Saturday, January 24, 2015

1/24- The return of the monster- Monday's threat returns with a vengeance

Good weekend all-

This post is to issue a STORM WATCH for MONDAY, NOT TODAY. The 0z Euro last night suddenly shifted it's track west and bombed the storm off the coast, dumping literally several feet of snow on Southern New England with snow totals resembling 2/8-2/9/13. Not saying that will happen but...well, if everything comes together, blizzard conditions and brutal snowfall are a distinct possibility suddenly for Monday. I was at Western Connecticut State University this week to start an internship, and Gary Lessor (whom I have a huge amount of respect for) was always bullish on the Monday storm, and I can see why. If this happens, we'd have a storm we'll be telling our grandkids about 50-60 years from now. I don't mean to alarm you, and I won't actually forecast this until the 12z models come in today. If there is some consensus of the Euro solution then we are looking at (don't freak out- this remains rather unlikely) 1-3 ft(!) statewide (with locally the dreaded 4-0 that Hamden got in 2013). Again, I don't want to alarm you, but it is not every day that you get a storm potential like this one could be if everything comes together. Greenland block- check. High pressure for arctic cold- check. Monster developing through phasing- check. Slow moving- check. Path near/over 40/70- Maybe. Thus, we seem to perhaps be on the brink of a historic nor'easter for MONDAY, NOT TODAY- THEY ARE TOTALLY SEPERATE STORMS- Monday's storm would be the 'C' named storm. Oddly, the last two storms to produce blizzard conditions statewide were both 'C' storms- 2006's Blizzard Carson and 2013's Blizzard Charlotte. This is worth watching. I will update sooner than usual due to the incredible potential this has.

Meanwhile, with the rain/snow line south of Long Island at the moment, I am fearful this is over-preforming itself. We'll find out!

My current snow in Wallingford- 2". I fear that I might be on my way to the higher end of the 4-8"!!

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