Alright, brace yourselves for the latest on what seems destined to be Blizzard Colbie/Juno.
When I bring up Feb. 2013, I always viewed it as the single storm of my life that would never possibly be approached, let alone topped. I never thought it was possible that I'd ever talk about a forecast like this again. Yet here we are. The models shifted west significantly enough to tell me that this will be a truly epic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Connecticut. The wind will be howling, 50+ mph gusts are very possible, as are several feet of snow. The 18z GFS brought in nearly double the amount the 12z did. It was around 18". Not a small amount, but not '13 worthy either. Why am I so concerned then? Because all model snowfall maps use a 10:1 ratio when converting rain to snow. This particular storm, it'll be so cold and fluffy the ratio will likely be 20:1 or so. Thus, you have to literally double the snowfall put out, thus 18" converts to 3 ft.
My early estimate, liable to go either way, then, is historic for me. It is going to be the highest snowfall numbers I have ever predicted for any location, including more than I did for '13...
I expect...
Wait for it...
Widespread totals of 25-45". Someone will likely be unlucky enough in New England to actually hit the half-century mark in snowfall.
This beats my previous record high of a 2-4' prediction by a smidge...and since this will be a blizzard of epic proportions, I'm issuing the first SEVERE STORM WARNING in the history of this blog. A severe storm, from here on out, will be defined as 18 or more inches of snow...0.75" more of ice....5 or more inches of rain....or a direct hit from a hurricane. These will be extreme, and in many cases life changing events. It's quite clear now that years from now, people will be talking about what they were doing on the fateful 27th of January, 2015. Enjoy it, remember the storm for this will be, truly, one for the ages. There are no words. I, for the first time in my meteorological life, am speechless.
No comments:
Post a Comment