Good evening-
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all 4 northern counties and northern sections of Fairfield and New Haven county (In NH county, that's North Haven on up). Everyone else is under a Winter Weather Advisory except the extreme southeast portion of New London county. The snow is on the way for sure, and the models trended significantly colder through the day today, and that caused everyone to raise their snow totals- and most now match my 4-8" original prediction (pats self on back). Here's a look..
Snow breaks out after midnight tonight. It'll come down heavily (1+"/hr rates), and quickly accumulate. Most people will have a few inches when they wake up tomorrow morning. Between 9 and 2, some areas will mix with freezing rain, cutting down the snowfall*. After 2, the rain/snow line crashes back quickly to the shore, and adds an extra 2-3" perhaps on top of what falls in the morning. Thus, 4-8" still seems very reasonable, and I'll stick to my guns there. Monday's storm has trended way out to sea today, but the newer models may be trying to drag it back a ways...I'll keep watching it!
*There is one potential 'bust potential.' left in this forecast- if it stays snow, we'd go from 4-8" totals to 6-12" totals. This is not at all likely, and is probably only a 10% chance, but it would only need to be one degree colder than modeled to occur, so I can't write it off. I am very confident I won't bust low, however.
Regardless, enjoy Winter Storm Blake/Iola, and I will update with my snow totals tomorrow night. Now get a nice warm fire going and be ready for the flakes to fly- it's finally here.
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