH UPDATE
Good Saturday all-
The threat for Wednesday now appears to be rather minimal, maybe a 1-3" type deal. That said, there now appears to be another threat around Friday/Saturday...and thus I'll keep the storm watch up for then. Snow lovers should not be too excited however...because I think that one is a it of a long shot, but certainly not impossible. Naturally, it's so far out that I won't even bother discussing it except saying the potential is there...so it's worth keeping it in the very back of your mind.
Enjoy the first part of your weekend!
The threat for Wednesday now appears to be rather minimal, maybe a 1-3" type deal. That said, there now appears to be another threat around Friday/Saturday...and thus I'll keep the storm watch up for then. Snow lovers should not be too excited however...because I think that one is a it of a long shot, but certainly not impossible. Naturally, it's so far out that I won't even bother discussing it except saying the potential is there...so it's worth keeping it in the very back of your mind.
Enjoy the first part of your weekend!
Friday, January 16, 2015
STORM WATCH update
Good evening-
Here's your update- but quite frankly not much has changed. I can say with pretty high confidence there will be snow Wednesday. What I can't say with any confidence is how much...1-3" of snow is just as likely as nothing or 5-10", and so I won't even discuss my instinct here. What I can say is that I think there will be an accumulating snow Wednesday, but how much remains to be seen. It all depends on how quickly a clipper system develops off the coast...with the GFS saying it doesn't at all...and the Euro showing about a 3-6" event as it goes a bit too far east for a truly major snowstorm. Too tough for any final call until Monday for sure.
Sunday's storm looks a bit less icy and more rainy at the moment. Fortunately, Monday is a holiday anyway, so most people have the day off even if a flash freeze does occur.
Here's your update- but quite frankly not much has changed. I can say with pretty high confidence there will be snow Wednesday. What I can't say with any confidence is how much...1-3" of snow is just as likely as nothing or 5-10", and so I won't even discuss my instinct here. What I can say is that I think there will be an accumulating snow Wednesday, but how much remains to be seen. It all depends on how quickly a clipper system develops off the coast...with the GFS saying it doesn't at all...and the Euro showing about a 3-6" event as it goes a bit too far east for a truly major snowstorm. Too tough for any final call until Monday for sure.
Sunday's storm looks a bit less icy and more rainy at the moment. Fortunately, Monday is a holiday anyway, so most people have the day off even if a flash freeze does occur.
1/16- A turn to flakes soon?- STORM WATCH
HAPPY FRIDAY- LONG WEEKEND FOR MANY!!
Today and tomorrow, the weather will be thoroughly boring for me, which is good news for you! Sure it'll be cold, but that's about all I can complain about. Sunny skies will prevail, and the wind should be rather weak. The big trouble spot of the upcoming few days is Sunday, which will include rain turning to an icy mix overnight, snarling up those who do have work on Monday morning (which likely isn't very many people at all). Beyond that, Tuesday looks good but then...
By mid-week next week, we run into trouble potentially. All eyes turn to a clipper system that appears to track to our south...that leads to a large question mark for us. These type of clippers have the tendency to rapidly intensify once they get off the Jersey coast, and the GFS is suggesting a rather large snowstorm for the middle of next week (Along the order of 5-10" statewide), while the Euro takes too long for the storm to intensify...but then brings a more classic nor'easter a few days after that. That said, I believe there is about a 20-25% chance of a 4+ inch snowfall Wednesday...thus I'll be conservative and storm watch it even though it may be a bit excessive at the current time. That means you'll get evening updates and an update on the weekend mornings...which I certainly feel the situation warrants at this time. Additionally, most computer models have been showing a shift to very snowy weather around a week from today...and lasting through most of February.
Today in weather history- January 16, 2009- Maine sets its' all time record low temperature in the northwestern part of Aroostook County, breaking an 84-year record set in Van Buren of -48 in 1925
Today and tomorrow, the weather will be thoroughly boring for me, which is good news for you! Sure it'll be cold, but that's about all I can complain about. Sunny skies will prevail, and the wind should be rather weak. The big trouble spot of the upcoming few days is Sunday, which will include rain turning to an icy mix overnight, snarling up those who do have work on Monday morning (which likely isn't very many people at all). Beyond that, Tuesday looks good but then...
By mid-week next week, we run into trouble potentially. All eyes turn to a clipper system that appears to track to our south...that leads to a large question mark for us. These type of clippers have the tendency to rapidly intensify once they get off the Jersey coast, and the GFS is suggesting a rather large snowstorm for the middle of next week (Along the order of 5-10" statewide), while the Euro takes too long for the storm to intensify...but then brings a more classic nor'easter a few days after that. That said, I believe there is about a 20-25% chance of a 4+ inch snowfall Wednesday...thus I'll be conservative and storm watch it even though it may be a bit excessive at the current time. That means you'll get evening updates and an update on the weekend mornings...which I certainly feel the situation warrants at this time. Additionally, most computer models have been showing a shift to very snowy weather around a week from today...and lasting through most of February.
Today in weather history- January 16, 2009- Maine sets its' all time record low temperature in the northwestern part of Aroostook County, breaking an 84-year record set in Van Buren of -48 in 1925
Thursday, January 15, 2015
1/15- Quiet till Sunday
Good Thursday all-
Today is going to be a rather nice day, considering what we've been experiencing recently. Temps may even reach the freezing point today, as we continue to warm up. Tomorrow through Sunday should be fairly similar to today before an interesting cold front moves through Sunday night bringing what could be a rather heavy wintry mix that could really snarl up the roads for the Monday AM commute, which is certainly worth watching as that's not exactly the best way to start the week! After that, the weather clears and is very cold.
Beyond that, however, around 10-14 days out, there are indications that the infamous "Greenland Block" will set up, and, should that occur, the true snowstorms will finally come to southern New England. Sometime late next week is the first chance for this, around Friday. For what it's worth, by the way, this is far from the least snowy winter on record. Through this date in 2007-08, there was literally no snow the entire winter through this date. It doesn't feel like it, but there really is still 2.5 months left in the snowy season, so there still is plenty of time for the big one.
Today in weather history- January 15, 1780- Somehow, New York Harbor manages to completely freeze over beginning today for 5 weeks, and the ice was so thick that the colonists were able to transport heavy cannons over it!
Today is going to be a rather nice day, considering what we've been experiencing recently. Temps may even reach the freezing point today, as we continue to warm up. Tomorrow through Sunday should be fairly similar to today before an interesting cold front moves through Sunday night bringing what could be a rather heavy wintry mix that could really snarl up the roads for the Monday AM commute, which is certainly worth watching as that's not exactly the best way to start the week! After that, the weather clears and is very cold.
Beyond that, however, around 10-14 days out, there are indications that the infamous "Greenland Block" will set up, and, should that occur, the true snowstorms will finally come to southern New England. Sometime late next week is the first chance for this, around Friday. For what it's worth, by the way, this is far from the least snowy winter on record. Through this date in 2007-08, there was literally no snow the entire winter through this date. It doesn't feel like it, but there really is still 2.5 months left in the snowy season, so there still is plenty of time for the big one.
Today in weather history- January 15, 1780- Somehow, New York Harbor manages to completely freeze over beginning today for 5 weeks, and the ice was so thick that the colonists were able to transport heavy cannons over it!
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
1/14- Not much to discuss
Good Wednesday all-
Well, there is really only one noteworthy event to discuss over the next week, and it's five days out, as the day effected would be Monday afternoon. The next few days will be very similar to what we've been experiencing the last few days. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens, mostly sunny skies- you all expect that kind of weather in January. By the weekend though, a weak warm front passes through dry Friday night, but it sends the temperature into the 40s for Sunday, but a cold front comes through Monday...but things then get interesting.
As the cold front moves off the coast, some computer models have been indicating the development of a low pressure center along that front, which then moves up the coast. The current computer models indicate that it will track too close to the coast to be a snowstorm but...it's not exactly a big cushion, as the track is over Cape Cod at the moment on the GFS, and the Euro is out to sea, and there would be a very close call with the arrival of the cold air, a significant snowstorm, it's safe to say, has a less than 25% chance of occurring, and thus there is no need to issue a storm watch at this time, since the odds strongly favor a large amount of rain (and there could be as much as 0.5-0.75" of rain in the worst case scenario).
In any event, enjoy your Wednesday without any fear of the weather.
Today in weather history- January 14, 1882- Remember the other day how I was talking about snow in San Diego- the second biggest southern CA snowfall...well here's the biggest for you. Once again, San Diego only gets a trace...but San Bernadino gets 15 inches, and parts of the Baja Peninsula, yes the part of Mexico on the west coast that got crushed by Hurricane Odile this year, get 20 inches of snow. I'd love to see the weather map for this day, but naturally that would be hard to find, since weather data was scarce 133 years ago!
Well, there is really only one noteworthy event to discuss over the next week, and it's five days out, as the day effected would be Monday afternoon. The next few days will be very similar to what we've been experiencing the last few days. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens, mostly sunny skies- you all expect that kind of weather in January. By the weekend though, a weak warm front passes through dry Friday night, but it sends the temperature into the 40s for Sunday, but a cold front comes through Monday...but things then get interesting.
As the cold front moves off the coast, some computer models have been indicating the development of a low pressure center along that front, which then moves up the coast. The current computer models indicate that it will track too close to the coast to be a snowstorm but...it's not exactly a big cushion, as the track is over Cape Cod at the moment on the GFS, and the Euro is out to sea, and there would be a very close call with the arrival of the cold air, a significant snowstorm, it's safe to say, has a less than 25% chance of occurring, and thus there is no need to issue a storm watch at this time, since the odds strongly favor a large amount of rain (and there could be as much as 0.5-0.75" of rain in the worst case scenario).
In any event, enjoy your Wednesday without any fear of the weather.
Today in weather history- January 14, 1882- Remember the other day how I was talking about snow in San Diego- the second biggest southern CA snowfall...well here's the biggest for you. Once again, San Diego only gets a trace...but San Bernadino gets 15 inches, and parts of the Baja Peninsula, yes the part of Mexico on the west coast that got crushed by Hurricane Odile this year, get 20 inches of snow. I'd love to see the weather map for this day, but naturally that would be hard to find, since weather data was scarce 133 years ago!
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
1/13- Ice now, nothing after
Good Tuesday all-
Well, there is really not very much to discuss at all, since the only concern is black ice this morning, as all that water froze overnight, so be very careful!! Otherwise, there literally is no chance of precipitation of any kind until maybe Monday, when a coastal low develops, but looks to stay out to sea for now (though it's way too early to make that final call). The big story will then be the cold tonight in the single digits. Otherwise, expect sunny skies and temps between 25 and 40 until further notice!
Today in weather history- January 13, 2000- For the first time in a whopping 305 days, snow finally falls in Boston, ending the record snowless drought. Interestingly, Boston, despite it's more northern location, actually receives less annual snow than BDL, primarily because of the proximity to Boston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean.
You know when I have this short an update, nothing much is happening...enjoy it!
Well, there is really not very much to discuss at all, since the only concern is black ice this morning, as all that water froze overnight, so be very careful!! Otherwise, there literally is no chance of precipitation of any kind until maybe Monday, when a coastal low develops, but looks to stay out to sea for now (though it's way too early to make that final call). The big story will then be the cold tonight in the single digits. Otherwise, expect sunny skies and temps between 25 and 40 until further notice!
Today in weather history- January 13, 2000- For the first time in a whopping 305 days, snow finally falls in Boston, ending the record snowless drought. Interestingly, Boston, despite it's more northern location, actually receives less annual snow than BDL, primarily because of the proximity to Boston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean.
You know when I have this short an update, nothing much is happening...enjoy it!
Monday, January 12, 2015
1/12- ICY
Good Monday all-
Well, unfortunately most schools are just delayed this morning instead of closed, which I had predicted on my facebook page. Why? The temps here on the Wallingford/North Haven line are already way above freezing (I've got 34), so it's just plain rain. Thus, a delay is almost undoubtedly the correct call. That, my friends, is why it's a great idea for superintendents to wait until morning to make a decision- weather is fickle, especially when it comes to the freezing line, which is often the single most difficult thing to predict in winter storms. Moving forward, there is literally no precipitation in sight anytime in the next week, as the late week storm scoots out to sea! Thus, today is the one hump, and then we'll be home free (though it'll still be seasonably cold)
I won't bore you with a daily forecast. I'll say this- Sunny and highs from 25-35...for each of the next 6 days.
Today in weather history- January 12, 2011- Winter Storm Benedict pounds Connecticut, and becomes the single biggest snowstorm on record at BDL, which still stands today. A maximum total of 30 inches falls in North Haven and Wallingford (which was a nearly unfathomable amount at the time- before Blizzard Charlotte!), causing schools to close for two days.
Well, unfortunately most schools are just delayed this morning instead of closed, which I had predicted on my facebook page. Why? The temps here on the Wallingford/North Haven line are already way above freezing (I've got 34), so it's just plain rain. Thus, a delay is almost undoubtedly the correct call. That, my friends, is why it's a great idea for superintendents to wait until morning to make a decision- weather is fickle, especially when it comes to the freezing line, which is often the single most difficult thing to predict in winter storms. Moving forward, there is literally no precipitation in sight anytime in the next week, as the late week storm scoots out to sea! Thus, today is the one hump, and then we'll be home free (though it'll still be seasonably cold)
I won't bore you with a daily forecast. I'll say this- Sunny and highs from 25-35...for each of the next 6 days.
Today in weather history- January 12, 2011- Winter Storm Benedict pounds Connecticut, and becomes the single biggest snowstorm on record at BDL, which still stands today. A maximum total of 30 inches falls in North Haven and Wallingford (which was a nearly unfathomable amount at the time- before Blizzard Charlotte!), causing schools to close for two days.
Friday, January 9, 2015
1/9- Snow Day for most
Happy FRIDAY everyone- and the first day of the weekend for most of the area, as the majority of school districts in Connecticut are closed.
What happened? Well, nothing too unexpected in terms of the weather itself. I thought that schools would be delayed this morning, but didn't think it would be necessary to close, but I was incorrect because the timing of the snow was just perfect, and the delay would have actually caused busses to drive in the height of the storm. Thus, I believe that closing schools was very likely the right call for most of our area. My apologies, however, to the readers in New Haven...tough to not get anything from this one. Overall, I still expect 1-4" of snow for everyone, with far more people near the 1" than the 4".
Anyway, there really is no forecast change for next week, and there may be several more snow days coming up (Tuesday is likely to be a snow day at the moment, and I'm certainly watching Thursday afternoon and Friday!)
Today in weather history- January 9, 1949- Somehow, someway, a trace of snow falls in San Diego, the only time this has ever happened in recorded history.
Also, January 9, 2000- It does not snow in Houghton, MI...for the first time since November 17!!!! That's fifty-three consecutive days with snow!!
What happened? Well, nothing too unexpected in terms of the weather itself. I thought that schools would be delayed this morning, but didn't think it would be necessary to close, but I was incorrect because the timing of the snow was just perfect, and the delay would have actually caused busses to drive in the height of the storm. Thus, I believe that closing schools was very likely the right call for most of our area. My apologies, however, to the readers in New Haven...tough to not get anything from this one. Overall, I still expect 1-4" of snow for everyone, with far more people near the 1" than the 4".
Anyway, there really is no forecast change for next week, and there may be several more snow days coming up (Tuesday is likely to be a snow day at the moment, and I'm certainly watching Thursday afternoon and Friday!)
Today in weather history- January 9, 1949- Somehow, someway, a trace of snow falls in San Diego, the only time this has ever happened in recorded history.
Also, January 9, 2000- It does not snow in Houghton, MI...for the first time since November 17!!!! That's fifty-three consecutive days with snow!!
Thursday, January 8, 2015
1/8- Insane Cold
Good Thursday all-
Well, my house made it down to -4 this morning, which is pretty rare in this region and certainly is the coldest weather we've experienced this year. Now that we're through the brutal cold, let's focus on an accumulating snow tomorrow in association with a clipper system. I think that, whatever you got on Monday, you can double that or so (1-3" statewide seems about right at the moment). The storm will come in the morning hours, so there is a 40% chance of getting a school delay tomorrow. Moving forward, the weekend looks dry, while next week looks rather snowy- worth keeping an eye on for sure. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes from yesterday, and everything seems on track (Highs in the teens today and twenties until Monday or so).
Today in weather history- January 8, 2015- Today's cold is severe enough to merit a 'weather history' segment of its' own here, and I won't take away it's glory. I can't remember the last time we had 100+ school delays because of the cold and wind chills between -15 and -20. As odd as it is to say, enjoy this as we may not experience it again for a few good years.
Well, my house made it down to -4 this morning, which is pretty rare in this region and certainly is the coldest weather we've experienced this year. Now that we're through the brutal cold, let's focus on an accumulating snow tomorrow in association with a clipper system. I think that, whatever you got on Monday, you can double that or so (1-3" statewide seems about right at the moment). The storm will come in the morning hours, so there is a 40% chance of getting a school delay tomorrow. Moving forward, the weekend looks dry, while next week looks rather snowy- worth keeping an eye on for sure. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes from yesterday, and everything seems on track (Highs in the teens today and twenties until Monday or so).
Today in weather history- January 8, 2015- Today's cold is severe enough to merit a 'weather history' segment of its' own here, and I won't take away it's glory. I can't remember the last time we had 100+ school delays because of the cold and wind chills between -15 and -20. As odd as it is to say, enjoy this as we may not experience it again for a few good years.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
What the snow?
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT has been issued for heavy snow squalls that could accumulate to as much as an inch or so if you get under them for long enough. Sorry for not noting this possibility earlier- it was there- but it's far more widespread than I thought it would be.
1/8- Brr, brr, brr
Good Wednesday all-
Well, all I can say is yikes. A rare WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued for everyone in Connecticut, as temps tonight will drop to between +4 and -11...with winds blowing north at 25 mph with 40 mph gusts. That means wind chill values of around -20. That's really, really cold. In terms of precipitation, the best chance of precip is Friday, when a clipper system moves through with light snow accumulation possible. Sometime next week, there are a few lows developing that could become coastal storms, but they're way too far off for me to tell you anything more.
Today in weather history- January 7, 1973- In a truly remarkable event, 4 inches of freezing rain falls and accumulates in Atlanta, GA, knocking out power to 300,000 people (in some cases for weeks) and closing schools for a significant amount of time. Can you imagine 4 inches of freezing rain? That is brutal, remember that we consider 0.5" of freezing rain enough to be disastrous, so imagine 8 times that!!
Well, all I can say is yikes. A rare WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued for everyone in Connecticut, as temps tonight will drop to between +4 and -11...with winds blowing north at 25 mph with 40 mph gusts. That means wind chill values of around -20. That's really, really cold. In terms of precipitation, the best chance of precip is Friday, when a clipper system moves through with light snow accumulation possible. Sometime next week, there are a few lows developing that could become coastal storms, but they're way too far off for me to tell you anything more.
Today in weather history- January 7, 1973- In a truly remarkable event, 4 inches of freezing rain falls and accumulates in Atlanta, GA, knocking out power to 300,000 people (in some cases for weeks) and closing schools for a significant amount of time. Can you imagine 4 inches of freezing rain? That is brutal, remember that we consider 0.5" of freezing rain enough to be disastrous, so imagine 8 times that!!
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
1/6- Some Snow
Good Tuesday all-
An extreme rarity has occurred- a Wind Chill Watch has been issued for the 4 northern counties for Wednesday night, and I suspect it'll be expanded to everyone else as well. To get through that, though, we're going to be dealing with a bit of some light snow today as a clipper along with an arctic front moves through. Some light accumulation on the order of a coating to 2 inches is possible, and whatever we get today is going to stick around. Tomorrow itself looks fine, but tomorrow night the temperature plummets down to near or just below 0 and the winds begin blowing 20 mph sustained with gusts as high as 40 out of the north. The end result? Wind Chill values on Thursday morning could be between -25 and -30. YIKES!!!! After that, some more light snow with another clipper is possible Friday, and then a lot of snow is possible Monday/Tuesday with a nor'easter, but that is way too far out to even discuss at this time.
Today in weather history- January 6, 1996- A massive blizzard strikes the northeast, dropping several feet of snow. The highest snowfall totals in our area was 33 inches in the Litchfield hills, but parts of West Virginia somehow managed to get 48 inches of snow, or 8 inches more than the hardest hit areas in 2013's Blizzard Charlotte. Yikes!! Hartford's official snowfall measurement from this one? A rather measly 18.2 inches, not even in the top 5 all time (Interestingly, it likely was until we got 3 of the top 5 snowstorms in the last decade- the Blizzard of '06 (#2), 2011's Winter Storm Benedict (#1), and 2013's Blizzard Charlotte (#3) ). Yes, Charlotte, despite being Connecticut's biggest snowstorm in over a century, somewhat missed Hartford, causing them to miss out on their record by several inches...unlucky for them
An extreme rarity has occurred- a Wind Chill Watch has been issued for the 4 northern counties for Wednesday night, and I suspect it'll be expanded to everyone else as well. To get through that, though, we're going to be dealing with a bit of some light snow today as a clipper along with an arctic front moves through. Some light accumulation on the order of a coating to 2 inches is possible, and whatever we get today is going to stick around. Tomorrow itself looks fine, but tomorrow night the temperature plummets down to near or just below 0 and the winds begin blowing 20 mph sustained with gusts as high as 40 out of the north. The end result? Wind Chill values on Thursday morning could be between -25 and -30. YIKES!!!! After that, some more light snow with another clipper is possible Friday, and then a lot of snow is possible Monday/Tuesday with a nor'easter, but that is way too far out to even discuss at this time.
Today in weather history- January 6, 1996- A massive blizzard strikes the northeast, dropping several feet of snow. The highest snowfall totals in our area was 33 inches in the Litchfield hills, but parts of West Virginia somehow managed to get 48 inches of snow, or 8 inches more than the hardest hit areas in 2013's Blizzard Charlotte. Yikes!! Hartford's official snowfall measurement from this one? A rather measly 18.2 inches, not even in the top 5 all time (Interestingly, it likely was until we got 3 of the top 5 snowstorms in the last decade- the Blizzard of '06 (#2), 2011's Winter Storm Benedict (#1), and 2013's Blizzard Charlotte (#3) ). Yes, Charlotte, despite being Connecticut's biggest snowstorm in over a century, somewhat missed Hartford, causing them to miss out on their record by several inches...unlucky for them
Monday, January 5, 2015
1/5- Odd forecast change
Good Monday all-
A WIND ADVISORY is issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Windham Counties.
It already appears that the forecast for tomorrow is quickly becoming a bit easier, as the models are now showing far less accumulation than they were yesterday. Thus, only 1-2" of snow is likely for everyone...and even that may be a bit generous, if new models are accurate. The problem? A different clipper is coming for Thursday night and Friday...and it may cause the 2-4" snowfall I was forecasting for tomorrow. If anyone is wondering, the next chance for a truly significant snowfall appears to be around Sunday/Monday next week.
The week ahead-
Today- Sunny, much colder than yesterday. Highs in the low 30s.
Tomorrow- Light snow developing with nothing to an inch or two of accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s.
Wednesday- Ice cold, absolutely frigid temps begin. Highs in the low 20s
Thursday- Perhaps the single coldest experience we've had in several years, if not our lifetimes. Lows near or below 0, with strong wind. Wind chill values could approach -25 or -30. BUNDLE UP!!! Highs near 12 or 13.
Friday- Snow possible on the order of 1-3". Temps a bit warmer in the mid 20s.
Saturday- Increasing clouds, temps in the 30s
Sunday- Watching a nor'easter for the afternoon or evening. Highs in the 30s.
Today in weather history- January 5, 1835- Somehow, New Haven drops to an actual air temperature of -23, which has to be their all time record low. For some reason, I'm a bit suspicious of that number, since it's nearly impossible to get it that low on the shoreline. Maybe it included the wind chill? If so, it'll likely be colder on Thursday.
A WIND ADVISORY is issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Windham Counties.
It already appears that the forecast for tomorrow is quickly becoming a bit easier, as the models are now showing far less accumulation than they were yesterday. Thus, only 1-2" of snow is likely for everyone...and even that may be a bit generous, if new models are accurate. The problem? A different clipper is coming for Thursday night and Friday...and it may cause the 2-4" snowfall I was forecasting for tomorrow. If anyone is wondering, the next chance for a truly significant snowfall appears to be around Sunday/Monday next week.
The week ahead-
Today- Sunny, much colder than yesterday. Highs in the low 30s.
Tomorrow- Light snow developing with nothing to an inch or two of accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s.
Wednesday- Ice cold, absolutely frigid temps begin. Highs in the low 20s
Thursday- Perhaps the single coldest experience we've had in several years, if not our lifetimes. Lows near or below 0, with strong wind. Wind chill values could approach -25 or -30. BUNDLE UP!!! Highs near 12 or 13.
Friday- Snow possible on the order of 1-3". Temps a bit warmer in the mid 20s.
Saturday- Increasing clouds, temps in the 30s
Sunday- Watching a nor'easter for the afternoon or evening. Highs in the 30s.
Today in weather history- January 5, 1835- Somehow, New Haven drops to an actual air temperature of -23, which has to be their all time record low. For some reason, I'm a bit suspicious of that number, since it's nearly impossible to get it that low on the shoreline. Maybe it included the wind chill? If so, it'll likely be colder on Thursday.
Sunday, January 4, 2015
That was interesting- my apologies!
First off, let me say DO NOT GO ON THE ROADS THIS MORNING- THE TEMPERATURE NEVER ROSE ABOVE FREEZING LAST NIGHT AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND, AND FREEZING RAIN IS STILL FALLING (At least at my house in Wallingford- I'm not leaving the house today).
Now that that's out of the way, as a meteorologist, the next thing to do is say "Yeah, that wasn't right", and proceed onwards to figuring out "Why did this happen". The answer is simple- the cold air that was in place over us yesterday was so strong that the warm air simply rose above it, which is lucky because it melted the snowflakes (we are actually somewhat lucky this didn't turn into a major snowstorm instead, simply because of the cold air's strength), yet the surface was below freezing due to a process called "cold air damming", which means the warm air simply can't mix down. Thus, we got an unusual event last night- an inside runner that produced a pretty darn significant ice event for us here in CT. The focus will now shift to Tuesday's clipper and a nor'easter around this time next week, but there's no need to issue a storm watch at this time for either, Tuesday's because there likely won't be enough snow, and Sunday because it's too far out for any certainty whatsoever.
Again, my apologies for screwing this one up. It happens to all of us, but I prefer to be more accurate. It's really quite unfortunate this didn't happen during the school week, as I feel my school district would probably be closed if it did.
Now that that's out of the way, as a meteorologist, the next thing to do is say "Yeah, that wasn't right", and proceed onwards to figuring out "Why did this happen". The answer is simple- the cold air that was in place over us yesterday was so strong that the warm air simply rose above it, which is lucky because it melted the snowflakes (we are actually somewhat lucky this didn't turn into a major snowstorm instead, simply because of the cold air's strength), yet the surface was below freezing due to a process called "cold air damming", which means the warm air simply can't mix down. Thus, we got an unusual event last night- an inside runner that produced a pretty darn significant ice event for us here in CT. The focus will now shift to Tuesday's clipper and a nor'easter around this time next week, but there's no need to issue a storm watch at this time for either, Tuesday's because there likely won't be enough snow, and Sunday because it's too far out for any certainty whatsoever.
Again, my apologies for screwing this one up. It happens to all of us, but I prefer to be more accurate. It's really quite unfortunate this didn't happen during the school week, as I feel my school district would probably be closed if it did.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
1/3- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Alright- no changes to announce, really, just keep it slow this PM for the icy mix on the way. The best news though is that the storm should only be producing scattered showers and temps in the 60s! tomorrow. Unfortunately, by this time next week, with be experiencing highs in the mid-teens, and lows near or below 0! Winter is here everyone- just a month later than usual. Still watching the snow threat Tuesday that could produce 1-3 or 2-4", and am leaning towards the lower amounts at the moment.
Friday, January 2, 2015
1/2- Finally, here comes winter
Happy FRIDAY everyone- we made it! (Although many people probably wish it wasn't Friday this time ;) )
Well, there really is not much change in the forecast whatsoever from last night. The general 1-4" snowfall should do for tomorrow, but I think the storm is coming a bit earlier (It may start as early as 4-5), and I think most people will end up on the low end of that snowfall range. I am far more concerned about the freezing rain, which should start around 6 and continue most of Saturday night, especially in the hills of northwestern New Haven County (Wolcott-Middlebury-Naugatuck) and the Litchfield hills. The storm will then transition to rain, and ruin everyone's Sunday with torrential downpours at times. Yuck!
Tuesday's storm is really going to all come down to how strong the storm gets off the coast. Right now, it shouldn't be too severe, with maybe 2-4" or 3-6" for most people according to the GFS, and 1-3" on the Euro. I have a more detailed look last night, and I stand by what I said then, so check out my old blog post from last evening for a closer look. Regardless of what happens, the end of next week looks positively frigid, with temps in the teens and low 20s as highs and lows comfortably in the single digits...yikes!
Today in weather history- January 2, 2014- In a highly unusual event, Winter Storm Bethany drops significant snows over our region, with 5-10" in most of the region, with Guilford and Milford among the highest totals. Why is this unusual? Because temperatures were near zero throughout the storm, causing this amount to fall with very little precipitation involved (In the meteorological world, we call this QPF).
Well, there really is not much change in the forecast whatsoever from last night. The general 1-4" snowfall should do for tomorrow, but I think the storm is coming a bit earlier (It may start as early as 4-5), and I think most people will end up on the low end of that snowfall range. I am far more concerned about the freezing rain, which should start around 6 and continue most of Saturday night, especially in the hills of northwestern New Haven County (Wolcott-Middlebury-Naugatuck) and the Litchfield hills. The storm will then transition to rain, and ruin everyone's Sunday with torrential downpours at times. Yuck!
Tuesday's storm is really going to all come down to how strong the storm gets off the coast. Right now, it shouldn't be too severe, with maybe 2-4" or 3-6" for most people according to the GFS, and 1-3" on the Euro. I have a more detailed look last night, and I stand by what I said then, so check out my old blog post from last evening for a closer look. Regardless of what happens, the end of next week looks positively frigid, with temps in the teens and low 20s as highs and lows comfortably in the single digits...yikes!
Today in weather history- January 2, 2014- In a highly unusual event, Winter Storm Bethany drops significant snows over our region, with 5-10" in most of the region, with Guilford and Milford among the highest totals. Why is this unusual? Because temperatures were near zero throughout the storm, causing this amount to fall with very little precipitation involved (In the meteorological world, we call this QPF).
Thursday, January 1, 2015
STORM UPDATES
Good evening-
I hope the first day of 2015 was rewarding for everyone and that you started the new year off on a good note, but mother nature has some wrenches coming our way for the first week of the year.
There are two significant storms possible in the next week.
First is Saturday night and Sunday. The storm will move in between 4-6 PM Saturday with a burst of heavy snow, as temps will be as cold as they are now (in the 20s). Eventually, this will turn to sleet and freezing rain for a time. Based on the new model runs, I think 1-4" should do for most of the region, with some areas getting little snow but a bunch of sleet. The attention then shifts to just south of here, as (this is new today) a secondary low develops, but it's far too weak to do anything significant overall except deflect the wind direction. That is very important in this type of storm. Why? Because an easterly wind is not nearly as warm as a southerly one...and the end result could be a severe inland ice storm if everything plays out badly, as as much as 0.25" of ice is possible in the worst case scenario (which is more than anyone in Connecticut has gotten in a good five years or so). Either way, Sunday it'll simply pour, so any accumulation will melt away, but the cost is losing a day of the weekend, as Sunday is a total washout.
The other trouble spot appears to be Tuesday and early Wednesday. A classic Alberta Clipper will race towards our region, bringing 2-4" of widespread snowfall. These things typically happen with any wintertime clipper, and there can be as many as 4-6 of these each year. There's a few red flags with this one, however....first, a second low may develop and try to absorb the clipper off the coast of New England. Additionally, the water temperature is very, very warm...and that's worth thinking about as well. If this occurs just so....then it could be a situation similar to 2/8-2/9 2013, but I wouldn't be too worried just yet, since everything would have to fall into place just so for it too be anything except a 2-4" snowfall. It's important to watch closely, though, since if models go just a tick different it could be much much higher than that, and I can't really see it going lower (since Clippers are actually rather easy to forecast).
The bottom line is- we can't say much more than this with any certainty. I've told you all I can for now, so I'll see you tomorrow. For those of you wondering, by the way, here are the GFS maps from the same computer model runs today and from 2/4/13 (the same distance)
Above- The 12z GFS from 2/3/13, 5 days before snow
The current 18z GFS, valid as of tonight 1/1/15.
You can see a bit of my concern here, as if you can paint a picture of the previous few top runs, you can see a rather similar evolution. What I want people to get out of this (for now, I understand it's confusing if you aren't used to them!!) is the relatively similar location of the lines (they're isobars, but you don't need to know that nor what they mean), and the similar storm evolutions (green is precipitation, not necessarily rain)
I hope I didn't get you confused by the above pictures. I promise you it's not my intent. What I want to show is how similar yet somewhat different the pattern is (or was modeled to be) around the same time before the storm of our lives, as compared to what it is now. I'll do this throughout the year, as it may well show you just how tough it is to nail a forecast (and you'd be surprised at how often we get patterns not too dissimilar, it's just that everything came together exactly as it needed to that one time in 125 years, which appears to be the average return period for that kind of storm.) This is also to do the comparison I get asked to make pretty much every time a big storm comes- how does it compare to the Great Blizzard of 2013? With any luck, you can draw conclusions as well as read mine :). Does all of this mean such a storm won't happen again in our lives? Of course not. Nothing is guaranteed in weather. Does it mean it's unlikely? Absolutely. Don't hold your breath for the next one- if you do the math out, it should be in about 2137.
I hope the first day of 2015 was rewarding for everyone and that you started the new year off on a good note, but mother nature has some wrenches coming our way for the first week of the year.
There are two significant storms possible in the next week.
First is Saturday night and Sunday. The storm will move in between 4-6 PM Saturday with a burst of heavy snow, as temps will be as cold as they are now (in the 20s). Eventually, this will turn to sleet and freezing rain for a time. Based on the new model runs, I think 1-4" should do for most of the region, with some areas getting little snow but a bunch of sleet. The attention then shifts to just south of here, as (this is new today) a secondary low develops, but it's far too weak to do anything significant overall except deflect the wind direction. That is very important in this type of storm. Why? Because an easterly wind is not nearly as warm as a southerly one...and the end result could be a severe inland ice storm if everything plays out badly, as as much as 0.25" of ice is possible in the worst case scenario (which is more than anyone in Connecticut has gotten in a good five years or so). Either way, Sunday it'll simply pour, so any accumulation will melt away, but the cost is losing a day of the weekend, as Sunday is a total washout.
The other trouble spot appears to be Tuesday and early Wednesday. A classic Alberta Clipper will race towards our region, bringing 2-4" of widespread snowfall. These things typically happen with any wintertime clipper, and there can be as many as 4-6 of these each year. There's a few red flags with this one, however....first, a second low may develop and try to absorb the clipper off the coast of New England. Additionally, the water temperature is very, very warm...and that's worth thinking about as well. If this occurs just so....then it could be a situation similar to 2/8-2/9 2013, but I wouldn't be too worried just yet, since everything would have to fall into place just so for it too be anything except a 2-4" snowfall. It's important to watch closely, though, since if models go just a tick different it could be much much higher than that, and I can't really see it going lower (since Clippers are actually rather easy to forecast).
The bottom line is- we can't say much more than this with any certainty. I've told you all I can for now, so I'll see you tomorrow. For those of you wondering, by the way, here are the GFS maps from the same computer model runs today and from 2/4/13 (the same distance)
You can see a bit of my concern here, as if you can paint a picture of the previous few top runs, you can see a rather similar evolution. What I want people to get out of this (for now, I understand it's confusing if you aren't used to them!!) is the relatively similar location of the lines (they're isobars, but you don't need to know that nor what they mean), and the similar storm evolutions (green is precipitation, not necessarily rain)
I hope I didn't get you confused by the above pictures. I promise you it's not my intent. What I want to show is how similar yet somewhat different the pattern is (or was modeled to be) around the same time before the storm of our lives, as compared to what it is now. I'll do this throughout the year, as it may well show you just how tough it is to nail a forecast (and you'd be surprised at how often we get patterns not too dissimilar, it's just that everything came together exactly as it needed to that one time in 125 years, which appears to be the average return period for that kind of storm.) This is also to do the comparison I get asked to make pretty much every time a big storm comes- how does it compare to the Great Blizzard of 2013? With any luck, you can draw conclusions as well as read mine :). Does all of this mean such a storm won't happen again in our lives? Of course not. Nothing is guaranteed in weather. Does it mean it's unlikely? Absolutely. Don't hold your breath for the next one- if you do the math out, it should be in about 2137.
1/1- January starts cold, wet, and snowy
Good Thursday all-
Happy 2015!! May it produce exciting weather events for me to blog about!
Today is going to be a very, very cold day much like the last two with temps again struggling to reach the low 30s. The same goes for tomorrow and Saturday, but we'll likely be on a slight warming trend until then. Saturday night, heavy snow will develop over the state, but it will likely change over very quickly on the shoreline to rain, but 2-5" of snow are possible inland before it changes over to freezing rain- ouch- and then regular rain as the temps soar to the 50s on Sunday.Beyond that, the temps fall like a rock, setting the stage for a very strong clipper system to move through on Tuesday bringing a moderate to heavy snowfall for everyone. An early estimation would be a 3-6" type deal, but it's very early and lots could change, but I doubt it'll get lower simply because it'll be so cold it's impossible for it to be anything except snow. How cold? I doubt temps will reach 30 from Tuesday until at least the weekend after next.
Today in weather history- January 1, 1985- Lower Michigan is clobbered by a severe ice storm that drops, incredibly, one inch of freezing rain on the region, causing numerous downed trees and power lines, and kills 3 people, injures 8 more, and causing a total of $50 million in damage.
Happy 2015!! May it produce exciting weather events for me to blog about!
Today is going to be a very, very cold day much like the last two with temps again struggling to reach the low 30s. The same goes for tomorrow and Saturday, but we'll likely be on a slight warming trend until then. Saturday night, heavy snow will develop over the state, but it will likely change over very quickly on the shoreline to rain, but 2-5" of snow are possible inland before it changes over to freezing rain- ouch- and then regular rain as the temps soar to the 50s on Sunday.Beyond that, the temps fall like a rock, setting the stage for a very strong clipper system to move through on Tuesday bringing a moderate to heavy snowfall for everyone. An early estimation would be a 3-6" type deal, but it's very early and lots could change, but I doubt it'll get lower simply because it'll be so cold it's impossible for it to be anything except snow. How cold? I doubt temps will reach 30 from Tuesday until at least the weekend after next.
Today in weather history- January 1, 1985- Lower Michigan is clobbered by a severe ice storm that drops, incredibly, one inch of freezing rain on the region, causing numerous downed trees and power lines, and kills 3 people, injures 8 more, and causing a total of $50 million in damage.
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