Sunday, January 25, 2015

Noon model run cycle (12z) cycle update

I just want to update here now that the new data is in.

And oooh boy is this interesting. The NAM and GFS came in forecasting 24-30+". While they had been doing this for some time, I wasn't sure I believed them. Now that it's unanimous 24 hours out...I have no choice but to do so...and therefore must raise my prediction, if you can believe it to 20-40" with someone getting 4ft in New England, maybe in CT, maybe RI/MA. Important to note that, after the Euro runs at 3:30, the model runs for this storm are over. The model runs thereafter will focus on the chance of (if you can believe it), yet another sizable nor'easter for Friday (That will NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS ONE...AND WILL BE FAR MORE LIKE BLAKE). That said, another 5-10" falling on top of 20-40" could cause a complete nightmare for snow removal. Beyond that, several more nor'easters are likely, with a threat every 3 days or so for the next month. By the end of February we may well be very close to the totals we saw in 2010-11...and be approaching 95-96. We should easily break the named winter storms record this year. We only need four more, and two are likely coming in the next five days!

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