12/23- STORM WATCH- Monday Mayhem?

Good Wednesday all-

Today, Christmas Eve Eve, is going to be a real soaker. First things first, a DENSE FOG ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut, and there is absolutely good reason as a warm front is making it through New England, and rain will be increasing overnight and it's going to pour all afternoon and night, with possibly even the dreaded December thunderstorm!!! When all is done 1" of rain is expected. The weekend looks seriously messy with rain likely at times both Saturday and Sunday as a warm front moves through, and then strangely backs through again and brings in cold air for Monday./

Monday night could be a major problem for Connecticut and all of New England. A storm is moving in but...cold air is in place at the surface, but as the storm is an inside runner, the upper air will warm too warm for snow. The end result has the *potential* of being a significant ice event for Connecticut, especially the colder areas along and north of 84. As much as .5-.75" of ice could be possible in the worst scenario in those regions, which includes redevelopment off the coast locking in cold surface air (the GFS shows this today, which is very alarming). Although that is unlikely...I can't altogether rule it out- a more likely scenario would be about 0.25-0.5" ice statewide (excepting the immediate shoreline). Granted, things can and will change, but the Tuesday morning commute could be extremely messy to say the least.

Most schools are already closed next week, but those few who are open have a 75% chance of a delay, and a 50-50 chance of closing at this time.

The next chance for a major winter storm is- Monday night (40%)- by far the biggest threat we've had this season, this could be a serious problem for Tuesday morning.

You can clearly see why a STORM WATCH is required for this.

I am still watching the time around New Years', but the threat for Tuesday is more important at the moment.

Today in weather history- December 23, 1811- A major tragedy occurs as a monster snowstorm drops a foot of snow on Long Island, sinking a large number of ships and killing entire crews on many of them. That's what happens when forecasts are almost non-existent as they were 200 years ago.