Well, just when you started to think we might just have a snowless winter, mother nature throws a curveball at you. Remember how I said that there would be an offshore storm on the weekend that was too far out to sea to do much to us? The models today have come 50 miles or so northwest today, and now appear to be agreeing on a major winter storm for Saturday. In the worst case scenario, six to twelve inches would be possible. It is also possible that mixed precipitation greatly limits precipitation, or that it misses entirely. The odds of 4+" of snow, however, are now far greater than 25%...and probably around 50-50. Thus, conditions certainly warrant a storm watch for the weekend. Here's my breakdown of the possibilities.
Best case scenario- Storm passes out to the SE with minimal impacts. During the course of the day, this went from the most likely to the least likely scenario, and it probably only has a 15% chance of occuring
Middle road scenarios- The most likely thing at the moment for the weekend is a primarily snow event with some mixing. In such a scenario, 4-8" of snow would fall statewide...but it would be lower than a worst case scenario due to sleet limiting accumulations.
Worst case scenario- The storm passes directly over the 40-70 benchmark. Such a scenario would produce 20-30 mph sustained winds, and up to a foot of snow would be possible anywhere in such a scenario.
By far, the greatest threat of mixing is southeast, and the biggest threat of one foot is north and west of 84.
The next name on WFSB's Winter Storm name list is Blake, and I suspect we've found him...
I'll update again in the AM.
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