Good Thursday everyone-
The overnight models were pretty meh, with the exception of the GFS bringing a pure snowstorm back to New England, pretty much assuring some impact from this storm. The question for today is now going to be exactly how much we get. There's a few problems here, primarily with mixing and dry air in the general area. I still think most areas are going to do just fine for snow lovers, and that most will be very happy with the outcome since we haven't had anything pretty much all winter. It's still a bit early for amounts, but I'll start with a 4-8" baseline in central CT at the moment...with less both northwest (not enough precip) and southeast (wintry mix). The apparent trend on this thing is a bit dryer, but that is not exactly unexpected (the pieces were never really in place for a true monster). Additional things to watch is whether this is a very high end Winter Weather Advisory event or low end Winter Storm Warning event. I believe that since most people will be in the 6" range with some higher and some lower...we'll see Winter Storm Warnings, but the other wouldn't surprise me either.
The Weather Channel has named this system Winter Storm Iola. If WFSB (Channel 3) names it, it would be Blake. Unfortunately for them, they still have the storm totally out to sea with an inch in SE CT. Don't quite know what they're doing, as that option now appears totally off the table. Don't trust them right now. I assure you a decent snowstorm is on the way!
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